Tesla Model Y in Australia

[DrTe$la]

Usual small market priorities. Put simply Tesla can't supply everyone and they've got a 3+ month waiting list in the US, which is also losing them advantage.

Interesting seeing the OutofSpec Motoring review of the KiaEV6.

Considering solar in Australia and that the country is a wealthy one, one might think that it would be good to position oneself early. Have you ever been to LA? The number of Teslas on the road is insane. All models available.

Yes, other brands will eventually offer more for less

 

[aegidius]

The brand loyalty comments go both ways, though. I won't be buying anything other than Tesla anytime soon, when other premium branded EV's cost more, deliver less, and are not materially better in build quality. I'm not starry eyed though, Tesla has had a huge head start and will not give up easily, but it is not set in stone. Others will eventually catch up. They will be starting from scratch in the SUV space with savvy competition (unlike before) and will be offering the wrong vehicle (Cybertruck) in many markets. If they don't bring out a smaller ute they will lose a large market in EU and here.

 

[Leeroy]

You’re probably right about losing to Europe (and a lesser extent aus) but being an American company appealing to American market do they care? F-150 comes to mind, America’s best selling pickup since forever. I haven’t seen a new RHD model in ages.

Annoyingly we are too far away, with a small market, playing hostile politics with EV’s and the steering wheel on the wrong side.

 

[Chuq]

Don't forget, this same argument could be made against Tesla coming to Australia at all in the first place. They first made deliveries in 2014, I think, with showrooms/service centres/superchargers being set up in 2015. That was a hell of a gamble at the time, especially given the price of the vehicles and the amount of luxury car tax they attracted.

It's reasonable to assume it took them many years for their Australian operations to become profitable. They could have just not come here at all and it wouldn't have hurt the company overall.

 

[meloccom]

Don't forget, this same argument could be made against Tesla coming to Australia at all in the first place. They first made deliveries in 2014, I think, with showrooms/service centres/superchargers being set up in 2015. That was a hell of a gamble at the time, especially given the price of the vehicles and the amount of luxury car tax they attracted.

It's reasonable to assume it took them many years for their Australian operations to become profitable. They could have just not come here at all and it wouldn't have hurt the company overall.

As unofficial Tesla Australia historian, I can tell you that Tesla officially launched in Australia on December 9, 2014 with a launch party at Star City Casino in Pyrmont. They had installed a 4 bay Supercharger in the Valet parking section of the Star City car park where they had been offering test drives for some months prior. The first Signature Model S deliveries occurred at the launch event In December 9 and the first standard production cars were delivered at the St Leonard’s Showroom and service centre on December 29, 2014.
At the time these we’re the only locations of Superchargers in Australia and probably the Southern Hemisphere.
To some degree we owe Simon Hackett a degree of gratitude as I believe he was influential in convincing Elon / Tesla to come to Australia along with about 20 other original Roadster owners who bought cars despite no existing charging network and the only service centre being a tiny rented commercial space somewhere in Mascot to service the Roadster fleet.
In those early days Tesla responded to the enthusiastic early adopters as they had little else to go on other than population and size of the economy as there was no way to know of sales levels of a new and unproven car technology. Countries like Israel, Singapore and South Africa missed out completely and are only now just receiving or about to receive their first official deliveries.
It has been stunning and fascinating to watch how the world has changed in the intervening years, no one could have predicted the pace of change to EVs that we are now seeing despite it being the stated objective of Tesla. Roadster, Model S and Model X changed people’s minds Model 3 changed the world. There is value in that history.

 

[Stratman]

We certainly do have Elon to thank for forcing BIG ICE to come to the EV development party else they would still be just ICEing the same old cake. Its hard to know when the Y will drop downunder with plenty of bigger markets to service notwithstanding supply chain issues and strong demand to compound delays.

