Tesla BEV Competition Developments

[RobStark]

Toyota revealed it will have 15 BEVs by 2030 and plans 3.5M BEV sales/deliveries in 2030. It currently sells just a bit over 10M vehicles per year.

Lexus will become 100% electric in China, Europe and North America by 2030.

Toyota And Lexus Preview EV Onslaught, Unveil 15 Future Models

Not counting the bZ4X, Toyota has previewed 15 upcoming EVs from the Toyota and Lexus brands during a press briefing held in Japan on December 14.

insideevs.com

 

[Doggydogworld]

Toyota revealed it will have 15 BEVs by 2030 and plans 3.5M BEV sales/deliveries in 2030. It currently sells just a bit over 10M vehicles per year.

This article says "30 battery EVs" by 2030. They showed 15 mostly mock-ups (think Solar Roof launch) for appearances sake.

I assume the 3.5m/year by 2030 is annual sales, but it could be interpreted as cumulative which would be laughably weak. The 3.5m includes fuel cell cars, so only 3.499m BEVs, lol. Actually, it might include PHEVs, too. There's always some confusion when journalists try to interpret corpspeak.

 

[Knightshade]

Remember, Toyota is the company that advertised hybrids as 'self charging" electric cars.

 

[transpondster]

Remember, Toyota is the company that advertised hybrids as 'self charging" electric cars.

in my country I saw it advertised as "fully hybrid EV" ...

 

[Knightshade]

In many others they literally called it self-charging, playing up the fact you never have to compromise (unless you count still needing gasoline as a compromise) and praising how you never have to plug it in.

 

[Doggydogworld]

BYD aiming at 1.2m EVs next year. Roughly 50/50 split between BEV and PHEV. They used to be 75-80% BEV, but demand PHEVs has soared. PHEVs also stretch their battery supply, of course.

BYD has pulled ahead of VW Group globally but won't quite catch Tesla. Q4 should end up something like:
Tesla 280k
BYD 270k
VW Group 200k?
SAIC/SGMW 180k

VW Group outsold Tesla in Q4 2020 and again in Q2 of this year, but seems to have flatlined around 200k/quarter. SAIC/SGMW is heavily reliant on the ultra-cheap Hongguang Mini. Nobody else is really in the game, though Stellantis might exceed 100k.

 

[Oil4AsphaultOnly]

BYD aiming at 1.2m EVs next year. Roughly 50/50 split between BEV and PHEV. They used to be 75-80% BEV, but demand PHEVs has soared. PHEVs also stretch their battery supply, of course.

BYD has pulled ahead of VW Group globally but won't quite catch Tesla. Q4 should end up something like:
Tesla 280k
BYD 270k
VW Group 200k?
SAIC/SGMW 180k

VW Group outsold Tesla in Q4 2020 and again in Q2 of this year, but seems to have flatlined around 200k/quarter. SAIC/SGMW is heavily reliant on the ultra-cheap Hongguang Mini. Nobody else is really in the game, though Stellantis might exceed 100k.

So BYD is on track to outsell Toyota by 2030, if not sooner? What excuses will Akio make then?

 

[RobStark]

Rob Mauer showed the Toyota press release on his Tesla Daily on youtube.

It said 3.5M battery electric vehicles in 2030. Not "by" 2030.

Lexus being fully electric vehicles by 2035.

 

[Oil4AsphaultOnly]

Toyota's Q3 sales were abysmal: Toyota U.S Sales Figures

And blaming it on a shortage of chips is scapegoating, since their Q1 and Q2 numbers didn't look too bad.

 

[Porfiry]

Toyota revealed it will have 15 BEVs by 2030 and plans 3.5M BEV sales/deliveries in 2030. It currently sells just a bit over 10M vehicles per year.

Very excited to see an FJ Cruiser style EV being promised. Take my money!

 

[RobStark]

Toyota's Q3 sales were abysmal: Toyota U.S Sales Figures

And blaming it on a shortage of chips is scapegoating, since their Q1 and Q2 numbers didn't look too bad.

Supplies are not necessarily consistent right now.

 

[Knightshade]

Very excited to see an FJ Cruiser style EV being promised. Take my money!

