Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2013

[hoang51]

Wow, I think the mad rush today with the high volume is due to some shorts covering and some chasing buyers. I'm going to guess that we will head into the $180s before we see a heavy pull back. This stock really wants to head to $200...

 

[farzyness]

I feel qualified to answer this as I'm 25 and went through a similar decision in 2012. I sold AAPL at $600 (on the way up to 700) to fund my down-payment (20% down). Let's just say I have no regrets

Since I got a good deal on my place and home values are up 10% where I live. My home-equity has doubled in the past year.

If you run the math, it's hard to beat building home-equity.

P.S. - I'd recommend stretching for the 15 year mortgage. And put 20% down so you don't need to pay the couple hundred bucks a month PMI robbery.

Thanks for this. I'm curious to see if I could stretch for a 15 year mortgage. Will it give me that big of an upper hand vs. a 30 year, specially with interest rates being relatively competitive vs. previous years?

And I totally agree with home-equity being one of the best forms of investment. However I'm running the risk that TSLA might be better than that

Maybe I'll wait for it to hit $200, cash out on earnings, and play with house money until 2020. That way I have exposure to both and I'm not completely upset that I sold all my positions.

 

[hoang51]

Everytime I tried to make some money on short swings, I'd end up buying back higher. Since $48, I just add and add stock on the dips. Not selling until Model E.

This is true for me too ever since I took a position with TSLA. I tried to time a dip buying but I usually miss it. But I won't give up trying.

 

[farzyness]

Whatever info you will get, please do remember one thing, and that is that it will always be your own decision (whatever your decide to do)!!!

Ask yourself:
How much risk are you willing to take?
How much certainty do you want?
Are you willing to bet the farm?
How much more can it go further up?
How much can you "predict"?
How much do you believe?
How much further are you willing to go (without knowing what the future is going to be)?

My friend, it's all up to yourself. But I can tell you one thing, and that is that people are betting the farm. Some are even betting other people's farms as well. It's an epic story, and it sure is very exiting, I can tell you that.

Do you want to know my prediction?
Tesla Motors will be bigger than Google or Apple by 2020.

That 2020 year time frame is where I'm the most excited about, and I want some sort of exposure to that. I think it's pretty important for me to be a home-owner in the next 6-12 months as I think I'm reaching a sweet spot in cash available vs. home prices and interest rates. And if I play it smartly enough, I could have exposure to both. But yes, I think TSLA will be one of the biggest, if not the biggest company in 5-10 years time. Can it get here now?

 

[MarkH]

Little tid bit. Over the weekend, I just spoke to an attorney and he said his wife is clamoring for the Model S after hearing about the safety rating and wants to go solar... he knew about Tesla because he knows me but his wife never heard of it. I suspect this is happening across the nation.

Yeah that's the Volvo safety demographic that Tesla owns now.

IMO TSLA will reach 80% of GM by EOY. Insane? Yes. April-Now gains? Also insane.

Another doubling to $340 by EOY.

$300 Kickstarter-type emotional investment + $40 rational value = $340

 

[Ocelot]

I did the same, sold at 85 and re-bought at 95. Decided to just enjoy the run since then and wait till it's around $300

did the same, but twice! sold in 30's, bought in 50's, sold in 90's bought back in 110's. i THINK i have learned what to do now. set it and forget it.

 

[sub]

Selling covered calls IS the definition of giving up some upside potential. Do not chase it, is my advise.
I sold Jan14 $165 covered calls, if I buy them back at a loss, it's like giving back $9 of profit right now.
If you wait until they expire, your shares are called away (sold) at the strike price, and you keep the premium.
Trying to buy them back when they are in the money won't get you anywhere... At least that's how I see it.
In the event of a pull back, you might still be able to close out the covered calls for less than you sold them for, so don't panic.

I was implying that the shares could be replaced if you had the cash to do so, buy them at the strike and hold them until the calls expire. If the shares are called away, you didn't lose your position and you get your cash back. I guess this doesn't make sense though due to taxes also, even though they would be long term taxes for me at that point, the dollar amount would actually be a lot more. I was ready to buy another 100+ shares this morning but I wasn't going to do so if the price jumped up quickly. As everyone knows it was up in premarket early so I decided to hold off, I will wait for a pullback. I've thought about a few different options/strategies but my wife won't let me sell the shares and I don't want to lose leverage long term.

 

[hoang51]

Thanks for this. I'm curious to see if I could stretch for a 15 year mortgage. Will it give me that big of an upper hand vs. a 30 year, specially with interest rates being relatively competitive vs. previous years?

And I totally agree with home-equity being one of the best forms of investment. However I'm running the risk that TSLA might be better than that

Maybe I'll wait for it to hit $200, cash out on earnings, and play with house money until 2020. That way I have exposure to both and I'm not completely upset that I sold all my positions.

I can tell you one thing: if you set yourself up with a plan to sell at a certain price, stick to it so that you don't end up losing more than you want when there's a massive dip and when you need the money. Your situation is important due to use of it for housing. It's better to sell out too early than to sell at a lower price when there's a dip. That should put a check on greed. You can always re-enter on a dip, but you'll have to be patient. If you look at the stock's chart, major dips usually sets the stock back a lot almost prior to its last peak run up level. The choice is ultimately up to you when to sell. Good luck not getting too greedy.

