Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Artful Dodger]

We are at the upper BB, so I'm guessing we trade fairly flat the next couple days, before climbing end of week (when BB has had more time to move up).

Wedgies working hard to hold TSLA to the Upper-BB right now, waiting for volume to drop off so they can pounce.

Really classic FUD this morning just b4 the Open that China has an energy crunch, so no supply New Energy Vehicles. You just can't make this sugar up (but wedgies can).

Guess they missed the memo that Giga Shanghai is at 2,400 units/day production for September. That's an annualized run rate of over 800K cars per year based on a standard 339 production days in a year.

Then comes the Shanghai Model 二 in about a year...

Cheers!

 

[thx1139]

The headwinds on FSD are strong. Very strong. Almost hurricane force. Everyone - media, Tesla haters, politicians, Biden admin are united to stop Tesla now. I have never seen a united front against one entity like this. Ever. The confrontation between Musk and NTSB chair will not end in Tesla's favor. This will have a huge, as much as 20%, short term downside impact on Tesla.

Media scumbag queen Lora is now the darling for all Tesla haters.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1442290273766109186

I do believe people are overreacting to the Button. I am fairly certain that even after a week Tesla wont just open the beta up to everyone that asked for the button and is deemed a safe drive. The button and the safety score are used to gather more data while 10.1 is tested. The safest people may not even get access until 10.2 if Tesla says nope we want to fix a few more issues before adding more people. I then think it will be a constant addition of people day after day and constant monitoring.

 

[ammulder]

I do believe people are overreacting to the Button. I am fairly certain that even after a week Tesla wont just open the beta up to everyone that asked for the button and is deemed a safe drive. The button and the safety score are used to gather more data while 10.1 is tested. The safest people may not even get access until 10.2 if Tesla says nope we want to fix a few more issues before adding more people. I then think it will be a constant addition of people day after day and constant monitoring.

I wonder how many button clicks they really got? In our little echo chamber it seems like most everybody, but for a "normal owner" it wasn't at all obvious that the button was added. It's not like you visit the Autopilot settings screen routinely, and on top of that the three-checkbox confirmation screen would be pretty sobering (compared to any of the other settings where you just throw a toggle switch and that's that).

 

[thx1139]

I wonder how many button clicks they really got? In our little echo chamber it seems like most everybody, but for a "normal owner" it wasn't at all obvious that the button was added. It's not like you visit the Autopilot settings screen routinely, and on top of that the three-checkbox confirmation screen would be pretty sobering (compared to any of the other settings where you just throw a toggle switch and that's that).

We cant even tap the button yet since were travelling and car is at airport in Chicago.

 

[MP3Mike]

but for a "normal owner" it wasn't at all obvious that the button was added.

Are you saying that a "normal owner" doesn't review the release notes after an update?

 

[Drezil]

Here is a new video from Best In Tesla about ALSET EHOME who are building homes with Tesla Panels and Powerwall to create a neighborhood Virtual Power Plant, and (IIRC), will include a Tesla car with each home purchase.

Lars goes over the details (they sponsor his channel) and points out how the fundamentals underpinning this company look very good.
(also mentions how a recent shorting spree has brought the AEI SP down to a bargain-basement price)

This is another of many builders who are buying Tesla products for the neighborhoods they are creating. This seems quite bullish to me.

I looked deep into that company, when he first got sponsored.

It all seemed a bit fishy for me.
The main guy is someone from Honkong with a dozen companies (just look at the organigram in Form 424B4 at SEC Filings | Alset EHome Intl - page 2 (4 in pdf)).

AEI is just one of his companies & they work together with other publicly traded companies (but all owned & controlled 100% by that one guy being CEO everywhere).

SP was ~30 in January. Since then they diluted the Stock heavily. They increased Share-count by factor of what? 10x? And a lot more via 0.01$-call-options (a new accounting trick i learned) that vest in the future, as their main fund cannot hold more shares (but 0.01$ call-options are NOT shares .. sure .. -.-)... just look at the afromentiend prospectus for more details.

I bought 1000 of it to keep an eye on it every day

They have VERY heavy price swings. 20% a day is not unusual.

I want to believe that there are all reasonable explanations for things that AEI does. And i think they are honest & really want that. But if things implode, then only the public investors seem to be on the hook .. - at least that is what it looks to me.

But if it works out it could set a precedent. And the currently have Tesla Roofers installing SolarRoof & Powerwalls... So if others follow that this could be very good for TSLA as well.

 

[Gigapress]

I wonder how many button clicks they really got? In our little echo chamber it seems like most everybody, but for a "normal owner" it wasn't at all obvious that the button was added. It's not like you visit the Autopilot settings screen routinely, and on top of that the three-checkbox confirmation screen would be pretty sobering (compared to any of the other settings where you just throw a toggle switch and that's that).

Our echo chamber probably biases our perception but also only purchasers of FSD can request Beta. Most of these Tesla owners are the most hardcore fans and they have been waiting a long time for FSD capabilities and have paid several thousand dollars for a license or $200/month for a subscription. I would bet most of them want Beta as soon as Tesla will grant them access.

 

[ammulder]

Are you saying that a "normal owner" doesn't review the release notes after an update?

