Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[scaesare]

There's only two things that I want to hear in the Model Y reveal:

• Deliveries will be starting in either Q4 '19 or Q1 '20, with full production by ~Q4 '21.
• Any evidence that tooling progress is in a much more advanced stage than the market believes.

It seems that the main market expectation is that Model Y will be a year later than that, and this would be a huge beat. If the unveiling includes the above, I'll be grinning ear to ear. Regardless of whether there's a "just one more thing" or not. Which there very well might not be (there isn't always).

Why a 2 yr ramp?

 

[scaesare]

I think a LOT of people are jumping on the 2k upgrade for FSD, plus however many are doing AP upgrades.

A buddy of mine who bought a 3 did for that very reason.

 

[lklundin]

I don't know, this is a government agency we're talking about. The track record for government agencies being held in a negative light isn't real strong. After all, there are a lot more egregious actions the SEC has taken (or not taken as the case may be...aka short manipulation) that has gone unpunished in any way, shapem, or form. It would not surprise me if the court found in the SEC's favor. Not because I think it is right, but because I'm not totally comfortable with the American justice system. (I can say that, I'm an American lol)

Dan

Regardless of how the judge sentences, can defendant or plaintiff appeal to some higher court?

ED: copyedit.

 

[jerry33]

Not sure why anyone would rate this a “Like” — Berkshire Hathaway is the enemy here. They have become one of if not the biggest obstacle to Tesla expanding its store/gallery/service center presence in Texas. My sources tell me they’re actively blocking Tesla’s latest legislative bid there.

Tesla already damaged their latest bid by cancelling the legislature day. Not that there was a snowballs chance of it succeeding. The committee that the legislation has to go through is very, very pro dealer. And for right now, the enemy of my enemy is my friend.

 

[Bobfitz1]

No, it's Elon is going to pop the trunk and out comes the Tesla Model B.

Bicycle.

With a neuralink controlled monkey riding it.

Superb idea! How did you get Mark Spiegel to agree to do it?

 

[KarenRei]

Why a 2 yr ramp?

Me attempting to fix a typo and creating a different one in the process (*sigh*)

 

[lklundin]

I think you're confused. Interior refresh != Switching the pack from 18650s to 2170s.

And I only think an interior refresh is a possibility. Far from a certainty. But possible.

Sorry that I have to ask: is an 'interior refresh' some kind of cosmetic change?

I think Tesla allocates few resources for something that is not directly functional.

Well, except for certain software such as the 'emissions testing mode'...

 

[lklundin]

Not a surprise to most of the folks here:

VW slashes 7,000 jobs to refocus on electric cars

Right. German news reported that the VW stock price reacted positively to these news. I seem to recall the opposite for TSLA...

 

[pnungesser]

South of France is only a day’s drive from Zeebrugge. So whether you get you car in Q1 will depend on how many available car carriers they have. The same car carrier can deliver 6 or 8 cars to south of France in let’s say 48 hours, or 100 in Ghent.

BTW: I haven’t seen this mentioned here, but on the Benelux Model 3 facebook group, somebody commented (responding to people complaining that they didn’t get their car yet) that he personally went to Zeebrugge and described the situation of loading car carriers as ‘hectic’, 24/7. Car carriers waiting all over the place to get loaded, often in places where they’re not supposed to be because there’s no place elsewhere.

Does anyone have a better estimate on how many Teslas might have been on each ship? I would not think any ships would have left for a long voyage front SF to either China or Belgium with less than a full load. With 800 M3's being producd each day, I would think the ship would wait until Tesla could fill it up. The question then becomes how many vehicles were already aboard when it reached SF. I didn't see any previous ports-of-call that would seem a likely location to load a significant number of vehicles. Unless I'm way off-base, there may have been more Teslas on each ship than we first thought. Does anyone have a SWAG about the number shipped?