 

[aegidius]

So glad they started with a proper car instead of an SUV. (ducks for cover)

 

[moa999]

along with about 20 other original Roadster owners who bought cars despite no existing charging network and the only service centre being a tiny rented commercial space somewhere in Mascot to service the Roadster fleet.

The Roadsters were AC only though?

Did the AU Roadsters have the Tesla plug, or a Type2/Mennekes?

 

[positiv]

Interesting seeing the OutofSpec Motoring review of the KiaEV6.

It's including things like Auto Lane Change, and feed from blinker cams when you activate signal on display as part of the default package.
So some of Teslas tech advantages are being exceeded by competitors.

I feel like Tesla is slowly falling behind in tech since their sensor package was released (2016-2017). For comparison, even Mitsubishi has rear cross traffic alert, blind sport warning, lane change assist, rear cross traffic alert and 360 cam on their Triton ute.

 

[Leeroy]

Kinda standard with all tech though isn’t it? Someone invents, Sandy Munro pulls apart and sells that tech for a mammoth profit, then the others catch up from reverse engineering.
Who was being realistic about battery beforehand really? Maybe Toyota but they have really tried to hedge their bets with hybrid tech and perhaps Nissan with the leaf. Now Mercedes, Volvo, Ford et el.

 

[meloccom]

The Roadsters were AC only though?

Did the AU Roadsters have the Tesla plug, or a Type2/Mennekes?

The original Tesla Roadster predated almost all charging port standards and has a unique port all to itself regardless of the market it sold into.
They do not have any DC quick charging facility but some enterprising people have offered third party CHADEMO compatible upgrades.

 

[GrimRe]

The main problem is that now that so many companies are onboard BEV and rushing through to production means that Tesla's advantage is fading rapidly.

Most OEMs are severely impacted by chip shortages and soon battery shortages. There is also the annoying little problem of pouch cells being incredibly dangerous (see GM recall disaster) which limits options for batteries even further. By and large, OEMs are purposely conflating BEV with "electrification" (i.e. hybrid). See Toyota "self charging EV" bullshit marketing campaign. OEMs are absolutely dire straights in order to re-organise to be able to produce the millions of pure battery EVs needed to satisfy the market so they are turning to a marketing strategy to convince people buying an ICE car with 1-10kWh battery pack is superior to an a BEV. Unfortunately this works. Especially as Tesla don't advertise. There is no competition in pure EV, the competition is against equivalent ICE. Hybrids are an annoying footnote in history.

The fact that people are quite brand loyal in the premium segment makes it difficult to change people's minds. Someone who has been buying BMW or Mercs will expect the perceived and possibly actual higher build quality from their favourite brand. SUVs make a huge segment of premium vehicles.

It won't matter when the wait time on an EQS or i4 is 3 months and it costs twice that of a Tesla Model Y while also being inferior. The majority of the market share is people who don't particularly care about brand loyalty. One test drive of a Model Y and you forget why you used to like BMWs, Audi or w/e. Die hard fans are such a small minority its not even meaningful.

Now if you've been driving BMW for 20+ years (like I have), you already know that BMW is on track to deliver. If not, a visit to your local distributor will enlighten you. Most will stay loyal to the brand because of build quality and other unmeasurable parameters. The same applies for Merc and Volvo.

Let me know if the BMW iX or Tesla Model Y is first to sell 1,000 units. Also compare price, range, efficiency, technology and let me know what is objectively a better product.

Now in my eyes, Tesla Model 3 should have come out with a hatchback. It practically is a hatch, but someone just didn't put in that bloody hatch. Poor choice. No wonder they need to get the 3s sold before the MY comes out if that statement is true. If it is, then it is in itself proof of the management and engineering mistake.

No actually not a poor choice. The Model 3 was a learning exercise before the true iPhone moment which is the Model Y. Aerodynamics, cost of batteries precluded a small hatchback and the price point (i.e. $40k AUD max) made it impossible. It was far smarter to compete in the luxury sedan market (BMW 3 series, C class, Audi A4 etc) and let the 2023 Tesla Compact take out the Supermini segment (VW Polo, Toyota Yaris etc)

Furthermore, without an SUV in multiple markets, Tesla is about to lose the race (read Australia).

