Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2015

[drinkerofkoolaid]

Food for thought. It would be crazy for the USA to not introduce an import tarriff on oil, or for states to not significantly raise the tax on gasoline. A tax increase would be a very intelligent way to improve the facial situation in many states, reduce carbon emissions, and reduce exposure to the risk created by the volatility in the price of oil.

Oil Import Tariffs : Alternative Scenarios and Their Effects (Congressional Budget Office 1982)

https://www.cbo.gov/sites/default/files/cbofiles/ftpdocs/50xx/doc5091/doc08.pdf

"In the long term, an Oil Import Tariff is a Neutral Subsidy for Alternative Fuels and Technologies"

"An import fee encourages a wide range of innovation in the provision of energy sources"

 

[mejojo]

And in the end, range doesn't mean a thing if there's no Supercharging network to support it...

I wouldn't be surprised if, in the end, other makers are allowed to piggyback on the Tesla network.

After all, EM's grand goal is not for Tesla to have a monopoly on EVs, but for the world to adopt EVs.

The logic conclusion of this is for Audi, BMW, etc. to pay their fair share for access to the existing infrastructure and to invest in building it out further.

 

[vgrinshpun]

According to StreetInsider a German car magazine reported that MB plans to end their cooperation on Class B electric with Tesla. This could nudge the stock down. I would be very curious to see what is the MB's justification for this.

Diamler AG's Mercedes-Benz unit will move to end its partnership with Tesla Motors (Nasdaq: TSLA) as the German automaker moves to produce components for its B-Class Electric Drive car in house.
According to Auto-Motor-Und-Sport.deMercedes will still want to purchase batteries for the vehicle, but there was no indication of where they would procure those.
It also wasn't made specific when the partnership would end, though it might be expected sooner rather than later.
Notably, Daimler sold the remaining 4 percent stake it held in Tesla last October, but said the move wouldn't affect the cooperation between the two companies.

 

[aznt1217]

According to StreetInsider a German car magazine reported that MB plans to end their cooperation on Class B electric with Tesla. This could nudge the stock down. I would be very curious to see what is the MB's justification for this.

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It's pretty simple...they want to keep more of the money to themselves.

 

[techmaven]

I wouldn't be surprised if, in the end, other makers are allowed to piggyback on the Tesla network.

After all, EM's grand goal is not for Tesla to have a monopoly on EVs, but for the world to adopt EVs.

The logic conclusion of this is for Audi, BMW, etc. to pay their fair share for access to the existing infrastructure and to invest in building it out further.

At the moment, there isn't a L3 charging standard that Audi/BMW or anyone else can use. CHAdeMO and CCS are both limited to 200 amps which makes them Level 2 DC charging.

There is a vote coming up on the SAE J1772 standard... does anyone know what that vote is about?

 

[Bet TSLA]

And in the end, range doesn't mean a thing if there's no Supercharging network to support it...

That's just so wrong. If I make a BEV with a 1000 mile range I need no supercharging network. At most I might need a few fast chargers, or equivalently a few battery swap stations. The supercharger network is a stopgap, a necessary evil because battery technology isn't good enough yet. A 10x energy density breakthrough would mean batteries with e.g. 1000-mile range and half the weight. If it goes along with faster charging then a custom supercharger network becomes entirely superfluous.

Note that even without a breakthrough, just keeping up the current ~8%/year improvement gives us 10x in thirty years. But with the amount of money now being spent on battery research, I expect that pace to increase significantly.

 

[eloder]

That's just so wrong. If I make a BEV with a 1000 mile range I need no supercharging network. At most I might need a few fast chargers, or equivalently a few battery swap stations. The supercharger network is a stopgap, a necessary evil because battery technology isn't good enough yet. A 10x energy density breakthrough would mean batteries with e.g. 1000-mile range and half the weight. If it goes along with faster charging then a custom supercharger network becomes entirely superfluous.

Note that even without a breakthrough, just keeping up the current ~8%/year improvement gives us 10x in thirty years. But with the amount of money now being spent on battery research, I expect that pace to increase significantly.

