Tesla Inventory Discounts after Major Product Upgrade

[ZenMan]

I sold off my 2013 Model S and am contemplating selling my AP 1.0 70D. My hypothesis is that Tesla will announce some significant upgrades to the Model S and Model X vehicles in order to make them more compelling once the Model 3 is revealed. I have been watching inventory vehicles and they are disappearing pretty quickly, but I haven't heard of aggressive discounting on the part of Tesla.

So my question is to any of you who were watching inventory vehicles closely in the past, what does Tesla do when a significant new feature is released. I know going from AP 1.0 to 2.0 there were significant discounts on inventory vehicles, but were the discounts uniform across the product portfolio? Were 75Ds discounted by a similar percentage as 90/100D's?

I'd like to sell my AP 1.0 70D now in the hope I could get a AP 2.0 75D or 90D at a $8k to $10K discount once Tesla announces a major revamp to the product in June/July. I'm going to spend two months in Portugal so I won't need a car until we come back in August and I was hoping I could snap a deal on an inventory vehicle then.

Any opinions on this strategy?

 

[hmmm]

Let me know if you can figure out Tesla's release calendar, I would pay good money for it!

My experience: I picked up my car as an inv car last August and while this was a one time thing wrt how re. how "eager" they were to move inv cars, they tend to discount 90s and 100s (and Ps in particular) a lot more %-wise than the "cheaper" cars. I've been monitoring ev-cpo.com and this is pretty much a constant.

The other significant unknown is how tightly they will control the release of the inventories to keep people on their toes timing-wise...they played an interesting game last summer, pretty much with on a daily basis: massive dump of cars one day, nothing for a week, then 3 dumps in 2 days, then nothing for a while etc etc.

Number-wise, $10k off is in fact doable now...you could even use my referral link, ahem...

The 90D below is discounted $9.2k
Model S 90D 5YJSA1E21HF179250 | Tesla

This 75D is discounted $9.6k
Model S 75D 5YJSA1E2XHF186553 | Tesla

So it they've this kind of discount in place now, you would *think* that they would have something similar (better?) down the road, but then again, this is Tesla we're talking about here.

Good luck!

 

[bonaire]

My data shows that a good number of inventory cars are "preparing" to come to market based on the Vin # issuances and the not-yet listed vins (bulk in the ranges 189xxx-193xxx, with 194xxx growing).

 

[ZenMan]

My data shows that a good number of inventory cars are "preparing" to come to market based on the Vin # issuances and the not-yet listed vins (bulk in the ranges 189xxx-193xxx, with 194xxx growing).

Thank you. So it this a typical end of quarter type of inventory dump, or are these inventory builds unpredictable?

 

[bonaire]

Thank you. So it this a typical end of quarter type of inventory dump, or are these inventory builds unpredictable?

Seems to come in waves. Last year, they seemed to prepare inventory ahead of both the fascia change to the new look and the summer introduction of new model features (like building a LOT of classic fascia P90DL cars for inventory in Q2 and discounting by $30k or so in September - the store near me had about 15 just sitting collecting dust for a while in late spring).

 

[zer0cool]

You really should have sold your 70D a month ago before re-pricing.

But anyways, I find Tesla's inventory discounts to be generally not that attractive. Certain discounts appear large only because those particularly cars are equipped with too many options... I mean of course it's a matter of personal opinion. I find many Tesla options pretty much worthless and most of them are worthless on resale. Unless a just rightly optioned car is highly discounted (very unlikely to happen and happen to be seen by me), I just don't see the attractiveness of inventory discounts...

Or of course the situation Bonaire mentioned above sound like really good deals, particularly to lease, since residual is calculated based on original MSRP. You are unlikely to see that on 75's however since base price is much lower. Maybe some will come up on the 90's? Hard to know.

