Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Prunesquallor]

More importantly - where are my short shorts when I need them most?

I mean, let’s get real. Photos of all of us wearing short-shorts with the thunderbolt bottle in hand.

 

[Singuy]

So what is the short/medium term play here? I hope this doesn’t get lost in the excitement.

I’m all HODL however I’d be open to trimming from my long term account in the event of a squeeze. Do we see that happening earlier or closer to the day? Are people putting limit orders in at different levels? I think we mostly agree this could be a 10 trillion$ company someday, but probably shouldn’t be valued at 1trillion this week. lol. Sell orders at $800? This is my first inclusion. Go slow.

PS I love this timing as I believe it will help prop up TSLA through what I believe to be a pending macro disaster. I went all cash and Tesla today. Dow making new highs with what’s coming our way. Oh hell no. lol

Given that Nio just goes up because they have a very solid business plan, Tsla can become a trillion dollars and stays there..who knows..lol.

I think the ultimate win is a squeeze to a trillion and then drops by 20%...then stabilize. If that's the case then I will not be selling as just thinking about the taxes give me a headache.

 

[Sancho]

The fascinating thing to me is not how unprecedentedly large Tesla’s market cap is at the time of admission to S&P, but how unprecedentedly vast its opportunity for growth is. 2T? Do I hear 3T? Who will bid 4T?

No matter how high the SP goes, it can’t be dismissed as untethered to realistic opportunity.

 

[Unpilot]

I need to recalibrate my sell price.

@Krugerrand i hear mountains in Siberia are available.

 

[Knightshade]

just to be clear, all index buying has to be completed prior to 12/21 in scenario 1?

Depends on the fund.

But AFAIK most have a window both before and after official inclusion date they can buy up to whatever level they need...(I think I've seen +/- 3 and 7 days at least, I imagine there's others with other windows)

That - window is why pre-buying doesn't work for such funds- they literally can't under their own rules.

 

[enzo]

Sounds like his price target is $720. $460 is the (approximate) current price.

Nope, please look at his other tweets: https://twitter.com/garyblack00/status/1328492541264748546
He wrote that it will remain at the current price by 12/21, while maintaining his long term target of $720. I am saying that, though a respected Tesla bull, he is vastly underestimating the near term increase.

 

[strago13]

Depends on the fund.

But AFAIK most have a window both before and after official inclusion date they can buy up to whatever level they need...(I think I've seen +/- 3 and 7 days at least, I imagine there's others with other windows)

That - window is why pre-buying doesn't work for such funds- they literally can't under their own rules.

Thanks. Don’t play options on events, but this seems ripe for the picking.

 

[FrankSG]

There's something else going on on top of the S&P inclusion that's quite interesting, namely the information coming out of the 13Fs:

TSLA's S&P 500 Inclusion & 100M Missing TSLA Shares

 

[Featsbeyond50]

100-200%?

If this comes to pass, I will publicly announce my retirement to everyone at Christmas. At 10 bagger status, my lethargic "job search" officially ends.

Yeah, 200% gets me well past my retirement number. Of course, I'd wait to see where the share price settles before making any quick decision.

Personally, I don't see even 100% happening. I think we could spike to the mid fives, but my call is that we will trade sideways for a year or two. Range bound 400 to 500. I think we need FSD or massive battery production to kick in for our market cap to meaningfully close in on the likes of apple and MSFT.

 

[wipster]

Sure, let's use Aug 2020 as our guide. There were ~7.5% of TSLA shares sold short according to the latest NASDAQ report before Tesla announce the stock dividend/split on Aug 11. Over the next 3 weeks (until the pre-Market session on Sep 1st) the SP rose to from $275 (split adjusted) to $500 (just before the $5B "At Market" Share Offering was announced).

So, that's ~7.5% of shares needed to change hands in 3 weeks, causing a 100% spike in SP.

S&P will be ~15% of shares needed over about 5 weeks (details forthcoming on Nov 30).

Imma call it somewhere btwn +100-200% for the SP peak during the runup.

Not Advice.

Cheers!

Thanks Lodger, you made my holiday season! Plus that's all pre P&D and Financials for FY2020 right? Damn...

 

[ninpb]

Not proctologist today, but skin getting poked and shots by dermatologist. You're welcome.

