Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[goinfraftw]

Analysts do not have to value in anything according to their own special brand of stock "valuation"
Lots (in fact most, with a few exceptions - ARK, Chamath) do not value in anything but the cars produced when creating targets and valuation for TSLA.
We get to value it though as our own aggregators of our personal investment thesis'

Long story short - no

...I'm pretty sure forward facing multiples of 10% profit growth with software sales are priced in at this point with the valuation as high as it is. Even Elon Musk has mentioned this in the last quarterly earnings call.

When app-based companies release out a new software feature, there is typically a market reaction to it. From there on, the market reaction is based on growth and engagement onto that feature. With FSD, its the first major software feature, outside of "Track Mode" and "Connectivity", that has the ability for a major influx of immediate, consistent subscription-based revenue on the company.

Just wondering if the analysts are catching up en masse and the market reaction is going to follow once FSD is in wide release...

 

[asburgers]

Shush guys. Auntie Cathie's on CNBC with much love for TSLA and PLTR.

 

[Chunky Jr.]

It seems like Tesla is amassing quite the bag of tricks to juice earnings when the time is right. Deferred revenue from FSD, gains from BTC, and that crazy tax stuff I don't really understand. Could be a serious short burn when some of those tricks are deployed.

 

[AimStellar]

First segment notes

1. Tesla: ARK still adding shares to TSLA position, including today
2. Bitcoin: Cathie predicts Bitcoin ETF in near future; notes incoming SEC Chair previously taught class on blockchain @ MIT
3. Palantir: ARK added 1.5m shares of PLTR yesterday; Palantir/CEO Alex Karp "speak our language," on same page as ARK Invest

 

[UltradoomY]

...I'm pretty sure forward facing multiples of 10% profit growth with software sales are priced in at this point with the valuation as high as it is. Even Elon Musk has mentioned this in the last quarterly earnings call.

When app-based companies release out a new software feature, there is typically a market reaction to it. From there on, the market reaction is based on growth and engagement onto that feature. With FSD, its the first major software feature, outside of "Track Mode" and "Connectivity", that has the ability for a major influx of immediate, consistent subscription-based revenue on the company.

Just wondering if the analysts are catching up en masse and the market reaction is going to follow once FSD is in wide release...

I totally understand what you are saying and agree that there is a lot of that priced in - your question was if they were forced to add that in to their valuation - which is a no.

 

[M|S|M MYP]

It seems like Tesla is amassing quite the bag of tricks to juice earnings when the time is right. Deferred revenue from FSD, gains from BTC, and that crazy tax stuff I don't really understand. Could be a serious short burn when some of those tricks are deployed.

I dont think they can realize gains from BTC unless they sell.

 

[Zaxxon]

Are you guys forgetting FSD - close to end of the year.

For the 4th straight year!

 

[MP3Mike]

I dont think they can realize gains from BTC unless they sell.

Right, but they can sell and immediately re-buy to re-set the cost basis and realize the gains. Though I'm not sure if they would do that.

 

[jbcarioca]

Texas seems to be warming up again in a few days. Crisis averted!

Crisis was NOT averted. Please look at the damages caused both human and property.
The crisis may soon be abating but it most definitely has been and is real. It was absolutely NOT averted!

 

[zach_]

Right, but they can sell and immediately re-buy to re-set the cost basis and realize the gains. Though I'm not sure if they would do that.

To me it seems unlikely they would sell to juice earnings.

1. It just brings more unneeded scrutiny around earnings
2. Elon seems to see it as a principled stance. Buying to flip it later seems to go against that.

The most likely outcome to me seems like they just routinely trim it if it appreciates to keep BTC from being too large a % of investable cash.

 

[Captkerosene]

Make sense! Thanks.

No it doesn't.

 

[JusRelax]

To me it seems unlikely they would sell to juice earnings.

1. It just brings more unneeded scrutiny around earnings
2. Elon seems to see it as a principled stance. Buying to flip it later seems to go against that.

The most likely outcome to me seems like they just routinely trim it if it appreciates to keep BTC from being too large a % of investable cash.

Your last name wouldn't happen to be Kirkhorn, would it?

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

To me it seems unlikely they would sell to juice earnings.

1. It just brings more unneeded scrutiny around earnings
2. Elon seems to see it as a principled stance. Buying to flip it later seems to go against that.

The most likely outcome to me seems like they just routinely trim it if it appreciates to keep BTC from being too large a % of investable cash.

Pretty much what I expect to happen. If Bitcoin hits 66k, the could sell enough to recoup their initial investment. I would assume for every 50% in appreciation, they'll sell a bit to keep their bitcoin reserve in the 1.5-2 billion range

 

[Tim S]

The TX freeze is now a political talking point

https://twitter.com/AOC/status/1361902402568355841


+More Tesla Energy esp storage needed asap.

Good point by AOC...

"Gov. Abbott doesn’t seem to have a grasp on his state, so here’s a reminder: Texas runs 80-90% on fossil fuels."

 

[adiggs]

I dont think they can realize gains from BTC unless they sell.

I'd assume that the bitcoin gets marked to market each quarter for the earnings report (as I would expect any liquid asset such as this, including share ownership in other companies for instance). If I'm right then bitcoin isn't something they've got up their sleeve to use when they want to. Instead it'll move the paper value of our company up and down to the degree that changes in bitcoin change the value of the bitcoin investment.

And I'm pretty sure that those up and down moves in the bitcoin investment when marked to market go to the bottom line for GAAP accounting purposes (but I'm not an accountant or tax pro - I bet others here know one way or the other). I would expect those investment valuation impacts to be 0 on non-GAAP earnings.

 

[EVMeister]

Less Texas talk, moar share buying. STONKS.

 

[Prunesquallor]

This will certainly happen. But I'm pretty sure this cold snap will increase Solar and Powerwall sales for the informed few.

Agree. Especially if nefarious elements of the power generators turns out to be true and comes to light. The prevailing opinion will be that you can’t count on the state to provide services during times of emergency and one is on one’s own.

 

[MP3Mike]

I'd assume that the bitcoin gets marked to market each quarter for the earnings report (as I would expect any liquid asset such as this, including share ownership in other companies for instance). If I'm right then bitcoin isn't something they've got up their sleeve to use when they want to. Instead it'll move the paper value of our company up and down to the degree that changes in bitcoin change the value of the bitcoin investment.

And I'm pretty sure that those up and down moves in the bitcoin investment when marked to market go to the bottom line for GAAP accounting purposes (but I'm not an accountant or tax pro - I bet others here know one way or the other). I would expect those investment valuation impacts to be 0 on non-GAAP earnings.

This has already been covered multiple times in this thread. GAAP rules are such that Bitcoin loses are recognized immediately, but gains can only be recognized/reported after the asset has been sold.

 

[UnknownSoldier]

Only because the "indexes" don't run during after-hrs and during the pre-market.

Have a look at the drops while the Market isn't "open". This is pure abuse by priviledged market participants (with the sanction of the SEC).

The Battle of Gamestop really shed a lot of light on the dark shadows in the little seen darkest corners of Wall Street. Too bad our government is owned by the same hedge funds who abuse the market to their advantage. There's nothing fair or free about our free markets, unfortunately.

 

[Curt Renz]

ARK CEO Cathie Wood on Tesla and others

CNBC - hour ago: