-
Want to remove ads? Register an account and login to see fewer ads, and become a Supporting Member to remove almost all ads.
Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2015
- Thread starter Robert.Boston
- Start date
-
- Tags
- TSLA
- Status
Johan
Ex got M3 in the divorce, waiting for EU Model Y!
I thought the price per share was fixed at the closing price the day of the offering?
Also regarding the 1000-mile battery: that's a typical example of a thought process gone wrong. Big fail. Unless magic strikes we're faced with reality and physics. And even with better batteries a 1000 mile battery is going to be larger, heavier and more expensive than a 400 mile one (and it will have to have more than 2.5 times the capacity of the 400 mile battery because it needs to carry itself around all the time). Let's just agree that if you make a graph with battery capacity on the x-axis and "optimum utility for price" on the y-axis that curve will be shaped as an upside-down U. And the peak (best utility, even disregarding price) will occur way before 1000 miles worth of capacity on the X-axis. IMO with a car like X/S I think Tesla are in the ballpark there with 70-90 kWh. All this said naturally in combination with the SC network.
However The most interesting man in the world would disagree:
Last edited:
RobStark
Well-Known Member
BoerumHill
not great not terrible
There is a new one at "seeking other shorts" (or some similarly named blog) referencing the new Auto Motor und Sport scoop about Mercedes cutting ties with Tesla and doing the 2nd gen B Class EV alone, raising range to about 500km (310 miles).
Now, the core of the article is true, the German magazine did get that scoop, but then the article goes on into the land of unicorns and this is where it gets fun:
- Before i even start with the actual statements, I just want to point out how disgusting it is how the author references the German source, but than fails to separate his own assumptions from those facts/rumors. So to anyone who does not read German or does not bother to check the source, it may appear as if several other fictional points were also coming from that source - when they don't.
- He goes on and on about what a major hit for Tesla it will be to lose the drivetrain sales to Mercedes. Now the way I read the Q2 ER is that drivetrain sales to Daimler were $32 million out of their revenue of roughly $1.2 billion, so yeah, "stop the press".
- Then he talks about how Mercedes sells the current B Class EV for $44k and how much trouble Tesla will be in if Mercedes triples range, because, yeah, they will surely leave the MSRP unchanged as they triple the battery.
I could probably find more if i cared enough about the article to read it in more detail...
Now, the core of the article is true, the German magazine did get that scoop, but then the article goes on into the land of unicorns and this is where it gets fun:
- Before i even start with the actual statements, I just want to point out how disgusting it is how the author references the German source, but than fails to separate his own assumptions from those facts/rumors. So to anyone who does not read German or does not bother to check the source, it may appear as if several other fictional points were also coming from that source - when they don't.
- He goes on and on about what a major hit for Tesla it will be to lose the drivetrain sales to Mercedes. Now the way I read the Q2 ER is that drivetrain sales to Daimler were $32 million out of their revenue of roughly $1.2 billion, so yeah, "stop the press".
- Then he talks about how Mercedes sells the current B Class EV for $44k and how much trouble Tesla will be in if Mercedes triples range, because, yeah, they will surely leave the MSRP unchanged as they triple the battery.
I could probably find more if i cared enough about the article to read it in more detail...
MartinAustin
Active Member
This so called "major" source of revenue didn't seem to help TSLA much when the company guided down recently, or when so many "news" outlets across the web carried the story that Tesla loses $4,000 every time they build a Model S.
I'm guessing Seeking whatever intentionally ignored the statement from Gartner, conceding Tesla has a 3 year lead on Audi in terms of technology. My bet is Audi releases an EV with 300ish miles in 2018, sells a maximum of 10,000 of its EV in 2019, and maybe sells a maximum of 20,000 of its EV in 2020. Meanwhile, Tesla will sell 500,000 - 1 million vehicles in 2020, will have a vehicle with 500+ miles of range by 2018, and will have its Superchargers everywhere by the end of 2019.
Also, Tesla will have the only EV capable of being charged in 5-10 minutes.
Also, Tesla will have the only EV capable of being charged in 5-10 minutes.
Last edited:
jhm
Well-Known Member
However The most interesting man in the world would disagree:
I can really respect an older gentleman with a bladder like that.
Bet TSLA
Active Member
So there seems to be a concern about weight and inefficiency. Note that I was talking a 10x improvement in energy density. That means that 4x (from today's 265 mile range) gets you to about 1000 mile range. That leaves the other 2.5x to go toward weight reduction. Today's 1200 pound battery pack turns into a 600 pound battery pack, more or less (remember there's a bunch of packaging that isn't batteries). So if you want to say no to 1000 mile range and cut it to 400 miles you might cut that down to 300 pounds.
