SolarCity (SCTY)

[jhm]

Tesla Motors Inc Refutes IER’s Claim Of 38-year Powerwall Payback Period

It's curious to see a Kock political proxy organization attack Powerwall. Apparently, the Koch brothers find this threatening. It is true, of course, that a flat retail rate plan with NEM obviates most of the need for home batteries. But if utilities what to push complex rate plans to curtail rooftop solar, then Powerwalls limits the options to a solar resistant utility. Batteries defeat TOU pricing, demand charges, low feed in tariffs, and high fixed rates (that push solar customer off grid). This is the real problem for Koch minions. Powerwalls remain as a policy hedge. Koch knows this.

 

[smorgasbord]

SolarCity Inevitable Downward Spiral Has Begun

Summary

Latest analyst report from Bernstein shows an egregious Reg FD violation as well as a damning about face for the Company.

We believe this about face is tied to SolarCity witnessing troubles with increased capital costs while at the same time seeing the market discount residential assets.

We make a case why an inevitable downward spiral for the stock has begun.

 

[Foghat]

City of Las Vegas fights back against PUC/NV energy decision with a strong reaction... Welcome to city ordinances for rooftop solar.

3000 installs happen in 2015 (out of 5k total since 2009)in Las Vegas which only represents 2% of all rooftops in the city. Mayor pro tem says a lot more room to grow...

Restoring The Viability Of Residential Solar Projects In The City Of Las Vegas on Livestream

It's also interesting that not one person on the PUC or staff has rooftop solar.

 

[Lessmog]

NV Energy is not that kind of smart. They just think they are entitled to make a profit on the backs of captive ratepayers. And they believe the government will always protect them from competition. That's pretty dumb. Nevada voters are too smart to put up with that.

1. Voters have to register and actually vote, right?
2. In order to vote non-dumb, voters need adequate and accurate information. Where from - FOX?
3. Most people will also need an easily understood, brief and plausible explanation how things are connected, and why the Koch dog whistle instead leads them to slaughter.

Good luck & happy hunting. (I mean that!)

 

[jhm]

City of Las Vegas fights back against PUC/NV energy decision with a strong reaction... Welcome to city ordinances for rooftop solar.

3000 installs happen in 2015 (out of 5k total since 2009)in Las Vegas which only represents 2% of all rooftops in the city. Mayor pro tem says a lot more room to grow...

Restoring The Viability Of Residential Solar Projects In The City Of Las Vegas on Livestream

It's also interesting that not one person on the PUC or staff has rooftop solar.

What's going on?

I'd love it if Las Vegas were to establish their own municipal power company. I'm sure certain LV strip businesses would like that too. I'm sure that LV ratepayers pay well more than their fair share for the grid. Urban areas have alway cross subsidized the grid for rural areas. So if LV broke free from NV Energy, the utility would be in serious trouble.

 

[Lessmog]

Tables turning, eh?

 

[aznt1217]

Struggling to understand this massive dip. Even with the PUC actions in Nevada, it really makes no sense. I might even sell all my TSLA and go into SCTY. This is just crazy.

 

[Foghat]

What's going on?

I'd love it if Las Vegas were to establish their own municipal power company. I'm sure certain LV strip businesses would like that too. I'm sure that LV ratepayers pay well more than their fair share for the grid. Urban areas have alway cross subsidized the grid for rural areas. So if LV broke free from NV Energy, the utility would be in serious trouble.

GTM report today said out of over 500 energy industry professionals regulators, solar companies, policy makers, etc... Over 70% believe retail or value of solar is the right valuation of rooftop solar. A supermajority of actual brain trust basically have said what Nevada is doing is completely unfounded and confounding.

JHM, to get to buffet and $900 nat gas plant... He absolutely has to pay no capital outlay to get that plant developed and running. That's the whole point of a regulated public utiltiy... they go to the commission and ask for rate increases to cover it! Then, they also get a higher profit return for investors in return because of the garanteed 10% rate of return!

its even more of an incentive to have a very sympathetic PUC & PUC staff on your side. Take for example this:

NV Energy hasn’t paid IRS since 2000; kept millions intended for taxes - Friday, May 29, 2015 | 8:12 a.m. - Las Vegas Sun Mobile

The same PUC staffer, Anne-Marie cuneo, that came up with the new rooftop rate plan is also the same person who said it was okay for NV Energy to not pay taxes owed to the government and then not disclose where that tax money went. Odd thing is they started paying taxes after someone asked a few questions.

- - - Updated - - -

Struggling to understand this massive dip. Even with the PUC actions in Nevada, it really makes no sense. I might even sell all my TSLA and go into SCTY. This is just crazy.

My only thought is there might be speculation the recent ABS might be held up because of Nevada Anti grandfathering. Again, this is my only possible thought, but we'll have to see. So much propaganda coming out of political groups it's clearly war with some extreme political idealogs and big utiltiy/fossil fuel vested interests.

this came to light yesterday where California utiltiy is putting out false info "leaflets" to customers about net metering just before PUC is to decide on new rate design:

http://www.stellarsolar.net/CALSEIA-flyer.pdf

 

[dakh]

Struggling to understand this massive dip. Even with the PUC actions in Nevada, it really makes no sense. I might even sell all my TSLA and go into SCTY. This is just crazy.