 

[juanmedina]

It will depend on SP and IV tomorrow, but I am thinking I want to include the actual S&P fund forced purchasing dates (Dec. 9-24 as explained above) for at least half of my calls as I expect a climb until then and then an inevitable spike during that period (and then likely a sell-off towards the end of that period and after), so I will be buying 50% Dec. 11/18 and 50% Dec. 31 calls. Strike prices I think I will do ranges between $100-200 above what the SP opens at tomorrow with the higher strike prices more concentrated in the later calls. It's hard to know until I see the real prices tomorrow though.

For Dec. 18. $100 OTM calls ($510) closed at $4.40 today and so with higher IV will probably open at $5.50 tomorrow (ie. if SP open at $450 I am talking about $550 calls). $150 OTM calls closed at $2.15 today so maybe $3.00 tomorrow (ie. $600 calls if SP opens at $450). I like those as I can load up for pretty cheap. Dec. 31 calls will of course have higher premiums and I will probably pick higher strikes.

Dec 31st call only go up to $500 strike .

 

[MP3Mike]

There's something else going on on top of the S&P inclusion that's quite interesting, namely the information coming out of the 13Fs:

TSLA's S&P 500 Inclusion & 100M Missing TSLA Shares

Unless they just happened to sell all of the split shares they gained it seems that Vanguard screwed up their submission. (Exactly the same share count before and after the 5x split? ) Though NASDAQ shows their share count as 43,281,548, so maybe it is a data entry error in your spreadsheet? (But maybe you are splitting their individual funds out while the NASDAQ isn't.)

If they just rolled the numbers forward because they didn't have any TSLA trades that accounts for ~35M of your missing shares.

 

[wipster]

After finishing my celebratory bourbon and soaking in this win, I remembered that I left my car in the driveway. I went to the garage and opened it. From my phone I told my car to pull itself forward into the garage and then it automatically closed the door behind it.

Living in the future is pretty cool sometimes. Cheers to the longs.

Heck, I thought it was cool just to be able to close my garage doors from bed... that is definitely George Jetson dude!

 

[Nocturnal]

Heck, I thought it was cool just to be able to close my garage doors from bed... that is definitely George Jetson dude!

Homelink will close or open the door automatically while using summon. It’s a cool little feature.

 

[Dreadnought]

Sure, let's use Aug 2020 as our guide. There were ~7.5% of TSLA shares sold short according to the latest NASDAQ report before Tesla announce the stock dividend/split on Aug 11. Over the next 3 weeks (until the pre-Market session on Sep 1st) the SP rose to from $275 (split adjusted) to $500 (just before the $5B "At Market" Share Offering was announced).

So, that's ~7.5% of shares needed to change hands in 3 weeks, causing a 100% spike in SP.

S&P will be ~15% of shares needed over about 5 weeks (details forthcoming on Nov 30).

Imma call it somewhere btwn +100-200% for the SP peak during the runup.

Not Advice.

Cheers!

And some of those 53M virtual shares (per 10/15, update due on Friday, I believe) will also be bought back when the price gets too squeezy.

 

[Artful Dodger]

What I do not understand is why the S&P has created such a long gap between announcement and inclusion date ?
Do they want to screw over all their funds ? Give 4 weeks to the speculators to run up the price before the funds can buy ?

Yes, you've put you finger on a major departure in S&P protocol. On the surface, we might be able to attribute it to TSLA's unprecedented Mkt Cap at inclusion (requiring $51B in TSLA to be purchased).

Together with the simultaneous request for consultation on the pacing of inclusion (2 tranches; % weighted) we see an S&P Committee that is out of their comfort zone.

Which is exactly where Tesla plays. Daily. The DISRUPTOR!

Cheers!

 

[M|S|M MYP]

Yes, but don't tell my wife

How about we tell the girlfriend instead??

 

[FrankSG]

Unless they just happened to sell all of the split shares they gained it seems that Vanguard screwed up their submission. (Exactly the same share count before and after the 5x split? ) Though NASDAQ shows their share count as 43,281,548, so maybe it is a data entry error in your spreadsheet? (But maybe you are splitting their individual funds out while the NASDAQ isn't.)

If they just rolled the numbers forward because they didn't have any TSLA trades that accounts for ~35M of your missing shares.

Good find, thank you. Vanguard (at least according to Fintel.io) has not filed its 13F yet.

Even when accounting for this, there are still a good ~60M shares missing, but it's a bit less than 100M

 

[Silent Ludicrosy]

I foresee those $445 covered calls I have expiring on Friday being called . . .

Or roll them.