Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[goinfraftw]

Why would they? Generally corporate locations are in places where faster, more reliable service is available.

Starlink is a godsend for folks in remote/rural locations where their best options are garbage geosync sats or hilariously slow DSL (I'm waiting for it pretty badly myself for that reason)-- but it makes little sense in denser urban areas both for sky visibility and because there's fiber/cable/etc options available there.

Elon Musk says Starlink should be 'fully mobile' by the end of 2021, allowing customers to use it at any address or in moving vehicles

Elon Musk said Friday that Starlink users should be able to move their satellite internet hardware between addresses by the end of the year.

www.businessinsider.com

Curious, is all!

 

[StealthP3D]

This convinces me that Ford knows they will be cannibalizing their own profitable ICE sales for far less or completely unprofitable EV sales, and every time I think about it I see more clearly that Ford really is trapped in the innovator’s dilemma.

The bright spot for Ford is that they are in complete control of how much they cannibalize their own profitable ICE sales simply by controlling the number of F-150 Lightnings they produce. The cannot sell electric trucks they don't make.

The bad news for Ford is they cannot control how many Cybertrucks Telsa makes. On the flip side, Tesla can only ramp Cybertruck production as quickly as they can ramp battery production (and the Semi will be competing for those same batteries). If the Cybertruck is as good as I think it is, and Tesla is able to ramp batteries reasonably quickly, this will not only cut into F-150 ICE sales (by actually displacing them) it will also prevent Ford from charging as much as they could have for the trucks they do sell. Because keeping ICE prices high would further reduce sales volume as people decide to wait for a truck with a better value and this path of sales lost to Tesla combined with sales lost to people waiting to purchase is how Ford could lose more quickly. So they will try to maintain as much volume as possible by reducing their margins. Because choosing to keep prices high will lower volumes to the point that margins are lowered automatically. The path of more slowly falling volumes and lower selling prices is the path of losing more slowly. And dying businesses generally chose the path of losing more slowly in the hope they can make the transition.

What would be best for Ford profits (and not so good for the planet) is if the economy continues to accelerate so much that middle America is rolling in so much cash and cheap oil that Ford can continue to sell their gas trucks in similar volumes and at even higher prices due to unprecedented demand. This scenario could possibly buy Ford enough time to develop EV platforms that are not crippled by the high cost and weight of huge batteries and correspondingly longer charging times. For Ford to succeed at EV's would require the modernizing of the engineering culture at Ford which has been stifled by decades of stagnation that has crept into the entire auto industry. And that's a tall order which is the real reason I'm not too bullish on Ford remaining a dominant force.

Tesla already has that culture which, along with their existing technological lead, are their greatest strengths.

 

[FreqFlyer]

My overall feeling regarding the F150 is very positive. I do not think it is much of a BEV, but it is a BEV! It will have a market, people will buy it, there will be less ICE cars on the road and I hope Ford actually plans to ramp the volume, although I doubt that.

More than anything, this is yet another victory for the mission! A trend that now appears overwhelming and inevitable now thanks to Tesla, Elon, and the people like us on this board from the past and in the present, many of whom voted with their wallets sight unseen with both product and stock purchases and have been amply rewarded on all counts!

I do have a question though... the F150 is said to have a 150kwh battery. Is Ford actually planning to make money on these things at all? Isn’t every sale a loser, regulatory credits aside? The cost on their batteries has got to be close to twice that of Tesla. Does anyone see Ford turning a profit on these in the near future?

What a tough slog for these OEMs! I wonder how many will actually make it....

Ford is taking a product that sells over 700K units a year and makes sick profit margins on. The frame and battery is new, the body is not. Ford is probably easily breaking even or could probably care less, did I state Ford sells over 700K F trucks?

 

[elasalle]

The bright spot for Ford is that they are in complete control of how much they cannibalize their own profitable ICE sales simply by controlling the number of F-150 Lightnings they produce. The cannot sell electric trucks they don't make.

