Welcome to Tesla Motors Club
Discuss Tesla's Model S, Model 3, Model X, Model Y, Cybertruck, Roadster and More.
Register

Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

Knightshade

Well-Known Member
Jul 31, 2017
14,154
24,977
NC
Lane departure warnings affect your score

They actually don't.


There's multiple threads about the score and how it works over in the FSD section-- but it legitimately does promote some odd driving if you're trying to max your score right now.

Which is probably part of why Tesla is clear the current formula is beta and likely will change over time.
 

Knightshade

Well-Known Member
Jul 31, 2017
14,154
24,977
NC
I've begun wondering if the chip shortage is a more palatable thing to say than "consumers don't want what we got".



That would be a more credible theory if there weren't also chip shortages in tons of other industries where demand is very demonstrable huge (GPUs for example).


What we're seeing here isn't legacy making up an excuse- their excuse is 100% true.

What we're seeing is Tesla not having the same problems because they can actually adapt to use whatever's available instead of ONLY being able to use "Specific Bosch Chip #324 we speced 9 years ago and don't understand how it works or how to change anything on"
 

aronth5

Long Time Follower
Supporting Member
May 8, 2010
3,079
2,545
Boston Suburb
“Sure I ran them over, but I kept my Safety Score at 100 so I can use FSD Beta!”

said the man in jail.
Funny, but Tesla and Elon are going to get exactly the type of driver they want for FSD. A driver who will monitor FSD and their surroundings insuring they will take over quickly and avoid accidents. Its no surprise Elon pointed out there are 2k FSD beta drivers with no accidents in the past year. Drivers that don't care about their Safety score probably won't monitor FSD as well as they should and Tesla knows that.
 

BornToFly

Active Member
Supporting Member
May 8, 2013
2,525
20,406
43,000 feet
Eh, I'm not so sure they're wrong.

I think the problem is not the algorithm but prioritizing by top scores for beta access. That means you have to do what you have to do if you want the beta ASAP. Yellow light? Better to run it than to brake. Sharp curve? Better to cut across the yellow line to make it less sharp than take the "aggressive turning" hit. Get cut off? Better to brake gently and nearly rear-end than to brake hard at a safe distance. This is all "un-safe" but it's what it takes to get to the front of the list. And Elon said it's a surprisingly big list, so your place matters.

This setup just rewards some bad things.

I don't think they should be offering beta access in top-score order. I think they should establish a cutoff, say 90, and then lottery off the limited number of spots each day among everyone deemed "safe" (e.g. at or above that threshold). There should be some wiggle room to take some dings to your score in the name of *actual safety* and still reach the milestone of qualifying for the first group. Someone who runs yellow lights isn't going to be a better beta supervisor than someone who doesn't.

(Of course, this is all very short-term -- it sounded like a couple weeks to work down the list from the 100s to the 80s.)
The problem I'm finding is the score is not accurate AT ALL. I live in the mountains. The highways have curves. I'm doing the speed limit and have red for cornering. Yesterday I was using Autopilot and had a phantom braking event with nothing in front of me. Got a red score for front collision warning.... :mad:
 

elasalle

driVIN(188xx) it !!
Jan 26, 2016
4,969
30,420
VA

Mengy

Member
Feb 18, 2020
926
7,309
PA
Thus far Tesla has done a stellar job of developing and executing fast workarounds for such issues. That very fast reaction and manufacturing change to cope with unforeseen events distinguishes Tesla (and SpaceX) from nearly everyone else.

This right here is one of the aspects of Tesla which impresses me the most. I worked in manufacturing for four decades and the speed and swiftness which Tesla reacts to supply chain issues is astonishing.
 

Krugerrand

Enough of the 🐩, back to 🐈‍⬛
Jul 13, 2012
11,892
71,669
Tesla friendly place
Eh, I'm not so sure they're wrong.

I think the problem is not the algorithm but prioritizing by top scores for beta access. That means you have to do what you have to do if you want the beta ASAP. Yellow light? Better to run it than to brake. Sharp curve? Better to cut across the yellow line to make it less sharp than take the "aggressive turning" hit. Get cut off? Better to brake gently and nearly rear-end than to brake hard at a safe distance. This is all "un-safe" but it's what it takes to get to the front of the list. And Elon said it's a surprisingly big list, so your place matters.

This setup just rewards some bad things.

I don't think they should be offering beta access in top-score order. I think they should establish a cutoff, say 90, and then lottery off the limited number of spots each day among everyone deemed "safe" (e.g. at or above that threshold). There should be some wiggle room to take some dings to your score in the name of *actual safety* and still reach the milestone of qualifying for the first group. Someone who runs yellow lights isn't going to be a better beta supervisor than someone who doesn't.

(Of course, this is all very short-term -- it sounded like a couple weeks to work down the list from the 100s to the 80s.)
🤦

If only half the brain power used to find fault in the world at every turn were used toward good, positive thought, I might actually believe we had a chance.
 

