SolarCity (SCTY)

[doggusfluffy]

Solar providers look to storage technology to boost industry

Last year, the state stopped its lucrative rooftop solar program. which allowed consumers to sell excess electricity back to the grid at retail prices. The state then created a replacement program, which capped the amount of electricity that could be re-sold.

But now that those caps have been hit, battery storage is the only viable option for consumers.

First Solar Beats Earnings, Misses Revenue and Accelerates Move to Series 6 Module

"Even just as of today, there's still about 9 gigawatts of utility-scale solar that has a contract in place and an expected 2016 commercial operation date. Aside from that, you have another 12 gigawatts with a contract in place for after 2016." Additionally, the renewable portfolio standard is receding as the dominant driver for utility-scale solar, and new drivers are emerging.

 

[doggusfluffy]

Tesla merger bid for SolarCity wins key support - The Buffalo News

"The transaction is a necessary step toward Tesla's goal of being an integrated sustainable energy company," said the report from Institutional Shareholder Services. "Additionally, it appears reasonable to assume that Tesla is paying a low to no premium to take over SolarCity."

Tucson Electric puts huge solar, wind projects out to bid

As part of its pending rate case, TEP has asked to expand a pilot program in which the utility installs solar panels on the roofs of customers who pay a flat monthly fee for power.

The utility also has asked the Arizona Corporation Commission for permission to launch a new residential solar program, in which TEP would build neighborhood-scale solar farms and offer nearby customers the power from those facilities at a flat rate.

But solar-industry advocates say the proposed company-owned solar programs would allow TEP to compete unfairly and help kill off the state’s residential rooftop solar industry.

 

[doggusfluffy]

Florida voters say no to misleading solar amendment

By 8:30 p.m. EST and with nearly three-quarters of precincts reporting, the vote was almost evenly split, falling short of the 60 percent needed for a state constitutional amendment to become law.

 

[Lessmog]

Florida voters say no to misleading solar amendment

Lyndon Rive comments:

Congratulations to the people of Florida for rejecting Amendment 1 and protecting the state's solar future. For too long Florida has been the sleeping giant of the solar industry. Today, the public took historic action to choose a future powered by solar energy, as Floridians from all walks of life wisely saw through the utilities' $26 million deceptive campaign. By voting No on Amendment 1, Floridians have affirmed individuals' right to generate their own solar power, which is cleaner and will create local jobs that cannot be outsourced.

I want to express deep gratitude to the following that played a critical role in protecting Florida's solar industry:

 

[Johan]

Could it be that the move for TSLA to aquire SCTY springs from an early premonition of Tesla's and Elon's part that in fact the probability of Trump winning the election has actully been much bigger than many thought. I.e. because of biased media reporting leading up to the election we didn't get a true picture of what was going on in the US. But that Elon and co. could see thing for what they were and were compelled to protect the SCTY business, which would have been extremely vulnerable at the current stage standing on it's own legs without ITC, which not unlikely will be stepped down or removed under a Trump reign with a Republican senate?

 

[Lessmog]

Could it be that the move for TSLA to aquire SCTY springs from an early premonition of Tesla's and Elon's part that in fact the probability of Trump winning the election has actully been much bigger than many thought. I.e. because of biased media reporting leading up to the election we didn't get a true picture of what was going on in the US. But that Elon and co. could see thing for what they were and were compelled to protect the SCTY business, which would have been extremely vulnerable at the current stage standing on it's own legs without ITC, which not unlikely will be stepped down or removed under a Trump reign with a Republican senate?

Nah, Elon is all about basic physical principles. I doubt any metaphysics. Business no-brainer, he said. Occam's toothbrush?

Not to deny he/they could have sensed a danger in the American public ethos via media drama and hedged accordingly, but that would be secondary.

 

[Ulmo]

Yesterday in the conf call I believe they said they plan to post earnings next Wednesday.

Lyndon Rive said "We’ll be releasing the number of Q3 on Wednesday -- next week Wednesday." That's today.

 

[RDoc]

I'm not a stockholder in either Tesla or Solar City, but I do think Trump's election is a huge threat to both companies and any others who rely on subsidies and favorable treatment for environmental projects. Militant disbelief in global warming and environmental threats in general are one area the Trump and the Republican Congressional majority strongly agree on.

To me, Tesla seems like it's in decent shape to weather the storm but Solar City seems likely to be roadkill.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

trump doesn't align himself with establishment interests, that's his one defining characteristic. His world is based on hatred toward folks like "New York elites" which to him likely includes the Koch brothers and Buffets of the world. I don't see attacking renewables or EVs being high on his agenda since deficit reduction does not even appear on his agenda. The only reason Trump brought up Telsa or Solyndra was he knew what would easily gain traction in an election.

I think the ITC and Obamacare will go untouched......though I find trust wavering in my prognostications these days.

 

[Rarity]

Did Trump ever bring up Tesla?

