Tesla BEV Competition Developments

[green1]

When I read this, I'm thinking this looks more like a Google vs. Baidu kind of thing. What would be really interesting to learn is where the actual car (e.g. Foxconn??) in the Baidu development is coming from: With the most recent policy changes in China, I'm waiting to hear who is going to provide electric cars to China and if these will be a China-only car maker or if they consider exports...

Highly unlikely to export in the near future for several reasons, the biggest being that the regulatory requirements for vehicles in most export destinations would be extremely different from what is needed in china, and also because most consumers have a perception of quality issues (ignoring the fact that most of their stuff is already manufactured there)

 

[jerry33]

also because most consumers have a perception of quality issues (ignoring the fact that most of their stuff is already manufactured there)

Which is why they have that perception because most of the stuff you buy is junk

 

[RobStark]

That's true, but the barriers to exit are even higher. We'll see how many existing manufacturers will be able to make the transition from ICE to electric. My prediction is that half of them will disappear. Some will go bankrupt, and others will be absorbed by the winners.

Consolidation in the auto industry has been happening for 100 years despite several nations trying to prevent it by creating national champion(s).

There are only boutique brands owned by the British, Swedes, and Spaniards that used to have several auto companies.


Peugeot Citroen is circling the toilet bowl.

Fiat got a reprieve with the US Government giving them Chrysler.

These two losers are now discussing a merger.

Subaru is increasingly becoming a subsidiary of Toyota.

Suzuki and Isuzu fled the US market. Isuzu now exiting the car industry becoming a diesel engine and heavy duty commercial truck maker.

 

[The Blue Owl]

The potential of combining home energy storage with electric vehicles is not lost on rivals. Audi announced a program combining SunPower PV systems with Bosch EV chargers, meant for Audi plug-in hybrid owners:

Audi of America (Herndon, Va.) on August 5th, 2014 announced the launch of “Audi energy”, a comprehensive program designed to help improve the electric vehicle (EV) ownership experience and reduce the carbon footprint that comes with vehicle production, distribution and driving.

Someone on this board said before that Audi is the leader in EV press releases, which they probably are. Still, this announcement is interesting, especially in conjunction with another article on the same site that says that the share of renewables in electricity in Germany exceeds 30% (45 terawatt hours in Jan to June 2014).

 

[TD1]

World premiere of the Mercedes-Benz F 015 Luxury in Motion at the CES - YouTube

Very interesting concept

Zetssche notes:
-The car will be on an electric skateboard (like tesla)
-Cars in general will have a new image, as the third lving space, next to home and office

I like the second point, because that would encourage personal vehicle ownership.
I was worried that the Car market would shrink with SelfDriving Fleets.

But I guess the premium market will look something like that.

- - - Updated - - -

Haha! Yeah, they just said it in the CES show as well. Some 5600 global patents. Funny, I wonder where they got that idea from?

It needs to point out that they explicitly stated that the Fuel Cell Vehicle patents are only royalty free until 2020, from there on the companies would have to pay.
So I think its just marketing BS, because that changes nothing, even if a company would start to develop a FCV today, to bring it to the market ASAP, bestcase would be 2018, which would leave 2 years of royalty free production.
That wont change one single roadmap of the big manufacturers.


Only their Fuel Cell Station patents are free indefinitely.

 

[Causalien]

World premiere of the Mercedes-Benz F 015 Luxury in Motion at the CES - YouTube

Very interesting concept

Zetssche notes:
-The car will be on an electric skateboard (like tesla)
-Cars in general will have a new image, as the third lving space, next to home and office

I like the second point, because that would encourage personal vehicle ownership.
I was worried that the Car market would shrink with SelfDriving Fleets.

But I guess the premium market will look something like that.

- - - Updated - - -



It needs to point out that they explicitly stated that the Fuel Cell Vehicle patents are only royalty free until 2020, from there on the companies would have to pay.
So I think its just marketing BS, because that changes nothing, even if a company would start to develop a FCV today, to bring it to the market ASAP, bestcase would be 2018, which would leave 2 years of royalty free production.
That wont change one single roadmap of the big manufacturers.


Only their Fuel Cell Station patents are free indefinitely.

Cars will replace houses for most people.

 

[mejojo]

Cars will replace houses for most people.

Interesting idea.....RVing takes on a whole new light if these large vehicles did not cost 30-50c/mile to move.

Imagine a Tesla RV with 200-400KWH battery (plenty of room for the battery) rolling down the highway, getting free fuel on the supercharger network...perhaps stations on the KOA network.

Kind of changes touring when it doesn't cost a ton for fuel.

 

[Causalien]

No need for RV. Just turn the seat into a bed. Sleep while the car is driving through the highway at night and charges itself. Then wakeup at yor favorite restaurant or community kitchen and public bath. Public bath might make a comeback.

Perfect for a single young adult without much money.

 

[Robert.Boston]

World premiere of the Mercedes-Benz F 015 Luxury in Motion at the CES - YouTube

Very interesting concept

Zetssche notes:
-The car will be on an electric skateboard (like tesla)
-Cars in general will have a new image, as the third lving space, next to home and office

I like the second point, because that would encourage personal vehicle ownership.
I was worried that the Car market would shrink with SelfDriving Fleets.

But I guess the premium market will look something like that.

