Norse
Active Member
Same here, I have the same tax(28%) if I hold short or longterm, so Im just buying and selling Stock, and buying Calls. My 170 Calls 0.80 will hopefully do some good tmrw.
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Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2013
- Thread starter Robert.Boston
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Same here, I have the same tax(28%) if I hold short or longterm, so Im just buying and selling Stock, and buying Calls. My 170 Calls 0.80 will hopefully do some good tmrw.
Yeah Sleepy's prediction is pretty scary. Are you an insider Sleepy?
Nice that analysts are actually using our posts and blogs. Proves our edge over the market. Anyway looks like we are set to start the 3rd quarter rally and fill leave the trading range. Congrats to all the patient longs and believers.Thanks for the tip, I saw the initial jump and decided to throw some money at it. Was going to pay some bills with it but I can risk a little bit of it now and get some reward out of it. It was up about 2%. Now if it can get the 8% left...
Price Target Increase
From DB's report:
Key metrics running better-than-expected; raising target price
Based on conversations with mgmt and monitoring information available on
Tesla owners’ blogs, we believe that the company is on-track to modestly
outperform Q3 margin expectations, that demand has continued to grow in the
US and Europe (despite substantial option pricing increases in effect as of late
July), and that the production rate at Tesla's factory has continued to increase.
We are raising our target price to $200 from $160, as well as fine-tuning 2014 /
2015 est’s higher (positive margin impact of recent option pricing increases),
and maintaining our Buy recommendation based on valuation.
Continue to see a positive risk / reward for the shares
As Tesla continues to execute to margin targets and demonstrate strong
demand for their product, confidence in the late-decade volume, margin, and
earnings estimates that justify upside to the current valuation will likely grow.
We believe that this, along with still-high short interest (~22% of Free Float;
~18MM shares, ex convert hedging), provides a good set-up through at least
the end of 2013. With better visibility on the metrics that the Street is focused
on (margin and demand), we see limited potential for negative catalysts in the
near term.
Demand, margin, and production rate all heading in the right direction
We believe that Gross Margin (ex ZEV Credits) will likely hit 20% in Q3 (vs 14%
in Q2). We see this as modestly higher than expected (largely due to betterthan-
expected positive impact from option pricing increases), providing good
visibility on hitting the 25% target in Q4, and supporting higher levels in the
future as production increases and supply chain continues to mature. On the
demand side, Veh ID Number assignment rates appear to support order rates
approaching 30k units annualized vs our estimate of <25k in Q2. Both US and
European order rates appear to be increasing. Finally, we believe that the
production rate continues to rise, as Tesla breaks supply chain bottlenecks. We
expect that Tesla will achieve its 600/week 2013YE target sometime in Q4.
Despite the production increase, we believe that deliveries will be similar to Q2
(as Tesla guided to) because vehicles in-transit to Europe will be substantially
higher at the end of Q3 than the end of Q2.
Our target price is based on a DCF Analysis…
…with substantial supporting work to justify terminal volume levels and
margins. The increase vs our prior target is driven by modestly higher volume
expectations in the 2020 terminal year of our DCF (220k units vs 200k units,
still about 0.25% global market share and 5%-6% share of our estimate of the
true competitive set) and rolling the model forward 1 year to a 2014YE target.
Key downside risks are significant quality issues or downturn in demand.
From DB's report:
Key metrics running better-than-expected; raising target price
Based on conversations with mgmt and monitoring information available on
Tesla owners’ blogs, we believe that the company is on-track to modestly
outperform Q3 margin expectations, that demand has continued to grow in the
US and Europe (despite substantial option pricing increases in effect as of late
July), and that the production rate at Tesla's factory has continued to increase.
We are raising our target price to $200 from $160, as well as fine-tuning 2014 /
2015 est’s higher (positive margin impact of recent option pricing increases),
and maintaining our Buy recommendation based on valuation.
Continue to see a positive risk / reward for the shares
As Tesla continues to execute to margin targets and demonstrate strong
demand for their product, confidence in the late-decade volume, margin, and
earnings estimates that justify upside to the current valuation will likely grow.
We believe that this, along with still-high short interest (~22% of Free Float;
~18MM shares, ex convert hedging), provides a good set-up through at least
the end of 2013. With better visibility on the metrics that the Street is focused
on (margin and demand), we see limited potential for negative catalysts in the
near term.
