Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Johan]

This chart is produced from actual data, given some assumptions.

"Some assumptions?" That's the understatement of the year isn't it? I can sort of agree on the model of these two curves existing and having an intersection which ends up being where the market, all things considered, price the shares, but how on earth did you calculate the slope of the curves. And why are they straight lines and not some more complex function???

 

[FrankSG]

This chart is produced from actual data, given some assumptions.

Can you share what data it is based on, and talk about what those assumptions are? You're basically just asking us to trust you that this random straight line will equal supply of TSLA shares, without explaining any of your reasoning.

If this is just your feeling of what will happen, that is totally fine, but then you need to present it as such. You make great contributions to TMC in the form of pre-market charts and action reports, so people will err on the side of trusting you. This makes it even more important to be careful about how you present your opinions, and to provide the data, assumptions, and reasoning used to come to them.

 

[StealthP3D]

Green has advised that autopilot assist app has been activated. Not sure what that is exactly but looks cool:

Playing_autopilot_full

That looks like it might just be a tool to assist the developers.

But it also shows just how far they have come and how close they are getting. It's unbelievably stunning how they weave all that data together into some pretty decent driving! Even though I know they are leaning most heavily on AI it's just mind-boggling how they have been able to bring it all together as they have without more glitches and totally stupid behavior (on a more regular basis).

This rapid advancement towards FSD really complicates matters for people who might be tempted to trade in and out of the stock. Because there is no way to know how much of this FSD is being priced in and how much might just be a temporary inclusion squeeze. And upcoming production and delivery numbers, battery development and production ramp, factory progress, solar ramp, possible product updates/announcements - there is more going on here than I've ever seen from one company! Which probably means some of the really good stuff could get lost in the noise temporarily.

If the overall macro market holds together methinks some large current Tesla shareholders/funds may soon (two weeks to two months) find themselves without shares while they watch the stock zoom away from them. This is not a prediction so much as a possibility.

 

[StealthP3D]

"Some assumptions?" That's the understatement of the year isn't it? I can sort of agree on the model of these two curves existing and having an intersection which ends up being where the market, all things considered, price the shares, but how on earth did you calculate the slope of the curves. And why are they straight lines and not some more complex function???

It must be some highly proprietary trading/charting formulas.

 

[StealthP3D]

I think we all know you meant "untenable demand curve", but why is it untenable? Secondly, the supply curve should be logarithmic not linear, since there are only 760million shares in the free float, and some of those are held by retail investors and some funds that would "never sell".

That occurred to me but I couldn't really get it to make sense that way either.

I like "untentable" better.

 

[StealthP3D]

2) the irrational bulls who dream that Elon has been hiding cars in underground bunkers or whatever and will spring a huge surprise and announce the recently delivered Model Y's can hover and travel through time after an upcoming software update released on the last day of the quarter, and predict wild beats, which are ultimately detrimental to Tesla's fundamental goals.

I try to read every post but it looks like I've been missing the really good stuff!

In any case, the most common mistake most TSLA bulls have made over the last year is to not be bullish enough!

 

[dww12]

Model of Supply and Demand for TSLA shares:

View attachment 617845

The point where the supply and deman curves intersect is the equilibrium SP, which in theory occurs after some hysteresis, but in practice equilibrium is never reached because of other events, ie:

• Q4 P&D
• FSD Beta
• Model S refresh
• Giga Shanghai Phase 3

This chart is produced from actual data, given some assumptions.

I think those lines and slopes are wrong. I think the supply curve (for this week) is an exponential, staying fairly flat but approaching infinity at a very high price. The demand is going to be independent of price and increasing all week, and there are a lot of non-normal factors feeding this.

My personal data point. I don’t want to sell my shares, but actually CAN’T because I’ll have too much short term capitol gains. This is because I got caught trading my shares after the March CV19 scare and have no long term shares to risk losing. The price would have to go to several thousand to make it worth the risk of selling for me. I don’t think I am alone here. Any other stock, any other time I think I would take a 30%-50% gain and move on, or hope I could trade it. I learned my lesson. I’ll lose MY shares.

