Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[CHGolferJim]

Here's my takeaway from this. If you consider full size trucks a set pie of ~2.3m that is the same sales were in 2020, and that over time, will go fully electric. 24% is ~550k sales per year. 34% consider the specs the most important factor, where Tesla is consistently the top today in all their vehicles, that would be ~780k sales per year. Now the 2.3m is unlikely to stay static for a few reasons, first 2020 was a down year from 2019 where nearly 2.5m full size trucks were sold. Second, there will be conquests and an expanding market from Tesla fans, EV fans, full size SUV owners that don't have an EV option (yet), potentially expansion into other markets that are not usually into trucks to the same degree as Americans, plus this excludes Canada and Mexico sales. All that probably points to a TAM of ~3m vehicles per year. 24% there is ~720k and 34% is ~1m. The CT alone has the potential to equal Tesla's total 2021 sales by sometime in 2023/2024... at even higher margins.

I think the TAM for CyberTruck includes a good chunk of the US SUV market as well as the pickups segment. Add the units/$ volumes of both together and subtract whatever bits aren't addressed (e.g., large commercial pickups, >5 passenger SUVs) and you're left with a TAM that must be at least twice the size of the "pickup" market. For me, the CyberTruck will be a highway cruiser used mostly like an SUV with occasional furniture moving/mulch pickup truck functionality.

 

[ZachF]

Here's my takeaway from this. If you consider full size trucks a set pie of ~2.3m that is the same sales were in 2020, and that over time, will go fully electric. 24% is ~550k sales per year. 34% consider the specs the most important factor, where Tesla is consistently the top today in all their vehicles, that would be ~780k sales per year. Now the 2.3m is unlikely to stay static for a few reasons, first 2020 was a down year from 2019 where nearly 2.5m full size trucks were sold. Second, there will be conquests and an expanding market from Tesla fans, EV fans, full size SUV owners that don't have an EV option (yet), potentially expansion into other markets that are not usually into trucks to the same degree as Americans, plus this excludes Canada and Mexico sales. All that probably points to a TAM of ~3m vehicles per year. 24% there is ~720k and 34% is ~1m. The CT alone has the potential to equal Tesla's total 2021 sales by sometime in 2023/2024... at even higher margins.

Again, this is why I think Tesla should eventually make Cyber it's own brand. Add in a smaller truck, SUV/Van versions of each, and a Cyberbuggy(?) (Electric Jeep wrangler type car) and I think you could easily get 2m+ from those alone.

 

[Prunesquallor]

MY interest is as a camper replacement. Long range, compatibility with camper chargers, lots of power for cooking, nighttime heating/AC, StarLink. Just need the kick-ass camper pop- up equivalent.

 

[M|S|M MYP]

Almost all auto manufacturers have had a pause in manufacturing. Tesla has not missed a beat and their SP keeps going down....Makes 100% sense. Oh well....the longer the base......2 more weeks maybe.....2021 definitely!

 

[Unpilot]

I think the TAM for CyberTruck includes a good chunk of the US SUV market as well as the pickups segment. Add the units/$ volumes of both together and subtract whatever bits aren't addressed (e.g., large commercial pickups, >5 passenger SUVs) and you're left with a TAM that must be at least twice the size of the "pickup" market. For me, the CyberTruck will be a highway cruiser used mostly like an SUV with occasional furniture moving/mulch pickup truck functionality.

The TAM incudes people like me who have never owned a truck before.
This ugly, unconventional, weird looking not-a-truck is going to be an absolute monster hit.

MONSTER HIT!...................... I tell ya.

 

[Prunesquallor]

Almost all auto manufacturers have had a pause in manufacturing. Tesla has not missed a beat and their SP keeps going down....Makes 100% sense. Oh well....the longer the base......2 more weeks maybe.....2021 definitely!

