Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Cherry Wine]

Understood - I have updated my analysis and put it in this thread:

Bitcoin - Potential Q2 2021 Impact

Here is my estimate for the Bitcoin Impairment Charge for Q2 2021: Q2 Earnings Outlook with this Impairment:

teslamotorsclub.com

While I think it's great to cross-post these highly informative posts in their own thread, I think they bring substantial value to this thread as well and hope that you will continue to post them here also!

 

[lascavarian]

I feel the S/W needs to be aware of impending collisions and either take defensive action, or not override my attempts to do so.

3 laws anyone? I agree essentially and what happened to me was a situation where moving into the intersection would have resulted in a far more energetic collusion than being rammed by the vehicle behind me (which was stopped). I have been rammed from behind in the past. In this case we have to assume this was an invocation of something similar to PMM but it is possible it is more sophisticated. I guess it will come out in the data someday

 

[Artful Dodger]

So... what's your predictions for stonk movement once Q2 deliveries are announced? Down as usual?

200-day Moving Average until the Share Dividend. Shortzes don't care about 'newz' (they make up anything that suits them).

Wedgie fantasy is that the MA(200) starts to curve down in 14 weeks or so if they can just hold a cap on the SP until around Dec:

Cheers!

 

[goinfraftw]

...Q:

If Starlink paired with the US-focused ISPs (e.g. Verizon, AT&T, etc.)...would that mean those ISPs can now do worldwide roaming and still be in-network?

 

[Mengy]

So... what's your predictions for stonk movement once Q2 deliveries are announced? Down as usual?

I think this time it's going to break out a bit, but not too high. Maybe up and over 700 to 750 later in July where the MM's can find a new plateau to control ad nauseum.

 

[The Accountant]

While I think it's great to cross-post these highly informative posts in their own thread, I think they bring substantial value to this thread as well and hope that you will continue to post them here also!

Yes - if there is significant Bitcoin price move down from here, I would update this thread but I'll keep minor updates in the dedicated thread so that comments back and forth don't clutter this forum.

 

[Krugerrand]

Actually when I give you the number, people won't believe it.
My model states that Tesla needs only 170k deliveries to be GAAP positive without Reg Credits.
Yes...this is below Q1 of 185k deliveries.

Here is why Q2 comes out GAAP +ve with only 170k deliveries:

S&X Refresh Charges
Q1 had charges of 200m for the Model S&X Refresh. In Q2, I include 110m for these charges to cover what is known as idle capacity. That's a 90m reduction to Q1. I believe my Q2 charge of $110m is conservative....it could be much lower

CEO Award Charges
CEO Charges for Q1 $299m
CEO Charges for Q2 $166m

Other Drivers:
Improved margins on shipments to Europe via Shanghai
Improved margins with the Energy Segment

I believe you. Anyone who would choose your profession on purpose clearly has no life outside of the job, therefore must be committed to excellence of accuracy. Plus, loved your movie. Bad caramel corn all day long, every day. Keep up the good work, and diagrams and pictures.

 

[Krugerrand]

Chinese Buick has gone off the rails because of bad batteries.

Electric Vehicle News and Analysis | InsideEVs

Read the latest EV news from the U.S. and around the globe including new model reveals, business news, industry insights, latest technology, and more.

insideevs.com

Oh, our good ole pal A123.

 

[AimStellar]

Explainer: What’s happening with Tesla’s $7 billion German ‘gigafactory’?

1. Bureaucracy has been a headache for Tesla
   • Tesla is working based on preliminary construction permits
     
     
   • Brandenburg's State Environmental Agency must provide final permit to open the plant
     
     
   • Every project that has obtained preliminary permits in Brandenburg eventually received the final 'OK'.
2. The Battery Cell Plant
   • Tesla’s construction plans had to be fully resubmitted earlier this month to reflect the addition of battery cell production to the site
     
     
   • The plant comprises several units to handle component manufacturing and final vehicle assembly, including a press shop, foundry and body production.
     
     
   • It also includes a water recycling facility, a local fire brigade as well as a depot to ensure more efficient transport of components and other goods. Under the plans, the site's power needs are to be met via local renewable energy sources.
     