I won't say the game is over, but if Q1 or Q2 2022 is the release date in Australia for MY, then the race of dominance is over.

Hilarious. Please let me know this time next year if Tesla have "lost" the Australian market for Model Y. The race isn't the "launch first". Shipping 500 units per quarter and selling at 2.5x the adjusted price is not winning. The Model Y will be sent over here in volume and be incredibly cost competitive when it launches.

I have made the mental change to go for EV. I have solar panels on my roof. I'm ready to abandon BMW for many reaaons. I've dropped the range anxiety if I can get actual 400Km out of the car. I'm ready for 2 Tesla Model Y cars. And the money is in the bank waiting.

But... where are my 2 Model Y? They are on their way to Germany with the steering wheel on the wrong side (!!)

I'm no auto expert, but I understand business. This is bad business for the future of Tesla in Australia.
Do I feel Australia is discriminated? Absolutely!
Do I feel that Tesla is making the wrong decision? Absolutely!

Good on you. Please understand just how small of a market AU is just how much demand there is the Model Y. The chip shortage and 4680 delays are not helping. However the Tesla ethos is to climb the slope of the global maxima, not local. If they started selling Model Y now, it may result in short term value but they need the production capacity sorted before opening new markets. Plus they still have a lot of Model 3s to sell.

Let's not go into the Cybertruck business. By the time Cybertruck comes to Australia, Ford and maybe Toyota and other new EV truck brands will be dominating the market. And this is in a country where people love 4WD with huge whips. Australia will again not be prioritized.

Overall, the only thing that comes to my mind is: "too little, too late"!

I very much doubt we'll see the Cybertruck in Australia in its current form. Probably a smaller variant in the second half of this decade.

 

[RareEarth]

If one was to play a game of "name the legacy car manufacturers that will be around in 15 years" I think not many would appear on the list in their current form. Either bankrupt or merged.
There are a couple of them that "got it" early enough, perhaps Hyundai / Kia and Volkswagon group.
The rest are like the good ship Fossil, they can see the iceberg ahead but are too big, fat and happy to turn quickly enough, weighed down by the Osbourne effect, hostile dealership networks ("where is the money in selling EVs?"), a massive manufacturing base / workforce totally geared to making ICE cars and disruption from nimble startups.

 

[RobDickinson]

There are a couple of them that "got it" early enough, perhaps Hyundai / Kia and Volkswagon group.

Its interesting that people talk about VW in this way.

Their plan is 50% BEV by 2030.

Their plan is still make ICE vehicles for half the world (South America, Africa etc). Indeed they are commissioning new ICE plants and talking about bio fuels right now.

Doing even this will be a massive effort they are currently struggling with as uptake of the ID cars is pretty weak.

They also have substantial debt.

I wish them well overall we need change and quickly but I dont see their future as is is a given

 

[RareEarth]

I dont see their future as is is a given

Hence the proviso "perhaps".

 

[Vostok]

There is no competition in pure EV, the competition is against equivalent ICE.

This is not true in Europe, where Tesla has only 15% of the BEV market. This is for many reasons - Teslas are expensive in Europe, Europe has a very strong preference for hatchbacks, Europe has a strong dislike of large vehicles (S/X struggle), people in Europe drive smaller distances on average (so really long BEV range is not as critical) and the traditional European brands have strong BEV offerings more to European tastes.

In Australia, Tesla has 60% of the BEV market in NSW (see my separate post). I suspect it would be similar in other states (if the data was made available).

In the USA, Tesla's market share of BEVs in 2020 was 75%.

In these two markets - huge countries where people are more likely to drive long distances - Tesla's superiority in having BEVs with 500km+ range becomes a market-dominating factor in purchase decisions.