I don't remember getting the release notes popup for this update. Maybe I was too excited to get to the button?

 

[2daMoon]

The whale song seems to be working.

Thar she blows!

 

[Artful Dodger]

Tesla's Shanghai Gigafactory production sprint, with a daily production of 1,600 Model Y | Google Translate

021/9/26 16:44:21 Source: House of IT Author: Q Zhou Editor: Q boat

"IT Home News on September 26 According to the previous export rules, Tesla will export a large number of exports at the beginning of each quarter. For example, this situation was similar in April and July this year, and it is expected to be the same in October.

"The current production capacity of Tesla's Shanghai plant is mainly responsible for export business. Cars in Europe can only be exported by sea at the beginning of the season. This is the case in April, July, and it is estimated that it will be the same in October.

"According to Sina, with the end of the third quarter, Tesla's Shanghai Gigafactory began to enter the final production sprint stage.

"As can be seen from the pictures taken by them, there are already a large number of Tesla Model Y and Model 3 cars ready to go, which also shows that the demand in the third quarter is strong.

"According to sources, Tesla’s Shanghai Gigafactory now produces 1,600 Model Ys per day, a significant increase from the previous month. In contrast, Tesla's Shanghai plant produced 1,000 Model Y a day in August, which is far more than the average daily Model 3 number of 800.

"IT Home learned that in August, Tesla China exported 31,379 vehicles from the Shanghai plant. In August, the domestic sales volume was 12,885 vehicles, and the wholesale sales volume reached 44,264 vehicles.

"As of August, Tesla China has exported 97,496 vehicles to more than 10 countries and regions including Europe, America, Australia, Japan, South Korea, and Singapore in 2021. According to a related person from Tesla, from the perspective of the development of the industrial chain, Tesla's Shanghai Super Factory continues to accelerate the localization process. As of the end of 2020, the localization rate of parts for Tesla's Shanghai Gigafactory has reached 86%."

 

[ZsoZso]

Hiro chimes in as well. Bullish :

https://twitter.com/x/status/1442442018181976066

I can see GoJo getting excited, if he hangs on a little longer, surely his favourite topic of Tesla DEMAND PROBLEMS will become reality !
After all once Tesla's car output is greater than the mass of the earth, there is no way to find enough demand for them

BTW: if Tesla hits 20 million car production in 2030, and maintains 50+% growth YoY, then by 2035 they will produce more cars than the entire global market.

 

[Chunky Jr.]

The whale song seems to be working.

Thar she blows!

seems like a bunch of things are moving on the same trajectory - NASDAQ, ARKK, ARKG, AMZN, MSFT, APPL, GOOG, DIS, to name a few. Probably some progress on infrastructure

 

[Nocturnal]

Once again the haters and media shills are looking at Elon's figurative Magician's assistant and not seeing the slight of hand he is performing in regards to using safety data to allow FSD access, while encouraging owners to drive even safer than normal and prepping us for Tesla insurance. Not to mention all the new data that might be mined from this.

Edit, are momentum traders jumping in with us this morning?

 

[Artful Dodger]

only purchasers of FSD can request Beta.

FSD monthly subscribers can also request the FSD beta. Still, Elon has made it abundantly clear that is will be a slow, deliberate rollout that maximizes safety.

I expect that what Elon told us will happen (repeatedly) is what will actually happen. This, in spite of the Media's attempted distortions.

 

[S3XY]

I think we just passed today's MMD.

 

[pitabun]

FSD monthly subscribers can also request the FSD beta. Still, Elon has made it abundantly clear that is will be a slow, deliberate rollout that maximizes safety.

I expect that what Elon told us will happen (repeatedly) is what will actually happen. This, in spite of the Media's attempted distortions.

I wonder if the roll-out will focus on highest scores nation wide, or regional with a score at x ~ higher.

 

[Nocturnal]

FSD monthly subscribers can also request the FSD beta. Still, Elon has made it abundantly clear that is will be a slow, deliberate rollout that maximizes safety.

I expect that what Elon told us will happen (repeatedly) is what will actually happen. This, in spite of the Media's attempted distortions.

I assume they are going to roll it out to X number of people a week. Probably either a minimum safety threshold (say it's 90+) + the length of the ownership of FSD, or just taking the top safest people each round (if they have enough miles to make it useful).

 

[Artful Dodger]

I think we just passed today's MMD.

And the S&P 500...

Cheers!

 

[Discoducky]

I BTC my rolled calls from last week for 30k in losses. Still great to see the stock going up though. Yeah HODL shares!

It seems that we are on the cusp of a big move and I don't want to lose any shares. If Shanghai is really outputting at a 800k annualized rate I'll be the first to say I didn't see that coming...

 

[SarahsDad]

Our echo chamber probably biases our perception but also only purchasers of FSD can request Beta. Most of these Tesla owners are the most hardcore fans and they have been waiting a long time for FSD capabilities and have paid several thousand dollars for a license or $200/month for a subscription. I would bet most of them want Beta as soon as Tesla will grant them access.

I just asked a Model 3+FSD coworker if she planned on getting FSD Beta. She said no, too much hassle with all the Safety Score stuff. She’ll wait for the “full release”. I suspect outside our echo chamber there are many like this.