Speculation: configuration queue for non owner line waiters

[McHoffa]

For someone who doesn't care much, you're posting an awful lot about Model 3 production.

In terms of production, I'd let things settle before you start to worry. Like I said in my last post, I think maximizing the tax credit is more important for them than ramping up production as fast as possible.

They’re pretty much guaranteed to hit 200k in Q2 at this point, unless they average less than 615-770 Model 3s per week all the way through June 30. They’re not holding off delivery for any reason other than production not ramping up.

They’re basically on par with the Model S and Model X ramp up so far. Slightly better, but not very much.

I was POSITIVE I’d have my car before Christmas. Now I’m not counting on having it before May or June. I’d like to be proven wrong though.

 

[omgwtfbyobbq]

They’re pretty much guaranteed to hit 200k in Q2 at this point, unless they average less than 615-770 Model 3s per week all the way through June 30. They’re not holding off delivery for any reason other than production not ramping up.

They’re basically on par with the Model S and Model X ramp up so far. Slightly better, but not very much.

I was POSITIVE I’d have my car before Christmas. Now I’m not counting on having it before May or June. I’d like to be proven wrong though.

You could be right about not getting your car until May/June, but I'm pretty sure you're wrong about that Model 3 production estimate to hit 200k in Q3.

Insideevs put all Tesla production at 161571 through 2017, which gives them 38429 cars before they hit 200k. Last year, Model S/X production was 14040 through the first two quarters of the year, which means Tesla can build 24389 Model 3s, or about 950 cars/week, before they hit the phase out limit.

Insideevs estimate has them lower than that average at 1875 cars in January, which means they would now need to average about 4500 cars/month. The more Model 3 production lags the ~950/week average, the bigger Tesla's buffer for hitting 200k US sales in Q2 is.

 

[McHoffa]

You could be right about not getting your car until May/June, but I'm pretty sure you're wrong about that Model 3 production estimate to hit 200k in Q3.

Insideevs put all Tesla production at 161571 through 2017, which gives them 38429 cars before they hit 200k. Last year, Model S/X production was 14040 through the first two quarters of the year, which means Tesla can build 24389 Model 3s, or about 950 cars/week, before they hit the phase out limit.

Insideevs estimate has them lower than that average at 1875 cars in January, which means they would now need to average about 4500 cars/month. The more Model 3 production lags the ~950/week average, the bigger Tesla's buffer for hitting 200k US sales in Q2 is.

I said they're pretty much guaranteed to hit 200k in Q2.

Also, not sure how you got 14,040 for S+X in Q1+Q2 last year. S+X deliveries for Q1+Q2 last year totaled 20,140 and 19,030 in 2016. That number keeps going up year after year, but let's just assume it just matches last year's numbers. That would put them at about 182k at the end of Q2 not counting any 3 sales. Add in 1875 3s delivered in January. That's 184k, leaving 16k Model 3 sales to hit 200k within Q2.

16k/21.5 weeks left comes to 744 per week. If they stay at 744 per week all the way through June, they're doing EXTREMELY bad. Not saying it's impossible but very unlikely. That's a long time to not get on track.

If their goal is 2500/week by end of March, let's assume they are much slower and don't hit it until end of June and assume InsideEVs is correct with their 1875 number for January, which comes to 416/week. Here's a sample ramp up then:

~416/week for 4.5 weeks - 1875

600/week for 4 weeks - 2400
1000/week for 4 weeks - 4000
1500/week for 4 weeks - 6000
1800/week for 4 weeks - 7200
2200/week for 4 weeks - 8800
2500/week for the last week and a half remaining - 3750

Even those low numbers would come to 32,150, which would push them to 216k in Q2.

 

[Joe6pack]

I think he is referring to US deliveries. Remember, only US deliveries count towards the 200k.

 

[McHoffa]

I think he is referring to US deliveries. Remember, only US deliveries count towards the 200k.

Me? Yes, I'm referring to US deliveries.

 

[omgwtfbyobbq]

I said they're pretty much guaranteed to hit 200k in Q2.