Now for that 300 pound reduction you are taking on the need for a whole supercharger network or something equivalent. If I were a new manufacturer coming onto the scene, I'd go with the bigger battery and rarely needing to charge on the road.
You are cutting weight, improving efficiency, and cutting the cost of the battery by 60% in your scenario. Taken the other way, why would they want to add weight, add cost, and decrease efficiency when they are already able to cover 99.9% of use cases? No one wants to drive 1,000 miles non-stop.
People do expensive modifications to car to save a few pounds. You're talking like 300 lbs isn't a lot, it's absolutely enormous.
And I would take even less if I could save even more. 1000 miles is insane, full stop. So is 400.
As for Audi, my bet is they will sell zero EVs in 2018. And 2019.
And I would take even less if I could save even more. 1000 miles is insane, full stop. So is 400.
As for Audi, my bet is they will sell zero EVs in 2018. And 2019.
Todd Burch
14-Year Member
Obviously. I was commenting on reality, though--not a fantasy 1000 mile battery that's 20 or 30 years into the future. My point was that Audi can announce a 300 mile EV "Tesla killer", but it's not useful if you have nowhere to quickly charge after driving that 300 miles down the road.
The only charging option that realistically supports long-distance travel is Tesla's Supercharger network. Theoretically, Audi could pay Tesla to use the Supercharging network. But....
1) I think Audi may not be humble enough to do this, and
2) Tesla won't exactly have excess capacity for this.
Audi could develop their own network, or pay Tesla to build Superchargers faster. But thus far there's no evidence any other manufacturer is actually taking a route like this, which makes all of the vaporware announcements of high-range "Tesla-killers" moot. In the end, such stories temporarily slow the stock down (for a day or two), but I think longer term they help the stock out, as it helps paint the picture that Tesla is in the lead and all of the "big boys" are gunning for them.
ev-enthusiast
Active Member
ev-enthusiast
Active Member
CBS reports fast-moving grass fire burning in Bay Area near Livermore, Tracey (google maps).
As far as I can see nowhere near any Tesla Motors building.
As far as I can see nowhere near any Tesla Motors building.
I am really worried everyone is going to cancel their X reservation now that the new Audi Q6 is out with a Tesla beating 310 mile range and 3(!) motors. /sBTW Model X reservations said to surpass 30000 (link), interesting source.
- - - Updated - - -
Since Tesla is as much an IT company as it is a car company, i think we can use the term: paperware. No, I am not saying the big 3 Germans will not try and compete with Tesla, after all form "a thorn under their thumb" it is now beating up A8 and BMW 7 sales globally, which must hurt. But when they announce products 2-3 years out that barely beat or meet Tesla's current specs that is the correct term. "Oh, yeah, so that pesky little start up may have this high tech EV out, but we are totally going to destroy them with this brand new car [that we won't be able to produce for another 3 years]".
But bear with me for a second guys and let's pretend for a second Audi, BMW and Mercedes are not going to slip and will actually bring on their Tesla killers in 2-3 years. Let's also pretend Tesla fires all their engineers today and will not continue to innovate and keep/increase its lead.
Where the hell are they going to get all their batteries from???
That lovely (hit) piece I talked about on the previous page even warns that Tesla does not have an exclusive deal with Panasonic so they may sell to others as well. But, I mean really? So Panasonic which is so production constrained that it had to re-start plants already shut down just to be able to supply Tesla and partnered in GF1, which will have all the cells going to Tesla, will suddenly be able to produce another 10-20Gwh of batteries for others? Even if they are not exclusive to Tesla, I am pretty sure 101% of their production 3 years ahead is already sold to Tesla in their contracts.
So you say BYD? Samsung? LG Chem? Sure, sounds plausible, except I haven't read about any of them even planning to build anything even close to GF1. Meaning a, they will not have enough cells and b, whatever they produce cannot be as cheap as GF1 cells.
So at best, Audi brings out the E-tron R8, Q6, maybe something else, BMW does an i5 and Mercedes goes on its own for the B Class and each produce a couple thousand of these per year
I don't want to underestimate the competition, but they sure look like the board of Motorola, Nokia and Ericsson laughing at the iPhone in the early 2000s and then, years late, gearing up to crush Cupertino in a battle they already lost. (And I am not even an Apple fan
- Status
Similar threads
- Locked