 

[BrettS]

Honestly, I would be a bit surprised if we see any major (or minor, really) changes on the model S and X in the next few months. They just made some changes and revamped the pricing structure and it doesn't seem likely that any additional changes would be made only a few months later. Additionally, I suspect that they are running pretty much flat out to get ready to ramp up production on the model 3. I don't think they have a lot of resources to dedicate to the Model S and X right now.

 

[zer0cool]

Thought Elon mentioned new gen battery rollout in the S and X in 2H 2017. That's a much more major change compared to the facelift and AP2.

 

[Snowstorm]

Thought Elon mentioned new gen battery rollout in the S and X in 2H 2017. That's a much more major change compared to the facelift and AP2.

Where did you hear about that?

 

[bonaire]

Thought Elon mentioned new gen battery rollout in the S and X in 2H 2017. That's a much more major change compared to the facelift and AP2.

Facelift plus AP 2.0 is substantial. If Next-gen batteries are simply the NCA chemistry put into the 2170 battery cell, the major benefit there is it allows NAFTA trade capability for Canada when bringing N. American content above a certain point and it can lower import tariffs into Canada. I don't see a new battery being "more of an upgrade" than Facelift + AP 2.0 - those are substantial draw (new look, new cool AP features) versus something you cannot see and is just the basis of the energy.

Jeff Dahn recently announced improvements to make "longer lasting" NMC batteries - with 95% capacity after something like 1200 cycles. That is quite nice and could allow 500,000+ mile lifetime batteries or more. Tesla has not announced using NMC chemistries in cars, yet. It is also anti-selling upgrades because you know the car will last say half million miles. Many may trade-in their cars now before 100k miles to keep being under warranty. Today, used-vehicle buyers face the reality of possibly having to pay for their own main pack replacement after the 8-year warranty expires should the batteries start to fail. If the packs were these "better" NMC cells, then worries would be lifted after the magic 200,000 mile point. Will be nice to see cars with actual 500k+ mile drivetrain capability some day.

Tesla battery researcher unveils new chemistry to increase lifecycle at high voltage

What a "next gen" battery probably will mean is 2170 cells arranged in a way to get to 110 kWh, possibly. However, the need for such large payloads of batteries is debatable.

 

[Paladin732]

It really depends. The undriven inventory cars have pretty much no discount at all.

 

[xborg]

Have little bit patience. I strongly believe you'll find the discount you want soon. They've already started huge discount in some countries.

 

[electracity]

Have little bit patience. I strongly believe you'll find the discount you want soon. They've already started huge discount in some countries.

Musk is certainly signaling concern about demand due to the model 3 release. To me this signals a lack of near term demand drivers except for price. Good non-price demand drivers would be an impressive jump in AP2 capability, or an interior refresh with some new tech.

 

[St Charles]

I was able to pick up an Inventory P90DL for 10% off right as the front end refresh hit the stores. The car had a few miles on it but everything checked out. I just refer to those miles as an extended quality check before delivery.

 

[Snowstorm]

Musk is certainly signaling concern about demand due to the model 3 release. To me this signals a lack of near term demand drivers except for price. Good non-price demand drivers would be an impressive jump in AP2 capability, or an interior refresh with some new tech.

Ap2 capability would not boost demand on S vs 3 as the 3 is expected to have the same. We need one of the following:
1 - new feature or tech exclusive to S (electro dim glass, interior upgrade etc...)
2 - price drop for the S, or inclusion of most options without charge
3 - the 3 being much more barebones than expected

As of right now, the expected price difference is too great.

 

[Jabbahop]

Pure speculation but other things that have been discussed in past.
- faster super charging (if it requires changes to the car)
- pack built with new battery cells - more range? less weight? Lower cost? Better charge/discharge performance?

Musk has said that the S/X will continue to be the leaders in luxury, range, and performance over M3 - maybe rather than M3 being less than expected, S/X updates improve.

 

[dieicher]

Please tell me what the "discount" column is for in the listing, and how it is used to come up with the price I need to pay for any given car.
thanks