Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[InTheShadows]

The magic of Excel ....45 seconds to update the model.

I compute the current Q2 impairment loss at $90.3m.

View attachment 676191

Some additional points:
- this has no impact on cash flow
- Q2 earnings still look strong even with this $90m charge (see below)
- and yes, Telsa is still GAAP positive even without Reg Credits.

View attachment 676192

Thanks for all of these calculations. What is the delivery number needed for GAAP break even with out credits?

 

[thx1139]

Reality check for Volkswagen in China after sluggish start for electric car series​

Reality check for Volkswagen in China after sluggish start for electric car series

Volkswagen AG's ID series - the backbone of its electric vehicle ambitions - is off to what even company sources call a worryingly slow start in China. Sales in May of two ID.4 electric SUV models, launched only two months earlier, came to a mere 1,213 combined. Volkswagen's venture with...

finance.yahoo.com

anyone here surprised i am disappointed but not surprised

Now dont have a ton of data yet, but seems to me that ID.4 isnt doing all that great in Europe. Launched in March and had a good March and April, but fell back considerably in May and by the looks of it falling back even more in June.

 

[lascavarian]

t


That's not remotely new though, nor remotely exclusive to Tesla.

Nissan had it in 2011.

Nissan Releases Latest Safety Innovations

Nissan Releases Latest Safety Innovations

global.nissannews.com

Now I'm sure Teslas system is better (and will keep getting better still), but it's an idea that's been in production cars for at least a decade now.

The Nissan doc seems specific to confined spaces.

I was impressed recently at a divided highway intersection. 3 lanes with the left lane a left turn lane. I was in FSD beta (having just come out of navigate on autopilot) in the middle lane at a red light.

I was looking to my left as the left lane started to move. Out of the corner of my eye, I caught the lane to my right start to move into the intersection.

I guess it was instinctive that I reacted when my car did not move and I hit the peddle. No movement! I hit it again and still no movement. The car to my right was fully through the intersection And the lane to my left was moving briskly.

Got my attention back and realized that the light was still red. The car to my right had run the light. I guess the driver saw the movement in the left turn lane and started through the intersection against the light.

I don’t know if this was Mis-application of Peddle technically but I was very impressed that my potentially dangerous mistake was prevented.

 

[The Accountant]

Thanks for all of these calculations. What is the delivery number needed for GAAP break even with out credits?

Actually when I give you the number, people won't believe it.
My model states that Tesla needs only 170k deliveries to be GAAP positive without Reg Credits.
Yes...this is below Q1 of 185k deliveries.

Here is why Q2 comes out GAAP +ve with only 170k deliveries:

S&X Refresh Charges
Q1 had charges of 200m for the Model S&X Refresh. In Q2, I include 110m for these charges to cover what is known as idle capacity. That's a 90m reduction to Q1. I believe my Q2 charge of $110m is conservative....it could be much lower

CEO Award Charges
CEO Charges for Q1 $299m
CEO Charges for Q2 $166m

Other Drivers:
Improved margins on shipments to Europe via Shanghai
Improved margins with the Energy Segment

 

[Artful Dodger]

Cramer ranting about people unwilling to get vaccinated. The irony of CNBC lamenting the consequences of ubiquitous disinformation. You're literally in the disinformation business!

Yup. I voted "Informative" because there is no "Ironic" button.

Cheers!

 

[thx1139]

The Nissan doc seems specific to confined spaces.

I was impressed recently at a divided highway intersection. 3 lanes with the left lane a left turn lane. I was in FSD beta (having just come out of navigate on autopilot) in the middle lane at a red light.

I was looking to my left as the left lane started to move. Out of the corner of my eye, I caught the lane to my right start to move into the intersection.

I guess it was instinctive that I reacted when my car did not move and I hit the peddle. No movement! I hit it again and still no movement. The car to my right was fully through the intersection And the lane to my left was moving briskly.

Got my attention back and realized that the light was still red. The car to my right had run the light. I guess the driver saw the movement in the left turn lane and started through the intersection against the light.

I don’t know if this was Mis-application of Peddle technically but I was very impressed that my potentially dangerous mistake was prevented.

This would have stopped us from the most worthless repair we ever had to do.

The most worthless repair we ever got on a car was ironically from an accident that my son got into that was the last day our Mercedes was going to be owned by us. He was coming home from school. Literally at the last light before our subdivision they were stopped. He saw the semi 2 cars in front of him move at the green. He accelerated to quickly and hit the car in front of him. We were going to trade in the car next day for our Model S. The damage amazed me. The Jeep SUV barely scratched the Mercedes ended up with like $15K in damage. State Farm didnt total it. We ended up selling it for less then the repairs, but had to wait like a month before.

Tesla should prepare some videos of typical scenarios that I have heard people have accidents with that this prevents.