1000 mile gas tanks can be made now for just a few dollars more, but it's never put into place. Until batteries are the price of silicon chips, I don't see 1000 mile batteries will be coming anytime in the near future.

 

[mmccord]

That's just so wrong. If I make a BEV with a 1000 mile range I need no supercharging network. At most I might need a few fast chargers, or equivalently a few battery swap stations. The supercharger network is a stopgap, a necessary evil because battery technology isn't good enough yet. A 10x energy density breakthrough would mean batteries with e.g. 1000-mile range and half the weight. If it goes along with faster charging then a custom supercharger network becomes entirely superfluous.

Note that even without a breakthrough, just keeping up the current ~8%/year improvement gives us 10x in thirty years. But with the amount of money now being spent on battery research, I expect that pace to increase significantly.

How long would that 10x larger battery take to charge @ 220v/50 amps? hmm?

 

[Bet TSLA]

How long would that 10x larger battery take to charge @ 220v/50 amps? hmm?

Guess I have to explain everything. Sorry, thought it was obvious. Pretty much you regularly run your battery down to 500 and charge it up to 800 at home. It charges at 29mph of range on a NEMA 14-50, or at 58mph on an HPWC, or maybe a bit better it that aspect can be improved too. So 5-10 hours overnight max.

Going on a long trip? Charge it up to 1000 miles in advance. It's unlikely it will be more than a 1000-mile trip total, in which case there's no charging to worry about during the trip. But if so, you're really, really unlikely to want to drive more than 700 miles in a day, so you have a 300 mile reserve plus whatever you can charge overnight. Even a reasonable scattering of HPWC type chargers will let you replenish your battery by 4-500 miles of range overnight.

All numbers approximate, but with range like this pretty much all charging goes fast because you never get anywhere near capacity so you never slow charge. This has the nice side effect that the throughput at charging stations is faster, so less waiting. All aspects of charging improve.

 

[mmccord]

Guess I have to explain everything. Sorry, thought it was obvious. Pretty much you regularly run your battery down to 500 and charge it up to 800 at home. It charges at 29mph of range on a NEMA 14-50, or at 58mph on an HPWC, or maybe a bit better it that aspect can be improved too. So 5-10 hours overnight max.

Going on a long trip? Charge it up to 1000 miles in advance. It's unlikely it will be more than a 1000-mile trip total, in which case there's no charging to worry about during the trip. But if so, you're really, really unlikely to want to drive more than 700 miles in a day, so you have a 300 mile reserve plus whatever you can charge overnight. Even a reasonable scattering of HPWC type chargers will let you replenish your battery by 4-500 miles of range overnight.

All numbers approximate, but with range like this pretty much all charging goes fast because you never get anywhere near capacity so you never slow charge. This has the nice side effect that the throughput at charging stations is faster, so less waiting. All aspects of charging improve.

Maybe my math is off, but if I drive 700 miles in a day and want to replenish my charge on a 40 amp charger, it will take >24 hours to recharge.

On an 80 amp charger, it's still 12 hours. Neither of these is 'overnight'.

 

[ev-enthusiast]

Tesla country manager for Germany and Austria Philipp Schröder is leaving after 20 months (link).
He is returning to his former company called Sonnenbatterie.
Jochen Rudat (former BMW employee) who is currently in charge of swiss market for Tesla (638 deliveries in Switzerland) could become successor as country manager for Germany and Austria.
With 828 Model S deliveries this year Tesla sold almost as many vehicles as BMW sold 7 series vehicles in Germany and is up about 70% yoy.

 

[Bet TSLA]

Maybe my math is off, but if I drive 700 miles in a day and want to replenish my charge on a 40 amp charger, it will take >24 hours to recharge.

On an 80 amp charger, it's still 12 hours. Neither of these is 'overnight'.

That's why I said HPWC type, meaning 80 amps. And I said 4-500 miles of the 700 miles used. Please describe a scenario where you actually care that you aren't starting every day at 1000 mile range. I think it happens so rarely that nobody cares. I'd be happy to buy a BEV with 1000 mile range and no supercharger network, and I'd prefer it to what we have now from Tesla. You wouldn't?

Sorry, this is getting away from short term price movements. What's relevant to that is that all the competition is in fantasy land.

