[Spoiler Alert + Mild Speculation] Tesla has created a monster!

[omgwtfbyobbq]

Exactly.

It is also possible (though I think unlikely) that the 18" wheels were tested without the Aero hubcaps.

In any case, it keeps bugging me that I have yet to see a delivered car with 18" wheels. Could Tesla have used a sticker based on those wheels without *any* deliveries ? I know that an option that is on less than 33% of the total cars do not have to be tested but when does the 33% counting begin ?

I think it's any sales for the vehicle line in the year. Once the vehicle line gets large enough and the take rate for large wheels drops below 33%, they can use the rating with the smaller wheels for all their cars, even if a particular configuration is sold with the larger wheels more than 33% of the time.

Since Tesla is only (mostly?) delivering the 3 LR this year, as long as more than 33% of those cars are delivered with Sport wheels, my understanding is Tesla has to use the Sport wheels on the CSI report, just like they used the 21" wheels on the P85D when it came out. Once they start selling fewer than 33% of the SR/LR 3s with Sport wheels, they can use the Aero wheels for the entire vehicle line, even if > 33% of LR sales still come with Sport wheels.

We'll see how it works out. The same page says the non-premium interior will be available in "Fall" and a production/customer unit has already been spotted. My delivery estimator seems to be two months behind employees and says February-April if I wanted the gimpy battery, so it stands to reason some of them are showing December-Feb.

I can see them making some $35k deliveries in 2017 if production ramps smoothly, but I don't think those will be enough to drop the take rate of the Sport wheels below 33%. At the same time, I could be wrong about that, and the take rate for the Sport wheels on the $49k 3 LRs could be less than 33%, but that doesn't seem likely because most cars sold so far have had Sport wheels, and people seem to like the Sport wheels more.

Also, I'm not sure why everyone's so invested in assuming the 3 LR in the CSI Report has Aero wheels. If it has Sport wheels, that means the UDDS/HWFET ratings could be 5%-10% better than the current rating, which could make it the across-the-board numero uno car Tesla sells in terms of range instead of just being close to the MS 100D.

 

[Troy]

The Model 3 LR will be the only highest volume version of the 3 offered in 2017 according to Tesla, just like the P85D was the only AWD Model S offered in 2014. If the take rate for the Sport wheels is > 33%, then Tesla will have to use those in the CSI report, just like they had to use the 21" wheels in the initial CSI report for the P85D. Once Tesla starts building the Model 3 SR, and fewer than 33% of all 3 LR/SR vehicles are sold with Sport wheels, then Tesla can use the Aero wheels for the 3's CSI report, just like they did for the P85D once enough P85D/85D/70D cars were being sold with 19" wheels. They can also use the Aero wheel if they can somehow limit Sport wheel sales to < 33% of all 3 LR sales in 2017.

Thanks for finally writing your argument in longer sentences. Now I understand what you were trying to say in the last X messages. Previously, when you said "just like the P85D" or "if it's the only model" it didn't make any sense because I couldn't see any similarity between the P85D and Model 3 80 considering that the P85D is a performance car sold mostly with larger wheels and it does not represent more than one model. It is already as specific as it gets.

Now, I understand the argument but I disagree with it. I don't think Tesla would expect the larger wheels to be more than 33% of Model S 80 sales. It is more likely to be around 10-15%. Below is a screenshot from the model3tracker survey here (it requires membership). 7606 people have voted. Therefore it looks like a credible survey. Of course, Tesla couldn't have known the take rate of larger wheels when they did the EPA tests. They have to use estimates for future sales to decide the EPA configuration.

However, they did know the take rate of large wheels for the Model S and X cars. Those must be less than 20% as well, considering that Performance sales are estimated to be about 12% of Model S/X sales. Especially for the non-performance Model S, the larger wheel selection must be less than 10%.

On the other hand, Tesla did have an incentive to over estimate the large wheel take rate. This is something that reduces the range and Tesla wanted to reduce Model 3 80's range score. But it looks like they used the voluntary reduction method and the 0.7 multiplier method. These two don't affect the dyno scores. They affect the range calculated after the dyno score. Of course just because we know about the double sandbagging doesn't mean they didn't triple sandbag it. It is an interesting theory.

 

[insaneoctane]

The way I see it, we don't know which wheels were used to conduct the M3 CSI test. We want to know, but we don't. We can extrapolate what they have done in the past, but it is still unconfirmed. If for any number of reasons Tesla used the 19" wheels, then the range could be even better.

As far as sandbagging the numbers, we don't know why. @Troy has some reasonable possibilities. I wonder, do we have any model S CSI data from before the MX came to the scene? If so it would be interesting to see what they did then.

Short of asking Elon (anyone want to tweet him?) we may never understand why Tesla has chosen the EPA multipliers that they have.... It seems fairly obvious to me that the LR is underrated because it looks too good compared to the more expensive stable.

