Speculation: configuration queue for non owner line waiters

[Cheburashka]

It is apparently easier to launch pointy things into the sky than to launch scaled-up production of the Model 3.

Hopefully we'll get more details tomorrow on the earnings call.

 

[Dan Detweiler]

It is apparently easier to launch pointy things into the sky than to launch scaled-up production of the Model 3.

Hopefully we'll get more details tomorrow on the earnings call.

Well...after all, it IS rocket science. LOL!

Dan

 

[Lbkmxp100d]

I’m an owner of 2 Tesla’s and I truly would not be upset if non-owners were able to configure before me if I had waited and reserved now. I think the owner priority should have stopped the day production of M3 began for non-employees.

I do think owners who do reserve now should have some type of priority but feel that the non-owner line waiters should not have to wait for new reservations moving forward by owners. I reserved my M3 during the semi/roadster reveal and I’m happy to wait. I’m also very excited to get non-owners reviews of Tesla ownership after taking possession of their M3’s.

 

[Lbkmxp100d]

You're right, that's my mistake.

I agree that those production numbers would be bad if they hit 200k cars sold in the US in Q2. If they don't, those production numbers might be OK if they're throttling production to hit 200k sales in early Q3.

I disagree about your interpretation of their 2500/week statement. Based on their Q4 release, they're referring to their full production capacity over days to maybe a week, not their average production over however many weeks/months. They've already hit 1000/week, per their press release, but they're clearly not at an average of 1000/week. My guess is the same applies to hitting 2500k/week.



Tesla Q4 2017 Vehicle Production and Deliveries (NASDAQ:TSLA)

Like I said before, I think it's more important that they maximize the number of people who get the tax credit rather than ramping as quickly as they can. They might chose to ramp as quickly as possible, but that could cost them in terms of customer satisfaction (fewer people getting the tax credit, maybe more defects per car they deliver, less time to sort out the production line prior to increasing volume).

I totally agree w the importance of the tax credit being available to as many as possible. It would be awesome if Tesla could as close as they could to 199,999 at end of quarter and have the ability to produce the M3 like crazy for the following quarter to allow for lots of tax credits. I assume that’s been discussed a time or two by Tesla

 

[EinSV]

My WAG is that Tesla will invite non-owners within the next couple weeks focusing initially on early Day 1 reservations on the East Coast/Midwest (or a mix of geographies) and then moving west so they can have the best chance of getting the maximum number of Model 3s in customers' hands before the end of the quarter.

 

[206er]

My WAG is that Tesla will invite non-owners within the next couple weeks focusing initially on early Day 1 reservations on the East Coast/Midwest (or a mix of geographies) and then moving west so they can have the best chance of getting the maximum number of Model 3s in customers' hands before the end of the quarter.

As an early morning day 1 non-owner reservation holder from Seattle, this would tick me off to no end. East coast better not leap frog me.

 

[McHoffa]

As an early morning day 1 non-owner reservation holder from Seattle, this would tick me off to no end. East coast better not leap frog me.

I THINK what they mean is that an east coaster will order first, but since it's east coast, it takes longer to get there. If I ordered next week in NC and you ordered a week later, we'd probably get our cars at about the same time. If they opened yours first, and mine a week later, then you'd get yours two weeks before me. They can only deliver so many per store per day, so if they wanted to maximize deliveries for the quarter, they'd have to do as many per store as they can.

That said, I doubt they'll do that, and west coast will go first

 

[fazluke]

Bad news...
Non-owner, waited in line on 3/31 in CA . Just now got what we were speculating after the Tesla business update.

First production moved from Dec-Feb to Mar-May and Standard battery from Early 2018 to Late 2018 and all wheel drive to Late 2018.

I am disappointed even knowing after reading these posts that my turn will come and I'll be pushed to the right.

 

[djplong]

When I got the email, I expected that... I was just REALLY disappointed that it was a THREE MONTH window-slip.

I mean, hey, I might get surprised and get the March delivery that I was already expecting -but not I'm not expecting that.

 

[Beagle]

As an early morning day 1 non-owner reservation holder from Seattle, this would tick me off to no end. East coast better not leap frog me.

Maybe this is why Tesla won't tell us where we stand in line.

 

[206er]

Maybe this is why Tesla won't tell us where we stand in line.

I just cancelled my reservation. It feels kind of liberating.

 

[kelly]

I just cancelled my reservation. It feels kind of liberating.

Be sure to let us all know this in as many different threads as possible. Saying it two or three times is not enough.

 

[smak]

It is apparently easier to launch pointy things into the sky than to launch scaled-up production of the Model 3.

Hopefully we'll get more details tomorrow on the earnings call.

I think SpaceX announced Falcon Heavy in 2011

 

[oldtrip]

I just cancelled my reservation. It feels kind of liberating.

I just cancelled my reservation. It feels kind of liberating.

Thank you.
Hope you have no regrets in a few months. Speaking as a grandparent, I'm very aware how fast the time can pass.

 

[206er]

Thank you.
Hope you have no regrets in a few months. Speaking as a grandparent, I'm very aware how fast the time can pass.

I feel better about it today than I did yesterday.

I also had the benefit of experiencing a 3 in person a few weeks ago for almost 2 hours. I am content with my choice.

 

[WileyTheMan]

My WAG is that Tesla will invite non-owners within the next couple weeks focusing initially on early Day 1 reservations on the East Coast/Midwest (or a mix of geographies) and then moving west so they can have the best chance of getting the maximum number of Model 3s in customers' hands before the end of the quarter.

The fastest way to get delivery numbers up is to start deliveries near the factory. This (among other reasons) is why they did this with employee and current owners.

 

[Seven7]

I remember getting my first Tesla back in 2013. Waited until they were in production and then ordered my first model s, it seemed like it took forever for them to get where I wanted them to before ordering.

 

[McHoffa]

So now that invitations have gone out, it looks like my theory about a certain amount per store is right. People in every area are able to configure all at once, but not sure how many. One person in California who was about #100 in line said he can't configure yet. I was 20 in line in North Carolina and I just placed my order a couple hours ago!

 

[mwu]

I was 20 in line in North Carolina and I just placed my order a couple hours ago!

I am not sure what number I was, but I walked out of the Charlotte, NC store before noon if I remember correctly. I haven't received my invite yet, so I guess I missed the cut-off for today's invites.

Edit: I didn't remember correctly. Found a text message I sent to my wife just after I made the reservation. It was at 12:30pm

 

[RubberToe]

So now that invitations have gone out, it looks like my theory about a certain amount per store is right. People in every area are able to configure all at once, but not sure how many. One person in California who was about #100 in line said he can't configure yet. I was 20 in line in North Carolina and I just placed my order a couple hours ago!

#80 in Pasadena, Ca and configured.