They'd need an actual vehicle, not a clay model with no interior (and a black windshield to hide that fact) first.

 

[Doggydogworld]

And blaming it on a shortage of chips is scapegoating, since their Q1 and Q2 numbers didn't look too bad.

You have to account for lags. Even if manufacturing stopped completely they were enough cars on dealer lots to maintain sales for two months. And it would take a month or two after chip shipments stopped completely before they would have to shut down manufacturing. And chip supply didn't shut down completely, it just slowed down. That's why it took so long for problems to show up in customer sales data.

 

[Porfiry]

They'd need an actual vehicle, not a clay model with no interior (and a black windshield to hide that fact) first.

I’m willing to wait. A clay model is more than Tesla has in this segment.

 

[RobStark]

BTW My guess is that 3 Toyota BEVs (BZ4X, BZ5X( 3 row CUV), EV Pickup) can consume all of Toyota's battery supply in 2030. Are they really going to have 30 global models? As Elon has said regarding Tesla, increasing models doesn't increase sales just complexity.

 

[DarkandStormy]

new BEV models

neue Modelle total number of new and upcoming BEV models = 814,for tips, corrections and questions contact:,<a href="https://twitter.com/Stephan9015">Stephan90 (@Stephan9015) / Twitter</a> - this list only includes pure battery electric passenger vehicles, passenger versions of light commercial...

docs.google.com

Not sure if this has been shared, but someone put together a Google Doc (Sheets) of all upcoming BEV models. Supposedly, 137 will be introduced next year (personally, I doubt we see the # that high). Has projections out to 2024 and then a 2025 & beyond column.

 

[RobStark]

5 years ago Kreisel had a whole lotta buzz in Europe. People were saying they had battery tech superior to Tesla.

John Deere buys Kreisel Electric, plans to electrify its lineup

John Deere has been working to electrify its vehicle lineup for years, but the effort is expected to accelerate now...

electrek.co

 

[JRP3]

5 years ago Kreisel had a whole lotta buzz in Europe. People were saying they had battery tech superior to Tesla.

John Deere buys Kreisel Electric, plans to electrify its lineup

John Deere has been working to electrify its vehicle lineup for years, but the effort is expected to accelerate now...

electrek.co

The cooling is interesting but I don't see superior tech. Technology - Kreisel Electric

John Deere to Acquire Majority Ownership in Kreisel Electric

-- Kreisel Electric produces innovative battery technology for e-mobility and stationary systems. -- This investment will provide John Deere with optimal...

www.prnewswire.com

 

[wdolson]

You have to account for lags. Even if manufacturing stopped completely they were enough cars on dealer lots to maintain sales for two months. And it would take a month or two after chip shipments stopped completely before they would have to shut down manufacturing. And chip supply didn't shut down completely, it just slowed down. That's why it took so long for problems to show up in customer sales data.

Toyota is so large and they have many supplier contracts. They may have had enough supply locked down and in the chain at the beginning of the year to build as many cars as planned for the first 4 months or so and then the sales the rest of the 2nd quarter were supply being sucked up from dealer lots. Traditional car makers have a longer tail from factory to buyer's garage than Tesla has. Unless you made a special order, the car you're buying at a Toyota dealership may have been made 6 months ago.

5 years ago Kreisel had a whole lotta buzz in Europe. People were saying they had battery tech superior to Tesla.

John Deere buys Kreisel Electric, plans to electrify its lineup

John Deere has been working to electrify its vehicle lineup for years, but the effort is expected to accelerate now...

electrek.co

I'm skeptical about the battery claims. If they had superior battery technology and were for sale, Tesla probably would have bought them.

Electrified farm equipment is, IMO, the next low hanging fruit in electrification. Some farm equipment gets used non-stop for weeks on end, but much of it is used off and on throughout the day and could easily sit on a charger when not in use.

Every fall I stock up on apples from an orchard near Hood River, OR (I get enough to have apples until March). Over the years I've become friendly with the owner and he's a huge Tesla fan. He said he wishes he could find electric farm equipment. He would love to replace his old ICE John Deere with an EV. Maybe in a few years he'll be able to.

 

[Buckminster]

Some interesting features: