Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[generalenthu]

Option bets continue to increase though this cannot be taken as evidence of the players foreseeing a big jump. This has to be seen in the context of other metrics like IV which has been going down. So clearly demand for new options tapered off a bit perhaps driven by the price action.

Also there was some speculation on twitter that the index fund guys might have entered into contracts with trading desks to transfer stock at x days of VWAP or Friday's close, which means there might be smaller then expected trading on the exchange. But that still leaves open questions on who has the balance sheet to hold these mega positions.

In any case, here is a tweet that takes a contra position on a friday spike. And the usual update on delta exposure.

 

[FrankSG]

Why do you think it has to be speculators and front-runners selling? TSLA is up 600% this year. There are almost certainly many institutional holders who want to sell but have been waiting for the S&P inclusion to do so. They could have deals in place to sell massive quantities of shares to S&P funds in dark pools on Dec 18. Short sellers could have similar deals in place to provide shares - I doubt they've just given up on TSLA..

I was replying to a post that talked specifically about front-runners.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Then wouldn’t you just buy. Right now knowing you had to buy Friday wouldn’t it make sense to buy some OTM options just in case it ran over 700.

You have to remember, the goal of INDEX funds is simply to match the S&P 500 index as closely as possible. They DO NOT benefit by trying to beat the index; that's BENCHMARK funds.

 

[JusRelax]

There are around 200M shares available to short. Anyone can borrow them and sell them to S&P funds, then hopefully buy them back later at a lower price on the open market.

If, as a single entity, I had 200M shares to short of a company, would I want to short when I knew 100M shares of a company would have to be bought, or would I short when there would be less forced buying?

EDIT: My point is, I don't know what kind of incentive funds would be able to provide to shorts to sell into their forced buying.

 

[joh01652]

I mean technically.........he said Berlin would be first to use ALL of those things in conjunction

Yes, that's how I interpret that tweet as well--in conjunction. They may roll out those different technologies in a piecemeal fashion to some vehicles before Berlin production begins.

Personally, I think it would be safer to test out those new developments at a smaller scale before it's used all at once in Berlin, but I'm no engineer, so what do I know...

 

[kanweg]

OK, ticker numbers are boring now, so let’s dig up some Dutch data for December (total at 14).

Model 3 1976. Total BEV 6404. Total cars 11201. In whichever ranking you look, the Model 3 has at least twice the deliveries of the runner up.

 

[Mike Smith]

If, as a single entity, I had 200M shares to short of a company, would I want to short when I knew 100M shares of a company would have to be bought, or would I short when there would be less forced buying?

You'd sell them on Dec 18. The best time to sell something is when everyone is buying. Longs aren't the only ones who see this whole S&P situation happening..

 

[JusRelax]

You'd sell them on Dec 18. The best time to sell something is when everyone is buying. Longs aren't the only ones who see this whole S&P situation happening..

Hmm.. maybe you're right. For some reason I get the feeling that isn't the case with shorters.. many of whom I believe are more manipulative than investors and would want to force an unnatural drop of the stock price to be able to buy back in lower. With forced buying, that manipulative drop wouldn't happen.

 

[Right_Said_Fred]

With volume this low and no upward price pressure it doesn’t feel like the index funds are already buying today (the ones that are allowed to do so). And speculators that didn’t chicken out last week will probably not be flipping their shares at this level, knowing that the real demand still has to come. If I were them, I’d wait and see what the next few days bring. But who am I?

 

[woodisgood]

I’ve seen some folks wondering why it would be in the best interest of a large front-runner/speculator to sell to an index fund at a prearranged price.

To that I would simply counter that the world is a bit larger than the profits on one trade, and such backdoor deals can involve all sorts of negotiations, incentives, favors, and debts that have absolutely zilch to do with TSLA.

There is a reason S&P took its sweet time with this unprecedented inclusion, aside from what we believe to be stupidity.

 

[Mike Smith]

I was replying to a post that talked specifically about front-runners.

I think the post you were responding to was actually asking about the potential for pre-planned sales in dark pools. I absolutely think this is happening, and it gives an explanation for why S&P decided to do the inclusion in a single day after talking to the S&P tracking funds. I'm guessing they were told by many that that they already know where their shares are coming from - that they won't be buying them on the open market. It would also explain why volume has been so low.

 

[2daMoon]

OK, ticker numbers are boring now, so let’s dig up some Dutch data for December (total at 14).

