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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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"Tesla Stock" was one of the top 20 most Googled search terms of 2020:

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(Perhaps the right thread to continue on this topic. Taking the perspective of share of Tesla in TAM.)
I used to have the same view until I started seeing other EVs, particularly chinese EVs finding customers.
Lucid is perhaps the only player as of now who are good and efficiency, which influences the battery costs which influences the cost of the car. Sure scale is necessary, but going by where Nio and the likes I do see decent chance of someone like Lucid being able to get to scale. If Lucid can't make it, I wonder what does it take for any player besides Tesla and some of the very low budget cars in China, to make it.
And this here is what gives us an unfair advantage over the market, I believe. Below was a little something I wrote couple of months ago. TL;DR: You need a second Elon Musk to compete with Tesla.

THE FUTILE JOURNEY TO FIND THE NEXT TESLA
I find it sad that 99% of so called investors have no idea who Elon Musk is. I attribute this to the nasty media attack on Musk and the general ignorance/shallowness of the average investor. Now that I'm done insulting you, allow me to give you a glimpse into the man Neil de Grasse Tyson called the most important human on Earth:
Born in South Africa, Musk began reading at a young age. By 9, he has already finished the Encyclopedia Britanica and countless other books. He's said to have photographic memory and can recite rocket formulas from conversation with SpaceX employees.
At 32 year old, he has created and sold Zip2 and PayPal, pocketing nearly $200M.
He proceeded to split that money into SpaceX and Tesla, challenging Lockheed Martin, Boeing, the entire automotive industry.
SpaceX has now become the leading space exploration company, undercutting existing launch companies by 80% per launch.
Tesla is now worth nearly the entire automotive industry combined.
SpaceX and Tesla are the top 2 dream employers for graduating engineering students. They only employ the brightest and hungriest engineers.
Musk is known for working his employees to the bones, often on a 90 hour weekly schedule.
Most employees and associates, even enemies and fired employees, mention his name with respect and admiration. Musk is loved, feared, and worshipped by his employees.
Whenever an engineer tells him something cant be done, they would be fired from the team with Musk assuming the employee's job and finishing it.
SpaceX and Tesla, therefore, have the highest risk taking attitude in the world. Thats how they beat companies once worth 100x their valuation.
Musk's philosophy is called the first principle: taking every problem down to the physic level. Whatever works, do it. No politics. No committees. Only relentless trials and errors until a solution has been reach. Rinse and repeat on a perpentual pursuit of the cheapest way to make the best products to accelerate the world's transitition to renewable energy.
So why is this important!?
Much like how thinking in First Principle has brought SpaceX and Tesla to a cult status, investors should also use it to study a company.
It amuses me when people think, now that GM, Ford, VW, etc. have promised to pour billions of dollar into researching EVs, they will become worthwhile competitors to Tesla. Equally sad are the new crop of EV startups: NKLA, SPAQ, HYLN, WKHS, etc. Some think money is the key. Some think experience. Infrastructure. Batteries.
Wrong.
Dead wrong.
If any of these was the key, SpaceX and Tesla would never have survived. Both basically started out in little garages. Musk came close to running out of money amid 2008. While GM filed for bankruptcy and Ford put up its blue oval emblem for collateral for a loan, Tesla survived with all of its dignity. While Mitt Romney called Tesla a loser in the 2008 debate with Barrack Obama, Tesla paid back the governtment loan it took early, every cent with interest.
No.
The culture is the key. It is simply unfathomable for the average so called investor what a team of brightest minds working under the most ruthless leader in the world could accomplish. And who sit atop that culture? Musk.
As Marc Tarpening, Tesla co-founder said, you dont want to compete against Musk. He will crush you totally in every aspect.
So anyone looking for the next Tesla, do you have the next Elon Musk? If not, you will fail.
It also amuses me that the number one reason anyone would go out and look for the next Tesla is that they think they miss the boat on TSLA.
Let me paint you a picture: you gave Elon Musk $200M and the Great Recession and he built the two most valuable companies, each in its respective industry. Today, Tesla has first dib on engineering talents, factories and stores in every continent, and 15 ****ing billion dollars in the bank, and you think Tesla is at the end of its growth curve? This is just the ramp up stage to a multi trillion dollar company within a decade.
Wake up. There will not be the next Tesla. Its already here. Its called Tesla. You have front row ticket to this significant piece of history. Its your choice whether to join it or just watch.
 
