Tesla BEV Competition Developments

[Ugliest1]

Considering that the Model 3 is not available in Europe and Asia until 2019 and that the Model Y is years away the list for 2018-2020 is important.

These competitors will eat mind- and marketshare from Tesla, and there will be additional high-speed charging networks (IONITY in Europe, Electrify America / Canada....) in place when these EVs hit the market.

My list above wasn't complete by far, just a few car models from the top of my head. Here's for example a full list of planned Audi EVs:

e-tron SUV (2018, unveil in September in SF, coming to NA in H1 2019)
e-tron Sportback (2019)
e-tron GT (2020, small volume)
e-tron compact SUV or sedan (2020)
e-tron SAV (2020)

Now you can laugh and say that Audi kept post-poning its EVs (except for the A3 PHEV), but the list above is near production, not just concepts that won't make it to market.

That's a good list of Audi e-trons; I don't want to laugh -- I want to cry that they weren't available years ago. You must have seen a bunch of new Powerpoint slides; Audi has been able to produce slides since 2013 at least.

Although you have definitely been told this before in the previous SIX YEARS (thx @Krugerrand) your mind-eating lists ignore:
- just HOW MANY of these cars will be actually produced annually by all these carmakers. The iPace published number is 20,000; Hyundai had to stop producing the ioniq a few months ago because they don't have the batteries, and most other brands IIRC are targeting 20,000-40,000 annually. The iPace annual output is about how many Model 3's Tesla will make in a month.
- those high-speed charging networks don't exist, and if they do get going they won't be delivering 135-150kW like Tesla does (VW's market info says 100kW, but actual use by real people says usually less than half that, from what I've read). Porsche might actually get their 800V system running, who knows (and who knows when), but it's highly doubtful Porsche will build and deliver a network like the Superchargers, with range and reach across two continents. With Porsche's 800V next 5 years it'll be a little like owning a fuel cell vehicle in LA (oh, wait... oops).
- most of the market share lost on purchased Audi, Porsche, etc EVs will be against their own ICE variants, so that will kill profits for those companies for years.

That's a pretty good list of things that are promised for the next couple years. Some of them will probably even arrive on time, and a few might turn out to be everything people are hoping for based on the hype.

And to add to this post and subtract from the "eating mind- and market-share" hope(less) from @tftf, the market is big enough for ALL those cars, and it won't hurt Tesla sales in the least -- in fact it will help them as EVs generally become more mainstream in the public's consciousness. Additionally, assuming @tftf is right about all those cars actually appearing and being bought... FINALLY THE SLOWPOKES ARE HELPING TO ADVANCE TESLA'S MISSION.

Lastly, to be clear, I believe that when these other carmakers' EVs actually do arrive, a lot/most/all of them actually will be sold because they'll perform better than their respective ICE variant. The companies are just being awfully slow to get them out, and those sales won't slow Tesla demand down at all.

All of what I've written above is not new and I didn't say it first -- far smarter people than I on this board have analyzed these things for years and I'm just repeating some. However, at least I try to listen. Looks like someone else, doesn't (#1996 - SIX YEARS!!!!).

 

[ggr]

The iPace published number is 20,000; Hyundai had to stop producing the ioniq a few months ago because they don't have the batteries, and most other brands IIRC are targeting 20,000-40,000 annually. The iPace annual output is about how many Model 3's Tesla will make in a month.

One wrinkle I think many people haven't thought of... all those manufacturers have approached just a couple of cell manufacturers, and they've all said "We think we can sell 20,000 of these per year". Say LG has 5 such companies. LG might decide that it's sensible to scale up to make 60,000 cars worth of cells per year until the market is validated. Everyone is happy, until the sales actually eventuate, and now either:
a) all those manufacturers only get 12,000 car's worth, or
b) LG decides that they like GM but hate Audi, or holds an auction, or ...

This exact situation happened to Qualcomm some years ago, when their main foundry TSMC didn't believe Qualcomm's projections for Android phones, and only manufactured half as many chipsets as were ordered, instead giving the capacity to other fabless chip manufacturers (not just for cellphones).

 

[neroden]

One wrinkle I think many people haven't thought of... all those manufacturers have approached just a couple of cell manufacturers, and they've all said "We think we can sell 20,000 of these per year". Say LG has 5 such companies. LG might decide that it's sensible to scale up to make 60,000 cars worth of cells per year until the market is validated. Everyone is happy, until the sales actually eventuate, and now either:
a) all those manufacturers only get 12,000 car's worth, or
b) LG decides that they like GM but hate Audi, or holds an auction, or ...

