Tesla BEV Competition Developments

[Doggydogworld]

One way to think about this - I believe the car industry has consistently been on a trajectory where every doubling of the total units manufactured to date is worth another 15% cost reduction. For the ICE market with a few billion cars manufactured over all time, that means that another few billion need to be manufactured to find the next 15% cost reduction.

For TSLA with maybe 1M cars manufactured, the next 1M will lead to another 15% cost reduction; then 2M manufacturing for another 15% cost reduction, etc.. TSLA might see 4 or 6 of these 15% cost reductions piling on top of each other over the next decade. That will be a very tough cost curve for the ICE industry to keep up with.

The 15% thing really only applies to the drive train. The rest of Tesla's COGS mostly come from the same vendors who supply ICE. Those parts are way, way down the cost curve.

I believe the first Ys out of Berlin will be LFP, using packs built by CATL. Same as 3 and soon Y in China. 500 km WLTP is achievable and plenty for Europe. CATL CTP is a structural design, though maybe not as stiff as and certainly with a higher polar moment of inertia than Tesla's glued 4680 concept.

4680 high nickel will come later, IMHO, or perhaps never absent a DBE breakthrough. I see LFP taking over all but the high end. Even Mercedes plans to use LFP for low- and mid-range. It's heavier, but costs less and is safer with excellent cycle life.

I give a 5-10% chance CATL developed a glued 4680 LFP pack together with Tesla. That would help explain the delay in the Shanghai LFP Model 3. But most likely it's the same prismatic cells they use in their other CTP designs. CTP from CATL and others (e.g. BYD's Blade) have a lot of advantages. I suspect Tesla's structural pack is basically an adaptation of these CTP designs to a cylindrical form factor.

 

[SmartElectric]

The 15% thing really only applies to the drive train. The rest of Tesla's COGS mostly come from the same vendors who supply ICE. Those parts are way, way down the cost curve.
I believe the first Ys out of Berlin will be LFP, using packs built by CATL.

Tesla Model Y from Giga Berlin will utilize 4680 cells and structural battery pack

Not likely that CATL will build packs, didn't include the rest of your speculation because Musk already outlined the plan today on Twitter that is different than your assertions.

Tesla is vertically integrated to the point where they make their own seats, motors, packs, soon it will also be cells. Sure, they buy off the shelf brakes, but the parts of the car absolutely do not substantially "come from the same vendors who supply ICE", that's not an assertion you can back up with facts. Tesla has hardware and software in the car of their own design and they outsource production to the same people that make your cell phone, that's not what the other OEM's do, and not by a long way.

 

[Doggydogworld]

Tesla Model Y from Giga Berlin will utilize 4680 cells and structural battery pack

Not likely that CATL will build packs, didn't include the rest of your speculation because Musk already outlined the plan today on Twitter that is different than your assertions.

I said what I did because of Musk's tweets. He said Tesla will make 4680s in Berlin. They're currently working out bugs and trying to scale 4680s in Kato Road. Elon predicted scaling would take one Muskyear. Meanwhile they're building an entire plant that's permitted for everything except cell and pack production. Furthermore, Elon followed the 4680 tweet two minutes later with: "We do expect to make heavy use of LFP for medium range cars & stationary storage". Why would he mention LFP in that thread if their GF Berlin plan was exclusively 4680?

To me this says they'll start with a LFP Model Y-MR in Q2, followed later by LR/P versions that use high nickel 4680s. If Kato Road continues to struggle with DBE or some other aspect of scaling GF Berlin can just keep pumping out LFP cars. They'll have their hands full ramping the new castings, paint shop, etc. as it is.

Tesla is vertically integrated to the point where they make their own seats, motors, packs, soon it will also be cells.

Except for seats that's all drive train, just as I said. Elon always talks about buying 10,000 parts and if any one vendor is late it delays the whole vehicle launch. It's taking a year to move to local sourcing of all the parts that go into the MIC 3. That's obviously a lot more than just "brakes".

 

[JRP3]

Why would he mention LFP in that thread if their GF Berlin plan was exclusively 4680?

Model Y will probably only come in long range, battery day slide showed the Y in the Nickel Manganese Long Range category,

 

[mongo]

Model Y will probably only come in long range, battery day slide showed the Y in the Nickel Manganese Long Range category,

That lines up with what Elon said:
Twitter
No SR Y.

 

[RobStark]

Elon didn't start seat manufacturing to gain a competitive advantage on legacy OEMs.

Tesla was getting hosed on price because they weren't ordering seats in the millions.

The robot made fronts seats are now probably cheaper to Tesla than what GM pays.

But the hand assembled rear bench seats are probably not.

 

[30seconds]

The 15% thing really only applies to the drive train. The rest of Tesla's COGS mostly come from the same vendors who supply ICE. Those parts are way, way down the cost curve.

I believe the first Ys out of Berlin will be LFP, using packs built by CATL. Same as 3 and soon Y in China. 500 km WLTP is achievable and plenty for Europe. CATL CTP is a structural design, though maybe not as stiff as and certainly with a higher polar moment of inertia than Tesla's glued 4680 concept.

4680 high nickel will come later, IMHO, or perhaps never absent a DBE breakthrough. I see LFP taking over all but the high end. Even Mercedes plans to use LFP for low- and mid-range. It's heavier, but costs less and is safer with excellent cycle life.

