Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[stealthyc]

I saw many of you mention buying on margins like 2 or 3 percent. My etrade is much higher is this normal./ I have never done so but my bank transfer takes a few days to fund my account.
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Margin rates are negotiable, depending on your portfolio size you can get that a lot lower just by asking.

 

[traxila]

I think the ten year yield double topped today for the short term, and I know you all do not want to hear this, but are you prepared for the possibility of a run at two percent next week?

You know those bond traders are always crapping in the people’s couscous.

OTOH, this is a momo market and if we have really bottomed, then look to Singuy for short term run predictions. He looking pretty good lately. You would think 650 is in the bag if macros are good next week. Too far from the 50 day to talk about making a run for it yet.

 

[WattsHappening]

Just sold 1/3rd of my TSLA
Bought 650 March 2023 calls

Love it. I sold some shares also but bought Mar 2023 400c. May do more, but increase my leverage by going with 600c or 650c like you.

 

[corduroy]

Come on $600

 

[SOULPEDL]

Got a link?

I know folks made a big deal of the "look it learned a u turn!" but when you actually looked closer you saw the failures were at like 2-3x the speed of the "success"

There was also the bus station thing- but again there were significant differences (including having a car to follow one of the more "successful" times versus the failure)

Neither appeared to demonstrate on car learning.


And indeed, that'd be an incredibly bad system because once you have 1 million cars all driving differently it's impossible to troubleshoot anything.

Ya it was the bus exit one. Random trials seemed to be the best answer earlier.

I agree, learning that fast would not be practical. But I guess there could have been a freak moment where someone was supervising at that moment and pushed him a few new bits. Minor updates do occur without our knowledge, but I highly doubt that happens while we're driving.

It's all a glimpse at Evolution, and I don't see much difference. So if an X and Y did it, would they create a Z?

 

[lklundin]

If you have something of value, someone else probably wants it. If you have something of GREAT value, then the likelihood is higher someone will want to steal it, through increasingly nefarious means if necessary.

The trick during this roller-coaster we're on is to not let go of your things of value. If you over-leverage (as we all have or have been tempted to do at various times), you make it easier for those that wish to steal from you.

It's kind of simple as that.

Indeed. It has been pointed out repeatedly how stop-loss orders are easily spotted (and thus exploited).

Can Market Makers also estimate when e.g. retailers are using more leverage than usually - i.e. when it will pay off to trigger these massive dips? Not to pick on Robinhood, but are there ways where the MMs can "work" with retail brokers to gain this kind of insight?

 

[Mengy]

Perhaps I should be more concerned than I am, but because we just lived through pretty much this exact same price action a year earlier to-the-date, I am not at all worried about Tesla.

Nah, the companies fundamentals and future prospects are immensely stronger than ever today. TSLA isn't just down, 90% of the market is down in a huge way, so the low SP isn't fazing me at all either. Later this year we'll look back at this and wish we had bought even more shares than we did!

Long term Tesla is looking far better than it ever has, and this market correction will pass like all market corrections do eventually. Just gotta ride the coaster like usual!!!

 

[dl003]

You know what they say about what to do when life gives you lemons, right?

I got to thinking about how I have put off moving shares from the IRA to the ROTH because of the tax hit.

Guess what is now less of a concern? That pesky tax hit got discounted, didn't it?

Waiting on a return call from Fidelity to line this up and get some more shares comfortably residing in the ROTH.

Thought I'd pass this along if anyone else might find it useful.

This market has taught me that if life gives you a lemon, you better leverage it into 15 lemons while shorting the ice cream truck across the street. You then go on CNBC and tell the world that diabetes has become a deadly pandemic in the US and the government should shut all ice cream vendors down. Am I doing this right?

 

[StealthP3D]

Well I rolled my March'23 500 calls to 550 so i could realize a 350k loss to offset the gains from my inclusion play and reduce taxes significantly.

Well, the sun is always shining somewhere!

 

[Tes La Ferrari]

Tesla (TSLA) erased $100 billion in value, but it could be worth $1 trillion this year, says top analyst - Electrek


TL; DR: This is Electrek's article on Dan Ives forecasting a $1T valuation for TSLA this year

“If China stays on its current path for Tesla, Musk & Co. could hit one million delivery units globally by 2022. This speaks to our thesis that Tesla will hit a trillion-dollar market cap in 2021 despite this risk-off moment for EV stocks with the bears coming back to life after a long hibernation in their caves over the past year.”​

 

[joh01652]

Huh, check this out: Tesla halts forums, launches new in-house social engagement platform

"Tesla has officially launched its own form of social media with the “Engage Tesla” platform. The new site, launched earlier today, gives owners and fans the ability to interact with each other while talking about the latest developments and rumors within the community while also updating members with campaigns related to current events. A few of them, for example, allow owners to support those affected by the recent storm disasters in Texas and also updates members of community events taking place near them. With the new platform, Tesla is dropping its Forums.Tesla.com site, making the message board “read-only” beginning March 15th."

Welcome to the Tesla Engagement Platform

 

[Knightshade]

Y
I agree, learning that fast would not be practical. But I guess there could have been a freak moment where someone was supervising at that moment and pushed him a few new bits. Minor updates do occur without our knowledge, but I highly doubt that happens while we're driving.

IIRC Green debunked that notion at the time-

they must update entire firmware at least on the autopilot. Can't change a single file - breaks dm-verity. Can't overlay and have it survive a reboot (no dev overlay hooks in prod firmwares)

I think maps (and maybe other infotainment stuff- I've seen references to games updating) can be updated out of band like that, but not anything the driving computer is running.

(which is a GOOD thing from a security perspective)

 

[2daMoon]

Huh, check this out: Tesla halts forums, launches new in-house social engagement platform

"Tesla has officially launched its own form of social media with the “Engage Tesla” platform. The new site, launched earlier today, gives owners and fans the ability to interact with each other while talking about the latest developments and rumors within the community while also updating members with campaigns related to current events. A few of them, for example, allow owners to support those affected by the recent storm disasters in Texas and also updates members of community events taking place near them. With the new platform, Tesla is dropping its Forums.Tesla.com site, making the message board “read-only” beginning March 15th."

Welcome to the Tesla Engagement Platform

Isn't it amazing that nobody else had done this yet?

 

[Oveeus]

Many here and on my Twitter TSLA feed have said it, but I thought I'd put it into my own words.

Investment is often a commitment for a certain period of time until the planned result comes to fruition.

If anyone is panicking the last few days, I'd share what I felt around this time last year during the Covid crash.

I originally bought in sub 200 (pre-split) and then it ran all the way up to about 900. Of course I was pumped, but I didn't sell because I just felt my Tesla Model 3 was a superior product and the company is doing everything in the right direction.

Then the crash started. I remember the day it reached the bottom at around 300 or so. And what exactly went through my mind? "Oh well... I am still green although the portfolio took a beating, my Model 3 is still awesome and Elon and the team is still doing everything they need to do in the right direction." I closed the stock tab and went on my day to day life. What happened next, as they said... is history.

If you are feeling uneasy, think again about your original investment perspectives. Why did you buy into TSLA or any stock.

Did that change? If that expectation changed, by all mean, change your investment accordingly. However, if it has not... then the question becomes... who cares?

The SP is just a number that a person is willing to pay right NOW for the share. If one isn't planning to sell. The SP is irrelevant. I have my stock app set to the market cap figure instead of $ or % because of this. I try to focus only on news... as I do scrolling through here and Twitter feeds, I focus on news and news only.

There is no need for any cheerleading comments or anything to make anyone feel good. The best analytic is to do just that... analytic. Check what the company is doing and make your investment decisions based on that. Assuming the analytic didn't change, then any shock to SP is just noise in my opinion.

 

[asburgers]

Huh, check this out: Tesla halts forums, launches new in-house social engagement platform

"Tesla has officially launched its own form of social media with the “Engage Tesla” platform. The new site, launched earlier today, gives owners and fans the ability to interact with each other while talking about the latest developments and rumors within the community while also updating members with campaigns related to current events. A few of them, for example, allow owners to support those affected by the recent storm disasters in Texas and also updates members of community events taking place near them. With the new platform, Tesla is dropping its Forums.Tesla.com site, making the message board “read-only” beginning March 15th."