Putting car in drive rather then reverse and crash into garage rather then back out. I know people that did this. Daughter of friend who was learning to drive did this to our house. Damaged the brick between our 2 garage doors and we couldnt use our garage door opener for a month because track got to bent.

 

[henchman24]

The magic of Excel ....45 seconds to update the model.

I compute the current Q2 impairment loss at $90.3m.

View attachment 676191

Some additional points:
- this has no impact on cash flow
- Q2 earnings still look strong even with this $90m charge (see below)
- and yes, Telsa is still GAAP positive even without Reg Credits.

View attachment 676192

Gonna have to recalculate now.

At this point the Bitcoin part is a complete distraction that can overshadow different things in the company. I'm personally ready for them to dump the Bitcoin and start figuring out ways to employ the capital instead of sitting in a crypto.

 

[MABMAB]

Actually when I give you the number, people won't believe it.
My model states that Tesla needs only 170k deliveries to be GAAP positive without Reg Credits.
Yes...this is below Q1 of 185k deliveries.

Here is why Q2 comes out GAAP +ve with only 170k deliveries:

S&X Refresh Charges
Q1 had charges of 200m for the Model S&X Refresh. In Q2, I include 110m for these charges to cover what is known as idle capacity. That's a 90m reduction to Q1. I believe my Q2 charge of $110m is conservative....it could be much lower

CEO Award Charges
CEO Charges for Q1 $299m
CEO Charges for Q2 $166m

Other Drivers:
Improved margins on shipments to Europe via Shanghai
Improved margins with the Energy Segment

Could this kind of analysis be kept on its own forum? Not trying to be rude, but if models like this get talked about a lot, following the specific discussion can be difficult.

For instance, I want to read or ask your input on BTC, perhaps it has already been discussed. If your models had its own place here, it would easier to follow.

So, what are your models saying about BTC?

 

[Discoducky]

This would have stopped us from the most worthless repair we ever had to do.

The most worthless repair we ever got on a car was ironically from an accident that my son got into that was the last day our Mercedes was going to be owned by us. He was coming home from school. Literally at the last light before our subdivision they were stopped. He saw the semi 2 cars in front of him move at the green. He accelerated to quickly and hit the car in front of him. We were going to trade in the car next day for our Model S. The damage amazed me. The Jeep SUV barely scratched the Mercedes ended up with like $15K in damage. State Farm didnt total it. We ended up selling it for less then the repairs, but had to wait like a month before.

Tesla should prepare some videos of typical scenarios that I have heard people have accidents with that this prevents.

Putting car in drive rather then reverse and crash into garage rather then back out. I know people that did this. Daughter of friend who was learning to drive did this to our house. Damaged the brick between our 2 garage doors and we couldnt use our garage door opener for a month because track got to bent.

I hear ya, the idea of PMM started when this happened: Tesla Model S Makes Entry Into Bank By Crashing Through Brick Wall

At the time, it was only about a mile from my former house before I moved to Fremont to start at Tesla. This accident really got me thinking how things like this could be prevented.

If the AP system could remember that a parking maneuver had been completed, car was in a parking spot and the path ahead was NOT a drive-able surface, we could predict that the only, high confidence way out is reverse. So when the car was put into 'drive', NOT reverse like expected, then throttle applied, we could have high confidence that was PMM.

So great to see the Andrej videos where PMM has fully mitigated accidents; especially where loss of life would have been the most likely outcome.

 

[The Accountant]

Could this kind of analysis be kept on its own forum? Not trying to be rude, but if models like this get talked about a lot, following the specific discussion can be difficult.

For instance, I want to read or ask your input on BTC, perhaps it has already been discussed. If your models had its own place here, it would easier to follow.

So, what are your models saying about BTC?

Understood - I have updated my analysis and put it in this thread:

Bitcoin - Potential Q2 2021 Impact

Here is my estimate for the Bitcoin Impairment Charge for Q2 2021: Q2 Earnings Outlook with this Impairment:

teslamotorsclub.com

 

[StealthP3D]

That car has the biggest splitter I've seen on a car outside of the front wing on an F1 car.

The high altitude of Pike's Peak requires much larger aerodynamic aids to achieve the same effect.

Let's hope Randy can keep the Tesla on the road for the win this year!

 

[thx1139]

I hear ya, the idea of PMM started when this happened: Tesla Model S Makes Entry Into Bank By Crashing Through Brick Wall

At the time, it was only about a mile from my former house before I moved to Fremont to start at Tesla. This accident really got me thinking how things like this could be prevented.

If the AP system could remember that a parking maneuver had been completed, car was in a parking spot and the path ahead was NOT a drive-able surface, we could predict that the only, high confidence way out is reverse. So when the car was put into 'drive', NOT reverse like expected, then throttle applied, we could have high confidence that was PMM.

So great to see the Andrej videos where PMM has fully mitigated accidents; especially where loss of life would have been the most likely outcome.

