Still worth getting a Model 3 if Electricity costs more than Gas?

[Sandiegodoug]

My nem 1 agreement states can increase system by 10% but no more than 1kw peak
My case 4 panels. The other 2 would have not to be added officially. They don’t inspect additional panels,and installer says as long as you use the extra power sdge really doesn’t care anyway.

 

[Saghost]

Isn't the purpose of peak pricing to make some people not consume so much during that time? How can they do that if the peak time keeps moving? Do some systems, e.g. ACs, get a signal to shutdown ?

Two different concepts - explained with the same labels, unfortunately.

What he's referring to is the highest amount of power consumed at any point in the month, which power companies use to set the monthly connection fee. That can happen at any time of day or night, and it doesn't need to be the same time every day or month.

The peak period in time of use billing is generally fixed for a given month, though they may move over time to reflect the reality of the power market - all the installed solar in California has caused the companies to shift peak later in the day.

I've also seen a few utilities offer "real time pricing" where they charge what power costs on the utility market at that time - which can mean free power in the middle of the night in many markets.

 

[McRat]

Here's what it looks like:
Peak Demand by Day -

What that last hourly consumption looked like on that Peak Demand Day (22nd):

If you are really good at interpolation, you'll see that the Peak occurred at 07:00, and it was 9 kW.
However at 7:15 - 7:30 (off-peak) it was 11 kW, more than 20% higher than it would appear.

 

[McRat]

...
I've also seen a few utilities offer "real time pricing" where they charge what power costs on the utility market at that time ...

Watch out for RTP. On a hot day, the price for electricity can exceed $3/kWh, for me, if I switched to RTP my cap is $3.43 per kWh.

 

[Dave EV]

Demand Based metering is to be fought tooth and nail if they try to bring it to your area. It is the #1 enemy of EV charging and solar generation for residential customers.

I can definitely see why utilities want to institute demand charges to fight solar, but it makes no sense with regards to EVs (yes, I realize that current utility rates make quick charging very expensive for low demand sites). Utilities should be encouraging EVs as they are the best opportunity for revenue growth right now. That would be much better served by replacing demand charges with TOU to encourage EVs to charge when demand is low.

 

[McRat]

I can definitely see why utilities want to institute demand charges to fight solar, but it makes no sense with regards to EVs (yes, I realize that current utility rates make quick charging very expensive for low demand sites). Utilities should be encouraging EVs as they are the best opportunity for revenue growth right now. That would be much better served by replacing demand charges with TOU to encourage EVs to charge when demand is low.

If you look at the graph of my Demand, in particular, yesterday, if I arrived at work at 7am and plugged in a 10kW EVSE for 1 hr, I would suddenly have a Peak Demand of 21 kW for that entire month. That 10kW adds up to $173.20 to the monthly bill, but the kWh cost is only 75 cents. (10 x 0.075 per kWh). There is no Demand crunch for the utility company at 7am, but they can make a lot of money by doing that. 7am is Off-Peak, the time you are supposed to charge your car.

EDIT - Obviously I do not plug in before 10am right now, but not everybody has solar.

 

[SageBrush]

If you are part of the NEM 1.0 group (on Schedule NEM), and your system is less than 10kW, you can only increase it by no more than 1kW.

How is the one kW measured ? STC ? PTC ? Other ?

And how does the utility actually know, besides the owner notifying them ?

As an aside, one kW extra is some 6000 - 8000 miles a year for a Model 3. Not too shabby.
The marginal cost to add the extra panels will hopefully be cheap for most people.

 

[Moderatefan]

How efficient is your AC ? Is it maintained ?
The best of the latest have quite impressive COP values

The house is <10yo, so I'd think it should not be too bad. The electricity charges were not that high, I had larger expenses on a smaller house in MO. So, I think it is pretty efficient. It's just the difference between A/C and no A/C in terms of kWh used over month that is amazing. Not that much impressive in terms of dollar amount difference.

 

[brucet999]

Here in San Diego, residential, single family home. It looks like the cost of electricity will cost more than my gas car which currently gets 34mpg average citi / highway.

TOU plan for EV vehciles: https://www.sdge.com/sites/default/files/regulatory/1-1-18 Schedule EV-TOU & EV-TOU-2 Total Rates Tables.pdf

Here is the tiered plan I have now (We have solar so typically we stay in tier 1 but osmetimes lapse into tier 2 when running the AC in the summer (we get triple digits).
https://www.sdge.com/sites/default/files/regulatory/1-1-18 Schedule DR Total Rates Table.pdf
We have a small 1400sqft house, but we do not have natural gas, so electric water heater etc.

