Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2015

[Robert.Boston]

Regarding CPO, I feel that Tesla may not officially release the program now because it may draw potential buyers attention and affect new car sales. Its a tough act to release such a program specially when many potential buyers are anticipating the unveiling of Model X details. Q2, in that terms may be difficult to achieve for sales. Shoot me down with differing thoughts, please.

I disagree, because the used Model Ss will be on the market regardless of whether Tesla gets into the CPO business. I would rather that Tesla earn the ~15% margin on used car sales. Further, the CPO program controls the quality of the purchase process and subsequent ownership, which are big pluses for me in my Tesla experience.

Looking into history for comparisons, there was a time when Alcoa controlled a huge share of the primary aluminum market. Its main competition turned out to be recycled aluminum. Alcoa's strategy was to become the 900-pound gorilla in aluminum recycling, too, so that it had effect control over the total flow of aluminum into North America. Unfortunately for Alcoa, because aluminum is a commodity, the DOJ busted Alcoa for monopolization, a concern not faced by Tesla. But the strategy is right: control the total flow of product, used and new, into the market to maximize profits.


Moderator's Note
An interesting side-discussion was moved to Long Term Fundamentals of Tesla (TSLA)

 

[Gerasimental]

Regarding CPO, I feel that Tesla may not officially release the program now because it may draw potential buyers attention and affect new car sales. Its a tough act to release such a program specially when many potential buyers are anticipating the unveiling of Model X details. Q2, in that terms may be difficult to achieve for sales. Shoot me down with differing thoughts, please.

Hm, most CPO cars that will be available now will be RWD cars which should help to reduce cannibalisation from MX.
If we are convinced that Tesla is supply constrained, taking some potential new MS buyers out of the market and having them buy CPO MS is a good thing, not a bad thing, as they will simply be replaced by other new car buyers.

 

[eepic]

Short blog piece about resale value guarantee in Europe A Peace of Mind Guarantee | Tesla Motors

Here's the french press release on the wire Tesla annonce le lancement d'un systeme de financement innovant avec garantie de valeur de reprise pour ses clients en France - Yahoo Finance France

And looks like Japan gets different a 45% residual for 60 kWh and 33% for 85 kWh after 48 months.

 

[Krugerrand]

Regarding CPO, I feel that Tesla may not officially release the program now because it may draw potential buyers attention and affect new car sales. Its a tough act to release such a program specially when many potential buyers are anticipating the unveiling of Model X details. Q2, in that terms may be difficult to achieve for sales. Shoot me down with differing thoughts, please.

Most of the market is not cross shopping used Model S's and new Model X's. Two very different vehicles. The CPO program will allow for those on the financial cusp/couldn't justify full price of a new Model S to buy one.

 

[sundaymorning]

Short interest as of 2/27/15: 23,285,697: Slightly (about 100K) less than on 2/13/15.

With much of weaker longs weeded out, this could be the beginning of a nice squeeze if stationary storage announcement in the pipeline. *fingers crossed.

 

[Gerasimental]

Sharply up on fairly low volume, anybody want to interpret this for me?
Definitely expect lots of shorts to be covering in the low 190s. With various catalysts on the way and a likely positive Q1, this seems like the best opportunity they'll have for some time. Unless they're long-term shorts and believe in the BofA narrative and $65 PT.

 

[jhm]

Moderator Note

I've moved a block of posts discussing media bias and FUD to Articles re Tesla—Fact or Fiction?. To be clear, the aim is to facilitate a focused discussion of these important matters in an intentionally on-topic thread. The short term price movement thread is for topics that explicitly relate to price movement.

 

[maoing]

today's jump could be related to Tesla Motors Inc (TSLA) Sales Model Approved By NJ Panel

 

[Gerasimental]

2% bump seems very big for a fairly minor piece of positive news in this very bearish environment, no?

 

[maoing]

Technically TSLA needs a relief rebounce.

2% bump seems very big for a fairly minor piece of positive news in this very bearish environment, no?

 

[jhm]

today's jump could be related to Tesla Motors Inc (TSLA) Sales Model Approved By NJ Panel

Tesla Motors Inc (TSLA) Sales Model Approved By NJ Panel

Wonderful news. I'm so happy to see Republicans lead on this, including Rep. Kim Coleman in UT. NJ Democrats were pushing on this from last year, but the free market angle helps this move in a bipartisan way.

Edit. The bill was passed unanimously by the NJ Assembly. Massive bipartisan support. The dealers must feel jilted. Must go to Senate and then on to Gov. Christie.

 

[vgrinshpun]

I think that the action we see today is due to the reiteration of the idea that Apple will end up investing in Tesla Motors. Here is the short summary from the Streetinsider.com:

In a CNBC interview, Ross Gerber said he sees Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL) making an investment in Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA). However, he doesn't see an all out acquisition.Gerber doesn't see Apple entering the auto industry directly, saying the margins aren't there.

 

[sub]

The bears are reloading as we speak. I personally have never been nor will I ever be concerned about these states that want to ban Tesla direct sales. I'm not a law expert but it seems to be unconstitutional and only needs to be escalated by Tesla. Still good news on NJ though, I think someone posted recently that things may be moving close in Texas as well?

 

[sundaymorning]

I think that the action we see today is due to the reiteration of the idea that Apple will end up investing in Tesla Motors. Here is the short summary from the Streetinsider.com:

The longer AAPL waits, the more they'll need to put out. Will it be AAPL or GOOG, who will blink first?

 

[v12 to 12v]

I think that the action we see today is due to the reiteration of the idea that Apple will end up investing in Tesla Motors. Here is the short summary from the Streetinsider.com:

I think Apple has nothing to offer Tesla other than cash. I'd be quite upset if there was anything else going on. Apple is a big slow company without ideas.

 

[FredTMC]

So, CNBC has this Ross Gerber guy on and he says he expects Apple to make a multi billion dollar investment in Tesla...

so, they title a news bit as "Apple will not buy Tesla"... They spun that real good.

 

[Robert.Boston]

A multi-billion investment would be a good thing for Tesla, and some tech exchange wouldn't be unwelcome from my perspective. Not that Tesla needs the cash, strictly speaking, but it would facilitate a faster development cycle for the Model 3.

 

[Johan]

A multi-billion investment would be a good thing for Tesla, and some tech exchange wouldn't be unwelcome from my perspective. Not that Tesla needs the cash, strictly speaking, but it would facilitate a faster development cycle for the Model 3.

Just remeber the rate at which Tesla are developing new models as well as scaling up production and making iterations on-the-fly is very high indeed and IMO this process can probably not be sped up further by "throwing money at it" so to speak. A year-to-year growth rate in production of more than 50% per year for several years while introducing new models as well as keeping up very high qulity is quite rare when it comes to something as complex as a car. I think being involved intimately with a company like Apple at the moment would only risk slowing things down and making Tesla less agile. I would like to see them invest in the Gigafactory though, without interfering with the project, only being a financial partner. Like v12to12v said above: Apple has little to offer right now other than cash.

 

[drinkerofkoolaid]

Am I missing something or is the put to call ratio for April and May showing a strong bear bias?

 

[aznt1217]

I think Apple has nothing to offer Tesla other than cash. I'd be quite upset if there was anything else going on. Apple is a big slow company without ideas.

I wouldn't go that far. Apple has invested significantly in metals and technology. I think there will be some kind of collaboration in the metals processes especially for Model III. I also hate to say it, I think Tesla can use some of Tim Cook's crazy logistics skills.