Another thing the tech could be used for would be to stop tailgaters. If say you are going highway speeds the car could not allow you to accelerate enough to get really close to the driver in front of you. It is so annoying and dangerous. You get within say a car length and cameras say no you cant accelerate to get even closer.

 

[InTheShadows]

Could this kind of analysis be kept on its own forum? Not trying to be rude, but if models like this get talked about a lot, following the specific discussion can be difficult.

For instance, I want to read or ask your input on BTC, perhaps it has already been discussed. If your models had its own place here, it would easier to follow.

So, what are your models saying about BTC?

These discussions are what used to happen on this forum. Not even sure this one should be called an investment forum anymore.

 

[Joe F]

The Nissan doc seems specific to confined spaces.

I was impressed recently at a divided highway intersection. 3 lanes with the left lane a left turn lane. I was in FSD beta (having just come out of navigate on autopilot) in the middle lane at a red light.

I was looking to my left as the left lane started to move. Out of the corner of my eye, I caught the lane to my right start to move into the intersection.

I guess it was instinctive that I reacted when my car did not move and I hit the peddle. No movement! I hit it again and still no movement. The car to my right was fully through the intersection And the lane to my left was moving briskly.

Got my attention back and realized that the light was still red. The car to my right had run the light. I guess the driver saw the movement in the left turn lane and started through the intersection against the light.

I don’t know if this was Mis-application of Peddle technically but I was very impressed that my potentially dangerous mistake was prevented.

I have mixed feelings about this. There have been cases where Teslas were rear ended, and in one tragic case a child was killed when a drunk driving a truck crushed into the back end of a model X, riding up over it and crushing it.

There is video here somewhere where a Tesla was at a red light and the owner credited the instant acceleration saving them from being rear ended. If I recall correctly, Elon even commented on the video (was on Twitter, so not sure it was on TMC too.)

I feel the S/W needs to be aware of impending collisions and either take defensive action, or not override my attempts to do so.

 

[FreqFlyer]

What competition?

Any company can buy a plaid S and tear it down themselves. Also, Munro doesn't give away the very valuable info. For that, you need to buy their reports.

I'm looking forward to the teardown by Munro. It's one of the few channels I'm subscribed to.

Glad someone stated this reality. Every car maker does this, I bet there are three or four Model S Plaid orders for every major car maker out there to drive and tear apart. Those who do not will buy Munro's reports. It is Munro's job, to tell the competition what's up on Tesla vehicles, and he gets compensated very well for it too. Youtube views and stardom from Tesla fans are just icing on the cake.

And yes, would not be surprised if there was a Mach E and IDs somewhere at Tesla in various forms of tear down too. Now, some here will take that last sentence as an insult, and they shouldn't, its just business. As a stock holder you want Tesla to know what the competition is doing.

 

[StealthP3D]

And yes, would not be surprised if there was a Mach E and IDs somewhere at Tesla in various forms of tear down too. Now, some here will take that last sentence as an insult, and they shouldn't, its just business.

I don't take that as an insult. As a shareholder I know how hard Tesla employees work and if Elon wants to blow a couple thousand Benjamins on employee entertainment, I'm cool with that. They deserve a good laugh now and then.

 

[JusRelax]

I hear ya, the idea of PMM started when this happened: Tesla Model S Makes Entry Into Bank By Crashing Through Brick Wall

At the time, it was only about a mile from my former house before I moved to Fremont to start at Tesla. This accident really got me thinking how things like this could be prevented.

If the AP system could remember that a parking maneuver had been completed, car was in a parking spot and the path ahead was NOT a drive-able surface, we could predict that the only, high confidence way out is reverse. So when the car was put into 'drive', NOT reverse like expected, then throttle applied, we could have high confidence that was PMM.

So great to see the Andrej videos where PMM has fully mitigated accidents; especially where loss of life would have been the most likely outcome.

I actually suspect that the codebase for this feature is what has now evolved into Tesla's new 'autoshift' feature in the MS Plaid.

 

[Artful Dodger]

These discussions are what used to happen on this forum. Not even sure this one should be called an investment forum anymore.

This forum has long been a showcase for cognitive biases, where any cherry-picked event is heralded as 'end-of-days' in an attempt to make a rhetorical point.

Crypto, and especially personal opinions on the issue, has its own thread on this site. These comments belong there, because here they only lead to a cascade of off-topic replies which makes keeping up with this forum an even tougher slog.

#SIGNAL2NOISE

 

[GOVA]

So... what's your predictions for stonk movement once Q2 deliveries are announced? Down as usual?

 

[UncaNed]

This ... showcase for cognitive biases, where any cherry-picked event is heralded as 'end-of-days' in an attempt to make a rhetorical point...

...of which you speak, just happens to serve as my investment thesis, and has made me what I am today.

(That and a misspent youth watching idiots and falling anvils on kid's cartoons, but I digress)... As if this forum needed any more digression... or leaders... .....