This exact situation happened to Qualcomm some years ago, when their main foundry TSMC didn't believe Qualcomm's projections for Android phones, and only manufactured half as many chipsets as were ordered, instead giving the capacity to other fabless chip manufacturers (not just for cellphones).

GGR, I think that's already happening. LG's expansion is trailing the number of announced carmaker orders from LG, substantially.

CATL is clearly trying to meet everyone's demand... but they are having trouble expanding fast enough.

 

[scaesare]

One wrinkle I think many people haven't thought of... all those manufacturers have approached just a couple of cell manufacturers, and they've all said "We think we can sell 20,000 of these per year". Say LG has 5 such companies. LG might decide that it's sensible to scale up to make 60,000 cars worth of cells per year until the market is validated. Everyone is happy, until the sales actually eventuate, and now either:
a) all those manufacturers only get 12,000 car's worth, or
b) LG decides that they like GM but hate Audi, or holds an auction, or ...

This exact situation happened to Qualcomm some years ago, when their main foundry TSMC didn't believe Qualcomm's projections for Android phones, and only manufactured half as many chipsets as were ordered, instead giving the capacity to other fabless chip manufacturers (not just for cellphones).

I was going to post similar. There are a few other potential caveats with this "single supplier" issue as well:

• Even if volume is "nearly" sufficient for all customers, you may have to wait your place in line
• Given the significant number of delayed model intros, attempting to forecast/ramp for the supplier may be difficult
• Risk with "all your eggs in one basket" for a critical item you have no control over and for whom there may not be another supplier capable of delivering

 

[Bullish_Bear]

Hi,friends, any idea if Jaguar i-pace would be a real threat to tesla financially? I read some posts for the car itself, and impression is that m3 is way better (but you know, forum bias maybe). Any idea about the influence to stock price? Thanks!

 

[Motor Mouth]

Hi,friends, any idea if Jaguar i-pace would be a real threat to tesla financially? I read some posts for the car itself, and impression is that m3 is way better (but you know, forum bias maybe). Any idea about the influence to stock price? Thanks!

Base price of an i-pace is $69,500. Probably can't get one IRL for less than $75K, which sounds like competition in the S and X market, not 3. If it's a good car, in every likelihood it will steal sales from BMW, MB and Lexus as much or more than from Tesla. it might even push the door open further on EV production in general. It's the old rising tide situation. Successful EVs from other manufacturers are likely to help the EV market in general. Fostering just this kind of competition is part of Tesla's mission.

 

[Esme Es Mejor]

any idea if Jaguar i-pace would be a real threat to tesla financially?

Yes, it is no threat whatsoever.

It’s small volume production means it isn’t a big threat to anyone. It is a small threat to ICE makers, though. People who would never even consider test-driving a Tesla will try out the I-Pace. They may not actually get one because, again, small volume. But it will open their eyes to how much better EVs are.

 

[CorneliusXX]

Hi,friends, any idea if Jaguar i-pace would be a real threat to tesla financially? I read some posts for the car itself, and impression is that m3 is way better (but you know, forum bias maybe). Any idea about the influence to stock price? Thanks!

M3 is better and cheaper. Also, Jag don't have enough batteries to produce in sufficient volume to dent demand for M3.

 

[oneday]

Hi,friends, any idea if Jaguar i-pace would be a real threat to tesla financially? I read some posts for the car itself, and impression is that m3 is way better (but you know, forum bias maybe). Any idea about the influence to stock price? Thanks!

No it won’t be a threat to Tesla. It will steal sales from Jaguar ICE cars primarily. And it’s going to be late and not made in volume levels that would have any effect on Tesla.

 

[dc_h]

Hi,friends, any idea if Jaguar i-pace would be a real threat to tesla financially? I read some posts for the car itself, and impression is that m3 is way better (but you know, forum bias maybe). Any idea about the influence to stock price? Thanks!

Tesla will make more model 3’s in August than jag makes all year. Tesla will make money on the 3 and jag will lose money on the Ipace. 3 has almost 50% more range and a charging network. Tesla has the industry leading driver assist / self driving features you can buy as a consumer.
Not a risk to Tesla. More EV marketing assistant

 

[RobStark]

Waymo has ordered 20k I-Pace.