The bad news for Ford is they cannot control how many Cybertrucks Telsa makes. On the flip side, Tesla can only ramp Cybertruck production as quickly as they can ramp battery production (and the Semi will be competing for those same batteries). If the Cybertruck is as good as I think it is, and Tesla is able to ramp batteries reasonably quickly, this will not only cut into F-150 ICE sales (by actually displacing them) it will also prevent Ford from charging as much as they could have for the trucks they do sell. Because keeping ICE prices high would further reduce sales volume as people decide to wait for a truck with a better value and this path of sales lost to Tesla combined with sales lost to people waiting to purchase is how Ford could lose more quickly. So they will try to maintain as much volume as possible by reducing their margins. Because choosing to keep prices high will lower volumes to the point that margins are lowered automatically. The path of more slowly falling volumes and lower selling prices is the path of losing more slowly. And dying businesses generally chose the path of losing more slowly in the hope they can make the transition.

What would be best for Ford profits (and not so good for the planet) is if the economy continues to accelerate so much that middle America is rolling in so much cash and cheap oil that Ford can continue to sell their gas trucks in similar volumes and at even higher prices due to unprecedented demand. This scenario could possibly buy Ford enough time to develop EV platforms that are not crippled by the high cost and weight of huge batteries and correspondingly longer charging times. For Ford to succeed at EV's would require the modernizing of the engineering culture at Ford which has been stifled by decades of stagnation that has crept into the entire auto industry. And that's a tall order which is the real reason I'm not too bullish on Ford remaining a dominant force.

Tesla already has that culture which, along with their existing technological lead, are their greatest strengths.

If there are more CT's than F-150s, the rich guys will need to buy CT's to blend in

Lightning being touted as being better than ICE F-150, so definitely already creating internal cannibalization

 

[tschmidty]

Why would they? Generally corporate locations are in places where faster, more reliable service is available.

Starlink is a godsend for folks in remote/rural locations where their best options are garbage geosync sats or hilariously slow DSL (I'm waiting for it pretty badly myself for that reason)-- but it makes little sense in denser urban areas both for sky visibility and because there's fiber/cable/etc options available there.

Lol, yeah I am in Charlotte, NC on Google Fiber getting ready to move out near Brevard and will be stuck with DSL until Starlink comes through. Good bye to being able to stream anything, it's going to be painful. May have to get satellite TV ugh.

 

[Unpilot]

did I state Ford sells over 700K F trucks

Yep...currently.
Things are changing...and not in Fords favor.

 

[UkNorthampton]

Catching up & a bit off-topic. The on-topic bit for Tesla is that the shareholder opinion, finance & insurance ecosystem for renewables & EVs is improving, while getting worse for ICE.

The implications are that we're getting to a tipping point where new fossil developments get so hard, only a few numpties & dictators would go ahead. They got Al Capone on tax charges, ICE/fossil will wither through finance

Spoiler: Details

1 - hard to get insurance for new coal mine - protests outside Lloyds (one of the few 'organisations') that would insure.

2) Shareholder votes for Shell & BP -
30% of Shell shareholders (by share, so that's heavily biased towards institutional) vote for carbon reduction targets. Last year it was 14% at Shell, BP last week was at 21%. >20% crosses a threshold where management have to do something under UK law. In a panic, Shell put forward their own resolution to head off the harder one - hopefully ok to do small quote guardian

Under pressure, Shell put forward a vote on its own plans to reduce carbon emissions. The resolution passed with 88% of votes cast.

Ben van Beurden, Shell’s chief executive, said the company had noted the results of the shareholder resolution and committed to consultations with investors.

He said: “We will seek to fully understand the reason why shareholders voted as they did, particularly those who voted both ‘for’ Shell’s strategy and ‘for’ the shareholder resolution, and will formally report back to investors within six months.”

Shell faces shareholder rebellion over fossil fuel production

Shareholder resolution calling for carbon emissions reduction targets receives 30% of votes

www.theguardian.com

Website is extremely slow for me - https://www.follow-this.org/

 

[jkirkwood001]

If there are more CT's than F-150s, the rich guys will need to buy CT's to blend in

Lightning being touted as being better than ICE F-150, so definitely already creating internal cannibalization

I can't find a side-by-side comparison (cost, range, payload, etc.) between the ICE F-150 and the Lightning - anybody?

 

[traxila]

Ford is taking a product that sells over 700K units a year and makes sick profit margins on. The frame and battery is new, the body is not. Ford is probably easily breaking even or could probably care less, did I state Ford sells over 700K F trucks?

