SolarCity (SCTY)

[neroden]

I'm no expert, but I think the main thing holding SCTY back is the lack of an obvious difference between the cost and value of the watts they are installing.

I'd generally agree, but I'd add that their prices charged to the consumer *also* have to be competitive with the competition. If they have a solid positive margin but everyone is undercutting them on price, then nobody will believe that they'll retain volume.

Right now, it's not clear that they've got a significant positive margin, *and* it's not clear that they are competitive on price! Clear up those two questions and the stock will jump and stay up.

3) Make real progress in cutting costs towards $2.25 - their 2017 goal.

This would be what would prove they could be highly profitable.

Once SCTY can demonstrate a spread >$0.50 per watt on their systems I think the stock will rise above $50.

If this can be done while their sales price is comparable to other installers *worldwide*. With a $2.25/watt all-in cost they could probably do this.... though the utility scale sector is delivering for $1.33/watt, or $1.54/watt with tracking, so there's still room for more efficient rooftop installers to undercut that price.

 

[doggusfluffy]

I think it's weird how the financial news/stock markets are so bi-polar regarding solar:
Solar is great and a benefit to us all!
Californians Just Saved $192 Million Thanks to Efficiency and Rooftop Solar

Solar is doomed...especially SolarCity!
Solar Panel Leasing Decreases as More Customers Look to Buy

 

[TheTalkingMule]

It's in their interest to create volatility. Getting our solar information from hedge fund backed news blogs is about as logical as getting political news from Facebook.

 

[anticitizen13.7]

A guy at the Tesla shareholder annual meeting just accused SolarCity of stealing 30,000 $US worth of carbon fibre and titanium frames from his barn.

 

[GoTslaGo]

Stolen bike guy that they're talking about on the short term thread?

 

[anticitizen13.7]

Stolen bike guy that they're talking about on the short term thread?

Yeah. Elon's responses was basically: (1) I don't run Solar City and (2) Ask SCTY questions at the Solar City shareholder meeting.

 

[doggusfluffy]

Here are 2 vastly different approaches juxtaposed:

South Australia Launches Largest Trial Of Rooftop Solar & Energy Storage

“In the next few years we will need to act to meet localised demand growth in Salisbury. We want to work with customers to avoid the need to invest in new poles and wires,” said Paul Roberts, SAPN’s head of stakeholder relations.

“Instead of building a new power line, we would like to see whether we can defer or avoid that by tapping into local solar PV generation and combining this with energy storage.”

Escalator charges anyone?
Arizona Public Service pushes residential demand charges in new rate case

While residential customers would see nearly 8% annual bill increases, APS said the average bill increase for all customers under the new plan would be 5.74%.

The higher residential rates are due to the net energy metering-caused cross-subsidy to owners of distributed generation, the utility said. The APS calculation of the cross-subsidy is based on its “cost of service” methodology which is currently under scrutiny in the ACC’s value of solar proceeding.

 

[drinkerofkoolaid]

Yeah. Elon's responses was basically: (1) I don't run Solar City and (2) Ask SCTY questions at the Solar City shareholder meeting.

Stolen bike guy looked like a bizarre plant, or maybe a comedian hired to confuse short sellers.
Who let that guy into the building?

From a distance, the person almost looked like Trump from this skit he did years ago.

http://www.taxjusticeblog.org/images/trumpfarmer.jpg

 

[Johan]

<S>With their fraudulent accounting practices and sneaky PPAs I wouldn't be surprised if they steal lots of bicycles too </s>

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Arizona Public Service pushes residential demand charges in new rate case

Lower demand means higher prices are needed to fill the profit gap. Good luck with that.

The idea that anyone will be "stuck" with SolarCity PPA rates in 5 years is preposterous. APS is here begging for an 8% increase in residential rates to keep their racket afloat.

This is gonna be fun to watch. Any word on when the actual APS vs. SCTY arbitration hearing will take place? Or is it ongoing?

 

[neroden]

Demand charges *for everyone* actually work out very well financially for solar + battery. If you're at home during the day, solar peak-shaves. If your peak is early evening, your battery peak-shaves.

Demand charges applied *only* to people with solar panels are just a scam and an attack on solar, of course.

 

[drinkerofkoolaid]

More BS by APS attempting to hold back progress, and maintain business as usual. If the utilities don't get with the picture, the utilities will run into big problems once battery storage is everywhere. It's not the fault of customers with Solar Power that the utilities are unwilling to cut back on appropriations and funds set aside for additional generation facilities that will be obsolete and redundant before they ever goes online.

BREAKING: Arizona Public Service attempts to weaken net metering - again

 

[doggusfluffy]

Demand charges *for everyone* actually work out very well financially for solar + battery. If you're at home during the day, solar peak-shaves. If your peak is early evening, your battery peak-shaves.

Demand charges applied *only* to people with solar panels are just a scam and an attack on solar, of course.

Couldn't Tesla and SolarCity counter with an off-grid battery and solar package directly competing with the utility by financing their own monthly fee? Why bother paying their demand charge if you already have a cheaper alternative utility available since you're only subsidizing the increasingly expensive fossil fuel assets?

APS seeks $11 monthly rate hike, demand charges

The rate hike is needed, officials said, to help pay for the additional gas generators being built at the Tempe Ocotillo Power Plant, environmental controls on the Four Corners Power Plant in New Mexico, and other grid upgrades.

 

[SBenson]

Published today SolarCity Launches Solar Loan Program in 14 States

It would be great if someone can verify the pricing claims by actually getting them to price your home (and even better compare with local installers). Mule, up for it?

 

[gene]

This article a little more substance: SolarCity launches new rooftop loan product to replace MyPower offering

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Published today SolarCity Launches Solar Loan Program in 14 States

It would be great if someone can verify the pricing claims by actually getting them to price your home (and even better compare with local installers). Mule, up for it?

People have posted SCTY quotes in the Energy Forum and I've been pleasantly surprised by the /W price. Not that I want SCTY doing straight installs or anything.........

 

[dandurston]

Sounds good. Why don't you like straight installs TTMule?

 

[electracity]

Couldn't Tesla and SolarCity counter with an off-grid battery and solar package directly competing with the utility by financing their own monthly fee? Why bother paying their demand charge if you already have a cheaper alternative utility available since you're only subsidizing the increasingly expensive fossil fuel assets?

That can't work where central air conditioning is a requirement.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Sounds good. Why don't you like straight installs TTMule?

Residential solar is a massive untapped market, I don't want SCTY doing anything that isn't unique and commands a high premium. Their PPA has unique value that commands a high premium, installs can be done by anyone.

I'm fine with them doing profitable installs just to keep the gears churning in new markets, but I don't want the brand diluted. Not that anyone has a good image of the brand in the first place.........

 

[TheTalkingMule]

That can't work where central air conditioning is a requirement.

Off-grid no, but a moderately sized battery coupled with solar could be a successful move to counter demand charges and other tactics in the chess game against utility greed.

Another instance where SCTY as an energy provider is a better option than a local solar installer. When the utility makes a rate change to screw over solar customers, SCTY can swoop in with a simple solution as long as battery costs decline at the projected rate.