Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[ReflexFunds]

Actually, if the new V3 architecture can deliver the observed 256KW to a car at/near 0% SOC, that would be 256KW/350V/46P = 15.9A

Where do you get 350V? I used 250kW and 4.2 volt max per cell and 96 series to get to 403V at max.

Whichever Volt number, one correction to my above calculation, there should only be 36 parallel in the SR pack, so if LR cells are at the amp limit with V3, then short range max charge rate should be 200kW.

 

[mongo]

If you look at the INPUT power you see the real limitation: 950V X 380A = 361kW. Assuming roughly 95% efficiency, that's about 342kW, so the 460kW output is never possible.

Isn't that 3 phase though? 950V (line to line) X 380 A @ three phase = 625 kW input.
Nope, DC input, thanks @MP3Mike

 

[Artful Dodger]

Thanks for the heads-up, @anthonyj Let's get Ihor's tweet here in the permanent record:

Ihor Dusaniwsky‏ @ihors3

$TSLA short interest is $7.41 bn; 26.81 mm shares shorted; 21.18% of float; 0.30% stock borrow fee. #Tesla short sellers have gotten out of neutral after a quiet Feb. & early March. Shares shorted are up 1.12 million shares this week, +4.35% as #TSLA's stock price fell 11.8%

 

[jhm]

So two scenarios in my mind:

1) Full refreshes are imminent and the cars will have the latest and greatest technology and remain the flagship brands
2) The S & X go the way of the Roadster, maybe get some cosmetic updates, but the focus of the company shifts to the 3, Y and Pickup because that is where the growth is

I would like it to be number 1, but I wonder if they have the cash and people to do that and continue expansion of 3 production, launch the Y, launch the Semi and launch the Pickup. The S is dominating its segment which is great, but it also means there is no place for it to go, growth-wise. In fact, with Taycan and others starting to show up, it will likely give back some ground. In light of that, emotion aside, it seems to make sense to prioritize spend for the models that still have pretty unlimited upside at this point and made come back and revisit the S & X in a few years once the other models are established and FCF is less of an issue.

I think that option 1 is critical for the mission. To really accelerate the transition to EVs, we need segment leaders in every segment. If Tesla were to withdraw the Model S, that would provide enable the large luxury sedan market to retreat on developing any EVs for that segment. Tesla would be conceding that segment back to ICE. So even if there is not much upside potential for the Model S in that segment, it is critical to the mission that Tesla continues to apply competitive pressure within that segment.

Now the counterpoint to this is that Tesla also need to apply competitive pressure within other segments especially those which the Model Y, pickup truck or semi would address. Absolutely we must venture into these areas, but I do not believe that is incompatible with continuing to keep the Model S and X fresh and competitive. Quite the opposite, Tesla very much benefits from having the stable cash flow that these models provide. There is enormous risk with any ramp up of a new model and it can throw the company into a "bet the company" proposition as was the case with the Model 3. Betting the company is not a reliable way to advance the mission, because it means that one bad bet can destroy the whole mission. We need the S, X and 3 to be a very stable cash engine to support venturing into new segments. The Model 3 is not yet a strong and stable enough cash engine to safely cut the S or the X. Upgrading batteries for S and X is a much lower risk investment than launching an entirely new model. So I would prefer to see that investment made before any new models come out.

Especially if we are going to grow on internally generated cash flow, we need to be good stewards of stable cash engines that we have.

 

[humbaba]

Your Tesla Account page's History section should have a detailed list of your Supercharging history, down to the minute.

nope. Not a thing. AFAICT this is due to the 6 months free supercharging. Last supercharging session is "never"

 

[Pezpunk]

But then they said this: I love my car (after just being stuck in mud late at night). It’s totally ruined my other car for me. I don’t want to ever drive it again.

This is not a ‘car’ person. Has never loved a car before and doesn’t know half the things the 3 can do. Has never used EAP features and even bought FSD when they purchased the car.

(apologies, i'm behind, trying to catch up...)

but yes, this. To paraphrase Rogan, when you drive the Tesla for a while and then go back to an ICE car, even if you don't care about the environment, you just say to yourself "gas cars are STUPID." but the problem is you can't tell people that. they don't believe you. it's one of those things that has to be experienced first hand, behind the wheel. (and i agree with an earlier poster that being the driver is much more important than merely being a passenger).

so, I do truly hope Tesla is not ending test drives, and works to get the word out where and how one can take one. And I'm also encouraged by the roughly 500,000 new test drive locations and part time salespeople that Tesla is acquiring over the course of this year.