Look at MBLY, similar price action. Folks are de-risking me thinks.

 

[jhm]

GTM report today said out of over 500 energy industry professionals regulators, solar companies, policy makers, etc... Over 70% believe retail or value of solar is the right valuation of rooftop solar. A supermajority of actual brain trust basically have said what Nevada is doing is completely unfounded and confounding.

JHM, to get to buffet and $900 nat gas plant... He absolutely has to pay no capital outlay to get that plant developed and running. That's the whole point of a regulated public utiltiy... they go to the commission and ask for rate increases to cover it! Then, they also get a higher profit return for investors in return because of the garanteed 10% rate of return!

its even more of an incentive to have a very sympathetic PUC & PUC staff on your side. Take for example this:

NV Energy hasn’t paid IRS since 2000; kept millions intended for taxes - Friday, May 29, 2015 | 8:12 a.m. - Las Vegas Sun Mobile

The same PUC staffer, Anne-Marie cuneo, that came up with the new rooftop rate plan is also the same person who said it was okay for NV Energy to not pay taxes owed to the government and then not disclose where that tax money went. Odd thing is they started paying taxes after someone asked a few questions.

- - - Updated - - -



My only thought is there might be speculation the recent ABS might be held up because of Nevada Anti grandfathering. Again, this is my only possible thought, but we'll have to see. So much propaganda coming out of political groups it's clearly war with some extreme political idealogs and big utiltiy/fossil fuel vested interests.

this came to light yesterday where California utiltiy is putting out false info "leaflets" to customers about net metering just before PUC is to decide on new rate design:

http://www.stellarsolar.net/CALSEIA-flyer.pdf

This tax issue is really interesting. The PUC lets NV Energy make a 12%, not 10%, profit off of ratepayers. Then they collect these taxes from private project and pocket that too. So they are getting away with more than 12% rate of return.

It seems that it may be beneficial for the IRS to step in and actually audit utilities on this. If the utilities have not actually documented the benefits to ratepayers that for the basis of non-payment of taxes, then the IRS should sue for tax evasion. It seems that the IRS may be giving the utilities too much benefit of the doubt because of PUC oversight. But obviously the PUCs are not too concerned about tax evasion.

I would love to see the Obama administration take this up. If utilities are taking advantage of weak tax law enforcement, this is a corruption and it is corrupting. This sort of thing only serves to make the playing field very uneven, which works against the advance of renewable energy through economic competition.

It is becoming clear to me that NV Energy is very hypocritical about cost shifting. To them rooftop solar allegedly shifting $1.20/month per ratepayer is an offense worthy of punitive rate action, but they are eager to shift $12.87/month to ratepayers for $900M gas peaker on which they get a 12% annual return. It boogies the mind. I bet they look with luat at those SolarCity solar systems, thinking they should be making 12% per year on those assets. It must really burn them that someone is cutting into their racket.

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Las Vegas rooftop solar financing plan proposed despite PUC decision | Las Vegas Review-Journal

It's good to watch the video to get a sense of how concerned the City of Las Vegas is about recent policies coming out of the PUC. Right now the city is able to help with financing through Special Investment Districts for solar and batteries. But the city will be looking at other options. I would recommend they look into removing Las Vegas from the service area of NV Energy and allowing mulple entities provide electricity within the city. No more monopoly.

 

[gene]

SolarCity CEO: Governor Sandoval's PUC Owes Nevadans the Truth about Decision to Kill Rooftop Solar

On CNN! Nice headline: SolarCity CEO: Governor Sandoval's PUC Owes Nevadans the Truth about Decision to Kill Rooftop Solar

 

[Foghat]

SolarCity CEO: Governor Sandoval's PUC Owes Nevadans the Truth about Decision to Kill Rooftop Solar

On CNN! Nice headline: SolarCity CEO: Governor Sandoval's PUC Owes Nevadans the Truth about Decision to Kill Rooftop Solar

I wouldn't be surprised if an IRS audit by the federal government on NV Energy might come soon. This would be simultaneous to federal anti-trust probes of NV Energy and possibly explore Nevada federal funds being frozen if the state doesn't take action to curb interstate commerce violations.

A lot of things could be pursued here and Lyndon's warning in your posted article signals he will explore all of them in the coming days...

 

[jhm]

SolarCity CEO: Governor Sandoval's PUC Owes Nevadans the Truth about Decision to Kill Rooftop Solar

On CNN! Nice headline: SolarCity CEO: Governor Sandoval's PUC Owes Nevadans the Truth about Decision to Kill Rooftop Solar

Indeed. It's good to put that $11k figure out there. This is how much the rate action will add to a solar customer's power bills over the next 20 years.

So in the name of fairness, NV Energy will gouge $11,000 on 17,000 solar customers to avoid spreading the alleged cost of $1.11/month over all ratepayers, even though all ratepayers will benefit from cleaner air and lower utility rate inflation over the next 30 years.

