Tesla BEV Competition Developments

[anticitizen13.7]

OMG, Hyundai is coming! Sell, sell, sell!

Seriously, I hope they sell a million of them by 2020. It will only help Tesla and the planet.

From what I'm seeing, the Hyundai Ioniq will be sold as Hybrid, Plug-in Hybrid, and Battery only. This is a similar approach to the Honda Clarity program, which uses a single platform and body to accommodate Hydrogen, Hybrid, and Battery variants.

The problem with this approach, as I've discussed elsewhere, is that the different powertrains have different functional elements, so a platform designed to accommodate multiple powertrain types will never be optimal for all of them.

For example, Hybrid and PHEV variants have a gasoline engine, which usually requires a channel for exhaust (need room for Catalytic converter, exhaust piping, and muffler beneath the car). This prevents the use of a skateboard form factor battery pack found in Model S, or requires the gasoline engine to be mounted in the back, which reduces rear passenger space and cargo capacity. We don't yet know how Hyundai has designed the Ioniq, but I am fairly certain that the shared platform comes with inevitable tradeoffs that wouldn't occur if the car had been designed from the ground up to be a BEV.

That's the problem Honda has with the Clarity. The basic structure of the car isn't built around a skateboard pack, so the PHEV and EV variants will have to have the batteries where the fuel tanks are: blocking part of the trunk and under the rear passenger seat (no folding bench, less cargo space, higher center of gravity).

Hyundai's marketing emphasis on: "Great fuel economy" (direct quote from The Verge article), suggests that the Ioniq was designed as a hybrid and plug-in hybrid first, with BEV as a secondary consideration.

 

[Bangor Bob]

if demand increases? So no location, no finances, no construction and permits yet?
This is one dream competitor to have indeed. The race is already over. For lg.

LG has indicated they will build capacity near their customers. The race hasn't even started yet, the runners are still in the sports performance lab working on their strides. There are 100,000 vehicles/year getting batteries today. Battery capacity for the other 99.9875% of the passenger & light duty market it up for grabs and will be for years. Along with an even bigger percentage of OTR trucks, heavy-duty, off-highway, etc., etc...

Battery companies will rise and fall, that's about the only certainty. Picking a "winner" today is like picking a winning solar module manufacture in 2001-ish.

 

[stopcrazypp]

LG has indicated they will build capacity near their customers. The race hasn't even started yet, the runners are still in the sports performance lab working on their strides. There are 100,000 vehicles/year getting batteries today. Battery capacity for the other 99.9875% of the passenger & light duty market it up for grabs and will be for years. Along with an even bigger percentage of OTR trucks, heavy-duty, off-highway, etc., etc...

Battery companies will rise and fall, that's about the only certainty. Picking a "winner" today is like picking a winning solar module manufacture in 2001-ish.

LG is in good position relatively. It is Samsung and GS Yuasa that have their work cut out for them.

 

[woof]

Wow! If I mentioned on this forum that I've got an HP-41c with that nifty card reader attachment I'd be willing to sell, I bet I'd get talked to by a Mod, so I'd better not.

I Loved my 41c...till it fell apart. So, I sent it back and got another one! That fell down, cracked open, then fell apart. So, I got a third. And the third one...fell apart. Gah. HP quality wasn't what it used to be, even back when it was. Don't get me started on the POS the 28S turned out to be.

Still very annoyed that school district here demands the use of TI. My poor son went through high school without the joy of RPN.

 

[BriansTesla]

If oil prices remain depressed I am inclined to agree with you. I just do not think there is going to be sustained consumer demand for BEV's with gas prices as low as they are. I think we will see how the market reacts to the mid-ranged consumer oriented cars that will be out sooner, such as the Bolt, next Gen Leaf and i3. I think that Fuels cells will be dead before they really make it out of the gate. If oil shoots up to $100+ it is a whole new game. Sadly, gas consumers have short memories.

I have thought about this a lot and I believe there will be enough competition in BEV's in the next 5 years to reveal that electric vehicles really are better in every way. As they get better and cheaper major manufacturers will step up or die. BEV's will win out because they will absolutely be better cars. I think even the deniers know this deep down. ICE will die a slow but inevitable death.

 

[wdolson]

I have thought about this a lot and I believe there will be enough competition in BEV's in the next 5 years to reveal that electric vehicles really are better in every way. As they get better and cheaper major manufacturers will step up or die. BEV's will win out because they will absolutely be better cars. I think even the deniers know this deep down. ICE will die a slow but inevitable death.

Tesla has proven that BEVs can be superior to ICE cars in every way except two (at this time): the price and energy density in the battery pack/range. Both of these will improve with time and in the meantime Tesla has a work around that works well enough (superchargers). Unless there is some kind of massive breakthrough in battery chemistry that nobody thinks possible at this time, energy density in battery packs will never reach the same point as gasoline (which has a staggering energy density), but it will definitely get better over time.