I don't know how Jaguar will divide allocation between Waymo and everyone else.

But Waymo just ordered the first year Jaguar I Pace production.

 

[Cosmacelf]

Hi,friends, any idea if Jaguar i-pace would be a real threat to tesla financially? I read some posts for the car itself, and impression is that m3 is way better (but you know, forum bias maybe). Any idea about the influence to stock price? Thanks!

Unless they plan on producing hundreds of thousands a year, then no, no impact on Tesla. I read somewhere that Porsche Taycan (formally mission E) will have 20,000 per year. Jaguar won’t be much more. Unless someone steps up to making an EV selling at real scale, none of them will impact Tesla.

 

[RobStark]

I read somewhere that Porsche Taycan (formally mission E) will have 20,000 per year. Unless someone steps up to making an EV selling at real scale, none of them will impact Tesla.

If Porsche makes 20k Taycan a year then that is significant.

Because Tesla makes ~50k Model S per year.

40% production rate/capacity of comparable Tesla is significant IMO.

 

[Off Shore]

Hi,friends, any idea if Jaguar i-pace would be a real threat to tesla financially? I read some posts for the car itself, and impression is that m3 is way better (but you know, forum bias maybe). Any idea about the influence to stock price? Thanks!

Oh, great! Here comes the next hit to the SNR. Tell you what, after 20 or so of you explain to our new member how things are, watch what happens next.

 

[MP3Mike]

Waymo has ordered 20k I-Pace.

I don't know how Jaguar will divide allocation between Waymo and everyone else.

But Waymo just ordered the first year Jaguar I Pace production.

First, it is up to 20k I-Paces, and that order is over three years. So it is a maximum of 33% off the planned production. And I don't know if it starts this year or next year.

 

[Words of HABIT]

If Porsche makes 20k Taycan a year then that is significant.

Because Tesla makes ~50k Model S per year.

40% production rate/capacity of comparable Tesla is significant IMO.

Taycan not expected production until end of '19, most likely would not hit 20,000 annual production until '21. By then after with MS refresh I see MS at +75,000 annum production, with Taycan helping increase all EVs including Tesla. This is not a net sum game we are playing. The faster other auto manufacturers electrify their products the better it is for all EVs including and especially Tesla as the forerunner, without question. with 100 million new cars produced annually worldwide we all can't get their fast enough.
Porsche Taycan 2019: specs, price and release

 

[RobStark]

Taycan not expected production until end of '19, most likely would not hit 20,000 annual production until '21. By then after with MS refresh I see MS at +75,000 annum production, with Taycan helping increase all EVs including Tesla. This is not a net sum game we are playing. The faster other auto manufacturers electrify their products the better it is for all EVs including and especially Tesla as the forerunner, without question. with 100 million new cars produced annually worldwide we all can't get their fast enough.
Porsche Taycan 2019: specs, price and release

I did not imply it was a sum game.

I see Taycan taking mostly Panamera sales.

Followed by 6 Series,CLS, and Audi A7.

At least for a while, I think Taycan will sell to people that for whatever reasons will not seriously consider a Model S.

And I think Taycan ASP will be much higher than Model S but Model S is the most comparable vehicle.

I hope Tesla sees a steady state 75k Model S per year and invest in that production capacity for Model S 2.0 but that is super speculative.

 

[Cosmacelf]

If Porsche makes 20k Taycan a year then that is significant.

Because Tesla makes ~50k Model S per year.

40% production rate/capacity of comparable Tesla is significant IMO.

I suspect that the market for that price point EV will grow and it won’t affect Model S sales. Even if there is, then all Tesla needs to do is to divert more manufacturing resources away from Model S to Model 3.

 

[elasalle]

Hi,friends, any idea if Jaguar i-pace would be a real threat to tesla financially? I read some posts for the car itself, and impression is that m3 is way better (but you know, forum bias maybe). Any idea about the influence to stock price? Thanks!

Not the right question to ask a "biased" forum .. have you tried SA

 

[CorneliusXX]

Oh, great! Here comes the next hit to the SNR. Tell you what, after 20 or so of you explain to our new member how things are, watch what happens next.

yeah, that name gives 90% chance of CuriousSunbird v2.