 

[StealthP3D]

I think those lines and slopes are wrong. I think the supply curve (for this week) is an exponential, staying fairly flat but approaching infinity at a very high price. The demand is going to be independent of price and increasing all week, and there are a lot of non-normal factors feeding this.

My personal data point. I don’t want to sell my shares, but actually CAN’T because I’ll have too much short term capitol gains. This is because I got caught trading my shares after the March CV19 scare and have no long term shares to risk losing. The price would have to go to several thousand to make it worth the risk of selling for me. I don’t think I am alone here. Any other stock, any other time I think I would take a 30%-50% gain and move on, or hope I could trade it. I learned my lesson. I’ll lose MY shares.

I don't see the "investor sentiment" curve for non-index funds charted there. And how can we plot this in 3D with a moving time scale? I think we are getting close to solving this problem - we just need a little more data.

If we could use Artificial Intelligence to solve it we would have a leg up on the big players...Err, wait, don't they already use AI?

 

[dww12]

Rumors on twitter that they have made several 4680 Ys.

 

[dww12]

 

[Green Pete]

I'm at the point where I wish these types of leaks wouldn't happen or wouldn't get noticed. It's not good for anything.

 

[WarpedOne]

I'm at the point where I wish these types of leaks wouldn't happen or wouldn't get noticed. It's not good for anything.

Some ID.x will end up waiting longer for someone to take 'em home...

 

[ByeByeJohnny]

I don't see the "investor sentiment" curve for non-index funds charted there. And how can we plot this in 3D with a moving time scale? I think we are getting close to solving this problem - we just need a little more data.

If we could use Artificial Intelligence to solve it we would have a leg up on the big players...Err, wait, don't they already use AI?

Once the creator stops dodging and explains to us amateurs it will all be clear for everyone.

 

[cliffski]

I wouldn't be THAT surprised to see 4680 cells in a model Y very soon. Note that at battery day their presentation was 'this is what we are planning' not 'we just thought of this yesterday but haven't any clue how to do it'. Remember how many times battery day got pushed back and back and back? They could well be much further along with this than we realized, and elon is over-focusing on the issue of making millions of them rather than thousands.
If they only have the capacity to make a few thousand Y 4680s, then they may well do it, to get some real-world customer validation that it works as expected in real world conditions.

 

[avoigt]

View attachment 617874 View attachment 617875

People seem to forget that Elon said at battery day that vehicles with 4680 are driving since May and that was back in September.

No surprise if it's now 17 of those

No news

 

[wnorris]

Fund manager loses job shorting Tesla. Hopefully this starts a trend.

Without a Clunie – the fund manager who shorted Tesla is shown the door - Master Investor

"Over the last three years it has been the worst performing of the 108 funds in the Targeted Absolute Return sector with a loss of 23.7%, which is well below its objective of generating positive absolute returns over a rolling three year period. Shorting Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) and Scottish Mortgage (LON:SMT), two of the year’s best performing stocks, didn’t exactly help, with assets under management shrinking from £1.2bn to £165m over the last 12 months. "

 

[Lycanthrope]

Yesterday pre-pre-market volume was low, today it hardly has a pulse, never seen it so low.

The calm before the storm, I guess.

 

[Tes La Ferrari]

Yesterday pre-pre-market volume was low, today it hardly has a pulse, never seen it so low.

The calm before the storm, I guess.

Can’t believe only 892 shares have traded hands, hours into European market opening.

Has volume ever been this low?

 

[strago13]

Can’t believe only 892 shares have traded hands, hours into European market opening.

Has volume ever been this low?

I am showing 25,050 as of this writing. Still very, very low.

Tesla, Inc. Common Stock (TSLA) Pre-Market Quotes

 

[Lycanthrope]

Can’t believe only 892 shares have traded hands, hours into European market opening.

Has volume ever been this low?

I am showing 25,050 as of this writing. Still very, very low.

Tesla, Inc. Common Stock (TSLA) Pre-Market Quotes

So the question is, are people buying, but nobody's selling, or is no body selling...

If you see what I mean