What conclusion Rive did not draw out, however, is that NV Energy will never collect the full $11,000 from these solar owner, and what is not collected is just pushed back onto all remaining ratepayers. Why? For $11k, most solar owners can and likely will go off grid. $11k can easily buy you one or two Powerwalls for daily use and a generator for deep backup. So off the grid they good. Those who get left behind will may more than an additional $1.11 per month. Why? Because these solar customers brought about 85 MW to the grid mostly at peak hours. This is about 127GWh per year with about 31 GWh of exported to neighbors. To replace this requires an additional 100 MW gas peaker which, my friends, will cost ratepayers an extra $12.86 per month. This is in addition to the $1.11 per month that pushing solar off grid was supposed to cover. So this is now a $13.97 increase to ratepayers.

So let's put this together. NV Energy tries to heap $11,000 on solar customers over the next 20 year. This backfires, as solar customers go off grid. Consequently, remaining ratepayers have an extra $3350 added to their power bills over 20 years. All this is in the name of fairness to avoid an alleged cost shift of $267 over 20 years. In this lovely mess all ratepayers pay more, and NV Energy couldn't be happier.

 

[dakh]

Maybe a dumb question but here goes: if I have solar and battery, is there anything on the books that will require me to even let the utility know I got all that? Also, if I don't let them know and I'm not planning to sell back to the grid, my battery is full and it's noon, what are the ways to burn the excess off?

 

[jhm]

Maybe a dumb question but here goes: if I have solar and battery, is there anything on the books that will require me to even let the utility know I got all that? Also, if I don't let them know and I'm not planning to sell back to the grid, my battery is full and it's noon, what are the ways to burn the excess off?

That is a good question. I've heard that some installers are offering batteries that are on a separate electrical system to prevent feedback from battery back into the grid. This is to avoid ridulous utility rules that forbid buying power from the grid and selling it back. I've heard of other situations where people have two grid connections so that they can access different rateplans, like a fixed plan for net metering solar and a TOU plan for charging an EV at night for cheap. So folks will do all sorts of things to work around whatever the utility is dishing out.

I do not know what is specifically legal in Nevada, but I would expect some solar owners to install without grid connection. Essentially, the high solar fees with trivial export rate makes connecting your solar to the grid more of a liability than asset. If this is specifically illegal, then SolarCity is too big of a target to do it. But I suspect one could find small installers who won't give a ****. There are some folks who will be more attracted to solar if you tell them NV Energy won't let you do it. When time comes to bug out in the desert, your going to need your panels.

 

[traxila]

Yeah, I got a lot of SCTY. Thinking about buying more. Thought the same last week. Point I am getting at - target buy points. Looks like at the very least we are going to hit 52 week low. Thoughts?

BTW, I am sticking to my thesis that part of the explanation for this fossil fuel swoon is that status quo perfectly happy with the idea that this might annihilate the alternative energy industry. Lot of factors at play here, but they might be successful.

 

[dalalsid]

My 2017 leaps are currently worthless

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Gonna buy some 2018 options. Anyone have insights into this dip other than oil and Nevada?

Worried about 2017 leaps? Why? What's changed? All this Nevada/oil dip will do is hopefully build up a higher percentage of short interest.

 

[Foghat]

Gonna buy some 2018 options. Anyone have insights into this dip other than oil and Nevada?

Worried about 2017 leaps? Why? What's changed? All this Nevada/oil dip will do is hopefully build up a higher percentage of short interest.

Outside of Nevada, Massechusets is set to determine net metering policy soon. The governor there has made some disparaging statements on net metering so I expect some negative influence in whatever that legislature decides. Also, Claifornia PUC decides on net metering next week, so might add to the uncertainty in the stock as well.

I think the Nevada raised he big question mark, fear, uncertainty, around grandfathering with the Nevada PUC decision. I think this has put a wait and see attitude toward ABS mayhe until the smoke has cleared... Again, just my speculation, but CFO said (at q3 conf call) three more ABS were likely in Q1 with over $600mln ready to be securitized and we haven't seen one yet half way through the quarter.

in my opinion, investors will once again yo yo this back up when the results of solar+storage integrated into the California grid start coming out soon. Solarcity is already working on the interoperability standard that will apply to all inverters, solar installs, storage, and all smart home devices.... And if you don't think having 1/3 of the entire market where this standard would be applied to all future installs regardless if they are Solarcity or not, is a huge deal for company value, then think again. Just watch what comes out of California soon and we'll see where Solarcity stock goes.

Also, Solarcity is doing really really well in all their other markets outside of Nevada, especially Claifornia, Arizona(APS territory), and New York. I wouldn't be surprised at install guidance beats and continued big growth on installs for q2 guidance.

esoecially in California and New York, grandfathered is secured. With the net metering caps in both states closing out by the end of this year, a rush to obtain solar before the change will accelerate very soon. California utiltiy territories could start to hit one by one this summer/fall.

bottomline, the complete opposite sentiment of the stock right now is happening in reality in Solarcity national install and booking numbers... Yo yo will come back up soon enough.

 

[blakegallagher]

My 2017 leaps are currently worthless

Same :\