Even more remarkable is how little Zetssche says about the vehicle dynamics. That may reflect the audience; CES is more interested in human interfaces than drivetrains and suspensions, but it's unusual to hear an automotive executive talk about a new car almost without reference to the drivetrain.

 

[SteveG3]

Even more remarkable is how little Zetssche says about the vehicle dynamics. That may reflect the audience; CES is more interested in human interfaces than drivetrains and suspensions, but it's unusual to hear an automotive executive talk about a new car almost without reference to the drivetrain.

according to this one article, the concept would primarily use a fuel cell for drivetrain (with a supplemental battery). on stage Zetssche only mentioned a battery. just one article, so I'd take it with a sizable grain of salt.

Mercedes-Benz's F015 concept is a self-driving, hydrogen-powered living room | PCWorld

 

[Larry93428]

Are Supercharger canopies RV compatible?
One crunching into the overhead makes an unhappy image. Ugh.
Otherwise, there may be a market for EV RVs. Maybe converted BYD busses?
~Larry

 

[The Blue Owl]

I'll put this here, even though it's not about an EV, but about Audi's autopilot technology. Impressive.

I Saw the Future and it's Delightfully Dull

 

[LargeHamCollider]

The Chevrolet Bolt Will Be A 200-Mile Electric Tesla Fighter For $30,000

As someone who is long TSLA this has me worried a bit, GM could dump these on the market at cost or below. Though on a positive note...

1. GM doesn't have the battery supply (that we know of) to make more than 50,000 of these per year (and that's on the v. high side of guesses)
2. They don't state 200 mile EPA range, but rather "will be able to travel 200 miles" I suspect EPA range will be more like 160 miles.

 

[kenliles]

GM Bolt 'Rival to Tesla' 2017 $30-$35k 200mi.

GM Readies Electric Rival to Tesla - WSJ

 

[Raffy.Roma]

GM Bolt 'Rival to Tesla' 2017 $30-$35k 200mi.

GM Readies Electric Rival to Tesla - WSJ

It's only a concept car. GM has not experience with long distance range EV like Tesla.

In Italy we say: "tra il dire e il fare c'è di mezzo il mare"

translation: "there is an ocean between saying and making"

 

[32no]

GM Bolt 'Rival to Tesla' 2017 $30-$35k 200mi.

GM Readies Electric Rival to Tesla - WSJ

Don't expect a compelling electric car. Despite the fact that this car will be sold in all 50 states, this will still be a compliance car that is meant to minimize GM's purchases of credits. This is made clear by the fact that GM has no plans to sell this car in volume (especially since the car would probably be sold at a loss). This car poses little to no threat to Tesla.

The pack for GM’s new vehicle could be built in LG Chem’s Holland, Mich., plant, where the Volt batteries currently are made by the same supplier. That plant would have a capacity to build about 60,000 Volt battery packs, or 20,000 of the larger packs for a new EV, or a mixture of the two.

 

[Johan]

Don't expect a compelling electric car. Despite the fact that this car will be sold in all 50 states, this will still be a compliance car that is meant to minimize GM's purchases of credits. This is made clear by the fact that GM has no plans to sell this car in volume (especially since the car would probably be sold at a loss). This car poses little to no threat to Tesla.

I posted more or less the same in the Bolt thread just now. What this signals though is interesting: Someone inside of GM management has understood that BEVs are the future, they see how far behind they are, they decide to sell the Bolt at a big loss just to try and slow Tesla down and hope to close the gap in the coming years.

 

[kenliles]

I posted more or less the same in the Bolt thread just now. What this signals though is interesting: Someone inside of GM management has understood that BEVs are the future, they see how far behind they are, they decide to sell the Bolt at a big loss just to try and slow Tesla down and hope to close the gap in the coming years.

That's the way I saw it. At some point the EV market has to be 'certified' by the ICE-makers. This is an important internal taking of step 2 in that process. They'll be at a loss; but as such, importantly subsidized by ICE profits. I'm not clear on how that makes it 'un-compelling' however, hence the 'slowing down' of Tesla. In 2017, 60,000 volume - isn't that comparative to Mod3 expected?

 

[Johan]

That's the way I saw it. At some point the EV market has to be 'certified' by the ICE-makers. This is an important internal taking of step 2 in that process. They'll be at a loss; but as such, importantly subsidized by ICE profits. I'm not clear on how that makes it 'un-compelling' however, hence the 'slowing down' of Tesla. In 2017, 60,000 volume - isn't that comparative to Mod3 expected?

Well subsidized by ICE-profits only in the transition period that has to be survived. Maybe not so much slowing down Tesla as trying to catch up themselves and have some kind of first mover advantage against the other giants.

 

[vgrinshpun]

That's the way I saw it. At some point the EV market has to be 'certified' by the ICE-makers. This is an important internal taking of step 2 in that process. They'll be at a loss; but as such, importantly subsidized by ICE profits. I'm not clear on how that makes it 'un-compelling' however, hence the 'slowing down' of Tesla. In 2017, 60,000 volume - isn't that comparative to Mod3 expected?

The WSJ article indicated that the battery factory slated to provide batteries for Volts and Bolts can serve either 60K Volts or 20K Bolts, or a mixture of the two. So if they continue to sell about 20K of Volts, that would leave enough capacity to sell about 40/3=13.3K of Bolts.