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Tesla sales continue downwards trend in Europe

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Agreed I think this whole buying it the Tesla way is superior and the only hassle free way, is frankly a bit overcooked.
It's a fairer system, everyone knows everyone else is getting the same price. You always feel you didn't maybe haggle enough or someone else on some forum got a better deal than you did.

The lack of pressure after a test drive is refreshing also. Though as their sales struggle, I suspect that will change a bit as I had a few call backs that never had in the past from Tesla. At least they know I've ordered one though, Lotus would keep contacting me to order even after I'd ordered or had the car.
 
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My gripe with Tesla is nothing to do with Mr Musk. I honestly can't jump into the hate-everything-he-does camp that seems so popular these days.

It seems to mostly be related to lingering anger about his Twitter buyout which seems to have inflamed certain people so high it is completely skewing their Tesla viewpoint.

I was just having an FSD conversation with someone yesterday and the "skewing" makes it impossible to have a logical conversation with them.

Me: Yeah I had that free FSD in April and it was awesome
Him: But he refuses to use LiDAR so it isn't going to work.
Me: Works pretty well fo me
Him: What happens when people jump infront of it
Me: uh the cameras see them and it stops
Him: Well he refuses to use LIDAR and I think he is an egotistical..
Me: [rolls eyes]..oh brother here we go...
 
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It seems to mostly be related to lingering anger about his Twitter buyout which seems to have inflamed certain people so high it is completely skewing their Tesla viewpoint.

I was just having an FSD conversation with someone yesterday and the "skewing" makes it impossible to have a logical conversation with them.

Me: Yeah I had that free FSD in April and it was awesome
Him: But he refuses to use LiDAR so it isn't going to work.
Me: Works pretty well fo me
Him: What happens when people jump infront of it
Me: uh the cameras see them and it stops
Him: Well he refuses to use LIDAR and I think he is an egotistical..
Me: [rolls eyes]..oh brother here we go...
Musk has put himself front and centre as the face of Tesla so it's not surprising he affects people's opinions on the brand given his activity on X.

LiDAR is a perfectly reasonable expectation of Driver Assistance systems, and it's Musk, apparently, who wants to rely solely on Vision.

There's a video doing the rounds at the moment of a car on FSD approaching a level crossing in the fog, the driver clearly shouldn't have been relying on FSD so much, but do have to wonder if radar or LiDAR would have detected the train...
 
There's a video doing the rounds at the moment of a car on FSD approaching a level crossing in the fog, the driver clearly shouldn't have been relying on FSD so much, but do have to wonder if radar or LiDAR would have detected the train...

You can’t leave it on that cliff hanger. What happened next? Did it detect the train and if not, did it crash and did they all die. I’m not going to be able to sleep until I get the hear what happened next episode…
 
You can’t leave it on that cliff hanger. What happened next? Did it detect the train and if not, did it crash and did they all die. I’m not going to be able to sleep until I get the hear what happened next episode…
😁

The video shows the driver taking over at the last minute and swerving off the road to avoid the train, took out the crossing signals I think.

They saved their own life.


Here you go, you can rest easy 😁
 
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with SCs opening up to the public, what is really an incentive to buy a Tesla?

What it has to offer, really, compared to others?
a tiny bit more range, efficiency? please. most people charge at home all the time and do not care about those.
FSD? Yeah, right.
better sound insulation and comfort? :D
Better price? Well, no, not really.

With so much choice these days, what is the incentive to buy the tesla?
 
with SCs opening up to the public, what is really an incentive to buy a Tesla?

What it has to offer, really, compared to others?
a tiny bit more range, efficiency? please. most people charge at home all the time and do not care about those.
FSD? Yeah, right.
better sound insulation and comfort? :D
Better price? Well, no, not really.

With so much choice these days, what is the incentive to buy the tesla?
Speed and handling for the price is pretty decent, if you need the Supercharger network then that's still a definite positive, at least in the UK.

Otherwise, people will now choose cars for the myriad reasons they used to now there's choice.
 
with SCs opening up to the public, what is really an incentive to buy a Tesla?

