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Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2015
- Thread starter Robert.Boston
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mejojo
Active Member
Many on this forum demonstrated an inability to grasp much of what you see once they did not hear a 20% range increase was included. Pfft.
SW2Fiddler
We Are Cognitive Dissidents
What about a nice fast charger (maxed-out HPWC?) at these venues... Uber use strongly encouraged by strategic placement... Equals More and more Uber Teslas dropping and picking up app-using attendees in a compelling, super-safe car. A RIDE "sells it" so much more deeply than just walking by a nice looking car and wondering.
Just been doing it for three weeks and I am blown away by the reactions of passengers. We are making 10-12 converts a day who are not otherwise going to hear about the car (Average Josephine won't be researching cars/companies between her 5-7 year replacement cycle, remember) and it's cemented by a good VISCERAL sales pitch, right in their center of gravity, when Pearlie May responds to the Go Pedal. Not to mention seeing the brain-dead-easy navigation in action on the sexy touch screen. Getting their questions answered by an actual owner who's obviously thrilled by the low cost of ownership.
TL;DR: Charge the Ubers, supercharge a major demand generator.
Has Tesla mentioned how much battery storage is at each Supercharger station? Has anyone tried to look at the potential value created by each Supercharger station?
Also, a few days ago someone on Twitter posted pictures of a Solar City battery storage device that looks different from the one on Solar City's website. Does anyone know anything about this? I'll try to find the picture.
Also, a few days ago someone on Twitter posted pictures of a Solar City battery storage device that looks different from the one on Solar City's website. Does anyone know anything about this? I'll try to find the picture.
Yuri_G
Member
Auto-steering is the major upgrade in 7.0. You could essentially get onto the freeway, set it, and not touch the steering wheel until you exit.
And also auto-parking on private property.
In addition to using the events to release information to those who are paying attention, I think Tesla is also using these announcements to manage and measure investor and owner sentiment about the events.
Very interesting that Tesla still hasn't officially announced the CPO program, or said anything new about Tesla's partnership with Solar City.
Very interesting that Tesla still hasn't officially announced the CPO program, or said anything new about Tesla's partnership with Solar City.
TSLA's spring is getting compressed. The more months that pass the closer we are to gigafactory output and model 3 sales. It's not like the stock is going to jump up on "GF day" or "model 3 sales day". The value will have risen to meet it in advance. The more time that passes without that valuation the easier it will be to predict the timing of a rise.
+ 1
I'll also add the closer to Model X release, the more ready that spring is to relieve some pressure before the main event
Agree with you both. I'm also expecting a modest increase as we start to get closer to the May ER, so these next couple weeks may be the last chance to get it under $200.
Very strange feeling March 31st will be an important date. A lot of end of quarter rebalancing is happening now. Only explanation for the movement in Solar City and Tesla. Look at the size and number of position added and reduced to Solar City (almost identical), and the same information for Tesla. Explains perfectly why Solar City and Tesla have been stuck in a tight channel for past few months. Also explains why all positive Solar City news is having no effect on the stock.
The lack of activity on the Solar City page might be an indicator that investors aren't currently paying attention to Solar City. FUD, irrational downgrades, and the collapse in oil prices is causing Tesla to be stuck in a similar channel. I think it's more likely than not that clarification about many things will be catalysts for both stocks. However, rebalancing can be good or bad thing, in the short term.
The lack of activity on the Solar City page might be an indicator that investors aren't currently paying attention to Solar City. FUD, irrational downgrades, and the collapse in oil prices is causing Tesla to be stuck in a similar channel. I think it's more likely than not that clarification about many things will be catalysts for both stocks. However, rebalancing can be good or bad thing, in the short term.
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FredTMC
Model S VIN #4925
Since Elon recently changed his Twitter profile picture back to the one with him holding a violin this saying comes to mind: "played him like a fiddle"... It's funny that his violin pic says "I don't even know how to play the violin"...
anyone else see any irony in his use of this picture? Maybe it's just me...
anyone else see any irony in his use of this picture? Maybe it's just me...
| 2013 Q1-Q3 | 2014 Q1-Q3 | 2013 Q4 | 2014 Q4 | 2013 | 2014 | |
| Tesla | 6554 | 3726 | 1,793 | 2,384 | 8,347 | 6,110 |
California is the most penetrated market of tesla Model S. And california resident usually benefit shorter wait time especiall in quarter end window dressing, so I don't see particular supply constraint issue for california demand. It's interesting to note 2014 sales down 26.8% from 2013, if don't count Q4 P85D pent up demand, 2014 Q1-Q3 sales down 43% from 2013 Q1-Q3, but 2014 Q4 is up 33% from 2013 Q4 with P85D demand was strong.