I give a 5-10% chance CATL developed a glued 4680 LFP pack together with Tesla. That would help explain the delay in the Shanghai LFP Model 3. But most likely it's the same prismatic cells they use in their other CTP designs. CTP from CATL and others (e.g. BYD's Blade) have a lot of advantages. I suspect Tesla's structural pack is basically an adaptation of these CTP designs to a cylindrical form factor.

Why wouldn't Tesla realize cost savings from the castings used for Berlin Y? Lighter & less assembly should lead to both lower production costs as well as reduced battery size (costs) for same range as Fremont Y.

 

[MP3Mike]

Why wouldn't Tesla realize cost savings from the castings used for Berlin Y? Lighter & less assembly should lead to both lower production costs as well as reduced battery size (costs) for same range as Fremont Y.

The Fremont Y already uses rear castings. And I don't think the front castings reduce that much weight.

 

[JRP3]

Amazon/Rivian van Amazon just showed off its first custom electric van of a planned 100,000 vehicle fleet — take a look at the delivery van of the future complete with Alexa built-in

 

[JRP3]

Tom Nash takes a look at Lordstown Motors

 

[heltok]

Watch out Tesla!
Hyundai begins building electric vehicle hub in Singapore
Speaking at the groundbreaking ceremony, Singapore Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong said the facility may produce up to 30,000 electric vehicles (EVs) annually by 2025 and represents an investment of S$400 million ($295 million).

 

[mikevbf]

VW trying to undercut Tesla price/range in Europe:
https://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money...eapest-VW-ID-3-electric-car-start-30-000.html

 

[colettimj]

VW trying to undercut Tesla price/range in Europe:
Cheapest VW ID.3 electric car to start from under £30,000 | This is Money

• "Seven new versions of the all-electric VW ID.3 range have been confirmed
• Cheapest is the ID.3 Life, which starts at £29,990 including a government grant
• Six will use a 58kWh battery and have ranges of between 258 and 263 miles
• The £40k ID.3 Tour with a higher-capacity 77kWh battery has a 336-mile range
• This puts it in contention with the long-distance Tesla Model 3, which is 7k more
• Volkswagen has also confirmed a number of cheaper variants for 2021 with smaller batteries and shorter ranges on a single charge"

They seem like quite nice vehicles. The cheapest 3, the SR+, has a 5.3s 0-60 mph time and they don't mention that in the article.

Here's the table with the ID.3 specs...
Edit: Huh, just saw that the most expensive ID.3 has the longest range but is the least quick version.

 

[RobStark]

 

[mikevbf]

• "Seven new versions of the all-electric VW ID.3 range have been confirmed
• Cheapest is the ID.3 Life, which starts at £29,990 including a government grant
• Six will use a 58kWh battery and have ranges of between 258 and 263 miles
• The £40k ID.3 Tour with a higher-capacity 77kWh battery has a 336-mile range
• This puts it in contention with the long-distance Tesla Model 3, which is 7k more
• Volkswagen has also confirmed a number of cheaper variants for 2021 with smaller batteries and shorter ranges on a single charge"

They seem like quite nice vehicles. The cheapest 3, the SR+, has a 5.3s 0-60 mph time and they don't mention that in the article.

Here's the table with the ID.3 specs...
View attachment 598378

There is enough of a market for both VW and Tesla in Europe. It's actually a nice hit on ICE vehicles probably if they can really ramp it up. I wonder if VW is able to do this at a profit? It will also be interesting to see what the numbers look like when Giga Berlin comes online and ramps.

 

[mrdoubleb]

• "Seven new versions of the all-electric VW ID.3 range have been confirmed
• Cheapest is the ID.3 Life, which starts at £29,990 including a government grant
• Six will use a 58kWh battery and have ranges of between 258 and 263 miles
• The £40k ID.3 Tour with a higher-capacity 77kWh battery has a 336-mile range
• This puts it in contention with the long-distance Tesla Model 3, which is 7k more
• Volkswagen has also confirmed a number of cheaper variants for 2021 with smaller batteries and shorter ranges on a single charge"

They seem like quite nice vehicles. The cheapest 3, the SR+, has a 5.3s 0-60 mph time and they don't mention that in the article.

Here's the table with the ID.3 specs...
View attachment 598378

The 77kWh ID3 is officially a 4 seater - no seatbelts or certification for 5 people. Also, consumption at (European) highway speeds is 25% higher than the Model 3 while charging is max 125kw for the big battery version vs the 200-250 for Model 3 - although the charge curve is a lot better).

 

[RobStark]

Base Lucid Air MSRP of $77,400 - $7,500 Federal Credit = $69,900

 

[mikevbf]

Base Lucid Air MSRP of $77,400 - $7,500 Federal Credit = $69,900

What is their current target date for this variant?

 

[RobStark]

What is their current target date for this variant?

"2022"

 

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

Here's the table with the ID.3 specs...
Edit: Huh, just saw that the most expensive ID.3 has the longest range but is the least quick version.

That's because it's just a battery capacity increase. The extra weight slows it down.
It's for people who want extra range and charging speed. So, .lots of people.

So far it seems like the ID.3 is another step up in compact BEVs. As it should be, as a new EV on a dedicated platform.