     
   • The plant will have the capacity to produce 500 million cells totalling 50 gigawatt hours (GWh) a year.
     • That's more than the 40 GWh facility Volkswagen plans to set up about 300 kilometres west near its home base.
       
       
3. Support For The Gigafactory
   • Tesla's move is seen as a major boost to eastern Germany, which has struggled with high unemployment rates and difficulties to attract large industrial firms.
     
     
   • Once fully up and running, the plant, which Tesla said will be the "most advanced high-volume electric vehicle production plant in the world", is expected to create 12,000 jobs and have a capacity of up to 500,000 cars a year.
     
     
   • "We're in favour of a shift towards emission-free mobility and the cars needed to achieve that must be built somewhere," said Ralf Schmilewski, a member of the Greens Party in Gruenheide's neighboring town Erkner.
     
     
4. What's Next?
   • Anyone can file objections until Aug. 16, before the Brandenburg environmental agency decides whether a public discussion should take place on Sept. 13.
     
     
   • After that there is no clear timeline. At some point the agency is expected to grant final approval - but when is anyone's guess.

 

[ChefBoyardee]

So... what's your predictions for stonk movement once Q2 deliveries are announced? Down as usual?

IMO all signs point to a breakout soon:

- We've been flat for 6 months while PE has been falling
- Wedge ends right around Jul 2 with P&D numbers
- Long term trend line and 200DMA have proven to be strong support, we're above them and moving slowly higher
- Rotation out of growth stocks is ending
- Model S & X refresh / plaid will make them high margin vehicles again and will increase volume
- Lower stock compensation hit this quarter
- On the verge of recognizing more deferred revenue from FSD - potentially adding to this quarter's earnings
- Q2 is usually stronger than Q1 due to seasonality
- AI day is coming
- Berlin and Austin coming

TLDR: Stock is de-risked and has been acting healthy for a month now, right at a time where the business is about to explode. I'm thinking a small breakout for P&D, followed by a steady run higher into the end of the year

 

[Artful Dodger]

Hi folks,

IMO, we are now entering the "Battle for the 200-day Moving Average". Here's a chart of the past 200 trading days: [note the MA(200) curve in green]

View attachment 661861

Here are a few simple observations:

• the MA(200) will be flatter for the next 10 sessions, as the SP contributions beginning from July 28, 2020 drop out of the moving avg (one per day)
• shortzes usual technique is to try to 'ride-the-curve' but their immediate problem is that the MA(200) curve is going UP (and they can not stop that)
• there's a large Options expiry event coming up on the 3rd Friday of June (currently 1.06M open contracts for June 19, 2020) with Max Pain at $450
• BUT the "Highest Put" for that day is at the $1 Strike Price which skews Max Pain, so let's also look at an Open Interest Chart:

View attachment 661859
So we do see that there are 29K Put contracts open at the $400 Strike. This will indeed be a powerful lure for options writers (mostly Market Makers), but there are also substantial numbers of Put contracts open at 500, 550, and 600 Strikes.

Normally, hitting the 200-Day Moving Average is like ringing the dinner bell for large funds and retail investors. I do think the recent co-ordinated, comprehensive FUD campaigne has been an attempt to freeze some hands. Luckily, institutional investors don't pay much attention to FUD (especially long debunked and painfuly obvious FUD). Although, doubtless many low-information retail investors will remain on the sideline as they've been coached to do by their mentors at CNBC teletubbies.

So, for something we can quantify, where can the MA(200) go if there is a deliberate effort by shortzes and wedgies to move the SP toward Max Pain for the 3rd Fri in Jun?

Let's do the math (pardon the wait while I tab over to my worksheet)... If the SP marched in equal daily steps starting today to hit the dream value for MMs by their expiry date, even then the MA(200) would peak about 600 on Wed, Jun 16 and still be over 599 on the big Options expiry day, Fri June 18, 2021.

This is up from the current value of around 581, and it is as relentless as the tide, nay a tsnami. Shortzes just can not manipulate the SP hard enough to move the MA(200) like that. IMO, many long-term investors will hear the dinner bell ringing, if shortzes are so foolish as to pursue this misguided course of action.

My conclusion: Imma HODL. Surprise!

Cheers!

Just as a reminder to my May 13, 2021 post, this is what 'riding-the-curve' looks like for the MA(200):

This has been the shortzes strategy for a long time (not just the past 6-wks, prolly since New Years). It's ironic that short sellers have a long term strategy, wot?