Welcome to the Tesla Engagement Platform

Could come in handy. Pretty awesome! Now for the NIO-like clubhouses.

 

[Alphacrux]

Will we get it?

 

[woodisgood]

Indeed. It has been pointed out repeatedly how stop-loss orders are easily spotted (and thus exploited).

Can Market Makers also estimate when e.g. retailers are using more leverage than usually - i.e. when it will pay off to trigger these massive dips? Not to pick on Robinhood, but are there ways where the MMs can "work" with retail brokers to gain this kind of insight?

Absolutely these mechanisms must exist, because what we already know of must only be the tip of the iceberg.

You can also infer some of the leverage-like situations. For example, 2020 was a wildly profitable year in the market following the Covid dip. That's a lot of income taxes people are going to have to pay; there were a lot of short-term gains. How many of those people set aside their tax money immediately after selling?

 

[capster]

I agree it's a smokescreen, the question is, "for what?". Just because the reason emphasized is not valid, does not mean there are not valid reasons. The market is what it is for a reason. Investor sentiment. This market has been ready for a major correction for a LONG time, we just didn't know exactly when it would hit. Now we know but we still don't know how low it will go or how long it will last. It will largely be determined by investor sentiment just as the underlying economy is largely determined by consumer sentiment. These things are impossible to know in advance.

And, as long as one doesn't need to sell in the short-term, and they own quality companies, it doesn't really matter. I would hate to own the companies that are being disrupted right now because their declines will probably not go away.

For what?

tl;dr: My best guess is that the Street has a genuine and legitimate fear of being disintermediated — at least the financial advising and active investment management part. They are putting a bit of stick about to scare retail investors back into line.

At a high level:

Most intelligent investors would have realized years ago that ‘fiduciary responsibility’ is something financial advising firms aim to skirt.

Then, a lot of retail investors got the jump on the street in the 2020 run up. The pandemic gave retail investors the time to look into investing and to build confidence.

It may have also alerted many retail investors to that fact that the financial press is full of it. The press basically says whatever the Street wants them to say. What the Street wants them to say is often not in retail investors’ interest.

For example, look at the coverage in the immediate aftermath of the GME squeeze: According to the press, the problem was “those meddling kids” (shout out to Scooby Doo! ). Precious little mention, if any, of the naked shorting by MM’s, lack of transparency around short action, scandalously negligent SEC oversight of shorts, and the papers’ own complicity.

As regards proximate cause:

The GME squeeze was an act of aggression by retail against the Street. Retail caught the Street in a box canyon, both knew it and retail gunned down a lot of pros. The houses of cards erected by the pros were shown to be fragile to the point of being a threat to larger market.

So:

No wonder Wall Street has gone gunning for Main Street.


Of course there are other subtleties:

For example, the Street may be trying to bully the Fed into extending the supplementary leverage ratio by March 31: Analysis: Fixed-income markets wary of Fed decision on bank capital relief

“Fears about a rule called the supplementary leverage ratio, or SLR, come as fixed income markets have become more volatile. Inflation fears helped to send yields on longer-dated Treasuries last week to one-year highs, while flooded money markets briefly sent a key overnight borrowing rate below zero.

On March 31, a regulatory break that big banks have enjoyed regarding SLR is scheduled to expire. Unless the Federal Reserve extends the break, banks will have to hold more capital against Treasury bonds, as well as deposits they keep at the Fed.”

This Powell declined to mention doing yesterday.

 

[Singuy]

Well this sucks. QQQ broke out as predicted, tsla however is lagging behind. Without some good catalyst somewhere even if QQQ breaks ATH, Tsla has about 200 bucks erased from its ATH.

However I am looking at my other positions and it seems that the higher the P/E, the worst the recovery. So it's not Tsla specific. My lower PE tech stocks went green.

 

[phantasms]

longer the base. . . - - - . . .