Best calculator I found is this one which does not have the 3, so I used the S instead... Hopefully you guys have a better calculator that will account for the model 3.
Electric Car Calculator

if I switch to SDG&E TOU plan for electric vehicles owners in the summer the average cost of electricity will be $.38 per kWh. Comes out to
$2,273.91 for the model S with my commute and $2,117.65 for my current ford focus that gets 34 mpg with gas at $3.20 a gallon.

I almost think a hybrid might be a better idea in terms of costs but I don't really want a hybrid I don't think I want either full gas / diesel or all electric. I really wanted a plugin so I can use the carpool lane at work. But you can get the sticker if you get a volt, but then I have a battery and gas engine maintenance... I guess now I know why I see so many Pri-i's (plural for pruis?)...

Power costs, drop closer to $.23.5 in the winter so maybe I should average that in? cost would be $.29 then bring the numbers to $1,712.81 for the model 3 which means it would still be slightly cheaper than gas.

Also what are the real tesla maintenance costs? I heard they are quite high for an electric vehicle. The bolt is essentially no maintenance until 100k miles then a coolant flush. Telsa model 3 is like $500 per year?

Not trying to pinch pennies here, but part of the idea of paying more for an electric vehicle is that your supposed to save on fueling it to compensate for your higher monthly payment which does not sound like that will be the case for most owners in San Diego, unless they are not charging at a single family home.

SDG&E should be able to run comparisons for you of Tiered vs TOU, at least for a few typical weeks, comparing your actual use in certain representative time periods to what it would have been under TOU.

What you also would need to know is how much would your PV would reduce the peak rate usage if you went TOU. If you have west-facing modules, all of your generation will be solidly in peak rate hours, so you might gain more cost savings from your solar than you do now.

Figure all of your home charging would be at off-peak , or Super Off Peak if they have it.

 

[gregd]

The OP brings up a good question, or rather, a good warning. I think we (the EV community) need to brace ourselves for the inevitable fight that the oil companies will launch in an attempt to forestall the extreme down-scaling that they face. One tactic, IMO, will likely be to cause fuel prices to be artificially low, in an attempt to unbalance the financial benefit of EV ownership to their favor. Given the price difference between the US and other parts of the world, one might argue this is already taking place. It certainly could get even more unbalanced as they fight for survival.

Our best defense to this, again IMO, is to take the offense, and to start now. Transparency is the key. Highlight the imbalance already in place - the subsidies and tax breaks the oil & gas industry already get (the GAO's estimate of $12,000 / car, with no 200k vehicle sunset). Detail the complete value chain from source to wheel, and the inherent efficiency of BEV design, to thwart the hydrogen-from-natural-gas play that is behind fuel cell push. Remind folks that there is no environmental impact to a "lithium spill" comparable to the damage caused by oil spills, and the toxic runoff when rain washes the oil dripped onto our roadways into the adjacent ecosystem. And when an ICE catches fire, that it is not news is telling - it's not newsworthy because it happens all the time.

So, to the OP's question, don't let the apparent fuel price difference affect your decision to buy a BEV. You are the one who is being bought.

 

[SageBrush]

The house is <10yo, so I'd think it should not be too bad.

If it is a contractor special, it is the pits.

Worth checking into if it is used much.

 

[McRat]

The OP brings up a good question, or rather, a good warning. I think we (the EV community) need to brace ourselves for the inevitable fight that the oil companies will launch in an attempt to forestall the extreme down-scaling that they face. ...

The gasoline sellers better hurry. If this means what I think it does, gas consumption is 1/2 what it was in 2009.

It's not a secret that US production can (and often is) sold on the international market. If we don't use the gasoline, another country will.

Much like Norway, we could end up in a position with a lot of electric cars, yet high oil production.

If you are buying an EV simply to avoid fossil fuels, you need to closely monitor where your electricity you use each time comes from.

Perhaps they should add a perfume to electricity that is Pure Green?

 

[brucet999]

That's why I did my own install.
But you also get a Free Bonus!!!
You learn what the government of your city and the utility think of you filthy 'do it yourselfers'. It will open your eyes.
Our utility, SCE doesn't mind it if you overproduce at all. They will buy all the surplus power you can make for 0.025/kWh while they still charge you for being hooked to the grid. In my case? $208 a month for nothing but the meter.

$208 per month for the meter? That's amazing! My SCE TOU-D-A plan charges about $10 per month for connection to the Grid and will impose about $10 per month "minimum usage fee" when I install enough solar to offset my total usage.