I know about the 700K. It is kind of hard to miss as I drive around, even in NYC.

So your position is that economies of scale are not compromised, because little has changed with the actual car. Just slap a frame and battery in. OK. You write that like they could even use the same assembly line.

Is this really the case? No way Ford can do anything but print money?

And based on the "could care less" then Ford does care about at least breaking even. Never seen loss leaders as a business strategy in the car business last too long.

 

[Knightshade]

I can't find a side-by-side comparison (cost, range, payload, etc.) between the ICE F-150 and the Lightning - anybody?

Your problem is gonna be there's roughly 973,000 different ways you can order an ICE F-150, so which of those myriad configs, specifically, do you put in the comparison? And we still lack a lot of detail on features, pricing, and options for the EV version to really get into any detail.

 

[StealthP3D]

In other news, I’m feeling good about my TSLA buy at $556 on Wednesday. Unfortunately it was only 2 shares since I never sold anything in this drop .

Save your pennies, my gut is telling me we might have one more unfathomable drop next week (or so). Of course these things are literally impossible to predict with any consistency but it's always good to be prepared to act. This is based on a couple of things, that the established momentum is still in an unfavorable direction and that I don't think the chart would look "right" if we kept going up from here. It doesn't seem like we have put in a definitive bottom.

Yes, this is weak medicine but the share price is not a precise calculation of value, it's a market sentiment sort of thing.

 

[ByeByeJohnny]

Fords, and everybody else's, problem will be when they sell manufacture 700k 650k ICE, can only produce 50k EVs, but 200k of the buyers want the EV instead.

Then they are making slightly less on each of the 500k ICE they still sell. They lose a ton on the 150k they make but don't sell. Make nothing from the 150k that hold on to their old model for an extra year or two. While at best breaking even on the 50k EVs they are selling.

Or any variation of numbers and models the ICE producers will run into.

 

[DarkandStormy]

Downgrade from BofA

https://twitter.com/x/status/1395691208656162820

 

[Artful Dodger]

Well, MMs and hedgies have got the SP capped at the MA(10) which is just a smidge below the MA(200) right now. Let's see what 3:30 pm brings. I still think their may be a late day run at 600 (and more if momo builds).

Cheers!

... we now return you back to your Fordathon.

 

[Drumheller]

Looks like $590 is the cap today.

I wonder what the stock market would look like if options didn't exist.

 

[scaesare]

I had the benefit of taking a one day course with Clayton Christensen (the professor behind the Innovator's Dilemma) several years ago.
The main issue is that the company's existing business is such a large Cash Cow, that a new innovation (even if the company itself introduces it) will kill the company.

Blockbuster Entertainment had tremendous cash flow as each video tape/cd is re-rented 20-30 times (they had about 4,000 stores throughout North America). Early on, they had the opportunity to launch a Netflix type model but the analysis showed that the cash flow from a digital offering would take time and it would kill the in-store cash flow quickly......so they delayed and delayed until a small player (Netflix) proved the model could work and by that time it was too late for Blockbuster. Sound familiar?

OT, so....

Spoiler: Blockbuster Stuff

The documentary Netflix vs The World (ironically on Amazon Prime) is a good watch on this...

 

[RobStark]

I do have a question though... the F150 is said to have a 150kwh battery. Is Ford actually planning to make money on these things at all?

No, Ford is planning to sell below cost.

As a charitable contribution to stop climate change.

Because Ford is a purpose driven company not a profit driven company.

 

[Right_Said_Fred]

I’ve been away for a day and seem to be lost. This is clearly the Ford thread. Can anyone point me to the Tesla section?

 

[thx1139]

Trying to understand whay they are trying to say.

 

[StealthP3D]

When Tesla sells a cybertruck they sell the resulting EV credits at ~50% discount. When Ford sells a Lightning they will consume the credits internally at 100% value.

Nope. You cannot have it both ways. If Tesla has to sell the credits for 50% of the value, that implies Ford can buy them for 50% of their value. You can't value something at 100% when you can buy it at 50%.

BTW, you are giving away your auto industry ties by capitalizing "Ford Lightning" but bastardizing "cybertruck" with a lower case. Just one clue of many.