 

[Grendal]

From what I'm seeing, the Hyundai Ioniq will be sold as Hybrid, Plug-in Hybrid, and Battery only. This is a similar approach to the Honda Clarity program, which uses a single platform and body to accommodate Hydrogen, Hybrid, and Battery variants.

Hyundai's marketing emphasis on: "Great fuel economy" (direct quote from The Verge article), suggests that the Ioniq was designed as a hybrid and plug-in hybrid first, with BEV as a secondary consideration.

So fundamentally, the Ioniq is yet another vehicle that will be transformed into an EV and directly compared to its ICE and, in this case, hybrid counterpart. If the EV version is even $5K more (it won't) then it will just be a niche version. It will get ZEV credits and CARB compliancy and I expect little else. It sounds from the current articles that Hyundai is most interested in taking a shot at Toyota and the Prius. I expect the EV version to be an afterthought and have very limited sales.

 

[tftf]

OMG, Hyundai is coming! Sell, sell, sell!
Seriously, I hope they sell a million of them by 2020..

Again, the problem for Tesla imho isn't a single competing car model or brand (Ioniq, Bolt, Leaf, Zoe etc.).

It's rather the fact that any large car maker can now pick up the phone (most of them already did, see LG Chem's impressive battery customer list) and order similar batteries to create longer-range, mass-market EVs.

Hyundai, GM and Nissan are just among the first to do so. All the others have to follow soon to comply with 2020-2025 emission regulations, it's inevitable.

But apparently this upcoming flood of (longer-range) EVs and improved PHEVs is now suddenly positive for Tesla. The bull arguments were exactly the opposite before these cars were announced (only Tesla is able to make "real" long-range EVs, only Tesla is serious about EVs, only Tesla has enough battery supply, only Tesla has a DC charging network in place...or to sum up, Tesla is years ahead and there's no credible competition. All the companies are stuck doing age-old ICE cars and will go the way of dinosaurs).

 

[ggr]

I Loved my 41c...till it fell apart. So, I sent it back and got another one! That fell down, cracked open, then fell apart. So, I got a third. And the third one...fell apart. Gah. HP quality wasn't what it used to be, even back when it was. Don't get me started on the POS the 28S turned out to be.

Still very annoyed that school district here demands the use of TI. My poor son went through high school without the joy of RPN.

OT: We just donated our working HP65 (first programmable HP handheld, also had a card reader, '74 vintage) to the British National Museum of Computing at Bletchley Park.

 

[SebastianR]

It's rather the fact that any large car maker can now pick up the phone (most of them already did, see LG Chem's impressive battery customer list) and order similar batteries to create longer-range, mass-market EVs.

Again, I really wished this would happen. But I didn't see it happen. There is no proof to substantiate the claim that "most of them" are buying any significant number of batteries at all. And there is simply no other "long-range, mass-market EV" in existence. But I sense this discussion is going in circles.

 

[Yggdrasill]

But apparently this upcoming flood of (longer-range) EVs and improved PHEVs is now suddenly positive for Tesla. The bull arguments were exactly the opposite before these cars were announced (only Tesla is able to make "real" long-range EVs, only Tesla is serious about EVs, only Tesla has enough battery supply, only Tesla has a DC charging network in place...or to sum up, Tesla is years ahead and there's no credible competition. All the companies are stuck doing age-old ICE cars and will go the way of dinosaurs).

I would say that for Tesla, competition can be can be neutral, positive or negative. For the most part, my money is on a result close to neutral.

Positive: Some car companies are expected to adopt the Tesla charging standard. This will bring more money into the network enabling expansion, and increasing the utility to Tesla owners. This in turn will be a significant selling point.
Positive: As the number of compelling long range BEVs increases, the hydrogen folly becomes more and more obvious. This will lead to worsening market conditions for hydrogen cars, and improving market conditions for BEVs.
Positive: Lesser BEVs can act as a gateway drug - quite a number of Tesla owners started out with Volts, Leafs, Priuses, etc. I would expect Tesla to maintain it's head start in the premium segment for at least 5-10 years.
Positive: As the number of affordable and compelling long range BEVs increases, BEVs will likely no longer be viewed as toys for the rich. This will increase interest among the general population and bring more prospective customers to Teslas stores and web site.
Neutral: Other car comanies are focusing for the most part on filling niches Tesla does not. For some years, Tesla will likely have the only long range BEVs with AWD, tow hitch, ludicrous acceleration, etc. The market is far to big for Tesla to take the whole pie, and that's fine.
Negative: Without a monopoly on long-range BEVs, Tesla won't be able to charge any amount they feel like for their cars. Their margins will probably be challenged to some extent.

I could continue. But my point is that some factors work for Tesla, others against.

 

[stopcrazypp]

Again, the problem for Tesla imho isn't a single competing car model or brand (Ioniq, Bolt, Leaf, Zoe etc.).