 

[mmccord]

That's why I said HPWC type, meaning 80 amps. And I said 4-500 miles of the 700 miles used. Please describe a scenario where you actually care that you aren't starting every day at 1000 mile range. I think it happens so rarely that nobody cares. I'd be happy to buy a BEV with 1000 mile range and no supercharger network, and I'd prefer it to what we have now from Tesla. You wouldn't?

1) I'm planning a cross-country road-trip right now. Yes, I understand it's not typical usage, but it's what on my mind right now. If I'm going to drive >700 miles in one day, chances are I'm doing it again the next day.

2) I'd be very happy with a 1000 mile range EV, but I think a DC charging network would still be a requirement for long-distance travel, given point #1.

Also, why drag around 1000 miles worth of batteries all the time when you rarely use that much range? Wouldn't it be better to cut the battery weight in half, have 500 miles range, and have a good charging network?

 

[BoerumHill]

German country manager leaving after 20 months (link).

Seems like mixed results in Germany. Almost 50 SC and they're not far behind the 7 series in sales, but probably not as successful as they hoped.

 

[Hogfighter]

audi is setting itself up as a joke
1. you have two, we will do three motors. which company will do 4 motors first
2. better range than the model X. are they testing one now? do you think tesla gave them a car to drive? not even released yet but they know the range
3. they keep announcing over the years future electric cars that never get released.

I can't remember the reporter, but I recall in 2012 one writing (and I paraphrase), 'game over. Tesla wins.'

it still feels that way 3 years later.

 

[ev-enthusiast]

Seems like mixed results in Germany. Almost 50 SC and they're not far behind the 7 series in sales, but probably not as successful as they hoped.

They are actually doing a great job here in Germany and in Europe.
Compared to the US things are pretty different in Europe and in Germany especially.
Lobbying of car manufacturers and their suppliers is just ridiculous (just take e.g. VDA-Chef Wissmann article video, I can no longer read this stuff!).
Some days ago I have seen a report about EV adoption that was done by ARAL!?
At first I could not believe that.
Guess what the outcome of the report was?
Yes, customers just do not want to buy EVs, just like in "Who killed the electric car?" 10 years ago!
History repeating.
This hard and sometimes dirty fight will go on for the next 20 years as it takes very long to replace all vehicles on the street

 

[FANGO]

Various responses to things today:

1) So we need to get over $261 to get over $261? Great, we need to go up to go up. Seems like a useful piece of information. Welcome to Tautology Club xkcd: Honor Societies

2) All the competition being called "Tesla-killers" is a great thing. I have long held that, for various reasons I won't get into because I'm heading to lunch, anything labeled as an "X-killer" will invariably fail to kill X. So all the press focusing on Tesla getting killed by these other competitors just solidifies that Tesla is the right horse to be betting on here (and the competition are all just rumors anyway, and the Audi in particular will never exist because they're incompetent and/or liars). That said, competition would help Tesla, not hurt it, so I hope they all stop being incompetent and pick up the pace.

3) Quick charging is definitely more important than giant ranges. mmcord, you ask why someone would carry 1000 miles of batteries when they could carry 500, I ask why carry 500 when you could carry 200? That's about as far as people with backs and legs would want to drive without stopping anyway. Quick charging on the road is absolutely important, and more important than huge batteries. I for one would not be happy with a 1000 mile range EV. Those extra 800 miles of batteries would be a waste of money and weight and environmental production costs etc etc etc.

 

[Crowded Mind]

Add me to the list of those that think a 1,000 mile range makes no sense. Especially if you can get a 200-300 mile charge from ubiquitous superchargers (30 years from now? Yeah, they can be everywhere) in 5-10 minutes. Without running the numbers, it's hard to imagine 1,000 mile ranges being economical in any sense of the word for all but the most extreme outliers.

 

[Lump]

Form 8-K

The Company estimates that the net proceeds from the Offering will be approximately $738.3 million, after deducting underwriting discounts and commissions and estimated offering expenses.

Tesla Motors - Current Report

 

[MartinAustin]

Wow the offering $ figure gets bigger every time there is additional news!