Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Mr X]

Wow. About damn time. Good thing I bought more earlier!


I see $500 by end of year and continuing to rise after. The stagnation the past few months ever since the split has been dull. But in it for the long run. Finally made S&P smh

 

[Krugerrand]

S&P Math bought to you by CNBC
https://twitter.com/BarkMSmeagol/status/1328486805369327616

That’s what happens when the maths gets too big for the brain. Just looked at myself in the mirror while doing similar calculations and had the exact same expression on my face. Mom might actually have called it again.

 

[Boomer19]

what did i miss?

 

[Prunesquallor]

I am not joking. My wife is drinking large bottles of prep for her colonoscopy tomorrow morning. We close over 500 tomorrow for sure!

Tell her the misery will be well worth it.

 

[ByeByeJohnny]

I'm thinking a certain house buying Belgian might be slightly upset with his wifes timing when they wake up.

 

[phantasms]

So what is the short/medium term play here? I hope this doesn’t get lost in the excitement.

I’m all HODL however I’d be open to trimming from my long term account in the event of a squeeze. Do we see that happening earlier or closer to the day? Are people putting limit orders in at different levels? I think we mostly agree this could be a 10 trillion$ company someday, but probably shouldn’t be valued at 1trillion this week. lol. Sell orders at $800? This is my first inclusion. Go slow.

PS I love this timing as I believe it will help prop up TSLA through what I believe to be a pending macro disaster. I went all cash and Tesla today. Dow making new highs with what’s coming our way. Oh hell no. lol

 

[Krugerrand]

Timing couldn't be worse for me, sold 30 shares @450 about a week ago. I was actually about to buy it back at $408 today when I got disctracted by contractors working on the house fixing our bathroom, then I never made the trade. I guess I will try to buy back in at a loss. Can't win them all right?

Stop selling and you’ll be a winner all day long, every day.

 

[Nocturnal]

So what is the short/medium term play here? I hope this doesn’t get lost in the excitement.

I’m all HODL however I’d be open to trimming from my long term account in the event of a squeeze. Do we see that happening earlier or closer to the day? Are people putting limit orders in at different levels? I think we mostly agree this could be a 10 trillion$ company someday, but probably shouldn’t be valued at 1trillion this week. lol. Sell orders at $800? This is my first inclusion. Go slow.

I don’t think anyone knows. There are a pretty big range of possibilities. Too many actors and every situation is different.

My plan is to watch the SP obsessively (more so than normal) and pay attention to the smart people here. I have a few plays in mind. Sell my calls on an Iv/price spike, sell shares in a staggered ladder based on price, maybe sell covered calls on some.

 

[Tim S]

While he does admit there "could be" a squeeze, his target of $460 for 12/21 seems very naive, not accounting for retail/meme buyup and short squeeze. I also doubt that these AH purchases today are for the purpose of attenuating the squeeze—who will want to sell during the squeeze?

Sounds like his price target is $720. $460 is the (approximate) current price.

 

[bkp_duke]

I wonder if I'll be able to Buy to Close my covered calls tomorrow, or if when the market opens they will just be exercised automatically. If I can Buy to Close, I wonder what that might cost me.

Hrm, 1st world problem for sure.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Finally !!! Anyone hazard a guess as to what the share price will be by the end of the year ?

Sure, let's use Aug 2020 as our guide. There were ~7.5% of TSLA shares sold short according to the latest NASDAQ report before Tesla announce the stock dividend/split on Aug 11. Over the next 3 weeks (until the pre-Market session on Sep 1st) the SP rose to from $275 (split adjusted) to $500 (just before the $5B "At Market" Share Offering was announced).

So, that's ~7.5% of shares needed to change hands in 3 weeks, causing a 100% spike in SP.

S&P will be ~15% of shares needed over about 5 weeks (details forthcoming on Nov 30).

Imma call it somewhere btwn +100-200% for the SP peak during the runup.

Not Advice.

Cheers!

 

[Prunesquallor]

So what is the short/medium term play here? I hope this doesn’t get lost in the excitement.

I’m all HODL however I’d be open to trimming from my long term account in the event of a squeeze. Do we see that happening earlier or closer to the day? Are people putting limit orders in at different levels? I think we mostly agree this could be a 10 trillion$ company someday, but probably shouldn’t be valued at 1trillion this week. lol. Sell orders at $800? This is my first inclusion. Go slow.

