I don't think this drop is irrational at all. It has nothing to do with TSLA, it is a market correction of biotech overvaluation, primarily, and as a high-flying NASDAQ stock, we get correlated. If you are trading short term (like the title of this thread), I would be very careful. If you are buy and hold then obviously have room to run.
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Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2015
- Thread starter Robert.Boston
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I don't think this drop is irrational at all. It has nothing to do with TSLA, it is a market correction of biotech overvaluation, primarily, and as a high-flying NASDAQ stock, we get correlated. If you are trading short term (like the title of this thread), I would be very careful. If you are buy and hold then obviously have room to run.
JRP3
Hyperactive Member
Don't know if it might have anything to do with the possible inclusion of Tesla in the Takata recall https://finance.yahoo.com/news/takata-air-bag-recalls-could-160413957.html
The NASDAQ drop that TSLA is following may not be irrational, but what I consider "irrational" is the notion that TSLA is worth less because of the macro market movement of the day. But yeah one must definitely be prepared to lose anything put on the table today if the trend continues.
Yes, due to price hiking of medication(s) and comments from certain U.S. official(s) wanting to look into such price hiking.
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That would be one of many factors for the downturn today. There's still no budget bill passed for the U.S. for next fiscal year, which begins in a few days.
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TSLA, like all stocks, does not trade in a vacuum. Selling begets selling, and when big drops happen in parts of portfolios, many begin to sell other stocks to raise cash. Analyst models that predicted rosy macro environments shift in real-time, and stocks sell off on that.
It is wise to realize that for most of the history of the US stock market, overall market movements affect individual stocks significantly, unless there is stock-specific news that resists that trend.
This week happens to be one for which there is pretty big news for TSLA. That gave me the courage to buy what so far has been a grand total of one call option contract which for better or worse I will almost certainly unload later this week. I had actually sold most of my holdings except core TSLA stock over the last couple weeks when it was between 254 and 266 because I see too much potential for TSLA malaise after this week.
As far as i know this affects pre 2008 cars only so at most it would involve some Roadsters and I suppose the cost is transferred to Takata. In any case the official NHTSA list of vehicles does not include any Teslas (yet).
Interestingly, J.B. is on the 40 under 40 list and wasn't listed as an "admirer" of Elon.
But... they would have had gatorade in the toilets too... such a plot hole!
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and "AP" is...?
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Maybe they asked JB and he was like "Meh, he is ok."
doggusfluffy
Closed
Johan
Ex got M3 in the divorce, waiting for EU Model Y!
Autopilot?
In fact I think many of us here overestimate the potential impact of Model X reveal and underestimate the impact of Firware 7.0 (likely including a more or less functioning autopilot).
100% agree with that.
If autopilot does work, I imagine it will be all over the news! I don't think people are expecting autopilot before some years... It could actually be tomorrow!
I don't know... I would think the opposite. Sure, if Tesla becomes the first company to produce a fully autonomous car in 3 years that will be a big deal. But right now the X is the "make or break" product in many sceptics eyes. Is Tesla just a one hit wonder, or can they make it again? After all the money that went into it will they finally start mass production and will demand be sustainable? Will all those magazines and reviewers be awed by something even more amazing than the S, or will the sequel flop?
An X launch revealing a few cool features creating buzz, followed by delivery reports, youtube reactions, reviews and awards will reassure the market step by step, little by little. How many articles have you read that went like "yes, yes, the S is great, but just wait until Audi/GM/Toyota/BMW, etc. gets serious about EVs, Tesla will be squashed"? It is now up to Tesla to prove it can become a multi product company creating one hit after the next. If the X takes the world by storm, the Model 3 will look like the BMW 3 Series killer, not the other way around
The reason the Volkswagen fiasco is causing a lot of volatility probably has something to do with the effect "buying back" 11 million vehicles will have on the economy. Technically, this means new car sales will need to be amended. Also, all of Volkswagen's suppliers face a similar problem. My guess is Volkswagen's suppliers and dealers will probably sue Volkswagen.
* Samsung was sued by its distributor for signing agreements involving products that infringed on various patents. A number of Samsung's distributors were and possibly still are suing to force Samsung to buy back certain merchandise that can't be sold and pay them additional damages.
http://www.cnbc.com/2015/09/28/vw-diesel-wolfsburg-shocked-by-volkswagen-gamble.html
Fla. Cellphone Distributor Sues Samsung Over Supply Contract - Law360
There is one question no-one has asked yet. What sort of damages are Volkswagen shareholders entitled to, because of the 60% drop in the stock that was the direct result of Vollswagen commuting fraud?
* Samsung was sued by its distributor for signing agreements involving products that infringed on various patents. A number of Samsung's distributors were and possibly still are suing to force Samsung to buy back certain merchandise that can't be sold and pay them additional damages.
http://www.cnbc.com/2015/09/28/vw-diesel-wolfsburg-shocked-by-volkswagen-gamble.html
Fla. Cellphone Distributor Sues Samsung Over Supply Contract - Law360
There is one question no-one has asked yet. What sort of damages are Volkswagen shareholders entitled to, because of the 60% drop in the stock that was the direct result of Vollswagen commuting fraud?
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MitchJi
Trying to learn kindness, patience & forgiveness
I think the reveal effect depends on three issues:
1. The MX will be (IMO) a big home run. How much of that understanding will the reveal event generate? Will there be a lot of test rides (or at least drives), by media and sig's, either at the event, or scheduled at the event for the next few days? This will be faster than with the MS. IMO the event itself, will be sufficient to generate significant support.
2. This is a wild card. The sig's will want to know when they can take delivery. The answer could range from "if you completed the configuration, you can either take your car home, or we will ship it immediately if you prefer", to a long delay, to worst of all some variation of "no comment". I think the related news will have at least a mildly positive effect, possibly even a strong positive effect.
3. Another wild card. Will the negative macro continue, and if so will the event related positives be strong enough to resist that trend?
In other words overall it's a crap shoot. I expect a positive bump, but no idea how much or how long it will last.
With all other recent Tesla events (at least those that I can remember), buy the rumor and sell the news worked very well. However, given the major macro event, this is muting the buy the rumor effect. My plan was to sell my J16's tomorrow just before the reveal but now I am not so sure. How is everyone else going to play this?
doggusfluffy
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I'd say buy into the event. Tesla is still only guiding for ~15,000 Model X sales in 2016, and hasn't officially guided for sales well beyond that figure. I also think there will be a few surprises about the Model X that no-one has discussed, or that aren't currently perceived to be significant.
Another positive, the Tesla event will happen a day after a big market sel off.
The main negative I can see is this week being the last week of the quarter.
If Tesla can do this perfecty, it will also position Tesla as a solution to the problems Volkswagen has created.
The recent weakness is probably partially due to a lot of funds with significant exposure to German automobile manufacturers rushing to rebalance their books.
Another positive, the Tesla event will happen a day after a big market sel off.
The main negative I can see is this week being the last week of the quarter.
If Tesla can do this perfecty, it will also position Tesla as a solution to the problems Volkswagen has created.
The recent weakness is probably partially due to a lot of funds with significant exposure to German automobile manufacturers rushing to rebalance their books.
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