 

[SageBrush]

Also, I'm not sure why everyone's so invested in assuming the 3 LR in the CSI Report has Aero wheels. If it has Sport wheels, that means the UDDS/HWFET ratings could be 5%-10% better than the current rating, which could make it the across-the-board numero uno car Tesla sells in terms of range instead of just being close to the MS 100D.

That, and it would mean that the LR with Sport wheels is not less than sticker.

 

[R.S]

The way I see it, we don't know which wheels were used to conduct the M3 CSI test. We want to know, but we don't. We can extrapolate what they have done in the past, but it is still unconfirmed. If for any number of reasons Tesla used the 19" wheels, then the range could be even better.

As far as sandbagging the numbers, we don't know why. @Troy has some reasonable possibilities. I wonder, do we have any model S CSI data from before the MX came to the scene? If so it would be interesting to see what they did then.

Short of asking Elon (anyone want to tweet him?) we may never understand why Tesla has chosen the EPA multipliers that they have.... It seems fairly obvious to me that the LR is underrated because it looks too good compared to the more expensive stable.

AFAIK Tesla was allowed to use higher multipliers for some reason. As did the Volt. But I'm not sure why they were allowed to do that. But I think they aren't allowed anymore, so that's one reason why it is lower.

I also think they didn't want the LR to be the highest range model, or at least not have a lot more range than the S70. We've seen some rumors that the 70 will become an 85 and that might push it above the 300 mile mark. But advertising the LR 3 with about 100 miles more, than the S70 just sounds too bad.

 

[SageBrush]

So what is the practical implication of the "actual range" being grated than the "EPA range"? The screen will show 0mi remaining, but you should actually have +24 (=334 - 310) miles remaining?

A better way to think about this would be that the car EPA miles estimate is actually 334/310 = 7.7% higher than displayed

So 10 miles estimated remaining is actually 10.77 miles ;-)

 

[omgwtfbyobbq]

Thanks for finally writing your argument in longer sentences. Now I understand what you were trying to say in the last X messages. Previously, when you said "just like the P85D" or "if it's the only model" it didn't make any sense because I couldn't see any similarity between the P85D and Model 3 80 considering that the P85D is a performance car sold mostly with larger wheels and it does not represent more than one model. It is already as specific as it gets.

Now, I understand the argument but I disagree with it. I don't think Tesla would expect the larger wheels to be more than 33% of Model S 80 sales. It is more likely to be around 10-15%. Below is a screenshot from the model3tracker survey here (it requires membership). 7606 people have voted. Therefore it looks like a credible survey. Of course, Tesla couldn't have known the take rate of larger wheels when they did the EPA tests. They have to use estimates for future sales to decide the EPA configuration.

However, they did know the take rate of large wheels for the Model S and X cars. Those must be less than 20% as well, considering that Performance sales are estimated to be about 12% of Model S/X sales. Especially for the non-performance Model S, the larger wheel selection must be less than 10%.

On the other hand, Tesla did have an incentive to over estimate the large wheel take rate. This is something that reduces the range and Tesla wanted to reduce Model 3 80's range score. But it looks like they used the voluntary reduction method and the 0.7 multiplier method. These two don't affect the dyno scores. They affect the range calculated after the dyno score. Of course just because we know about the double sandbagging doesn't mean they didn't triple sandbag it. It is an interesting theory.

I agree that it's likely for the take rate of Sport wheels to be ~15% for all 3 sales, including non-PUP/SR cars. Having said that, I'm not as certain the take rate for Sport wheels will be < 33% for 3s with the PUP and larger pack, which look to be the majority of 3s sold this year by most accounts.

One other thing that may come into play is public perception. If Tesla used the Aero wheels because they think the take on the Sport would be 28% in 2017, and it actually turns out to be 34%, they'll need to revise their CSI Report. Doing that might give their critics some ammo for a click-bait story or two, even if it's total BS.

They may end up using the Sport wheel, or they may end up using the Aero wheel. What that really depends on is the specifics of their application. At this point, I don't think we have enough info to go one way or another. My guess is they used the Sport wheel, because they did the same when the P85D came out, but we'll only know once their application is available.

 

[internalaudit]

Can't believe wheel covers can add 10% more range to an EV but hey, we're all for it, especially those going for the 18 inchers.

 

[Zaphod]

Can't believe wheel covers can add 10% more range to an EV but hey, we're all for it, especially those going for the 18 inchers.

I think the 10% is highly overestimated and even if achievable, would be only under ideal conditions. Steady state highway speeds with no wind, etc.

 

[MP3Mike]

Can't believe wheel covers can add 10% more range to an EV

It isn't just the wheel covers, the 10% was quoted from someone that said they didn't upgrade to the Sport Wheels/tires because they would have 10% more range on the stock 18" setup. So the 10% is the total increase from a combination of smaller/lighter wheels, less rolling resistance in the tires, and the areo wheel cover.

