Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Runarbt]

I am looking at islands.. mountains aint my thing.

Why settle for one? This one is cute.. and inexpensive.

FERIEPARADIS PÅ EGEN ØY I RYFYLKE

 

[bkp_duke]

I have a cat.
I eat meat.
I have lots of money thanks to TSLA.
I own a mountain - albeit not a famous one.
Nobody here is ever getting an invite.
Trespassers will be shot even if they show up in a CYBRTRCK. I’ll be using a big enough caliber.
I don’t bluff 99.99% of the time, so clearly there is room for a corner case now and again. But you shouldn’t bet on it.

And this is why I'm a dog person.

Cranky cats.

 

[Tslynk67]

If they announce inclusion to take place over two quarters, I’d expect a dip as calls are repositioned. Some of the current run-up is probably related to delta-hedging resulting from December call buying. Many big players will probably want to move some of their bets to the next quarter. You’ll recall the impressive dip we had following S&P non-inclusion as well as the “tech correction” when it was reported Softbank was unwinding options plays.

I doubt it would be very severe considering the overall buying pressure but there might be a relative/temporary sale. Not advice of course.

I don't think S&P will spread $TSLA inclusion farther, they've already announced it will be fully in the index by 21st December, they gave no options past that, it was all in on 21st, or spread between 14th and 21st, anything else would be inviting legal action by those that lost money in the last few weeks.

 

[BornToFly]

Getting a bank loan with shares as collateral has been mentioned before. Anyone here recommend a bank for this kind of thing? I would rather not sell shares for big purchases, but Margin loans with Fidelity are expensive and run the risk of a margin call if the SP drops (since I'm 100% in one stock). Thanks.

 

[Tes La Ferrari]

Dedicated to all the TSLA HODL'rs, & FUD fighters:

“Impossible is just a big word thrown around by small men who find it easier to live in the world they've been given than to explore the power they have to change it. Impossible is not a fact. It's an opinion. Impossible is not a declaration. It's a dare. Impossible is potential. Impossible is temporary. Impossible is nothing.”

― Muhammad Ali

 

[UkNorthampton]

Getting a bank loan with shares as collateral has been mentioned before. Anyone here recommend a bank for this kind of thing? I would rather not sell shares for big purchases, but Margin loans with Fidelity are expensive and run the risk of a margin call if the SP drops (since I'm 100% in one stock). Thanks.

Phrase is "Lombard Loans" / "Lombard Credit" - I looked into it but can't use it as my TSLA is in tax-free accounts (technically can, but no banks will do it AFAIK).

 

[MP3Mike]

Getting a bank loan with shares as collateral has been mentioned before. Anyone here recommend a bank for this kind of thing? I would rather not sell shares for big purchases, but Margin loans with Fidelity are expensive and run the risk of a margin call if the SP drops (since I'm 100% in one stock). Thanks.

You are looking for a "line of credit", which Fidelity offers as well called a "Relationship Line of Credit". (Lines of credit normally have lower interest rates than margin.) But in cases where you are in mostly a single stock they only give you credit equal to ~25-40% of the stocks current value. And if the stock dips below that point you still have to provide more assets to secure against or pay back enough to bring it in to your loan requirements.

The credit percentage allowed for TSLA will likely go up at least some once it is in the S&P500. (That is how it works at E*TRADE.)

 

[M|S|M MYP]

Getting a bank loan with shares as collateral has been mentioned before. Anyone here recommend a bank for this kind of thing? I would rather not sell shares for big purchases, but Margin loans with Fidelity are expensive and run the risk of a margin call if the SP drops (since I'm 100% in one stock). Thanks.

I know jason debolt who owns 15k shares of $TSLA did this with Fidelity and they initially offered him 4% APR but dropped it to 2% APR after they found out Wells Fargo had given him 2.375%. Worth a shot in asking.

 

[ZeApelido]

FERIEPARADIS PÅ EGEN ØY I RYFYLKE

Those aren't real words.

 

[ZeApelido]

This massive container showed up. Apparently my wife has an "inspection" tomorrow.

I think we're definitely gonna clean out $600 early tomorrow.

 

[Dreadnought]

<snip/>
We're discussing all vehicle sales.
Tesla plans to take 25% of THOSE (roughly) by 2030 per Elons own words (about 20 million cars a year).
So do you believe all other battery producers will scale/ramp as fast or faster than Tesla by 2030?
Because that's the only way you get another 20 million EVs available to be sold by anybody else to get you to roughly 50% EVs by then.

I find it very very unlikely the entire rest of the industry will magically start scaling as fast on EVs or batteries as Tesla has... and without that the math simply does not work for making that many non-Tesla EVs in the next 10 years.
<snip/>

It doesn't concern Tesla's long-term success and as such doesn't belong to this thread. But since it relates to Tesla's mission and there are a few hours to kill until trading commences...

What makes you believe that there will be 40 Mio ICE cars sold by 2030? Petrol cars sales in EU declined 24% YoY this fall [1]. While the S-curve of EV growth is limited by production constraints, there is nothing to slow down the demise of fossil fuel. Crumbling resale values will deter new car buyers before mid of the decade. Leasing rates will go up for the same reason or further cut into slim margins. You argue that sometimes people urgently need a car? That's true. But does anyone ever need a new car? No. The guy whose 15 year old clunker broke down will just buy a 10 year old. The dude who trades his car for a new one every year doesn't need to and he won't get another ICE in '25 if it's blatantly outdated tech compared to the 2022 Model Cybertruck.

The consequence - and I'm not the first to come to this conclusion - is that encumbents will face a downturn in sales that'll make the dip in '08 and '09 look like a summer camp. EV sales will surpass other drivetrains somewhere between 2024 and 2027, depending on how those growth and shrink rates evolve. It will certainly not take until 2030 and the market will be a lot smaller than 80 Mio in the transition phase.
Keep in mind that even if half the buyers deferred their next vehicle purchase by 5 years, the fleet would only become 2.5 years older in average. Cars will just have to run a tad longer before they get exported to a 3rd world country.

[1] Fuel types of new cars: petrol 47.5%, hybrids 12.4%, electric 9.9% market share third quarter 2020 | ACEA - European Automobile Manufacturers' Association

Edit: grammar corrected (hopefully)

 

[Artful Dodger]

Since there is already so much noise in this Forum discussion, let me add my own: there is NO way I can keep up with the torrent of comments here .. we need some sort of filter, keeping side discussions (like this one) out of the main thread..

mods

 

[Chunky Jr.]

I am planning for a good day tomorrow and sitting on my couch hitting refresh. I really don't want to change my plans.

 

[Featsbeyond50]

This works both ways. You see that, right? We don’t know what the reality will be; good or bad. But notice your thought process was negative right from the get go. You looked for a way for it not to work for you. FYI, life is quite different if you flip that and go to a positive thought first. Or at least try and be neutral and make no thought and simply wait and see how it goes.

LOL You sound like me at work. Everybody there just comes up with reasons why something can't be done while I want them to figure out ways to make it work.

Regarding robotaxi, believe me I lean on the optimistic side but I don't see anyone here bringing up the possible reasons why it might not get widely adopted. There's pessimistic, there's optimistic, then there's realistic.

I don't think there's any doubt some form of robotaxi will be a thing in the near future. The question is, how big will it get. The possible range is; small niche serving city centers in good weather climates to 100% adaptation across the board. Where will it fall within that range and how much value will that mean for Tesla? If people are investing their hard earned cash, they should consider all the possibilities not just the most optimistic. It really might not get adopted as widely or as quickly as people think.

By the way, I'm all in on TSLA with or without robotaxi.

 

[Tes La Ferrari]

Tesla Full Self-Driving Beta wider release coming in just a few weeks, it's both scary and exciting - Electrek

Key points:
1. Musk says wider FSD beta release "probably coming in ~ 2weeks" .

2. "Musk also said that Canada could get the new features in December."


Link to Elon's tweet:

https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1332500802750083074?ref_src=twsrc^tfw|twcamp^tweetembed|twterm^1332500802750083074|twgr^|twcon^s1_&ref_url=https://electrek.co/

 

[Artful Dodger]

Ok, I must have missed a meeting or two, but when did ‘we’ move from owning islands to mountains???

Yup. Hedging for sea level rise.

Cheers!

 

[generalenthu]

Getting a bank loan with shares as collateral has been mentioned before. Anyone here recommend a bank for this kind of thing? I would rather not sell shares for big purchases, but Margin loans with Fidelity are expensive and run the risk of a margin call if the SP drops (since I'm 100% in one stock). Thanks.

Just ask fidelity to advance you a margin loan at fedfunds plus 50 bps. If not, threaten to move to IBKR, which has lowest published rates.