Also, not sure how you got 14,040 for S+X in Q1+Q2 last year. S+X deliveries for Q1+Q2 last year totaled 20,140 and 19,030 in 2016. That number keeps going up year after year, but let's just assume it just matches last year's numbers. That would put them at about 182k at the end of Q2 not counting any 3 sales. Add in 1875 3s delivered in January. That's 184k, leaving 16k Model 3 sales to hit 200k within Q2.

16k/21.5 weeks left comes to 744 per week. If they stay at 744 per week all the way through June, they're doing EXTREMELY bad. Not saying it's impossible but very unlikely. That's a long time to not get on track.

If their goal is 2500/week by end of March, let's assume they are much slower and don't hit it until end of June and assume InsideEVs is correct with their 1875 number for January, which comes to 416/week. Here's a sample ramp up then:

~416/week for 4.5 weeks - 1875

600/week for 4 weeks - 2400
1000/week for 4 weeks - 4000
1500/week for 4 weeks - 6000
1800/week for 4 weeks - 7200
2200/week for 4 weeks - 8800
2500/week for the last week and a half remaining - 3750

Even those low numbers would come to 32,150, which would push them to 216k in Q2.

You're right, that's my mistake.

I agree that those production numbers would be bad if they hit 200k cars sold in the US in Q2. If they don't, those production numbers might be OK if they're throttling production to hit 200k sales in early Q3.

I disagree about your interpretation of their 2500/week statement. Based on their Q4 release, they're referring to their full production capacity over days to maybe a week, not their average production over however many weeks/months. They've already hit 1000/week, per their press release, but they're clearly not at an average of 1000/week. My guess is the same applies to hitting 2500k/week.

During Q4, we made major progress addressing Model 3 production bottlenecks, with our production rate increasing significantly towards the end of the quarter. In the last seven working days of the quarter, we made 793 Model 3's, and in the last few days, we hit a production rate on each of our manufacturing lines that extrapolates to over 1,000 Model 3's per week.

Tesla Q4 2017 Vehicle Production and Deliveries (NASDAQ:TSLA)

Like I said before, I think it's more important that they maximize the number of people who get the tax credit rather than ramping as quickly as they can. They might chose to ramp as quickly as possible, but that could cost them in terms of customer satisfaction (fewer people getting the tax credit, maybe more defects per car they deliver, less time to sort out the production line prior to increasing volume).

 

[Garlan Garner]

For someone who doesn't care much, you're posting an awful lot about Model 3 production.

In terms of production, I'd let things settle before you start to worry. Like I said in my last post, I think maximizing the tax credit is more important for them than ramping up production as fast as possible.

Please stop and read my posts as I wrote them.

I'll say it again just for you. I don't care much ABOUT COMPARING THE TESLA MODEL S/X/3 PRODUCTION TO ONE ANOTHER. period.

If you were trying to draw a laugh....then ok.

Lets just start with that fact. Then we can move on if necessary.

 

[omgwtfbyobbq]

Please stop and read my posts as I wrote them.

I'll say it again just for you. I don't care much ABOUT COMPARING THE TESLA MODEL S/X/3 PRODUCTION TO ONE ANOTHER. period.

If you were trying to draw a laugh....then ok.

Lets just start with that fact. Then we can move on if necessary.

Lets start with the fact that I was talking about comparing S/X/3 production, and you quoted my post.

If you don't want to talk about comparing S/X/3 production, then don't quote/respond to a post where I am talking about that.

Or continue to, and then complain when someone else pokes fun at you about it. Either way is fine.

 

[Garlan Garner]

Lets start with the fact that I was talking about comparing S/X/3 production, and you quoted my post.

If you don't want to talk about comparing S/X/3 production, then don't quote/respond to a post where I am talking about that.

Or continue to, and then complain when someone else pokes fun at you about it. Either way is fine.

Oh wait.....

I didn't know you created this thread titled Speculation: configuration queue for non owner line waiters. Oh wait.... that has nothing to do with comparing the models...or does it? Maybe the thread topic changed as you quoted. My apologies.

I disagreed with you comparing the models together.....unless that's forbidden.

Indeed ...everything is fine.