 

[JRP3]

I'd expect closer to 5% from the wheel covers alone.

 

[insaneoctane]

I'd expect closer to 5% from the wheel covers alone.

Agreed for 5% max, but that's ALL benefits. Even less below highway speeds. The gains are not JUST because of the aero covers... so does the increased sidewall (18" vs 19") and possibly reduced rolling resistance compound. In order to approach anything over 5% you'd have to start to get above normal highway speeds, IMO.

 

[omgwtfbyobbq]

Chgd Up's pizza pie pan wheels apparently provide an extra 10+% range at highway speeds.

Aero wheels

And KmanAuto's Tesla Aero wheels improved energy consumption by ~30Wh at highway speeds.

I could see the Tesla equivalent of pie pan wheels plus lower rolling resistance tires improving efficiency by an average of 10% compared to the Sport wheels.

 

[SageBrush]

It isn't just the wheel covers, the 10% was quoted from someone that said they didn't upgrade to the Sport Wheels/tires because they would have 10% more range on the stock 18" setup. So the 10% is the total increase from a combination of smaller/lighter wheels, less rolling resistance in the tires, and the areo wheel cover.

My recollection of that quote was that the 18" wheels with Aero covers reduced Aero losses by 10%.

The range difference will vary by speed, but somewhere in the 3-5% range for most highway driving. Those driving 85 mpg and more will benefit from the covers even more ;-)
Unless of course the guy was talking about the difference at 85 mph rather than EPA, in which case I'm throwing the cover things away.

 

[Dynastar]

My recollection of that quote was that the 18" wheels with Aero covers reduced Aero losses by 10%.

The range difference will vary by speed, but somewhere in the 3-5% range for most highway driving. Those driving 85 mpg and more will benefit from the covers even more ;-)
Unless of course the guy was talking about the difference at 85 mph rather than EPA, in which case I'm throwing the cover things away.

Frankly the only time I'm worried about range is when I'm going 85 (Montana speed limit is 80).

 

[azred]

TEG's post on the Monroney stickers for the 3 prompted me to dig around for them. Unfortunately, I came up short in that search, but I found something just as good, maybe even better.
...

Last but not least, if you can stand setting the cruise control at what I'm guessing is a smidge under 50mph on an open highway, the 3 can probably go well over 400 miles for you. ...

Ridiculous. If you own a Tesla you know it is impossible to drive a Tesla at slow speeds unless you are limping a few miles on a low charge. But 400 miles of slow driving a Tesla. Never. So for nonowners who think the 220 mile Model 3 will be fine for your needs, your needs had better be a lot less than 220 because you will definitely drive faster than the speeds the 220 is based on.

 

[ryanjm]

I confess I haven't read the last 10 or so pages of this thread, but since it's about EPA range/Aero wheels/etc., I thought this might be relevant:

Tesla investor Jason Calacanis posted a few more pics of his Model 3, and it seems that, fully charged, it's a tad higher (1%, but still!) than the 310-mile range Tesla quoted for the LR battery. Here's Jason's pic, via his Twitter page:

 

[gregincal]

I confess I haven't read the last 10 or so pages of this thread, but since it's about EPA range/Aero wheels/etc., I thought this might be relevant:

Tesla investor Jason Calacanis posted a few more pics of his Model 3, and it seems that, fully charged, it's a tad higher (1%, but still!) than the 310-mile range Tesla quoted for the LR battery. Here's Jason's pic, via his Twitter page:
View attachment 246660

I think that's pretty common for a car when new. My S85 had an EPA of 265 miles, but showed 272 miles for the first 3 or 4 months, then dropped down.

 

[omgwtfbyobbq]

Ridiculous. If you own a Tesla you know it is impossible to drive a Tesla at slow speeds unless you are limping a few miles on a low charge. But 400 miles of slow driving a Tesla. Never. So for nonowners who think the 220 mile Model 3 will be fine for your needs, your needs had better be a lot less than 220 because you will definitely drive faster than the speeds the 220 is based on.

Haha, we'll see! My delivery window is November 17 to January 18, and I definitely drive on the slow side when I can.

 

[FlatSix911]

Ridiculous. If you own a Tesla you know it is impossible to drive a Tesla at slow speeds unless you are limping a few miles on a low charge. But 400 miles of slow driving a Tesla. Never. So for nonowners who think the 220 mile Model 3 will be fine for your needs, your needs had better be a lot less than 220 because you will definitely drive faster than the speeds the 220 is based on.

Although the power of a Tesla can be addicting, the 220 Mile range will be fine for the overwhelming majority of daily commuters.
When needed for long distance travel, the Tesla Supercharger network is unmatched for high speed charging... problem solved.