 

[RobDickinson]

Competition in EU exists because of the co2 fines, all the main manufacturers are concentrating their electric efforts there.

Tesla doesnt have to. It also doesnt produce yet in EU so is subject to a 10% import duty most of the others are not.

In essence this means tesla is at a serious disadvantage as the co2 fines (worth ~8000 euro per car) put them at a disadvantage, other companies can choose to sell their EVs at a lower price and it still ends up saving them money.

 

[RobDickinson]

Tesla Model Y deliveries in Australia now not likely before early 2022, sources say

Tesla's Model Y may not make it to Australia until second quarter of 2022, sources tell The Driven and aspiring customers.

thedriven.io

"A source who has asked to remain unnamed but who has contacts with Tesla staff in Hong Kong and China has told The Driven that an Australian launch will be delayed until early in Q2, 2022 because demand for the Model Y is proving to be so high in China."

 

[Vostok]

Competition in EU exists because of the co2 fines, all the main manufacturers are concentrating their electric efforts there.

Tesla doesnt have to. It also doesnt produce yet in EU so is subject to a 10% import duty most of the others are not.

The original assertion was that there is no competition in pure EVs. That is clearly untrue in Europe.

It doesn’t matter why you think the competition is there… because that doesn’t change the fact that there is competition.

 

[GrimRe]

Tesla Model Y deliveries in Australia now not likely before early 2022, sources say

Tesla's Model Y may not make it to Australia until second quarter of 2022, sources tell The Driven and aspiring customers.

thedriven.io

"A source who has asked to remain unnamed but who has contacts with Tesla staff in Hong Kong and China has told The Driven that an Australian launch will be delayed until early in Q2, 2022 because demand for the Model Y is proving to be so high in China."

Most likely imo will be Q2 next year with deliveries very shortly thereafter (as to not Osborne the Model 3).

Hmm almost as if I am on to something...

This is not true in Europe, where Tesla has only 15% of the BEV market. This is for many reasons - Teslas are expensive in Europe, Europe has a very strong preference for hatchbacks, Europe has a strong dislike of large vehicles (S/X struggle), people in Europe drive smaller distances on average (so really long BEV range is not as critical) and the traditional European brands have strong BEV offerings more to European tastes.

In Australia, Tesla has 60% of the BEV market in NSW (see my separate post). I suspect it would be similar in other states (if the data was made available).

In the USA, Tesla's market share of BEVs in 2020 was 75%.

In these two markets - huge countries where people are more likely to drive long distances - Tesla's superiority in having BEVs with 500km+ range becomes a market-dominating factor in purchase decisions.

This only proves my point. Car buyers whether in EU or AU follow the same flow chart when deciding on what car to buy, it usually goes something like:

1) What size car do I want? (e.g. I have a small car spot so I need a hatchback) = 1/5 buyers want Model 3 size
2) What is my budget? (I can afford X dollars financed. 90% of new car sales are financed in the UK for example) = further 1/4 can afford Model 3
3) What is available to drive away this month? (I.e. my old car just died/is out of warranty and I need a new car ASAP) = further 1/2 can't wait

That leaves only 2.5% of buyers that would even entertain buying a Model 3 which was the only vehicle available in EU for an entire year. Model Y only recently started and probably changes this to 10%

Once Tesla has an offering that satisfies points 1,2,3 for the majority of the population it is game over. The demand for all intents and purposes unlimited.

The Gruenheide built Tesla Model Y + Compact will be the vehicles that appeals to 50% of size buyers, 80% of price sensitive buyers and 100% of time sensitive buyers. That improves TAM from ~2.5% of new car sales to ~40%.

VW will have a car that ostensibly competes with Tesla in 2027 (i.e. the second generation ID platform) so there is no EV competition on the horizon. The only competition is the fact that only 95% of people have a Tesla precluded in the earlier stage of their purchasing decision. Once its an option that is on the table, its the only logical choice.