 

[dhanson865]

I'm a non-owner, waited in line early morning in Burbank, CA. I'm trying to decide between the First Production/LR (to ensure the full tax credit) and the base model (I would prefer this). I think there's a real possibility that even if I order the base model when my configuration first opens, I won't take delivery until October and will lose $3750 off the tax credit.

**
I'm worried that I will be in Group #15 after tens of thousands of people have already ordered 1 or 2 Model 3 cars and I won't be able to take delivery before October 1st and will lose $3750 of the tax credit. DISCLAIMER : I'm not an expert on any of this and I'm totally guessing.

LR first build $49,000
SR base $35,000

Difference in cost $14,000 (LR battery $9,000, Premium Upgrades $5,000)

So you are worried about $3,750 off and are considering paying $14,000 more to avoid "losing" $3,750. It's still $10,250 more than you want to pay even if that were the two choices.

That's like someone saying they saved thousands of dollars by buying thousands of dollars of shoes at a half off sale. You still spent money you didn't have to.

And that $3,750 isn't guaranteed to go away. Even if it gets close if you keep your reservation you could pull the trigger on the more expensive build 2 months before the credit drops by half and still get it. You don't need to make a decision now.

 

[dhanson865]

I really appreciate this comment, especially coming from an existing owner.

I'd counter that a Model 3 or S or X will all be safer in a crash than any ICE SUV she wants. Especially any SUV in the sub $40,000 price range we are talking about

 

[dhanson865]

You could be right about not getting your car until May/June, but I'm pretty sure you're wrong about that Model 3 production estimate to hit 200k in Q3.

Insideevs put all Tesla production at 161571 through 2017, which gives them 38429 cars before they hit 200k.

two notes

* It's not "all Tesla production" it is "all Tesla US deliveries" because:

A. It's not global, it's just US. (both for the insideevs numbers you are quoting and for the tax issue you are referencing
B. it's delivered cars not produced.

InsideEVs labels it as "Estimated Tesla Sales Numbers" but Tesla doesn't count a car as sold until it is delivered. See Tesla Q4 2017 Vehicle Production and Deliveries (NASDAQ:TSLA) as an example of this with separate statements about Delivered cars, in transit cars, and produced cars (which actually uses the word "production" in a different sentence structure to avoid confusion between the types of numbers).

* When I did the math on Jan 6th InsideEVs had that number at 161,357. Somehow you are 214 higher. Double check your math vs mine and tell me if I'm off.

US running total Tesla Sales vs 200,000 for federal credit phase out trigger
2011 end 1,900
2012 end 4,550 (2,650 for 2012 + prior year)
2013 end 22,200 (17,650 for 2013 + prior years)
2014 end 38,889 (16,689 for 2014 + prior years)
2015 end 64,091 (25,202 for 2015 + prior years, Model S and Model X)
2016 end 111,210 (47,119 for 2016 + prior years, Model S and Model X)
2017 end 161,357 (50,147 for 2017 + prior years, Model S, Model 3, and Model X)

 

[omgwtfbyobbq]

two notes

* It's not "all Tesla production" it is "all Tesla US deliveries" because:

A. It's not global, it's just US. (both for the insideevs numbers you are quoting and for the tax issue you are referencing
B. it's delivered cars not produced.

InsideEVs labels it as "Estimated Tesla Sales Numbers" but Tesla doesn't count a car as sold until it is delivered. See Tesla Q4 2017 Vehicle Production and Deliveries (NASDAQ:TSLA) as an example of this with separate statements about Delivered cars, in transit cars, and produced cars (which actually uses the word "production" in a different sentence structure to avoid confusion between the types of numbers).

* When I did the math on Jan 6th InsideEVs had that number at 161,357. Somehow you are 214 higher. Double check your math vs mine and tell me if I'm off.

Oh yeah, I'm just referring to US production/the federal tax credit.

For the total count, did you include the 214 Model Xs from 2015?

 

[dhanson865]

Oh yeah, I'm just referring to US production/the federal tax credit.

For the total count, did you include the 214 Model Xs from 2015?

good catch, I was off on the 2015 numbers.

US running total Tesla Sales vs 200,000 for federal credit phase out trigger
2011 end 1,900
2012 end 4,550 (2,650 for 2012 + prior year)
2013 end 22,200 (17,650 for 2013 + prior years)
2014 end 38,889 (16,689 for 2014 + prior years)
2015 end 64,305 (25,416 for 2015 + prior years, Model S and Model X)
2016 end 111,424 (47,119 for 2016 + prior years, Model S and Model X)
2017 end 161,571 (50,147 for 2017 + prior years, Model S, Model 3, and Model X)
2018 Jan 164,946 (3,375 for Jan2018 + prior years, Model S, Model 3, and Model X)

 

[NRG4All]

My wife wants a new car before our next kid arrives (due in late spring). When I made the reservation almost 2 years ago, the second kid wasn't on our radar, and at the time I naively thought we'd probably have the car by now. Since then, she, with the help of her mom's group, decided that an ICE SUV would be a better option for us than a Model 3 she's never seen in person.

So the problem is this: I want to go EV with our next car via Tesla, but we can't afford an S or X. She wants a newer and slightly larger car than our ILX, with heated front seats, before the baby is born.

You might mention for the health of your children and children everywhere, the M3 does not poison the atmosphere like the ICE SUV. If we don't take action individually, then progress against global warming and climate change will not be made (at least in the U.S. with the current administration).

 

[Garlan Garner]

I just posted in another thread that I think:

SpaceX is about to send Elons roadster into space.

Maybe the next rocket launch should send all of our line waiter ICE beaters into space and blow them up in orbit.

 

[206er]

You might mention for the health of your children and children everywhere, the M3 does not poison the atmosphere like the ICE SUV. If we don't take action individually, then progress against global warming and climate change will not be made (at least in the U.S. with the current administration).

She wants a safe, reliable, and slightly larger car than our ILX, with heated front seats, that will accommodate our toddler and new baby, and that's it. She's not as concerned with the environment or future of the planet as some of us. Also, doesn't help when her mom friends all have SUVs or minivans (any of which we could buy today) and Elon still hasn't opened up ordering to early morning non-owner West Coast line-waiters, either.

I'm viewed as the weirdo Musketeer who refuses to give into the "children require an SUV or minivan" ethos.

 

[McHoffa]

She wants a safe, reliable, and slightly larger car than our ILX, with heated front seats, that will accommodate our toddler and new baby, and that's it. She's not as concerned with the environment or future of the planet as some of us. Also, doesn't help when her mom friends all have SUVs or minivans (any of which we could buy today) and Elon still hasn't opened up ordering to early morning non-owner West Coast line-waiters, either.

I'm viewed as the weirdo Musketeer who refuses to give into the "children require an SUV or minivan" ethos.

My kids are older now but when my daughter was a toddler all I had was a Pontiac Fiero, just about the smallest car you can drive with the smallest trunk. When my son was a baby I drove a Dodge Shadow (definitely not a big car). I moved up to a Honda Civic eventually, then a Honda Fit and now a Leaf. My wife used to drive a small Saturn for about ten years and moved into a Kia Optima in 2011, the largest car we’ve had. I can’t even imagine driving a van or SUV.

 

[206er]

My kids are older now but when my daughter was a toddler all I had was a Pontiac Fiero, just about the smallest car you can drive with the smallest trunk. When my son was a baby I drove a Dodge Shadow (definitely not a big car). I moved up to a Honda Civic eventually, then a Honda Fit and now a Leaf. My wife used to drive a small Saturn for about ten years and moved into a Kia Optima in 2011, the largest car we’ve had. I can’t even imagine driving a van or SUV.

Me either! I bike to work every day in any Seattle weather that isn't accumulating snow, but haven't been successful at getting my wife to allow me to strap a child seat or cart onto the back of my bike to take my toddler around town. She's a tough sway, lol.

 

[ReddyLeaf]

I was POSITIVE I’d have my car before Christmas. Now I’m not counting on having it before May or June. I’d like to be proven wrong though.

Right on time, but this is yesterday's train.