It's rather the fact that any large car maker can now pick up the phone (most of them already did, see LG Chem's impressive battery customer list) and order similar batteries to create longer-range, mass-market EVs.

Hyundai, GM and Nissan are just among the first to do so. All the others have to follow soon to comply with 2020-2025 emission regulations, it's inevitable.

But apparently this upcoming flood of (longer-range) EVs and improved PHEVs is now suddenly positive for Tesla. The bull arguments were exactly the opposite before these cars were announced (only Tesla is able to make "real" long-range EVs, only Tesla is serious about EVs, only Tesla has enough battery supply, only Tesla has a DC charging network in place...or to sum up, Tesla is years ahead and there's no credible competition. All the companies are stuck doing age-old ICE cars and will go the way of dinosaurs).

The positive part for Tesla is that more long range EVs offered in the market legitimizes EVs. It's not a zero sum game. The bears assume EVs are a zero sum niche such that any competitors entering will crowd Tesla out of the market, when the reality is that the market for EVs has huge room to grow.

That said, that does not mean Tesla will not be able to maintain a leading position compared to competitors. Once again, you have hand waved away the actual volumes that Tesla's competitors will be having compared to Tesla.

Basically you feel the "wait and see" approach will be superior and all the large automakers have to do is sit around and wait for battery companies to improve the technology and the swoop in and steal the entire market while buying their batteries. That neglects to factor that approach gives battery companies leverage in terms of setting the price. So far there is indication LG Chem only gave a good price to GM (that is why they were so upset about GM revealing their price), while others later in the game can be offered different prices.

It also underestimates the branding advantage Tesla already has as a long range EV maker. Other automakers expected they could swoop in and steal the hybrid market from Toyota's Prius brand, but they have failed. And before you use that as a first mover example with regards to Bolt vs Model 3, keep in mind the Insight actually was first, but that did not help them given the short time difference.

 

[SebastianR]

The positive part for Tesla is that more long range EVs offered in the market legitimizes EVs. It's not a zero sum game.

This! There are organisations that can't buy a Model S right now. Why? Well, because there are no "three comparable products" out there for which an RFQ could be run. If you had a number of long-range EVs you would really open the market. But again, sadly I don't see that happening right now

 

[tftf]

...no proof to substantiate the claim that "most of them" are buying any significant number of batteries at all. And there is simply no other "long-range, mass-market EV" in existence.

Car manufacturers already have contracts in place because battery supply needs lead time. Most of them will offer longer-range EVs by 2018-2020, some of them well before that (it looks like there will be a race to market between Hyundai and GM, Nissan-Renault will likely follow shortly after them).

I also don't understand why you write "no other". Tesla has long-range EVs, but they certainly aren't mass-market before the "cheaper" Model3 is on sale, even in countries with high purchasing power (and I have high doubts the base Model3 will only cost around $35k since Tesla promises "industry-leading margins" and "BMW 3-series like specs" or won't be delayed for another 1-2 years after the first Model3 goes on sale).

 

[WarpedOne]

Model S is already MORE mass-market than Bolt will be for some time to come.

Santa wont build battery factories.

 

[tftf]

Model S is already MORE mass-market than Bolt will be for some time to come.

The Model S simply isn't a mass-market car, the ATP for new cars is around $30k. Even the Model3 will be upper mass-market at $35-50k. Otherwise, you have to redefine what a mass-market car is.

 

[Krugerrand]

The Model S simply isn't a mass-market car...

Reading comprehension is a tough skill to learn....WarpedOne did NOT say Model S was a mass-market car. What he said, and I quote: "Model S is already MORE mass-market than Bolt will be for some time to come."

 

[Johan]

The Model S simply isn't a mass-market car, the ATP for new cars is around $30k. Even the Model3 will be upper mass-market at $35-50k. Otherwise, you have to redefine what a mass-market car is.

That's wierd, yesterday you said the main reason Tesla is in for a world of hurt is that Model 3 will have fierce competition in the mass market segment, and that there is little money to be made in the mass market segment. Today you're saying the Model 3 won't be mass market but "upper mass-market" which is what those of us who have been paying attention in class have been saying all along.

 

[scaesare]

Tesla has proven that BEVs can be superior to ICE cars in every way except two (at this time): the price and energy density in the battery pack/range. Both of these will improve with time and in the meantime Tesla has a work around that works well enough (superchargers). Unless there is some kind of massive breakthrough in battery chemistry that nobody thinks possible at this time, energy density in battery packs will never reach the same point as gasoline (which has a staggering energy density), but it will definitely get better over time.

I'd add refueling/recharging time to that list.

 

[Krugerrand]

That's wierd, yesterday you said the main reason Tesla is in for a world of hurt is that Model 3 will have fierce competition in the mass market segment, and that there is little money to be made in the mass market segment. Today you're saying the Model 3 won't be mass market but "upper mass-market" which is what those of us who have been paying attention in class have been saying all along.

I missed that. Another goal post move by tftf.