 

[SBenson]

Mule, you are always fun to have a chat with...

It's kind of ironic, Trump is actually one of the "NY elites". A successful billionaire who lived all his life in NYC. He literally has a gold plated penthouse in NYC. For what ever reason he simply doesn't get along very well with other billionaires. Just very weird. My thinking is that he is too much of a ego manic to get along with anyone.

He might not touch clean energy except for letting whatever subsidies expire on their own schedule. But I believe he will de-regulate (or even subsidize further) fossil fuels dramatically, which lower their costs and make them more competitive with clean energy. That's the real risk for clean energy. But if Musk is able to do what he says he wants to do, like build machines that build machines etc, TSLA/SCTY might still be able to compete with de-regulated fossil fuels. However, the fight just got lot tougher.

 

[doggusfluffy]

I guess we'll have to see how much was campaign rhetoric, but I'm not very optimistic.
Solar, wind companies see stocks fall after Trump win

But analysts weren’t clear about how Trump could revive coal. “This was a central campaign promise,” Ferguson said. “He hoped to bring back coal jobs to Appalachia and other areas but the weakness in the coal industry to date hasn’t really been brought about by environmental regulations. It’s been more a function of gas prices being as low as they are.”

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Mule, you are always fun to have a chat with...

It's kind of ironic, Trump is actually one of the "NY elites". A successful billionaire who lived all his life in NYC. He literally has a gold plated penthouse in NYC. For what ever reason he simply doesn't get along very well with other billionaires. Just very weird. My thinking is that he is too much of a ego manic to get along with anyone.

Frontline once again did by far the best pieces on the candidates and was very illuminating. Trump essentially got dropped off at military boarding school at 12 likely after 11 years of being ignored. His world is about righting the wrongs done to him, not about let's say......protecting coal/railroad investments.

He might not touch clean energy except for letting whatever subsidies expire on their own schedule. But I believe he will de-regulate (or even subsidize further) fossil fuels dramatically, which lower their costs and make them more competitive with clean energy. That's the real risk for clean energy. But if Musk is able to do what he says he wants to do, like build machines that build machines etc, TSLA/SCTY might still be able to compete with de-regulated fossil fuels. However, the fight just got lot tougher.

He might attempt to deregulate, but it's not an area I would see him expending a lot of effort and political capital. Someone like Romney or Cheney would be far worse for solar's interests. Think about the headwinds in places like Nevada. How could it possibly be any worse now than it was last year when the utility dictated policy absolutely?

I'm not an expert, but isn't true deregulation a boon for solar/wind?

It's also far easier to add renewables jobs than to somehow rejuvenate the coal industry. If you have no dog in the race, why not appease the masses in the easiest way possible?

We shall see. My concerns are much more about what's done with the nuclear codes.

 

[GoTslaGo]

I guess we'll have to see how much was campaign rhetoric, but I'm not very optimistic.
Solar, wind companies see stocks fall after Trump win

I suspect he will bring back coal with blocking imports of steel. IIRC most recent coal failure was because demand for steel crashed. Nat gas is just too competitive to make coal economical for generating electricity.

 

[Turing]

I suspect he will bring back coal with blocking imports of steel. IIRC most recent coal failure was because demand for steel crashed. Nat gas is just too competitive to make coal economical for generating electricity.

Much like the myth of bringing back those good old manufacturing jobs, isn't a big reason for the loss of coal jobs, not just the decline of coal due to fracking and nat gas but also coal production becoming more automated and requiring less workers per ton of output?

 

[SBenson]

Q3 data is out.

The best way to look at SCTY financials is to aggregate
- change in debt
- change in NPV of the contracts (excluding renewal)
- change in cash.

If you put it all together, SCTY burnt another $43mln cash in Q3 (out of the existing portfolio).

If you net out Capex, R&D, it's still a negative figure.

 

[AudubonB]

Nut & Bolts from 3Q results:

Letter states that SCTY expects to have a full-year install of 900MW, which means they're planning on installing a full 300MW in this final quarter. That's a huge increase from 3Q's 187MW, and handsomely greater than the prior record quarter - 4Q15 - with 272MW

 

[tftf]

Another great quarter.

Shareholders, make sure you vote YES on that merger.

Remember the combined entity (TSLA and SCTY) will be worth one trillion $ within a decade or so, that's according to Elon Musk:

Elon Musk sees Tesla (TSLA) becoming a trillion dollar market cap company with the SolarCity (SCTY) merger

I think he's being too conservative (as he is most of the time).

 

[tander]

I hope that was enough to get a few upgrades out of it. Wonder if this will quell the bankruptcy assertions?

 

[schonelucht]

The best way to look at SCTY financials is to aggregate
- change in debt
- change in NPV of the contracts (excluding renewal)
- change in cash.

Did you include changes in inventories, prepaid expenses and accounts payable/receivable as well? From an asset point of view (negative is bad) I get respectively $-23M, +$17M, $-39M and $+2M.