Tomorrow I’m going to figure out a sell limit ladder with some of my long-term cap gains tax lots (~15% of holdings). I want to get rid of margin. And, *of course*, I plan to be off the grid from Dec 5-12 (scuba diving offshore of Belize, Covid willing). I’m thinking in the $700-$800 range to capture a spike, but will be monitoring the opinions of folks more knowledgeable than me.

edit: Like Lodger

 

[bkp_duke]

Sure, let's use Aug 2020 as our guide. There were ~7.5% of TSLA shares sold short according to the latest NASDAQ report before Tesla announce the stock dividend/split on Aug 11. Over the next 3 weeks (until the pre-Market session on Sep 1st) the SP rose to from $275 (split adjusted) to $500 (just before the $5B "At Market" Share Offering was announced).

So, that's ~7.5% of shares needed to change hands in 3 weeks, causing a 100% spike in SP.

S&P will be ~15% of shares needed over about 5 weeks (details forthcoming on Nov 30).

Imma call it somewhere btwn +100-200% for the SP peak during the runup.

Not Advice.

Cheers!

Well, that settles it. I better Buy to Close if I can. If not, I had best buy back in quickly.

 

[Mo City]

Sure, let's use Aug 2020 as our guide. There were ~7.5% of TSLA shares sold short according to the latest NASDAQ report before Tesla announce the stock dividend/split on Aug 11. Over the next 3 weeks (until the pre-Market session on Sep 1st) the SP rose to from $275 (split adjusted) to $500 (just before the $5B "At Market" Share Offering was announced).

So, that's ~7.5% of shares needed to change hands in 3 weeks, causing a 100% spike in SP.

S&P will be ~15% of shares needed over about 5 weeks (details forthcoming on Nov 30).

Imma call it somewhere btwn +100-200% for the SP peak during the runup.

Not Advice.

Cheers!

100-200%?

If this comes to pass, I will publicly announce my retirement to everyone at Christmas. At 10 bagger status, my lethargic "job search" officially ends.

 

[Sanny]

More importantly - where are my short shorts when I need them most?

 

[Sparky4life]

So what is the short/medium term play here? I hope this doesn’t get lost in the excitement.

I’m all HODL however I’d be open to trimming from my long term account in the event of a squeeze. Do we see that happening earlier or closer to the day? Are people putting limit orders in at different levels? I think we mostly agree this could be a 10 trillion$ company someday, but probably shouldn’t be valued at 1trillion this week. lol. Sell orders at $800? This is my first inclusion. Go slow.

PS I love this timing as I believe it will help prop up TSLA through what I believe to be a pending macro disaster. I went all cash and Tesla today. Dow making new highs with what’s coming our way. Oh hell no. lol

My plan is to do nothing. My shares are not for sale.

 

[Knightshade]

So what is the short/medium term play here? I hope this doesn’t get lost in the excitement.

Disclaimer- I may've had some wine since announcement.

But since I generally want to hold shares unless someone REALLY overpays for em I'm thinking right now my plan will be to wait for IV to spike up a ton, then sell LONG term CCs against those shares way OTM at like $1000.

Wait till post inclusion when the SP and IV comes back to earth, and rebuy for a fraction of what I sold em for.

(and if it does briefly spike over 1k and some idiot exercises early on me that's fine, I'll sell some puts with the cash and rebuy the shares cheaper when they come back to earth a bit)


Also I'm feeling really smart about the 390 Jan/Feb calls I bought when the SP dipped down around 400 in the last week or two... just have to figure out right time to offload those....Not sure about my Sept 21 LEAPs- those were intentionally bought to be LTCG investments so guess I'll see how big the spike gets.

I wonder if I'll be able to Buy to Close my covered calls tomorrow, or if when the market opens they will just be exercised automatically. If I can Buy to Close, I wonder what that might cost me.

Hrm, 1st world problem for sure.

AFAIK options never auto-exercise before expiration (and only then if ITM).

Whoever holds them might choose to exercise them early (in american style options anyway, european ones only exercise at expiration).... but you should likely have the chance to buy them back (at a loss no doubt) once markets open.

I've got some weeklies I sold at what WAS a decent bit OTM in an IRA this morning I'll need to take some loss on to do just that- as I expect with further IV and SP spikes coming in the next 4-6 weeks I can resell for more than it'll cost me to rebuy in the morning.

 

[ggr]

Colonoscopies, and jokes about them, are getting old.

 

[Nocturnal]

After finishing my celebratory bourbon and soaking in this win, I remembered that I left my car in the driveway. I went to the garage and opened it. From my phone I told my car to pull itself forward into the garage and then it automatically closed the door behind it.

Living in the future is pretty cool sometimes. Cheers to the longs.

 

[strago13]

Looks like it will be two weeks back-to-back:
View attachment 609089

just to be clear, all index buying has to be completed prior to 12/21 in scenario 1?