What it has to offer, really, compared to others?
a tiny bit more range, efficiency? please. most people charge at home all the time and do not care about those.
FSD? Yeah, right.
better sound insulation and comfort? :D
Better price? Well, no, not really.

With so much choice these days, what is the incentive to buy the tesla?
The overall package is still market competitive and there’s plenty of profit per vehicle to discount against. I’m glad there’s increasing choice and diversity in the market though, and long may it continue.
 
Musk has put himself front and centre as the face of Tesla so it's not surprising he affects people's opinions on the brand given his activity on X.

LiDAR is a perfectly reasonable expectation of Driver Assistance systems, and it's Musk, apparently, who wants to rely solely on Vision.

There's a video doing the rounds at the moment of a car on FSD approaching a level crossing in the fog, the driver clearly shouldn't have been relying on FSD so much, but do have to wonder if radar or LiDAR would have detected the train...
I can understand trying to tied different sensors together is actually pretty hard so trying to solve it with just vision probably makes it a bit easier at this point. However longer term I think if they want to be far superior to humans they need sensors that can detect things in situations that we cannot. Lidar / Radar gives a car vision in situations where regular cameras might not see anything.
 
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😁

The video shows the driver taking over at the last minute and swerving off the road to avoid the train, took out the crossing signals I think.

They saved their own life.


Here you go, you can rest easy 😁
FSD is a pipe dream. This video is really excellent at discussing its fundamental limitations.

 
I’ve not watched the video but one of the reasons that these ‘self driving’ systems will end up having lower collision rates than humans is the general incompetence of humans.

Humans are easily distracted and willingly/knowingly do stupid, illogical and display outright negligent behaviour on a regular basis.

The ‘self driving’ systems also react to most hazards far faster meaning they tend to mitigate the effects of collisions better than humans do.

Sure, they are 100% worse than humans when it comes to edge cases of edge cases (see the person that was dragged under the self driving car in America) but the net impact is more likely to be positive than negative.

They will not be collisions free, anyone suggests that they will be are delusional. But as long as there is a net positive, these systems will eventually take over.
 
It seems to mostly be related to lingering anger about his Twitter buyout which seems to have inflamed certain people so high it is completely skewing their Tesla viewpoint.

I was just having an FSD conversation with someone yesterday and the "skewing" makes it impossible to have a logical conversation with them.

Me: Yeah I had that free FSD in April and it was awesome
Him: But he refuses to use LiDAR so it isn't going to work.
Me: Works pretty well fo me
Him: What happens when people jump infront of it
Me: uh the cameras see them and it stops
Him: Well he refuses to use LIDAR and I think he is an egotistical..
Me: [rolls eyes]..oh brother here we go...

People are often ruled by emotions in the short term. Longer term they conveniently forget their position. I find it very curious, as I tend to be fact-based & go to the original sources when I can. I think that those who let facebook dominate their social media are really harming themselves from paid propaganda that is then repeated and snowballs.
 
People are often ruled by emotions in the short term. Longer term they conveniently forget their position. I find it very curious, as I tend to be fact-based & go to the original sources when I can. I think that those who let facebook dominate their social media are really harming themselves from paid propaganda that is then repeated and snowballs.
So current narratives (they just get repeated, often every 3 months because of Tesla delivery wave, otherwise whenever there's a factory upgrade or shipping problem). Can't people remember all the times (over many years) that variants of these have been debunked?

China sales down - extremely competitive, economy doing VERY badly - yet Tesla doing well.
1716889520196.png


Europe sales down
1716890039608.png

UK sales down -
  • Not the greatest time to buy relatively expensive cars.
  • Used Tesla prices seem to be rising.
  • Supply problems due to Red Sea closure
  • Likely price cuts

People are switching to hybrids - from ICE

Tesla relies on China too much - Tesla reported to be most proactive in securing supply chains in case of Taiwan-related problems. Source cited various suppliers being sent info/requests/demands from Tesla.

