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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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Really? I took delivery of my Model 3 in December, 2017 (Christmas eve). I had no idea I was saving the company. I thought I was lucky in getting such a magnificent car so soon after it became available.
I know. That's why the quotes. At least some employees seem to have swallowed the 'near death experience' line from Elon hook, line, and sinker.
 
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The TAM incudes people like me who have never owned a truck before.
This ugly, unconventional, weird looking not-a-truck is going to be an absolute monster hit.

MONSTER HIT!...................... I tell ya.
Anyone considering the CT for demolition derbies? I think as long as there isn't another CT in the event it should pretty much crush, literally, every other contender.
 
For the times they are a changing…

 
The TAM incudes people like me who have never owned a truck before.
Yup! Here, I am guilty as charged...
Never owned a truck, never had any intention of buying a truck prior to CT, but when I looked at the combination of price and features and looked at my aging 2014 Model S (prior to Autopilot-1 hardware), I realized I am much better off "upgrading" to a CT rather than a new Model S or X.

And now I am even building a house to match the design of the CT ;)

1623806483368.png
 
For the times they are a changing…

  • Tesla annual cost of goods sold for 2020 was $24.906B, a 21.44% increase from 2019.
  • Tesla annual cost of goods sold for 2019 was $20.509B, a 17.74% increase from 2018.
  • Tesla annual cost of goods sold for 2018 was $17.419B, a 82.67% increase from 2017.
Their spending on EV still more than 5 years behind Tesla
 
Anyone considering the CT for demolition derbies? I think as long as there isn't another CT in the event it should pretty much crush, literally, every other contender.
Reminds me of the old Robot Wars where the winner was always a low, wedge-shaped design (couldn’t be flipped).

5E3A520C-AB27-43A0-A976-76F94DB77E53.jpeg
 
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  • Tesla annual cost of goods sold for 2020 was $24.906B, a 21.44% increase from 2019.
  • Tesla annual cost of goods sold for 2019 was $20.509B, a 17.74% increase from 2018.
  • Tesla annual cost of goods sold for 2018 was $17.419B, a 82.67% increase from 2017.
Their spending on EV still more than 5 years behind Tesla

They are talking about R&D, factories, equipment, retooling/retraining cost.

Not cost of goods sold.
 
Yup! Here, I am guilty as charged...
Never owned a truck, never had any intention of buying a truck prior to CT, but when I looked at the combination of price and features and looked at my aging 2014 Model S (prior to Autopilot-1 hardware), I realized I am much better off "upgrading" to a CT rather than a new Model S or X.

And now I am even building a house to match the design of the CT ;)

View attachment 673827

Good looking house design!
 
They are talking about R&D, factories, equipment, retooling/retraining cost.

Not cost of goods sold.
The term spending should include the cost to get the product out. I'm not sure they itemized what they spending on. Lots of times they use the term including R&D, factories, equipment, retooling/retraining cost. I don't know for sure. They normally like to report larger number to sound more serious investment.
 
Really? I took delivery of my Model 3 in December, 2017 (Christmas eve). I had no idea I was saving the company. I thought I was lucky in getting such a magnificent car so soon after it became available.

The Service Tech was just being nice. You are correct, you were lucky to get your Model 3 so soon. There was a huge line of people waiting behind you to get their own Model 3, my wife and I included. If you didn't take it, someone else would have been over-joyed. And now a similar dynamic is playing out with the new Model S and Plaid. And Model X. There is quite a wait for the 3 and Y in many areas too.

Who woulda thunk the shorts would have been so right about about Tesla's demand problem? 🤪

/s
 
I

I think you mean, think of it as closing just under $3,000.

Nah, just one for the nerds, rather than a failure to convert to pre-split.

599<600 = 599<700 = 599<1000 = true

But there is a psychological difference. The person who looks at the closing today and merely notes that it’s still under a thousand is possibly in a better head space, patiently waiting for that extra digit.
 
Anyone considering the CT for demolition derbies? I think as long as there isn't another CT in the event it should pretty much crush, literally, every other contender.

I think it's a commonly voiced misconception that the Cybertruck will be bomb-proof in a crash. If Tesla designs it for a 5-Star safety rating it will need crumple zones and the front crumple zone will use the cooling system to absorb energy. It's probably not true that it will be any better at ramming heavy objects than any other truck. But it will probably be a lot safer for the occupants than any other truck.
 
I think it's a commonly voiced misconception that the Cybertruck will be bomb-proof in a crash. If Tesla designs it for a 5-Star safety rating it will need crumple zones and the front crumple zone will use the cooling system to absorb energy. It's probably not true that it will be any better at ramming heavy objects than any other truck. But it will probably be a lot safer for the occupants than any other truck.
If all the other Teslas until now are an indication, it will be THE safest truck.
 
I think the TAM for CyberTruck includes a good chunk of the US SUV market as well as the pickups segment. Add the units/$ volumes of both together and subtract whatever bits aren't addressed (e.g., large commercial pickups, >5 passenger SUVs) and you're left with a TAM that must be at least twice the size of the "pickup" market. For me, the CyberTruck will be a highway cruiser used mostly like an SUV with occasional furniture moving/mulch pickup truck functionality.
Most half ton trucks are already used like that today. F150 King Ranch editions are today’s Cadillacs. The way are more luxury cruising vehicles than actual work for many Americans and that has fueled most of the growth of the truck market over the last 25 years. Also why we’ve seen multiple full size SUVs die and other barely sell. They have already converted to trucks at Ford and GM. Ram doesn’t make a body on frame SUV because it simply doesn’t make sense to with the sales. ~3m might be a tad low, but we are not talking about a 6-7m TAM.

The case I made was equal or better than the single best selling vehicle in the US. That would be a massive achievement and fundamentally change the outlook of the company.
 
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Breaks it down pretty clearly. There's roughly 683 million left on the payout. The hit to GAAP earnings will be dramatically reduced starting on Q2 earnings (roughly 100 million per quarter hit instead of 300+ million). It'll likely finish it's payout in mid 2022

i wouldmt get too excited about Elon compensation plan finishing - it seems logical that once it’s complete there will be another new compensation plan right behind it.
 
i wouldmt get too excited about Elon compensation plan finishing - it seems logical that once it’s complete there will be another new compensation plan right behind it.
I can't stop getting excited about Elon's next comp plan, where he gets more shares for creating another 10x in Market cap
 
i wouldmt get too excited about Elon compensation plan finishing - it seems logical that once it’s complete there will be another new compensation plan right behind it.

If you think Elon is going to get anywhere near as big of a pay package for his next deal, I have a bridge to sell ya. It's one thing to get a pay package like he got when the company is only a 30 billion company. Drastically different when the company is valued at 600 billion

Plus the conditions would be 10X harder to hit. The only reason it's been so impactful to earnings so far is literally because of the 2020 rally....otherwise it would have take years longer to complete.