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Speculation: configuration queue for non owner line waiters
- Thread starter McHoffa
- Start date
MKandyman
Member
sreams
Member
Probably a mistake on Tesla's part. There are many non-owners in CA who were closer to the front of the line who currently have Dec-Feb.
I've come to realize that Elon says a lot of things. Some of those things are true (unregulated AI should scare people), and some are less true (Model 3 production will grow exponentially very soon).
My wife wants a new car before our next kid arrives (due in late spring). When I made the reservation almost 2 years ago, the second kid wasn't on our radar, and at the time I naively thought we'd probably have the car by now. Since then, she, with the help of her mom's group, decided that an ICE SUV would be a better option for us than a Model 3 she's never seen in person.
So the problem is this: I want to go EV with our next car via Tesla, but we can't afford an S or X. She wants a newer and slightly larger car than our ILX, with heated front seats, before the baby is born.
Both Model 3 production and delivery are currently growing exponentially. Here are the deliveries:
July = 30
August = 75
September = 117
October = 145
November = 345
December = 1060
January = 1875
An understanding of words used in posts is always appreciated
Exponential growth - Wikipedia
RT
Yeah, unfortunately the Model Y is a few years off. I always drove small cars, even when my kids were young, but I can understand wanting something larger. But the little kids would LOVE looking up at the sky in the back seat of the Model 3
sadly though, that rate of growth is about the same as the Model S and Model X ramp upBoth Model 3 production and delivery are currently growing exponentially. Here are the deliveries:
July = 30
August = 75
September = 117
October = 145
November = 345
December = 1060
January = 1875
An understanding of words used in posts is always appreciated
Exponential growth - Wikipedia
RT
As much as I would like support you getting a model 3, a mom and two young kids just need a dependable, yet boring ice suv. The last thing a mom wants to deal with is car issues. And with a model 3, you are guranteed to have them. I just dropped off my X for servicing today and saw two 3’s already in there with issues. I’ve already had my three for 2 weeks and luckily no issues, but I fully expect to have issues—just like I did with my X. I still love the cars, but I also know that I can deal with issues. If it was my wife and two young kids dealing with it, it would be a whole different matter.
I really appreciate this comment, especially coming from an existing owner.
That sucks... I know a local owner of a 2013 Model S and 2015 Model S who has not even had maintenance done. His 2013 didn't have a single issue until just after it rolled over 100k miles last fall (needed a main screen replacement). His wife's 2015 has had no issues at 70k miles.
Most of the times they are not likely to large mechanical issues (lots of little things--charge port door, bad sensors, door issues, window issues, all over this forum), but nonetheless those issues add up and wear on person (not to mention a person with two young kids). I am also not saying that the model 3 won't get over its early adopter/first generation woes, but based on the S and X, we're at least another 1-2 years for that them to get there. Having said all the above, I do love the cars and always impressed the way that Tesla takes care of its customers. And lastly, even with a long range version of the car, there is always the inevitable range anxiety/charging issues that accompany an electric car (vs a 5 min pit stop at a gas station).
So here's another take on delivery order (with a respectful amount of tongue in cheek):
S/X owners may have some sort of priority as may have CA reservationists due to loyalty and closeness to the factory. Sounds logical. The limiting factor for these groups could well be the number of cars that can be delivered in some fixed time period (let's say a week). If factory output exceeds the capacity to deliver cars in a week at CA locations, what do you do with the 'excess?' Ship some cars to non-CA owners? Sounds good; so some non-CA people could get a car before those that stood in line in CA on 3/31. Can you imagine that some some reservations on the east coast could even get cars before those closer to CA? What do you do when you've finished with those deliveries?
a) Rent more parking areas for storage so you can get all those CA S/X/line-waiter reservations fulfilled?
b) If all the S/X owners have been fulfilled and the factory is still producing more cars than CA delivery locations can process in a week for line-waiters, what do you do with the cars? Send some east? Send them where delivery centers are established/trained? Send them where freight options are favorable? Within those sub-groups, send them to/where some crazy algorithm acknowledges the Boston person in line at 7:00 am EDT gets a car ahead of the guy in line in Des Moines at 6:01 am CDT or the ubiquitous CA person who lined up at 4:02 am PDT (let alone didn't get into the store to register until 3 hours after our Boston chap reserved!)?
c) Other options are left as an exercise (in futility?) for the student...
b) If all the S/X owners have been fulfilled and the factory is still producing more cars than CA delivery locations can process in a week for line-waiters, what do you do with the cars? Send some east? Send them where delivery centers are established/trained? Send them where freight options are favorable? Within those sub-groups, send them to/where some crazy algorithm acknowledges the Boston person in line at 7:00 am EDT gets a car ahead of the guy in line in Des Moines at 6:01 am CDT or the ubiquitous CA person who lined up at 4:02 am PDT (let alone didn't get into the store to register until 3 hours after our Boston chap reserved!)?
c) Other options are left as an exercise (in futility?) for the student...
The bottom line is that I agree with Jakl1956 - too many calories on an algorithm we can't/won't know. I like the popcorn fart conclusion!!
Take care. I am waiting as anxiously as we all are - and hope your/my number comes up soon!!
insaneoctane
Well-Known Member
I can't imagine Tesla won't just keep doing what they've done. They saturate California deliveries and then the remainder of the production goes Eastward. I think the same will be true of non-owner assignments. They will saturate the CA delivery centers and spray East. It means CA will see priority and as weekly rate increases, that means more for the outside CA delivery centers. I do agree that within the DC that gets these cars, they will go to nearby owners that have earliest in-line ranking....
mwu
Member
I am also a Charlotte, NC reservation holder. Registered by around 11:30 on 3/31. My delivery estimate is Dec-Feb for first production, but I will likely be waiting for the standard battery which gives me an early 2018 estimate.
sreams
Member
Both Model 3 production and delivery are currently growing exponentially. Here are the deliveries:
July = 30
August = 75
September = 117
October = 145
November = 345
December = 1060
January = 1875
An understanding of words used in posts is always appreciated
Exponential growth - Wikipedia
RT
That January number is an estimate by a third party.
MKandyman
Member
erthquake
Active Member
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