And yet, there’s that big pile of Model S at Fremont waiting for SOMETHING. There is still a big mystery about why the upgrade took so long and what the continuing delivery hangup is.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

And yet, there’s that big pile of Model S at Fremont waiting for SOMETHING. There is still a big mystery about why the upgrade took so long and what the continuing delivery hangup is.

There's been many reports of Model S's being on trucks in route to delivery centers in just the past 2 days. Probably counted at least 5 different twitter accounts posting images of S's on the trucks on the highway. For all we know, they might be planning on delivering a bunch of S's to bay area customers by having them come to Fremont to pick up the car. They've done similar delivery events at the end of quarters before where people went to the factory to pick up their car.

 

[Nocturnal]

The TAM incudes people like me who have never owned a truck before.
This ugly, unconventional, weird looking not-a-truck is going to be an absolute monster hit.

MONSTER HIT!...................... I tell ya.

It will be the new beetle in the US at least. They will be everywhere, of that I'm extremely certain.

 

[MC3OZ]

One of the lame complaints I hear about the CT (usually from white collar internet geeks) is "you can't reach over the bed and lift things out". Oh, the movement that is extremely bad for your back and likely to cause injury?

Yes, but I think they prefer that to wheeling a trolley up the ramp.

 

[Wicket]

All I know is only Elon could make Cybertruck work as a desired product. I'm pretty sure the exact same vehicle would fail at any other manufacturer (keeping price/stats relatively constant just varying the design).

There is no overstating just how 'rule breaking' this man is and how that is to our benefit assuming he stays sane. We monkeys just like imitating our heroes that much.

 

[Bet TSLA]

...thanked me profusely for buying one of the earliest 3s and 'saving' the company.

Really? I took delivery of my Model 3 in December, 2017 (Christmas eve). I had no idea I was saving the company. I thought I was lucky in getting such a magnificent car so soon after it became available.

 

[Prunesquallor]

Really? I took delivery of my Model 3 in December, 2017 (Christmas eve). I had no idea I was saving the company. I thought I was lucky in getting such a magnificent car so soon after it became available.

Mine was from August 2018, so I saw the emergence from hell (mine was probably built in the tent). Came out perfect.

 

[Big Time]

Can someone provide info on Elon’s tranches and estimate when the last payment of this from the balance sheet occurs?

 

[c041v]

And yet, there’s that big pile of Model S at Fremont waiting for SOMETHING. There is still a big mystery about why the upgrade took so long and what the continuing delivery hangup is.

They are waiting on yokes. <hides>

 

[gene]

That's an ICE modified to look like the cybertruck.

I

If it makes you feel any better, think of it as closing under $1,000

I think you mean, think of it as closing just under $3,000.

 

[jkirkwood001]

MY interest is as a camper replacement. Long range, compatibility with camper chargers, lots of power for cooking, nighttime heating/AC, StarLink. Just need the kick-ass camper pop- up equivalent.

You're right! Tesla got me to buy a sedan for the first time! (Model 3 dual motor) = v. satisfied customer.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Can someone provide info on Elon’s tranches and estimate when the last payment of this from the balance sheet occurs?

https://twitter.com/x/status/1404129034204766213

Breaks it down pretty clearly. There's roughly 683 million left on the payout. The hit to GAAP earnings will be dramatically reduced starting on Q2 earnings (roughly 100 million per quarter hit instead of 300+ million). It'll likely finish it's payout in mid 2022

 

[AimStellar]

There's been many reports of Model S's being on trucks in route to delivery centers in just the past 2 days. Probably counted at least 5 different twitter accounts posting images of S's on the trucks on the highway. For all we know, they might be planning on delivering a bunch of S's to bay area customers by having them come to Fremont to pick up the car. They've done similar delivery events at the end of quarters before where people went to the factory to pick up their car.

+(at least) 1 east coast batch with this beauty on it

 

[kengchang]

View attachment 673812



+(at least) 1 east coast batch with this beauty on it

What's the config?

 

[AimStellar]

What's the config?