 

[ZachF]

Thanks for the heads-up, @anthonyj Let's get Ihor's tweet here in the permanent record:

Ihor Dusaniwsky‏ @ihors3

$TSLA short interest is $7.41 bn; 26.81 mm shares shorted; 21.18% of float; 0.30% stock borrow fee. #Tesla short sellers have gotten out of neutral after a quiet Feb. & early March. Shares shorted are up 1.12 million shares this week, +4.35% as #TSLA's stock price fell 11.8%

View attachment 383895

So it looks like the dump below $300 was caused by a short/bear attack.

 

[Remus]

The difference is that a test drive has zero commitment behind it. Perhaps I am missing something, but even if you turn your car in 7 days, you are probably looking at being locked up for a couple of weeks:
1) Original loan needs to process with the lender once you take delivery
2) Tesla needs to process your return and a) pay off your loan (which means #1 needs to complete first otherwise there is no loan to payoff)
3) It's unclear what happens to your trade-in if you had one. Do they give it back to you? Do they cut you a check for the trade in value? Will they be willing to do that before they have flipped it?
4) All this needs to be reflected with the credit agencies so the loan is cleared off your credit report and you can now apply for a new car loan--unsure what impact, if any, that would all have on your credit score
5) Until all this clears, perhaps you have no car since you traded in the old one and still don't have a new one

Are we sure now service center can't offer test drive?

Even if they don't do it now, how hard it is for Tesla to change that in the future? And why is that a big deal?

And seriously I don't understand what's all the fuss about test drive? I got into U.S. as a poor student starting from an used corolla, then Taurus, Audi a4 then q7. I seriously don't think they make much difference driving wise. Now I buy cars based on features and price.

My wife test drove the model S in 2016, hated it since she was not used to the peddle. I bought the model 3 kinda behind her back now she is hoarding the car.

I actually asked a lot of my friends and many of them share this view, the short spin of the car out of the dealership tell us next to nothing.

 

[Nocturnal]

IDK about you guys, but V3 supercharging is a pretty big deal. 75 miles in 5 minutes is close enough to gut the people who swear that "I can fill up my gas tank in 2 minutes". Those people seem to completely forget the time spent deviating from your route, pulling into the station, getting out, swiping your card, filling, getting back in, merging back into traffic etc.

If they can roll out V3 reasonably quickly that just makes the Tesla supercharging moat that much deeper.

Actually the Model 3 is so efficient that people are reporting that it takes at least 2 hours of freeway driving to get the pack up to full Supercharging temperature. (And that may be after preheating the car.)

That's not true at all. Even in 5 degree weather my battery is at full temp for supercharging much sooner than that. I've done several long trips in very cold weather with mine and I've never had an issue with cold battery and supercharging.

 

[MP3Mike]

Isn't that 3 phase though? 950V (line to line) X 380 A @ three phase = 625 kW input.

Nope, look at the label again. The input is 950vdc.

 

[SunCatcher]

Mine: The screen goes black. In the background you start to hear the sounds of traffic. Slowly, one by one, the OEM emblems start to appear on the black background. The traffic gets louder, then you hear sounds of oil refiners, the sounds of fracking. Then someone is coughing, another person having an asthma attack and finally when all the OEM emblems are on the screen you hear only the sound of a hospital ventilator.

The screen goes black and the sounds fade. You start to hear the babbling of a brook, birds twittering. A light breeze. Then the sound of a child playing. The Tesla emblem appears on the screen. You hear a baby cooing while the mother softly sings a lullaby.

The end.

THIS. Spot on. I would only add at the end, after the Tesla emblem appears; "Not an AD. This is a public service announcement."

 

[jerry33]

(apologies, i'm behind, trying to catch up...)

but yes, this. To quote Rogan, when you drive the Tesla for a while and then go back to an ICE car, even if you don't care about the environment, you just say to yourself "gas cars are STUPID." but the problem is you can't tell people that. they don't believe you. it's one of those things that has to be experienced first hand, behind the wheel. (and i agree with an earlier poster that being the driver is much more important than merely being a passenger).

so, I do truly hope Tesla is not ending test drives, and works to get the word out where and how one can take one. And I'm also encouraged by the roughly 500,000 new test drive locations and part time salesmen that Tesla is acquiring over the course of this year.

In almost every demonstration I give, at the end of it there is a "Once you drive a Tesla for a month and then go back to your old car, you'll think it's broken. You might not notice much of a change going from old to new--you'll notice some, but maybe not much--but when you go back, the difference is day and night".

 

[mblakele]

nope. Not a thing. AFAICT this is due to the 6 months free supercharging. Last supercharging session is "never"

I value many of your posts, but shouldn't this discussion be in Model 3: Battery & Charging instead?

