It's funny, I see that as a signal to buy. If you believe the market is always right, which is implied by your statement, you'd never buy or sell anything because everything is already valued exactly as it should be.
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It's funny, I see that as a signal to buy. If you believe the market is always right, which is implied by your statement, you'd never buy or sell anything because everything is already valued exactly as it should be.
To further refine that point, if you look at the portfolio of bonds that are part of the ETF ticker JNK, the average yield is around 8%. SolarCity's bonds are trading at 11%. To boot these bonds have convertible option in them, if you remove the option value, the yields are even higher!
So to summerize, they are not trading close to junk, they are beyond junk.
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That's not the point. As I said just in the last page, the stock is not a "value". It is a "bet".
Some bulls here see this company going in a one way direction to heaven. I am just saying that is not guaranteed. Many of the market participants actually think that a one way direction to hell is just as likely. I am asking people to have an open mind and assess the situation as opposed to presuming that there is only one potential outcome which is a glorious success.
Please tell me anywhere on the planet where current long term contracts/mortgages/loans/leases are paid 99.4% on time over the course of a decade in business. Can you name one? I can.
Solarcity payments are highest quality payments you can find on the planet. Prove otherwise. All rating agencies rating Solarcity really believe they are high quality also, so whatever spin you're doing just doesn't jive with the cold hard facts.
Their bonds are worth a hell of a lot in the real world.
The Blue Owl
Endangerous Herbivore
Surely that is true about any investment, no? It's just that the perceived uncertainty is higher for some investments than for others. SCTY is more volatile because the bets made by market participants are all over the place. Doesn't make it a lower-quality investment, although it does make it riskier.
Agreed.
TheTalkingMule
Distributed Energy Enthusiast
Quite literally everything said here was said about TSLA not 3 years ago ON THIS VERY BOARD. Boggles the mind.
There's enough info in this thread that people should be able to read it and make up their own minds. We'll see what happens.
jhm
Well-Known Member
Ok, I go offline a few days and look at where the price goes. SCTY up 7.7%, very bullish price action. Bears test $25, but the price gets in range of $28.
IMHO, recent prices have been based on nothing but sour sentiment, but even sentiment can't last.
SolarCity will announce a new cost target for 2017. It will be well below $2.50/W. Progress in this direction will reenergize the stock. I think many investors will like the new strategy. I expect more to be revealed on Dec 15. Until then, prices will be soft, giving buyers very nice entry points. So the bet here is that SolarCity has a better strategy than current sentiment would reckon.
IMHO, recent prices have been based on nothing but sour sentiment, but even sentiment can't last.
SolarCity will announce a new cost target for 2017. It will be well below $2.50/W. Progress in this direction will reenergize the stock. I think many investors will like the new strategy. I expect more to be revealed on Dec 15. Until then, prices will be soft, giving buyers very nice entry points. So the bet here is that SolarCity has a better strategy than current sentiment would reckon.
A) This statement is obvious, but misleading. I didn't say Solar = Good is an investment thesis. I did however say that sane politicians will support sane policies. Those who are not sane, and oppose supporting clean energy, will ideally be voted out and/or ideally ignored. Even politicoans who claim to
believe Al Gore or China are operating a very complex conspiracy, can't ignore the fact that a shift to clean energy is good, and tremendously benefits the global economy. In my
view, those who are loud about supporting "big oil" will be silenced the same way those who supported "big tobacco" were.
B) There is no middle ground where SolarCity is only a little successful. Either SolarCity will go bankrupt or SolarCity will be very successful and will command a large share of the Solar industry. The current price assumes 0 growth, and SolarCity closing shop tomorrow. At $50, the market was pricing in 2016, and maybe part of 2017. At $27, SolarCity is a no brainier if you think it will exist in 2017, and will continue to gain new customers.
C) Your third point doesn't make sense. Are you trying to say you think SolarCity isn't planning on obtaining any new customers?
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Elon bought 198k more shares today. Approximately 500k shares over the past couple trading days...
jhm
Well-Known Member
I wonder what his objective is. It seems he could have gotten more shares at a lower price on Friday. Perhaps he is going to buy upto a certain price so as to put pressure on shorts. I guess we'll see how this plays in the coming days.
On August 24, when there was a market wide dip, Musk bought 123.5K shares. I bought some shares around that time too. I was quite pleased with Musk's purchase. He must be knowing something and the current price at the time of low 40's must be a "value", I figured.
Two months later we see that
- The company's sales are dropping
- Costs are going up
- Company stepping into subprime (despite claiming that the residential solar market is severely under-penetrated)
- There is a massive rewrite in the company's growth trajectory
- Stock and bonds trading at distressed levels
I learnt my lesson.
Musk being the father of the company, so to speak, wants to show moral support. Maybe its helpful for employee morale and such.