 

[Ocelot]

I can tell you one thing: if you set yourself up with a plan to sell at a certain price, stick to it so that you don't end up losing more than you want when there's a massive dip and when you need the money. Your situation is important due to use of it for housing. It's better to sell out too early than to sell at a lower price when there's a dip. That should put a check on greed. You can always re-enter on a dip, but you'll have to be patient. If you look at the stock's chart, major dips usually sets the stock back a lot almost prior to its last peak run up level. The choice is ultimately up to you when to sell. Good luck not getting too greedy.

...


i think it was morgan or buffett who said " i made all my money selling too early".

 

[nursebee]

“I made my money by selling too soon.”
― Bernard M. Baruch

 

[Citizen-T]

I want everyone to sit back from your computer for a second and think about how you felt when we traded at $138. Remember that feeling of despair? Remember the fear that the party was finally over and that all the short sellers were right? Now, look at the craziness today. Is it not exactly the opposite? People calling for another double by the end of the year?

Look, I could be wrong and this may just be the beginning of a run to $200. All I know is that the risk/reward is not very favorable right now. When we were at $138 I posted a really super-simple chart and asked you if buying when TSLA was down big off its highs has ever been a mistake. Here it is again, and I ask you: what is the probability that this time is going to be different? Are those odds in your favor?

I'm not telling you to sell. I'm not saying this is a sure thing. I just don't want you to get carried away in the moment. That's all.

 

[ZenMan]

I'm not telling you to sell. I'm not saying this is a sure thing. I just don't want you to get carried away in the moment. That's all.

Very nicely said!

 

[AlMc]

...


i think it was morgan or buffett who said " i made all my money selling too early".

Yep....And I did sell 10% of my holdings today at 172.5 (guess I am a 'weak' long now)......But, if Tesla tuesday does occur it will go back in.

 

[austinEV]

Yeah, I think we are set up for the mother of all Tesla tuesdays tomorrow. I have been preaching to hold during what I predicted to be a stately increase to about 170, which it decided to do in 3 days instead:

It *might* go up like crazy tomorrow, but it seems likely we are due for a pullback. Who knows though, some new mechanism might be in play.

 

[farzyness]

I can tell you one thing: if you set yourself up with a plan to sell at a certain price, stick to it so that you don't end up losing more than you want when there's a massive dip and when you need the money. Your situation is important due to use of it for housing. It's better to sell out too early than to sell at a lower price when there's a dip. That should put a check on greed. You can always re-enter on a dip, but you'll have to be patient. If you look at the stock's chart, major dips usually sets the stock back a lot almost prior to its last peak run up level. The choice is ultimately up to you when to sell. Good luck not getting too greedy.

Thank you. Given the good news flow and some more to come yet (China/Europe reservation numbers, White House response to petition, Q3 earnings, Model X final prototype, potential Gen III reveal) that hopefully happen within 6-12 months from now, my best bet here probably is to set a trailing stop of about 10-12% now and let it ride for 6-12 months. If by winter 2013/spring of 2014 I haven't hit my stop yet, then I sell the shares and buy myself a place I can call home. That way I can somewhat protect myself against losses and still be exposed to a potential run to $200+.

 

[patentesq]

I would recommend tracking your trailing stop price every week, given the size-able % movement on TSLA. I set a trailing stop around %12 after Q2 report, and it got triggered in 3 days (as the stop price only adjusts higher based on ATH).

 

[MartinAustin]

It *might* go up like crazy tomorrow, but it seems likely we are due for a pullback. Who knows though, some new mechanism might be in play.

Austinites FTW!!!

I was certain there would be a pullback today, given the craziness at the end of last week. Instead... more craziness.

(the kind of craziness I like)

Here's a CNBC "street fight" clip from just a few minutes ago, with bulls vs bears on it -
http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000193982&play=1

"Tesla has 20,000 owners maybe at the end of this year" remarks the bear. He needs to check this forum, where VIN#20900 was announced the other day, and it's August.

 

[Julian Cox]

Relentless strength, I am at awe...

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Too bad it is a after-fact thought. Who saw this coming after the post Q2 ER slide??

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oh Speaking of that, a guy called JC comes to my mind. :wink:

Yo Johan. through $170.


We have ourselves a momentum-driven tech stock. Yes we do.

 

[Curt Renz]

There were some swings early and again late today, hobbes, but as you say the price never strayed far from $39 for several hours during midday. Indeed, there must have been more than a few investors with acrophobia who were selling near that price, as evidenced by some of the testimony here. As you suggest those profit takers may have been matched by those covering short positions out of fear of further price rises, in addition to ordinary buyers believing TSLA has much more potential. Some of the greater volatility at either end of the session may have been induced through gamesmanship by shorts, particularly the party that bought a huge position in put options the day after the earnings report.

Perhaps longer term investors need not be too concerned. When a large number of traders feel it’s time to take profits in anticipation of repurchases at lower prices, yet are unable to depress prices much by their selling, those traders may eventually have to chase a stock that is running away on them.

Above is post #131 in this thread which I wrote on March 12, 2013.

 

[Discoducky]

Peaked at $173 dead (aka $173.00). Why was that the magic number today? Anyone have insights?