I know someone who moved from IBKR to TD ameritrade, now Schwab, because they offered to undercut IB on margin rates for loans in excess of $1MM. Nothing will be published. Just call and ask.

 

[enzo]

A note for this week. The high altitude launch/bellyflop of Starship will generate a lot of media coverage. If it fails, it could be spectacular and produce some viral videos, which will be used to generate FUD around Musk's perceived credibility. It could also trigger trading algos since Tesla tends to get name-dropped in such articles. On the contrary, if successful it could lead to a similar effect as the May crew launch (+6%). Shouldn't be a big deal, but worth being aware of.

 

[Knightshade]

What makes you believe that there will be 40 Mio ICE cars sold by 2030?

There's roughly 80 million total cars of all types sold annually.

The discussion was around the idea of EVs being at least 50% or more of them by 2030.

And the idea there's simply not enough batteries being made- or on the drawing board to build factories to make- anywhere near that number of EVs by 2030.

That only Tesla has a plan to get to half that number of EVs by then and nobody else does...and unless you believe other players can catch up or move faster than Tesla, it'd be mathematically impossible for EVs to be 50% or more of those sales because of lack of batteries.





If you want to insist it'll be even higher than 50% EVs you'll have an even higher hill to climb in explaining where all those batteries will be coming from.


To be clear- if batteries were not a constraint, I absolutely agree with you EV sales would be an easy majority by then..

But they really, really, really are such a constraint.

Elon drove this point home on BD over and over- and only Tesla appears to be doing nearly enough about it.

Petrol cars sales in EU declined 24% YoY this fall [1]. While the S-curve of EV growth is limited by production constraints, there is nothing to slow down the demise of fossil fuel. Crumbling resale values will deter new car buyers before mid of the decade. Leasing rates will go up for the same reason or further cut into slim margins. You argue that sometimes people urgently need a car? That's true. But does anyone ever need a new car? No.

And yet- they buy them.

For the vast majority of folks it makes no sense to ever buy a new car. And never has.

Yet somehow ~80 million of them are sold every year.

Including many many millions that have garbage resale value NOW, let alone when EVs take more share.

The idea people who have for generations repeatedly made the bad financial decision to buy a new car will magically stop doing so and just buy even crappier used ones BECAUSE EVS ARE COMING is, again, magical thinking unsupported by fact or reason.

The guy whose 15 year old clunker broke down will just buy a 10 year old

Why would he do that if he didn't last time?

The people who do that NOW aren't among the 80 million who buy new each year.

. The dude who trades his car for a new one every year doesn't need to and he won't get another ICE in '25 if it's blatantly outdated tech compared to the 2022 Model Cybertruck.

Yeah...no.

The guy doing that with a BMW 7 series every year is already doing what you claim he won't do

His BMW is outdated compared to a 2012 Model S.

Right now.

Yet he keeps turning in his BMW lease for a new one.... which even if Tesla didn't exist would be an idiotic financial decision.

He's sure as hell not going to go buy some old USED car because he's worried about losing value

Anybody trading in annually doesn't care about resale value. At all.

EV sales will surpass other drivetrains somewhere between 2024 and 2027

I'd be willing to bet a fairly substantial sum that's absolutely not what happens.

Hell most legacy companies "mass" EV rolls plans don't even start until 2025, some even later than that.


There's not enough batteries, and half the world isn't going to simply stop buying cars at all waiting for them.


Tesla will continue to sell every car they can make, even as they scale that number up massively... targeting 20 million vehicles a year on/before 2030.

That'd be about 25% of new car sales

They're only going to be able to make that many because of a massive amount of engineering and manufacturing effort to hack away at the single narrowest bottleneck holding back their mission.... lack of batteries.

Nobody else is taking that constraint remotely as seriously, nor putting in nearly as much effort at scale to reduce it.

Even the few legacy companies that actually have decent by any standard but Teslas EVs, who are themselves heavily cell constrained. Mostly they're just shrugging and wishing someone could sell them more batteries.

The few actually DOING something to increase supply (VW and GM for example) are doing so on scales that in a few years might get to a fraction of what GF1 already will produce this year.


Even worse for non-Tesla EV production- because the rest of the industry is lagging so far behind the curve on not just battery production- but battery cost - it means the price gap from ICE to EV among legacy vendors will last longer that it otherwise ought to- further slowing things down.

 

[MABMAB]

And another 11 posts on taxes deducted from this thread.

They can now be found at Tax questions and strategies

He said Deducted