Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Thekiwi]

Good find, thank you. Vanguard (at least according to Fintel.io) has not filed its 13F yet.

Even when accounting for this, there are still a good ~60M shares missing, but it's a bit less than 100M

Completely wild conjecture on my part, but there was an odd thing in Berkshire hathaways 13-F filing today: They had one new position blacked out as "it would move the market too much if it was revealed" apparently they were able to get permission to do this.

 

[FrankSG]

Completely wild conjecture on my part, but there was an odd thing in Berkshire hathaways 13-F filing today: They had one new position blacked out as "it would move the market too much if it was revealed" apparently they were able to get permission to do this.

Somebody mentioned this on Twitter. Very interesting.

 

[lafrisbee]

Sure, let's use Aug 2020 as our guide. There were ~7.5% of TSLA shares sold short according to the latest NASDAQ report before Tesla announce the stock dividend/split on Aug 11. Over the next 3 weeks (until the pre-Market session on Sep 1st) the SP rose to from $275 (split adjusted) to $500 (just before the $5B "At Market" Share Offering was announced).

So, that's ~7.5% of shares needed to change hands in 3 weeks, causing a 100% spike in SP.

S&P will be ~15% of shares needed over about 5 weeks (details forthcoming on Nov 30).

Imma call it somewhere btwn +100-200% for the SP peak during the runup.

Not Advice.

Cheers!

HA! Poor me. I pretty much believe everytime you talk about TSLA...my heart started racing.

 

[larmor]

Completely wild conjecture on my part, but there was an odd thing in Berkshire hathaways 13-F filing today: They had one new position blacked out as "it would move the market too much if it was revealed" apparently they were able to get permission to do this.

Ha ha sharpie manufacturer now to be included in the S&P 500 to join Etsy.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Completely wild conjecture on my part, but there was an odd thing in Berkshire hathaways 13-F filing today: They had one new position blacked out as "it would move the market too much if it was revealed" apparently they were able to get permission to do this.

Tesla became a sure thing after 3Q earnings and was also no longer a bargain. Two absolute requirements for Warren to invest.

Jesus, talk about throwing gasoline on the flaming embers of the legacy automotive and fossil fuel industries. Delightful.

 

[Cherry Wine]

I foresee those $445 covered calls I have expiring on Friday being called . . .

I’m got some sold $470s sitting out there - I think I’m going to just buy them back and eat the losses.

 

[Paul_SF]

I said a long time ago that Mr. Munger will have a part of this amazing company run by the most amazing CEO we ever seen.

Mr Li Lu and Himalaya Capital definitely are already holders of TSLA.

One last major move by Mr Munger and Mr. Buffett.

It’s known how much they despise short selling also and definitely wanted to be part in the Greatest Short Burn in the history of the markets.

 

[vikings123]

Completely wild conjecture on my part, but there was an odd thing in Berkshire hathaways 13-F filing today: They had one new position blacked out as "it would move the market too much if it was revealed" apparently they were able to get permission to do this.

Very interesting. Do you have a link to the filing or news article? Thanks.

 

[Cherry Wine]

It will depend on SP and IV tomorrow, but I am thinking I want to include the actual S&P fund forced purchasing dates (Dec. 9-24 as explained above) for at least half of my calls as I expect a climb until then and then an inevitable spike during that period (and then likely a sell-off towards the end of that period and after), so I will be buying 50% Dec. 11/18 and 50% Dec. 31 calls. Strike prices I think I will do ranges between $100-200 above what the SP opens at tomorrow with the higher strike prices more concentrated in the later calls. It's hard to know until I see the real prices tomorrow though.

For Dec. 18. $100 OTM calls ($510) closed at $4.40 today and so with higher IV will probably open at $5.50 tomorrow (ie. if SP open at $450 I am talking about $550 calls). $150 OTM calls closed at $2.15 today so maybe $3.00 tomorrow (ie. $600 calls if SP opens at $450). I like those as I can load up for pretty cheap. Dec. 31 calls will of course have higher premiums and I will probably pick higher strikes.

12/18 $500s were trading at $18 when the price spiked to $450 a week ago. There is no way the $510s are trading at just $5 and change tomorrow morning. Probably $10+.

 

[Singuy]

Completely wild conjecture on my part, but there was an odd thing in Berkshire hathaways 13-F filing today: They had one new position blacked out as "it would move the market too much if it was revealed" apparently they were able to get permission to do this.

Oh NOW he black it out. What about all them advertising about snowflakes before IPO?

 

[Cherry Wine]

Completely wild conjecture on my part, but there was an odd thing in Berkshire hathaways 13-F filing today: They had one new position blacked out as "it would move the market too much if it was revealed" apparently they were able to get permission to do this.

How long could this holding be hidden? And if it were TSLA, what type of reaction would you expect?

 

[mblakele]

Dear Mr Market,

I've set up a sell ladder with my IRA shares, starting around 2x and then up like a kite.

If you want those shares, you know what to do.

PS — 60D GTC

PPS — You can't have my taxable shares

 

[joh01652]

Completely wild conjecture on my part, but there was an odd thing in Berkshire hathaways 13-F filing today: They had one new position blacked out as "it would move the market too much if it was revealed" apparently they were able to get permission to do this.

How long can they keep this a secret? What sort of timeline do they have to work with before they must reveal the new holding?

 

[dw4ngg]

I can’t find the blacked out new position in Berkshire’s latest 13-F filing

 

[insaneoctane]

DELICIOUS

 

[Artful Dodger]

Some of you younger folks may question the relevance of including celebratory music from Canada's Polka King, Walter Ostanek.

It's very simple: you see, Walter was born on 4/20. Instant relevance.

Prost!

 

[Mengy]

I can’t find the blacked out new position in Berkshire’s latest 13-F filing

I don't see it either, nor can I find any news about it?

 

[capster]

You know, tomorrow might be a good day to order that made in the Carolinas couch and that farmhouse pottery dishware from Vermont I’ve been waffling about buying.

Yeah, and I think I’ll make my annual E2/NRDC donation.

Ain’t life grand?

edit: Okay first, maybe I’ll have another glass or so of wine tonight.

 

[Todd Burch]

Nope, please look at his other tweets: https://twitter.com/garyblack00/status/1328492541264748546
He wrote that it will remain at the current price by 12/21, while maintaining his long term target of $720. I am saying that, though a respected Tesla bull, he is vastly underestimating the near term increase.

Agree. Gary’s a TSLA bull but he’s been off by quite a bit in the past. I wouldn’t put too much weight in his opinions.

 

[mejojo]

I think we could spike to the mid fives, but my call is that we will trade sideways for a year or two. Range bound 400 to 500. I think we need FSD or massive battery production to kick in for our market cap to meaningfully close in on the likes of apple and MSFT.

You don't think delivering over 1M+ cars per year and the associated profit will not bust it upwards? I am pretty sure credits will not be an issue next year.