Model 3 1976. Total BEV 6404. Total cars 11201. In whichever ranking you look, the Model 3 has at least twice the deliveries than the runner up.

Clearly, you haven't taken into account how an outspoken former Lehman Brothers VP (G. Johnson) has shown indisputably that demand for Tesla products is and has been falling for some time now.



But, yeah, ticker numbers are boring today.

 

[M|S|M MYP]

In other news:
Without a Clunie – the fund manager who shorted Tesla is shown the door - Master Investor

 

[Knightshade]

I think the post you were responding to was actually asking about the potential for pre-planned sales in dark pools. I absolutely think this is happening, and it gives an explanation for why S&P decided to do the inclusion in a single day after talking to the S&P tracking funds. I'm guessing they were told by many that that they already know where their shares are coming from - that they won't be buying them on the open market. It would also explain why volume has been so low.

I've yet to have anyone explain why the big firms would do this.

Index funds exist to mirror the index, not beat it.

So they don't care what they paid for their shares.

Non-index funds (the folks selling in this conspiracy theory) care very deeply about how much they buy and sell shares for.

So why would they sell them below the market rate?

They have no incentive, even if owned by the same master bank, to do this...and a significant one (loss of at the market profit) by doing it.


(EDIT- unless your theory is all these sales are going to happen at the market price at the time, just without going through the market? I suppose there's value in that- but most of the twitter conspiracy folks talking about this are going on about how it's a trick to get "cheaper" shares for the S&P index funds which is a nonsensical talking point)

 

[JusRelax]

Some instances of where the FSD beta is not ready for primetime. I have no idea how often these peculiarities occur, but maybe this is why the FSD Beta is currently only released to a select few for now:

 

[StealthP3D]

People keep citing "short sellers" as a source of inclusion window shares to indexers. How exactly does that work?

They borrow the shares from longs and sell them to funds, basically betting they can buy them back later for less. It will probably be one of the few windows where a lot of them might actually make money on TSLA.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Personally, I think it would be safer to test out those new developments at a smaller scale before it's used all at once in Berlin, but I'm no engineer, so what do I know...

Yeah, Tesla kinda has tested each of those individual technologies separately:

• Fremont: smaller 2-piece rear aluminum casting
• Fremont: large 1-piece casting / Gigapress
• Giga Shanghai: up to 8 Gigapresses intended for Model Y
• Structural pack: least risk? Prototype Plaid 'S'
• 3-D paint shop: actually purchasing tech from an Italian company
• 4680 bty cells: risk reduction and tech devel. underway at Kato Rd.

So I think it'll be fine, but Elon is correct to advice some caution. The exact time frame doesn't matter when Tesla is already profiable going forward, as long as the end product from Berlin is good.

Personally, I think Texas and Berlin will race to the finish line.

 

[Curt Renz]

Benzinga - 48 minutes ago: Tesla Changes Up Solar Offerings, Renaming Small, Medium And Large Options

Excerpt:

Previously, Tesla had consumer-friendly sizing options when picking a solar power system: small, medium, large and extra large. But now the company has switched back to a more traditional labeling of the kW size of each system - denoting the peak power the given system is able to generate. Some customers are also seeing eight different kW rating offerings.

 

[AimStellar]

I am absolutely livid.

Wired funds to TDAmeritrade during/just after today's first freefall.

Then I watched the second freefall unfold. Placed a limit order, 100 shares @ $625 even -- very close to the amount I had wired.

Order executes. "Wow."

You SOLD 100 shares @ 625

I've yet to have anyone explain why the big firms would do this.

Index funds exist to mirror the index, not beat it.

So they don't care what they paid for their shares.

Non-index funds (the folks selling in this conspiracy theory) care very deeply about how much they buy and sell shares for.

So why would they sell them below the market rate?

They have no incentive, even if owned by the same master bank, to do this...and a significant one (loss of at the market profit) by doing it.


(EDIT- unless your theory is all these sales are going to happen at the market price at the time, just without going through the market? I suppose there's value in that- but most of the twitter conspiracy folks talking about this are going on about how it's a trick to get "cheaper" shares for the S&P index funds which is a nonsensical talking point)

What evidence re: selling under market rate?

 

[StealthP3D]

Some instances of where the FSD beta is not ready for primetime. I have no idea how often these peculiarities occur, but maybe this is why the FSD Beta is currently only released to a select few for now:

Obviously FSD is not ready for primetime or we would all have it in our cars and be partying like it's 1999!