FSD - criticisms largely relate to the highway driving which is still 11. Newer versions coming quicker. Soon to be widely released version should be same stack throughout. UK has changed the law (Royal Assent) to allow Autonomous Vehicles before some other jurisdictions (perhaps by 2026). Change of government might change this of course, but might not.


Road safety is at the heart of the legislation, with automated vehicles expected to improve road safety by reducing human error, which contributes to 88% of road collisions.

The law will require self-driving vehicles to achieve a level of safety at least as high as careful and competent human drivers, as well as meeting rigorous safety checks before being allowed onto roads. Therefore, in the future deaths and injuries from drink driving, speeding, tiredness and inattention could be drastically reduced.
 
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The issue is that sales are not rising at +20% which is the growth story the planet needs to see and which tesla shareholders need to see. Tesla is priced as a very strong growth story and sales are not growing and it has nothing to do with red sea, etc. The entire time there have been lots of inventory spread around EU, other brands have higher sales, the auto industry has higher sales. Tesla has had a few months of decline and is now shutting down some of the Y production line. They had negative cash flow..a huge warning sign. Not a canary in the coal mine but a coal miner dying. So EM is now fully engaged, he's making changes and seems very focused on restoring share prices but that doesn't seem to be in snych with sustainability IMO. We'll see.
 
The issue is that sales are not rising at +20%
Between waves of expansion - new models expected end of 2024-start of 2025. France's Tesla Y Van would sell well in many countries. Musk is prepping for a price war. Who will be harmed? Non-Tesla for the most part. A wave of cheaper Chinese EVs will affect European manufacturers of both ICE and EVs. Crater resale values & mess up VW/BMW etc financing.

which is the growth story the planet needs to see and which tesla shareholders need to see. Tesla is priced as a very strong growth story and sales are not growing
Growth will come shortly. In the meantime energy storage has huge demands, great profits and is being ramped by Tesla.

and it has nothing to do with red sea, etc.
Red Sea has upset all kinds of supply chains. Longer journeys, fewer unladen ships. Huge numbers of BYDs etc clogging up European ports & HGV vehicle transporters.

The entire time there have been lots of inventory spread around EU,

Source? It's been said many times, but debunked except on rare occasions, and then only temporary mismatch for a few countries while others have sold out.

other brands have higher sales, the auto industry has higher sales.
VW Group usually has higher market share than Tesla in Europe. That reversed in 2024Q1 with Tesla beating the whole of VW Group (only the third time in 4 years).

Tesla has had a few months of decline and is now shutting down some of the Y production line.
By some reports. Berlin is now doing Right-hand Drive Model Ys, perhaps there is a production-line improvement planned.

They had negative cash flow..a huge warning sign. Not a canary in the coal mine but a coal miner dying. So EM is now fully engaged, he's making changes and seems very focused on restoring share prices but that doesn't seem to be in snych with sustainability IMO. We'll see.
Elon doesn't care about share prices very much. He can see the huge headwinds that will temporarily hit and has prepared Tesla for them. It's Tesla's competitors that will be most affected by these issues.

Others differ in their analysis
"For these reasons, the adjusted or ‘normalized’ free cash flow number of Tesla in Q1 2024 was $1.2 billion."
-

This is how you should think about Tesla’s Q1 2024 cash flow: Tesla delivered positive free cash flow $1.2 billion adjusted for one-off items.
1) Tesla reported free cash flow (FCF) was negative $2.5 billion.
2) Tesla spent $1.0 billion on AI infrastructure and will be spending close to this number in subsequent quarters. However, this should not be considered a ‘permanent’ or ‘perpetuity’ item from a valuation standpoint.
3) Similarly, the Red Sea conflict, arson attack at Gigafactory Berlin, and other factors led to a temporary spike in inventories causing a negative Q1 cash flow impact of $2.7 billion (you can find this number in Tesla’s cash flow statement). This too should not be considered a recurring item.
4) For these reasons, the adjusted or ‘normalized’ free cash flow number of Tesla in Q1 2024 was $1.2 billion.
 
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FSD is a pipe dream. This video is really excellent at discussing its fundamental limitations.

