He going to make a stand on these, and at minimum gut the bill in a way that will make him a hero to the other party, and then he will create some hyped drama, probably reaction to something one of the further-left of his party says about him, and make a big show of leaving the party.??? I’ve never seen a paywall in front of this and can access it from personal and work. So not sure.
In short, they see no chance Manchin folds on the cost and inflation. He’s gone so far to mention leaving the Democratic Party - the thinking is this bill is currently so expensive and left leaning he will surely lose the next election if he signs off. At this point he’s gone too far to agree.
Then he would be an absolutely lock for reelection from the GOP.,.. and given trend lines among voters and how close his last election bid was, highly unlikely no matter what he does with BBB to be reelected as a Demo.
The tricky part is he hasn’t really taken a shot at the core EV credits, just the union parts, and has taken shots at very specific other parts of the bill. SO even if the scenario above plays out he could leave a husk of BBB that includes the basic $7,500 or $8000 credits. Then the question becomes whether the left will be mad enough at him to sink it and come back with just small parts of the bill individually.
But it’s not happening by Jan 1., none of it, and then it becomes a question of when in 2022 your EDD shows and whether any vestige of credits is modified to be in effect only after date it is approved... So complicated!