If he really wants to make a difference, he should take some tough decisions, like fire Lyndon and half the staff at top tier, change the quarterly reporting dramatically coming out clean with all the numbers, and spearhead a change in business model.
Things like that will compel me to buy some of the shares that I sold.
You are losing all credibility with me. Firing Lyndon would be about as useful as chopping off one of his feet.
Maybe after he fires Lyndon he can step down as CTO of Spacex and be ceo of three companies
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TheTalkingMule
Distributed Energy Enthusiast
This guy is so obviously full of it, it's not even worth discussing anymore. If someone can't read his posts and see right through it, they deserve to lose their money.
It appears that you are not objecting to anything else in that post except that firing Lyndon is a bad idea. That is a matter of opinion and your opinion is fine by me.
It is subtle but you probably didn't notice the word "like" in that phrase. The point is not so much the specific things I listed need to be executed. The point is that something dramatically should change with respect to the company. The bonds and stock didn't fall to distressed levels for no reason. Something ought to change to make the original vision come true.
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With respect to SolarCity, in the current situation, unfortunately the truth is harsh. If you are only interested in a hype-ball bullish-bubble discussion, please ignore me as I asked before.
If you go to my profile page, there is an "Add to ignore list" button. Try that.
From the new Fastcompany article:
[FONT=MuseoSans, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif]"To try to avoid this in the future, Powell plans to offer the Tesla Powerwall to her customers as an add-on. For $30 a month, Green Mountain customers will get a Tesla battery that would save them in the event of a power outage while allowing Green Mountain to tap into the batteries rather than using backup generators when demand spikes on hot days. Eventually, she thinks that the savings from this approach could allow her company to give the batteries to customers for free."[/FONT]
Thats an interesting, straightforward approach.
[FONT=MuseoSans, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif]"To try to avoid this in the future, Powell plans to offer the Tesla Powerwall to her customers as an add-on. For $30 a month, Green Mountain customers will get a Tesla battery that would save them in the event of a power outage while allowing Green Mountain to tap into the batteries rather than using backup generators when demand spikes on hot days. Eventually, she thinks that the savings from this approach could allow her company to give the batteries to customers for free."[/FONT]
Thats an interesting, straightforward approach.
TheTalkingMule
Distributed Energy Enthusiast
Was taking a look at the SCTY executive mix from their site, then looking up videos on these guys to see how they articulate various concepts in solar.
Got to Radford Small (SVP, Structured Finance) and found videos of him talking complex financials at some solar symposium in 2011 back when he worked at Goldman. This is the guy you send off to CNBC to discuss the model. Not a knock on Lyndon in any way at all, he's the one who I assume built this excellent model, he's just not the guy to spit it out to the talking heads and make people understand.
This video (at 32:04) illustrates how a guy who didn't even work for SCTY and was talking from a 2011 perspective really got it right. When asked about which sectors are most difficult to analyze, one drunk panelist starts talking about buy side analysts having a difficult time with solar and this guy brought it back to logic.
Got to Radford Small (SVP, Structured Finance) and found videos of him talking complex financials at some solar symposium in 2011 back when he worked at Goldman. This is the guy you send off to CNBC to discuss the model. Not a knock on Lyndon in any way at all, he's the one who I assume built this excellent model, he's just not the guy to spit it out to the talking heads and make people understand.
This video (at 32:04) illustrates how a guy who didn't even work for SCTY and was talking from a 2011 perspective really got it right. When asked about which sectors are most difficult to analyze, one drunk panelist starts talking about buy side analysts having a difficult time with solar and this guy brought it back to logic.
exactly. Lyndon is the public face for spreading the awareness on the mainstream media circuit. Someone like radford to talk to the goofballs on CNBC, Bloomberg, and any other financial news puppet show.
gavine
Petrol Head turned EV Enthusiast
He always eats a dry sandwich before he does interviews for good luck.
I kid, no, I think it's a nervous tick when public speaking. He also figits a lot. Elon has similar ticks as well.
I think it is a positive in that he is a real person, not fake. A little endearing too. An empathetic quality.
However, this doesn't mean you get manhandled by interviewers or not explain the promise of the business effectively.
a combination of likability and polish is the winning combo. He needs to work on that message polish, at least the financial speak part. If he doesn't want to, just delegate the task to someone who can. He doesn't need to do the minutiae. He needs the big shows like Colbert, Fallon, and kimmel.... The morning shows and such. Create that public awareness Lyndon!
TheTalkingMule
Distributed Energy Enthusiast
See, I disagree. You put him on Colbert and ask him to articulate the value proposition to the world and it won't come across in any way the public will absorb. It's been tried a bunch of times and isn't working. There are plenty of people within that exec team that could be out doing these shows and spreading the word. Delegate.
You don't have a software engineer talk to people, that should be rule #1.
You don't have a software engineer talk to people, that should be rule #1.
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