If you don't want to start a new thread, this one seems to have some MR SCv2 discussion: Model 3 MR charges at 32 amp vs LR at 48 amp

 

[SteveG3]

Wondering about the extent of the improvement to V2 charging times.

Is it likely that in addition to the peak increasing to 145 kW, the taper curve of V2 will now move up to (or closer to) the taper curve of V3 for the portion of the V3 curve where charging is at 145 kW or less?

The taper curve has nothing to due with the supercharger. Taper is defined by the car, as a command sent from its BMS to the supercharger.

As long as the particular DC fast charger is capable of delivering the requested Amps and volts, their is no limit on the charger side.

Taper comes from the car.

I figured it was a given that the car would need an OTA update to do this.

Still wondering, is there any limitation in the V2 SuperChargers that would prevent Tesla from allowing the charging rate for V2's to match V3 from the point V3 tapers to 145 kW and thereafter? If not, this looks like V2 will show an improvement considerably beyond what I think is generally expected at this point (for Model 3s anyhow).

 

[Pras]

“A Tesla investor explains the final straw that made him sell his entire stake in the company”.

The closure of the stores was the reason. What a short sighted fool.

A Tesla investor explains the final straw that made him sell his entire stake in the company — Business Insider

He is a fool same as the chief accounting officer who have had become the CFO of Tesla now.

 

[anthonyj]

Hasn't he been saying that there has been no TSLA shorting all week? How do they add 1.12 million shares to the short position if they haven't been shorting?

• 3/1: "#Tesla Down 7% on Long Selling Not Short Selling. $TSLA short interest is $8.22 billion; 25.69 million shares shorted;"
• 3/5: "$TSLA short interest is $7.31 billion; 25.62 million shares shorted; 20.24% of float; 0.30% stock borrow fee. #Tesla shares shorted are basically flat for the year, up only 47k,"
• 3/6: "What $TSLA short covering ???? #Tesla shares shorted are actually up by 47k year-to-date (virtually flat), the short side is not pushing the stock price up or down in 2019"
• 3/7: "$TSLA short interest is $7.41 bn; 26.81 mm shares shorted; 21.18% of float; 0.30% stock borrow fee. #Tesla short sellers have gotten out of neutral after a quiet Feb. & early March. Shares shorted are up 1.12 million shares this week,"

Sadly I don't think I can trust his data anymore. Either he has been wrong all week, he has been lying, or he is misrepresenting things. If yesterday shorted shares were only up 47k this year, and today they are up 1.12 million shares, that is major shorting yesterday, not this week.

I think that the volume of selling was so large that it was hard to differentiate between the selling between longs and shorts. Without a doubt, institutional investors sold. Retail investor positions increased. Could some institutional investor be accumulating while others dumped? Yes, ARK has been buying up shares lately. They are small in comparison to T Rowe or Fidelity though

Why would large holders sell their $TSLA? Well, 9 days before the announcement of store closures, Tesla released their annual shareholder letter and stated that they would be increasing retail stores. Disagree all you want, but that is 100% a red flag. Doesn’t matter if it’s the right or wrong thing to do, it signals poor planning

Ihor is highly regarded around here, until it doesn’t line up with the ultra-bullish narrative

 

[jhm]

There is also the alpha male thing that is a deeply embedded thing. Making the most noise is one factor in establishing an alpha position in a group. More importantly, an individual that perhaps couldn’t outperform on the basis of strength alone, finds an object or objects to amplify their ability to display dominate behavior by using it to make loud noise in an attempt to intimidate.

Chimps and Gorillas display the strategy by using cans and other objects that they bang together to make a lot of noise.

I am louder than you is a basic basic primate display, just no with an ICE or Harley.

And yea some folks can’t give it up. Hardcore wiring is tough to beat. When talking with someone who feels this way, I differentiate between your daily driver vs your passion/ hobby/ entertainment.

Fire Away!

That's exactly why my Model S has testicles.

 

[anthonyj]

So it looks like the dump below $300 was caused by a short/bear attack.

Wasn’t entirely caused by the shorts, a lot of hyped up traders bought tons of stock when Elon tweeted Tuesday night about “some Tesla news”. They got wiped out at the $300 mark, shorts and concerned tutes selling only made it worse. A perfect storm. Good thing is that shorts will have to buy back in

 

[M3Rider]

Why are we not in red today?

It can't be SC V3 - that I know. Did some analyst say something?

 

[Pezpunk]

Why are we not in red today?

because the stock is trading at a fraction of its actual value and shorts and FUD can only do so much?