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Speculation: configuration queue for non owner line waiters
- Thread starter McHoffa
- Start date
Garlan Garner
Banned
....and here I am, also a non-owner, 40th+/- in line at KOP, PA, a mere 100mi north of you and my window opened up as Nov-Jan but then moved to Dec-Feb at the same time everyone else experienced the shift. Not cool to have a delivery window that still shows as ending in January without any update from Tesla.
I still hold out hope that my Feb 'delivery' window is, in reality, my 'invite' window OR at the least maybe we get an update to indicate SOMETHING....ANYTHING about my chances of how quickly I can get into this car.
I reserved on east coast (Decatur, GA) around noon with 100+ people in line ahead of me, and my delivery window was originally Oct-Dec 2017, but has since said Nov-Jan 2018 after the delay bump. I believe this is because I have my account set to take delivery in Oregon where I am a resident (no sales tax). Tesla appears to prioritize delivery timelines based on delivery locations and not reservation locations. Also, 12:10pm on the east coast is 9:10am on the west coast (before most of the stores opened), which I think is why I am ahead of many CA reservation holders and the reason for the Nov-Jan timeline. All speculation of course from my end so take it as you will, but it doesn't matter much anyways as I will be deferring for Performance.
That is a seriously pathetic ramp. And yes, I am taking into account the jump from July to August MORE THAN DOUBLED. The ramp is exponential, but that doesn't mean the results after 7 months haven't been horrible.Both Model 3 production and delivery are currently growing exponentially. Here are the deliveries:
July = 30
August = 75
September = 117
October = 145
November = 345
December = 1060
January = 1875
An understanding of words used in posts is always appreciated
Exponential growth - Wikipedia
RT
Horribleness, like beauty, is in the eye of the beholder...
The Model 3 is the best selling EV in the country this month, and likely for the foreseeable future. Is your glass half full yet?
RT
Dugknight
Member
Same here, no -owner around 8. Original timeframe was Jan-Mar, but it changed a couple months ago to Feb-Apr.
That’s really not saying much since all sales were much lower than they had previously beenHorribleness, like beauty, is in the eye of the beholder...
The Model 3 is the best selling EV in the country this month, and likely for the foreseeable future. Is your glass half full yet?
RT
They’ve ramped up no faster than the S or X, which is sad. I was positive they’d have it figured out this time.
erthquake
Active Member
As stated above the credit will be full through September 30. There is zero chance of them hitting 200k in Q1. The credit will not get cut in half July 1.
On the flip side, there’s also almost zero chance they WON’T hit 200k in Q2. The only way is if they delivered less than 750 Model 3s per week all the way through June 30 AND they only sold 10k S+X each quarter which would be lower than previous quarters.
Garlan Garner
Banned
omgwtfbyobbq
Active Member
Based on what? Insideev's estimates puts Tesla at 3647 Model 3s delivered over 7 months of production, which is more than the combined production (3404) for the S and X during their initial 7 month runs (14 months total).
Monthly Plug-In Sales Scorecard
Garlan Garner
Banned
I'm not sure I care how the model 3 production numbers compare to Teslas other cars. There are over 400K model 3 reservations still outstanding. Comparing model 3 to model s and x does nothing for the 400K+ remaining.
I want to compare model 3's production numbers to what Tesla said would happen. 1K per week? 5K per week? 10K per week?
First 7 months
Model S - 2650
Model X - 2614
Model 3 - 3647
Yeah, it’s slightly higher, but considering their goal was to have 1500 per WEEK in September and 5000 per week in December they’re not doing very well at all. We’re in February now and they’re still delivering VINs in the 1000s, 2000s, 3000s, etc.
All evidence points to them not even producing 1000 per week still. I’m not convinced they’ll even meet their delayed on top of delayed goal of 2500 per week at the end of next month.
I think VIN's in the 1000's to 3000's are clearly months old, and were held back for whatever reason.
So the fact that somebody might have just gotten one is pretty irrelevant.
So the fact that somebody might have just gotten one is pretty irrelevant.
omgwtfbyobbq
Active Member
My mistake, I used 6 months of X production. Still, the 3 is ahead of the S/X at this point, not behind. The progression of VIN registrations suggests that production will continue to increase, barring any other holdups.
Model 3 VINs (@Model3VINs) | Twitter
And sure, we're in February, and seeing delivered VINs in the 1000s, 2000s, 3000s, 4000s, 5000s, and 6000s. The distribution seems to be north of 4000 recently, but I imagine some lower VINs will pop up from time to time as cars from earlier production are fixed/delivered.
Tesla Model 3 VINs
Highest production VIN in the wild
Don't get me wrong, even if production continues to increase, Tesla still may not hit 2500 cars by the end of the quarter. I honestly can't see that as being a big issue for them given the lack of competition. I think it's far more important for them to ramp production in a way that allows them to maximize the number of tax credits their customers get as opposed to ramping 3 production as quickly as possible.
omgwtfbyobbq
Active Member
For someone who doesn't care much, you're posting an awful lot about Model 3 production.
In terms of production, I'd let things settle before you start to worry. Like I said in my last post, I think maximizing the tax credit is more important for them than ramping up production as fast as possible.
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