 

[Carl Raymond]

MarketWatch - 41 minutes ago: How Tesla’s Model Y has the potential to save the world

The writer seems to think the Y requires subsidies to sell. Out of touch. Has not noticed Tesla pricing is now head to head with comparable ICE models.

Indeed, almost nobody has noticed. When they do, the share price will move. Far better product, same price, max-growth secured.

 

[bdy0627]

I would like to do this too, but can't figure out how. I'm in Australia at the moment and can't get put on hold by Tesla for an hour...

Can't you pull up your account on the Tesla website? That's how I did it.

 

[RobStark]

The semi cab is sleek, the exact opposite of what I consider "steampunk" to be. Steampunk is usually an application of over the top unnecessary appendages, pretty much the opposite of an aerodynamic EV.

Steam Punk pickup not RPG launcher.

Elon Also said it would be Bladerunner like.

 

[lklundin]

It is really simple.
First, the market data proves definitively that the tweet in question was not material since it precipitated no market movement. That is a quite definitive standard, one which the SEC must apply if they pursue a civil or criminal action.
Second, if the SEC chose to pursue legal action claiming a violation, they must prove their assertion.
Third, if proof of immateriality is present, but teh SEC chose to proceed anyway, they must prove their own case.
Their own case allegedly relied on TSLA share traders providing evidence, which must be presented to prove their case.
Of course, if they wish to avoid discovery they can drop their case and void the original agreement that precipitated their assertions.

It's a civil action, the plaintiff has no alternative other than present their evidence unless they wish to drop the case. Their standard of proof is less in a civil than a criminal case, and the SEC has rarely pursued such cases, almost never in the absence of clear criminal action in violation of an agreement.

Keep those sharp analyses coming at least for as long as the discovery phase lasts, because Elon Musk is saving boat loads of money by not actually having a real legal team, but instead just basing his defense on obvious, verbatim copies of TMC posts.

It's a game of pennies to turn a Q1 profit!

 

[ggr]

Can't you pull up your account on the Tesla website? That's how I did it.

Yeah, I did that but couldn't find any place to click anything to order. Note that I want to upgrade an already delivered car. I'll poke around some more, but if you can give me a hint...

 

[JRP3]

Steam Punk pickup not RPG launcher.

That pic also makes my point.

 

[lklundin]

Curt, this sort of regurgitation of regurgitation is not very helpful, to say the least. There is hardly anything from that website worth linking to nowadays.

An instructive metric for the Model 3 market penetration in a given market is its number of inhabitants per Model 3.
Per that article if would be somewhat above 83k for Germany (using only February deliveries) and 36k for the Netherlands (also only February deliveries), while for Denmark it is 32k (as of March 11).

I don't have the exact numbers, but Norway is off the charts with at most a few thousand inhabitants per Model 3...

 

[Big Earl]

Yeah, I did that but couldn't find any place to click anything to order. Note that I want to upgrade an already delivered car. I'll poke around some more, but if you can give me a hint...

Sign in to your Tesla account, click manage on the vehicle you want to upgrade, scroll down to shop and click on autopilot upgrades.

 

[Krugerrand]

Maybe I'm mistaken but after the reveal, won't potential future customers be permitted to place reservations online, not orders.
The difference being reservation deposit is less than an order deposit and if similar to M3 reservation process, you aren't reserving a specific MY variant but just a generic MY.

Yes. That’s what we’re expecting. But it’s still all online from now on; reservations or orders. No difference.

 

[ggr]

Sign in to your Tesla account, click manage on the vehicle you want to upgrade, scroll down to shop and click on autopilot upgrades.

Thanks! Still early morning here... somehow just couldn't see it. Also just realized how OT this all was. Some moderator :-(

 

[Artful Dodger]

Could have been a decoy. He said “later this year”. It is already later this year.

I can see the SEC having a conniption debating the definition of “later”.

No, here's what Elon said during the 2018Q4 CC:

Elon Musk​

Yes, that's good. And then the Tesla pickup truck, we might be ready to unveil that this summer. It will be something quite unique, unlike anything else.​