And, yes, they will pay a princely $0.025/kWh wholesale rate at year's end for excess uploaded. Shows you what a huge margin they operate under.

 

[McRat]

$208 per month for the meter? ...

That was 27 days. A full month is $231 per meter per month for TOU-GS-2-B, 20-200kW demand. If I can just keep under 20kW all year long 24/7 with only 2 slip-ups max (solar maintenance, AC malfunction, etc), I lose that $231/m customer fee.

You'd have to overproduce by roughly 1 MWh per month to go net 0 under TOU-GS-2-B.

 

[daniel]

Here in San Diego, residential, single family home. It looks like the cost of electricity will cost more than my gas car which currently gets 34mpg average citi / highway.
<...snip...>
Not trying to pinch pennies here, but part of the idea of paying more for an electric vehicle is that your supposed to save on fueling it to compensate for your higher monthly payment which does not sound like that will be the case for most owners in San Diego, unless they are not charging at a single family home.

With apologies for not having read the whole very long thread, I would like to offer my take on why the cost of gas vs. electricity should not play into your decision whether or not to buy a Model 3 (or other EV).

First, if the cost of car ownership is important (and it is for a lot of people, since not everyone is rich) then no new car is a wise decision. A few-years-old Honda Civic will cost you far less in total than any new car. It has always been the case, and EVs are no different, that a small used car from a reliable company will be your most economical transportation.

BUT, most of us buy a car with more in mind than the most economical transportation. Things that are important for me are safety (and Teslas get excellent safety ratings) and the environment: I don't like burning gasoline. It stinks, I don't like the vibration of a gas car when stopped, burning fossil fuels is wreaking havoc with our environment and making our city air a carcinogenic miasma, and the principal suppliers of petroleum are also the principal financiers of terrorism. Gasoline is just plain nasty stuff. As a side benefit, the torque and handling of a Tesla is awesome.

I know that many folks here have similar objections to gasoline that I have. You are probably considering various factors in choosing a car. If you can afford the Model 3, I think it would be your best choice even if the cost of electricity were greater than the cost of gasoline.

In 2004 when I bought my Prius, there was a lot of talk about whether the savings on gasoline justified the "hybrid surcharge." I replied that there was no other car to compare the Prius to and that just as nobody buys a Mustang to save on gas, I was not buying the Prius to save on gas. I liked the technology, and it burned less gas than any other car being sold at the time. I loved the Prius at first, but it got me interested in electric, and now when I have to drive it I'm not happy, because it is burning gas.

The Model 3 will be more fun to drive than any gas car, and that is worth something.

And yes, the charge for the annual maintenance for an S or an X is much more than I pay for my Prius. I could not find the charge for maintaining the Model 3.

 

[Asymmetry]

Depreciation and insurance costs is what you should be concerned about, "fuel" is a minor component when factor total cost of a car.

For my daily its ICE car $1.5K pa fuel. $60k Telsa will depreciate $20K (or more) in 3 years, then add insurance costs, fuel is only 10% if that.

Telsa wont save you money over a second hand ICE car at this stage.

 

[omgwtfbyobbq]

We are a small business who uses more power than a normal office environment, but the same would apply to small shops who run machinery or do welding. We have a 4000 sq ft temperature controlled laboratory area. 4 heat pumps are required to run 24/7/365 to maintain the required 68°-72° F window. Note that Peak Demand is measured in 15 minute blocks and is more of the bill of than actual power (kWh). By recharging EVs I accidentally pushed us into the 20-200 kW demand window (TOU-GS-2B), and I'm trying to fix it with solar.

Before energy efficiency mods, and solar, we were $900-$2500 a month. Wide variation is due to higher Summer tariffs and the occasional heat wave up to 115°F or higher, and the short 15 minute demand window. Summer highest, Winter second, spring/fall lowest. Your worst 15 minutes of a month defines your bill. You can have 3 months in a year where you hit over 20kW for 15 min or more, and be pushed into this tariff. Note for a business, that's a total draw of 42 amps for everything, and about 120 amps for a residence depending on how much of your amps are at 240v vs 120v. We are not talking 'medium business' power levels, which are far higher.

We reduced grid energy consumption a total of 64% so far and the bills are 40% less so far. Seeing a bill that started with a 5 was quite a shock.

BUT! We were only 18-32 kW Peak Demand (average about 24 kW) which occurs from noon-3pm normally which is solar time.
When we stay under 20kW for 12 months (or I fight them about it early), we will drop into a conventional TOU plan which will reward lower electric use with lower cost per kWh and our bills will be under 50%

Why is this relevant to residential customers? Demand-based billing first started with large businesses. Then medium, then small, and there is a push toward residential demand based billing. Demand based billing will harm solar users more than any other group. A home with an EV can easily hit 20kWh, which adds about $400 to your bill even if you only did that for 15 minutes during the month. Then you also pay for power you use.

SCE's already doing TOU with new residential PV installs. I'm fine with it because I can point my array west and swap that high cost production for more lower cost consumption off peak, but I have a lot of lattitude in scheduling demand.

Have you looked into using evaporative cooling to reduce the peak power draw for your HVAC system? It wouldn't do much most of the time, but it could help a lot when it's 100+ with low humidity. I've also read about businesses creating ice to use during peak demand, but that's a lot more expensive.

https://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy12osti/54239.pdf
Increasing AC Efficiency Using Evaporative Cooling of Condenser Coil

Edit - http://fsec.ucf.edu/en/publications/pdf/fsec-cr-1972-14.pdf

Edit2 - Apparently a well designed system can cut power draw by 40+% at 95+, which is substantial.
http://fsec.ucf.edu/en/publications/pdf/fsec-cr-1972-14.pdf

 

[Garlan Garner]

The title of this thread isn't possible.

 

[David29]

The TOU plan shows .23/kWh charging during the super off peak time (presumably during the night but it doesn’t specify). That’s when the vast majority of your charging will be. That seems crazy expensive for a middle of the night rate, but it’s still less than buying gasoline. Anyway saving money on gas isn’t the only or even the best reason to drive an EV.

Wow. And here i had understood that Eversource in eastern MA was the most expensive power in the continental USA. 23 cents is worse than Eversource (though not by very much).

 

[David29]

Here in San Diego, residential, single family home. It looks like the cost of electricity will cost more than my gas car which currently gets 34mpg average citi / highway.

TOU plan for EV vehciles: https://www.sdge.com/sites/default/files/regulatory/1-1-18 Schedule EV-TOU & EV-TOU-2 Total Rates Tables.pdf

Here is the tiered plan I have now (We have solar so typically we stay in tier 1 but osmetimes lapse into tier 2 when running the AC in the summer (we get triple digits).
https://www.sdge.com/sites/default/files/regulatory/1-1-18 Schedule DR Total Rates Table.pdf
We have a small 1400sqft house, but we do not have natural gas, so electric water heater etc.

Best calculator I found is this one which does not have the 3, so I used the S instead... Hopefully you guys have a better calculator that will account for the model 3.
Electric Car Calculator

if I switch to SDG&E TOU plan for electric vehicles owners in the summer the average cost of electricity will be $.38 per kWh. Comes out to
$2,273.91 for the model S with my commute and $2,117.65 for my current ford focus that gets 34 mpg with gas at $3.20 a gallon.

I almost think a hybrid might be a better idea in terms of costs but I don't really want a hybrid I don't think I want either full gas / diesel or all electric. I really wanted a plugin so I can use the carpool lane at work. But you can get the sticker if you get a volt, but then I have a battery and gas engine maintenance... I guess now I know why I see so many Pri-i's (plural for pruis?)...

Power costs, drop closer to $.23.5 in the winter so maybe I should average that in? cost would be $.29 then bring the numbers to $1,712.81 for the model 3 which means it would still be slightly cheaper than gas.

Also what are the real tesla maintenance costs? I heard they are quite high for an electric vehicle. The bolt is essentially no maintenance until 100k miles then a coolant flush. Telsa model 3 is like $500 per year?

Not trying to pinch pennies here, but part of the idea of paying more for an electric vehicle is that your supposed to save on fueling it to compensate for your higher monthly payment which does not sound like that will be the case for most owners in San Diego, unless they are not charging at a single family home.

As you imply in the last two paragraphs of your post, it's not just the "fuel" cost that one would look at to compare the cost of two alternative vehicles or technologies. You need to look at the entire cost, reduced to a per mile basis -- purchase, financing, "fuel," maintenance, repairs, licensing, insurance, etc. Looking only at the per-mile cost of the energy to move the vehicle is an incomplete basis for deciding on the vehicle. For an ICE car, gasoline is a small portion of the total cost per mile, and so is power a small portion of the total cost of Tesla or other EV.

I suspect most people don't really know the total per-mile cost of a vehicle but focus on just part of the equation -- purchase price, or fuel cost/mile, etc. -- as their measure of cost. But then do some sort of judgment of the utility, attractiveness, and overall cost.