A bit of a non sequitur but if and when we resolve the technical issues how do we resolve the moral ones.
e.g. You come around a corner and there is an idiot overtaking an HGV in your lane.
You have three choices
1) swerve right and hit the HGV head on
2) brake and have a head on with the overtaking car
3) swerve left and possibly hit one or more of the pedestrians on the pavement?


A human would probably not have time to think and would just react and might do any one of the 3 but if given time to think about it and come to a decision what would you do? and what should FSD do? What % chance of hitting a pedestrian would make it OK to mount the pavement?
Maybe there is a consensus answer to this one made up on the spur of the moment but there are plenty more of these.

My prediction is a "Me First" monthly addon subscription which for only an extra $20 skews the cars moral compass in your direction so it will mow down school children at a bus stop without a second thought if there is a 1% chance you might break a finger nail.
 
A bit of a non sequitur but if and when we resolve the technical issues how do we resolve the moral ones.
e.g. You come around a corner and there is an idiot overtaking an HGV in your lane.
You have three choices
1) swerve right and hit the HGV head on
2) brake and have a head on with the overtaking car
3) swerve left and possibly hit one or more of the pedestrians on the pavement?


A human would probably not have time to think and would just react and might do any one of the 3 but if given time to think about it and come to a decision what would you do? and what should FSD do? What % chance of hitting a pedestrian would make it OK to mount the pavement?
Maybe there is a consensus answer to this one made up on the spur of the moment but there are plenty more of these.

My prediction is a "Me First" monthly addon subscription which for only an extra $20 skews the cars moral compass in your direction so it will mow down school children at a bus stop without a second thought if there is a 1% chance you might break a finger nail.
As you say, a human could do anything. As more cars have Full Self Driving enabled, edge cases & stupidity reduce. It often takes two or more stupid actors to have a serious incident. When only one is human, risk reduces.


FSD can work faster than us, it can potentially
  • Work out relative speeds, potential braking ability of each vehicle according to road, weight, type etc
  • Work out relative damage models of each choice and whether head-on better than scrape (Titanic mode)
  • Know if the Tesla has passengers and where are they - back - front - children, adults (bit of a stretch there - but given better internal camera, assuming all seats have suitably clever weight sensors - not just simple weight on/off ones)
  • Prioritise vulnerable road users/children (even be a barrier between idiot and pedestrians)
  • Teslas can already pre-deploy airbags before a crash and vary deployment according to person's height and weight
  • De-prioritise "guilty party"
 
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It seems to mostly be related to lingering anger about his Twitter buyout which seems to have inflamed certain people so high it is completely skewing their Tesla viewpoint.

I was just having an FSD conversation with someone yesterday and the "skewing" makes it impossible to have a logical conversation with them.

Me: Yeah I had that free FSD in April and it was awesome
Him: But he refuses to use LiDAR so it isn't going to work.
Me: Works pretty well fo me
Him: What happens when people jump infront of it
Me: uh the cameras see them and it stops
Him: Well he refuses to use LIDAR and I think he is an egotistical..
Me: [rolls eyes]..oh brother here we go...
Actually, this is a very good example frankly of what is wrong at Tesla. Musk indeed believes that his neural network will get smart enough to use vision alone (as in - humans rely on 2 eyes to create a 4D space, so can Tesla vision). This is his belief - not based on data. The direction of the entire company now relies on this vision (sorry for the pun), ignoring all the actual engineering and data. His successes were backed up by real engineering and his failures were not. This one isn’t.
 
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I believe that one unexplored demand lever could be a cost of repairs and servicing.
As more and more used cars hit the market, cost of ownership post first 3 years will become a very important factor. Someone has to buy all those used cars off fleet?
My experience is that Tesla service centers are average. Cost of trivial jobs is too high such as £200 to lublicant your brake pads or £350 for wheel alignment.
Battery replacement cost is murky and eye watering if stated.
Tesla could also offer some aftermarket suspension, hardware and vision upgrades at a reasonable price.
There is a reason Toyota has a such loyal customer base selling plain and boring product....
 
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