But then, shortzes have been trying to kill Tesla for over a decade. Now they can't even slow it down. They absolutely CAN NOT deal with what's coming...

Cheers!

 

[Prunesquallor]

Article published Aug 30, 2018 at 2:21pm ET

My bad. Deleted.

 

[InTheShadows]

This forum has long been a showcase for cognitive biases, where any cherry-picked event is heralded as 'end-of-days' in an attempt to make a rhetorical point.

Crypto, and especially personal opinions on the issue, has its own thread on this site. These comments belong there, because here they only lead to a cascade of off-topic replies which makes keeping up with this forum an even tougher slog.

#SIGNAL2NOISE

My question was in no way related to crypto. My question was what is the GAAP break even for car sales with out regulatory credits. I wanted to know how many sales are needed, which theaccount answered with 170k. I could care less about crypto. I care about how many cars are sold this quarter and how much of the profits TSLA gets to keep and reinvest to more R&D and more factories.

 

[InTheShadows]

I think this time it's going to break out a bit, but not too high. Maybe up and over 700 to 750 later in July where the MM's can find a new plateau to control ad nauseum.

I hope so. We have to get past 637-640 with volume first.

 

[MP3Mike]

My question was in no way related to crypto. My question was what is the GAAP break even for car sales with out regulatory credits. I wanted to know how many sales are needed, which theaccount answered with 170k. I could care less about crypto. I care about how many cars are sold this quarter and how much of the profits TSLA gets to keep and reinvest to more R&D and more factories.

You say you "could care less about crypto" which means you do care about it.

And it directly impacts the answer to your question. If BTC tanks that will be a drag on the GAAP profits and require more cars to be delivered to be break-even.

 

[Nocturnal]

You say you "could care less about crypto" which means you do care about it.

And it directly impacts the answer to your question. If BTC tanks that will be a drag on the GAAP profits and require more cars to be delivered to be break-even.

It looks like we will see a "small" impairment but knock on wood it seems that BTC doesn't want to go much below 30k.

 

[Artful Dodger]

My question was in no way related to crypto. My question was what is the GAAP break even for car sales with out regulatory credits. I wanted to know how many sales are needed, which theaccount answered with 170k. I could care less about crypto. I care about how many cars are sold this quarter and how much of the profits TSLA gets to keep and reinvest to more R&D and more factories.

Hmm, since I did not mention you in my comment, perhaps you think your reply which asked an unrelated question was deemed off-topic? I do not think it was, it's a very reasonable question, and indeed is ON topic for this forum.

Thank-you.

Cheers!

 

[Curt Renz]

My question was in no way related to crypto. My question was what is the GAAP break even for car sales with out regulatory credits. I wanted to know how many sales are needed, which theaccount answered with 170k. I could care less about crypto. I care about how many cars are sold this quarter and how much of the profits TSLA gets to keep and reinvest to more R&D and more factories.

 

[Curt Renz]

Barron's - 22 minutes ago: Tesla and GM Make Out Well in Piper’s 2040 EV Predictions. NIO Is a Bust.

Excerpt:

Potter is predicting the EV takeover of the global automotive industry will be complete in 19 years.

At the top of the market share list sits Volkswagen (ticker: VOW.Germany), not Tesla (TSLA). Potter predicts Volkswagen will sell about 9.2 million EVs in 2040, or 11.4% of the global total.

Tesla investors shouldn’t fret. Potter is a Tesla bull and rates shares Buy. His price target is $1,200 a share, valuing company stock at more than $1 trillion. He predicts Tesla will have a 10.1% market share by 2040, selling about 8.2 million vehicles a year. Tesla sold 500,000 vehicles in 2020.

 

[Mengy]

Tesla investors shouldn’t fret. Potter is a Tesla bull and rates shares Buy. His price target is $1,200 a share, valuing company stock at more than $1 trillion. He predicts Tesla will have a 10.1% market share by 2040, selling about 8.2 million vehicles a year. Tesla sold 500,000 vehicles in 2020.

Um, 8.2 million Tesla's per year in 2040 sounds incredibly low to me? My math puts that volume at more like 2026 to 2027?