Tesla market worldwide is like a complex system. All the individual geographic markets are highly interdependent on their share of deliveries for as long as Tesla is production constrained. It is not visible how Tesla organizes deliveries to particular markets from quarter to quarter. We may get more visibility once supply exceeds demand in all the individual markets.
It follows that analysis of one single market in isolation is unlikely to yield meaningful conclusions. We can not conclude that deliveries in California were down due to lower demand in California for as long as there are intermarket delivery dependencies.
I agree the worldwide demand is a complex system and hard to draw conclusion. But for big and matured markets like california and Norway, it's straightforward. The assumption is supply constraint can be removed by constant or reduced wait time YoY, so the delivery number IS the demand. Because Tesla won't intentionally discourage any california or norway buyers not buy the car in order to allocate production to other markets. I think Elon must had seen the drastical drop of orders from home market california during 2014 Q1-Q3, so releasing D model was an essential strategy to boost demand. By saying that I can only conclude the Model S demand is leveling in matured markets like california and norway, but Tesla still have great potential in not matured markets like rest of US, China, Japan, Germany and most of the EU countries.
I disagree. It may be true that Tesla does reach something close to fulfilling demand on the highest end model over the course of a quarter in CA, non-top end models do get pushed back. Further, we simply don't know how close they get to the depths of their P85D order book for CA at the end of the quarter. We also don't know if they run out of certain parts and have to delay orders, like the next-gen seats.
don't make things too complex. The global wait time except RHD markets is within 3 months (a quarter) now, so all the demand (orders) in previous quarter should be delivered in next quarter, it's especially true for california. I don't see any logic problem to conclude the sales number in current quarter equal to the demand in last quarter. Frankly speaking with the population in california and norway, those markets are doing very well even we call them saturated markets. Tesla growth should come from elsewhere.
I think California and Norway are atypical markets. C has large population of affluents, high knowledge of EV, strong tax and HOV incentives, local production, easy delivery, lots of factors -- so there was a great deal of demand awaiting launch that was satisfied quickly forming a tough comparative for future growth. Similar dynamics in Norway.
Complex things are complex by their nature and for usually valid reasons. Tesla's apportioning of deliveries to various markets is quite complex.
I would imagine that Tesla prioritises D deliveries to all markets (highest margin, high marketing value). That means that out of all available D's California and Norway will only get its allotted share. Other markets must get some Ds as well to act as seeds for future demand. The same goes for the other models. Such prioritisation is most likely counterbalanced with the need to deliver non D in reasonable time frames.
Such prioritisation is overlayed with highly complex production schedules, parts availability and shipment schedules. Once all these inputs are plugged in, the output is a particular spread of deliveries to various markets.
The statement that the sales number in the current quarter equals the demand in the last quarter can only stand the scrutiny of logic if we knew the demand in Cal and Norway in these quarters. We have no data to be able to conclude that. Filling missing data with assumptions might be valid as long as the assumptions are highlighted in a qualifiying statement.
The demand in a single market in the last quarter or any other quarter is unknown. Sales are known in all markets.
A complex delivery apportioning system is a major determining factor that drives reported Tesla's sales numbers in all world markets. Demand is only one factor in that apportioning system, therefore there is no basis and it could be incorrect to conclude that the sales in the current quarter equals demand in the previous quarter in any single market.
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Agree. Those so called pent up demand often skewed the real average demand, so it's no surprise to see California/Norway demand declined YoY after initial new model launch. The similar thing happened on China and the pent up demand lasted even shorter time period. For 2015, my personal worry is where the 50% growth comes from? I don't expect 50% growth from California and Norway because they are already "saturated" compared to other markets. I think 50% growth is a bold prediction from Elon, the end results all depend on how well the under penetrated markets ramping up? How well the new SW features can stimulate the demand? How well the sales team work on that goal? How well the X release not canniblize S demand? IMO, it's not an assured growth as Elon stated. Investors should not take that for granted.
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When the wait time was more than a quarter, it's hard to conclude. But current wait time shrinked to less than 3 months, it's true to california because it's close to factory and convenient for delivery. Say all the 2014 Q3 orders delivered in Q4 plus some extra P85D orders made right in Q4. So using Q4 delivery number to conclude Q3 demand can only be overestimate instead of underestimate.
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When the wait time was more than a quarter, it's hard to conclude. But current wait time shrinked to less than 3 months, it's true to california because it's close to factory and convenient for delivery. Say all the 2014 Q3 orders delivered in Q4 plus some extra P85D orders made right in Q4. So using Q4 delivery number to conclude Q3 demand can only be overestimate instead of underestimate.
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