Demand, margin, and production rate all heading in the right direction
We believe that Gross Margin (ex ZEV Credits) will likely hit 20% in Q3 (vs 14%
in Q2). We see this as modestly higher than expected (largely due to betterthan-
expected positive impact from option pricing increases), providing good
visibility on hitting the 25% target in Q4, and supporting higher levels in the
future as production increases and supply chain continues to mature. On the
demand side, Veh ID Number assignment rates appear to support order rates
approaching 30k units annualized vs our estimate of <25k in Q2. Both US and
European order rates appear to be increasing. Finally, we believe that the
production rate continues to rise, as Tesla breaks supply chain bottlenecks. We
expect that Tesla will achieve its 600/week 2013YE target sometime in Q4.
Despite the production increase, we believe that deliveries will be similar to Q2
(as Tesla guided to) because vehicles in-transit to Europe will be substantially
higher at the end of Q3 than the end of Q2.
Our target price is based on a DCF Analysis…
…with substantial supporting work to justify terminal volume levels and
margins. The increase vs our prior target is driven by modestly higher volume
expectations in the 2020 terminal year of our DCF (220k units vs 200k units,
still about 0.25% global market share and 5%-6% share of our estimate of the
true competitive set) and rolling the model forward 1 year to a 2014YE target.
Key downside risks are significant quality issues or downturn in demand.
Yeah Sleepy's prediction is pretty scary. Are you an insider Sleepy?
Don't answer Sleepy. Just keep feeding us little fishes.
Anyways, it looks like we are going to hit new highs soon enough and make a little run. Next up is GS stupid "upgrade".
You know, what strikes me most about DB's Tesla analysis (not the first time) is how spot-on, logical and well reserached they are. They are never unreasonably optimistic, but simply make "educated guesses" from the data out there - like we do here. Just shows others could do exactly the same if they really wanted to.
Now, I'd love to see a pre-q3 prediction from Andrea James, please! :wink:
Now, I'd love to see a pre-q3 prediction from Andrea James, please! :wink:
Following your posts here is almost like insider trading! Keep up the good work, LOL!
What's funny is that DB has Q3 estimates:
~5,150 cars delivered
20% gross margin
Expects Tesla will achieve 600/week sometime in Q4
...and a $200 price target.
sleepyhead has:
~6,150 cars delivered
23% gross margin
Suspects Tesla achieved 600/week sometime in July.
Expects Tesla will achieve 800/week sometime in Q4
~5,150 cars delivered
20% gross margin
Expects Tesla will achieve 600/week sometime in Q4
...and a $200 price target.
sleepyhead has:
~6,150 cars delivered
23% gross margin
Suspects Tesla achieved 600/week sometime in July.
Expects Tesla will achieve 800/week sometime in Q4
Depends on how bad the shorts are going to get squeezed, I like the fact that we had an uptick in short percentage reported recently.
If we break 175, I think we will see it really take off and maybe a little short squeeze. Could break 180. Honestly I'm a little worried about Elon tweeting about the driverless stuff though because I think the market is still pretty split about that. Either way tomorrow should be great!
Thanks Sleepy. I have followed your comments since pre Q2. Bought more TSLA then (thanks) and just slipped in a couple hundred more shares 2 minutes ago in Extended market. :wink:
PS...No worries if TSLA does not spike tomorrow. I am a 'long' and was going to buy pre Q3 ER. Just decided to pull the trigger now:biggrin:
PS...No worries if TSLA does not spike tomorrow. I am a 'long' and was going to buy pre Q3 ER. Just decided to pull the trigger now:biggrin:
Sunnyday
Member
Isn't Tesla already at or above 600/week today? If so, DB is setting themselves up for another upward revision.
They might be over 700/week if you believe the reports of some of the posters. I have no reason to doubt them, but it would be nice to get more confirmations.
I think 173 is the real resistance point. If we break that, then we could reach 180 before we see a slight pull back. I think any spike will definitely be an overshoot b/c it'll most likely be a squeeze but the question is how far will it pull back. But just like any squeeze, we'll probably see new shorts to replace the old ones
Just to play devils advocate a bit here, is the DB upgrade really that big a deal? Will it really cause a 10% or even 5% increase?
mershaw2001
I'm short the short sellers
I felt like premiums for options were at a ridiculous low for october contracts earlier today, based on the 30 day low forward IV. The moment you go to december, the premium spiked to holy heck high levels because it grabbed the Nov 4 earnings. I doubled my position this morning using oct150's at a stock price of 164.8 by using 10% in the money options, the 150's were costing 18-19 dollars. That's 400-500 in time premium (low in my opinion) for over a month of time, and only 15 dollars in the money. The same contract for december is a full 8 dollars more, so close to 1200 in time premium/extrinsic value. I think almost all of the good news is out there, it just takes a bit more news-recognition to disseminate from the tesla board to the public, similar to what happened today with the DB price report. I expect we'll see a run up prior to earnings now. I'll be selling the 190's tho in a day or two to make a spread.
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