Model of Supply and Demand for TSLA shares:

View attachment 617845

The point where the supply and deman curves intersect is the equilibrium SP, which in theory occurs after some hysteresis, but in practice equilibrium is never reached because of other events, ie:
  • Q4 P&D
  • FSD Beta
  • Model S refresh
  • Giga Shanghai Phase 3
This chart is produced from actual data, given some assumptions.
Are you sure the red and blue lines haven't been reversed?
 
As far as I know he hasn't really said the stock is overvalued, except maybe once for the very short term, he's said the price is too high. Big difference.

Exactly. Musk is always very precise with his words and it's important to really take note of EXACTLY what he says, not what is implied.

Besides, that tweet was just to give people a heads-up there would be a stock split announced on August 11th :rolleyes:
 
Besides, that tweet was just to give people a heads-up there would be a stock split announced on August 11th :rolleyes:

Here's what Elon said recently about the SP from an interview published last weekend in Die Welt - which I posted here on TMC Saturday. As usual, leaving enough ambiguity for the SEC, note the vague "in the future" clause. And here we are reading tea leaves in these pronouncements, like Alan Greenspan's or Mao's words back in the days.
...

Mathias Döpfner: This means the current stock price of Tesla is justified. Nevertheless you once declared that the stock price was too high. Why is that?

Elon: The stock market follows a weird logic. It is a little bit like asking a manic depressive to value your company. There are good days and there are bad days, while your company is, itself, fundamentally always the same. In my opinion, does Tesla have a good chance of being worth that much in the future? Yes! And maybe even more. (my emphasis, I know you guys are speed reading)
...
Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the 2019-2020 Investors' Roundtable
 
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Good job. Now the FSD legislation. I don’t have a Tesla yet (unfortunately, even never had a chance to sit in one), but for the sake of everybody here and all future non-traffic victims, get it done asap.

Yeah, but wifey works in the Environment Directorate, I've no idea which one is responsible for the FSD restrictions...

If anyone out there does know, let me know and I'll see if I can make some noise (not that it would change much, but might make us feel better).
 
As far as I know he hasn't really said the stock is overvalued, except maybe once for the very short term, he's said the price is too high. Big difference.
He acknowledged the stock value is priced for excellent execution and growing profitability.

The stock price expectation about Elon Musk performance is priced as the same expectation Elon Musk has for his employees.
 
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Premarket OT:
I have 2030 as a date to sell TSLA. But I often think about the acceleration needed for transitioning the world to sustainable energy.
Unfortunately, there is really not much time.
So please remember to do your part, as you see fit. You do you.
But please do something, because at this point every action counts.
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Premarket OT:
I have 2030 as a date to sell TSLA. But I often think about the acceleration needed for transitioning the world to sustainable energy.
Unfortunately, there is really not much time.
So please remember to do your part, as you see fit. You do you.
But please do something, because at this point every action counts.
View attachment 617914

The best thing Musk has done was aligning Teslas research/financial goals with its sustainability goals.

A huge impact to climate change would be electric cars + autonomy (because total % of miles driven by EV vs. ICE will go up very dramatically through autonomy) + breakthrough solar/battery/hvacr in the housing sector.

I would expect Tesla starting to have a noticeable impact in bending the climate change curve in the 2026/2027 timeframe. We would there see about 10 million yearly production output from Tesla and about 15% of global miles driven with autonomous EVs (still growing quickly at that point).

This is of course all contingent on the still open question if slowing CO² would actually also slow/decrease the global temperature... (I accept the reverse relationship as a given)