Ogre

Active Member
Sep 6, 2021
1,099
4,157
Oregon
This right here is one of the aspects of Tesla which impresses me the most. I worked in manufacturing for four decades and the speed and swiftness which Tesla reacts to supply chain issues is astonishing.
Big auto has already suggested this is a negative.

From an article about how far behind the technology curve they are:
Most systems in cars are safety-critical and need to perform in practically every situation regardless of temperature, humidity, vibrations, and even minor road debris. With so much at stake, tried and true is better than new and improved.
 

Tyler34

Member
Dec 11, 2019
520
3,899
Oregon
This was debunked the last time we had the "Troys numbers suck" conversation.

AD made the same, untrue, claim- and Troys own numbers that were posted going back years debunked it. Troy provided his start and end numbers by quarter, and the real number for each.

He was wrong to the HIGH side at start of quarter more often than the other way around (though it was like a 60/40 split)


I agree his overall numbers and results aren't awesome- but the bias people keep insisting is there simply isn't.
I just dont understand why we have to discuss this daily in this thread. I wish we could file "bashing troys numbers" right there with "anything gojo says" in the same cabinet as the other dead horses.
 

lascavarian

little endian
Supporting Member
Jul 27, 2017
1,429
8,133
usa
I've begun wondering if the chip shortage is a more palatable thing to say than "consumers don't want what we got".
I think there is something to this sentiment. "Chip shortage" has 2 functions now, it explains falling sales of traditional auto makers (as well as supporting pricing). Similarly, there is a bit of separation of Tesla related to chips where Tesla is not credited with besting the other traditional makers via some intimation that larger volume increases the impact of sourcing chips. None of this holds up very well IMO.

Tesla kicks a$$ at manufacturing. It is trench warfare for them and they are experienced with it. They have learned to deliver product at a level of survival instinct effort. Hats off!!

As for today, volume seems the question. When volume surrenders to fear and uncertainty then direction drifts. Next week is another battle with new facts to steer direction IMO.
 

MaxPain

Member
Apr 6, 2018
79
433
USA
I'm curious on people's thoughts regarding the Model S and X refresh delays. I've been waiting for my S since 4/1 and my date keeps getting pushed. Is it because parts (I'm thinking those AMD chips are hard to come by) or is it that it is taking more time to ramp up production on the new line or are they pumping them out as much as the 3/Y but there is a huge backlog?
 

adiggs

Well-Known Member
Supporting Member
Sep 25, 2012
5,272
17,661
Portland, OR
I think there is something to this sentiment. "Chip shortage" has 2 functions now, it explains falling sales of traditional auto makers (as well as supporting pricing). Similarly, there is a bit of separation of Tesla related to chips where Tesla is not credited with besting the other traditional makers via some intimation that larger volume increases the impact of sourcing chips. None of this holds up very well IMO.

Tesla kicks a$$ at manufacturing. It is trench warfare for them and they are experienced with it. They have learned to deliver product at a level of survival instinct effort. Hats off!!

As for today, volume seems the question. When volume surrenders to fear and uncertainty then direction drifts. Next week is another battle with new facts to steer direction IMO.
I'm also starting to wonder if Tesla is getting preferential treatment from some of their suppliers (such as the chip suppliers). Relatively small volumes today from a company that looks like its going to be the volume leader before too awful long. For the suppliers play a bit of the long game and make sure they're in good with an obvious candidate. And the actual cost is relatively small - Tesla is still a pretty small buyer from a units perspective.
 

GleanerC

Member
Supporting Member
Jun 3, 2014
38
287
Kansas
I don’t post very often but have been reading the majority of the comments here on the Investors Forum for a few years. I can’t express how helpful this forum has been to me and what a significant difference this has made for our family.

As of today my wife transitions to half-time at work with her full retirement date being the end of this year. I get to step into early retirement this next week. We were also able to purchase our first Tesla, a Model Y, recently, we’re thrilled with it. We’ve been committed to the transition to a more sustainable energy future for a long time, having installed solar in 2012 and driving a Chevy Volt since 2013 among many other things. What a super bonus to not only to be able to invest in a company that is working towards this future but then to be rewarded with the returns we’ve received.

None of this would have been possible had it not been for the vast majority of posters here who so freely share their thoughts and time. Thank you. You helped us develop and hone our investment thesis and stick with it through both stock price highs and lows.

Thank you to the moderators who give of their time and try to keep us on track. (must feel like trying to herd cats most of the time) Thank you to many of the frequent posters, both present, and past, who bring so much to this board. I certainly feel I’ve gained an education over the last few years.

Very grateful. Thank you.
 

lascavarian

little endian
Supporting Member
Jul 27, 2017
1,429
8,133
usa
In the end Tesla can choose who they want (among those that want) for the beta using the criteria they want to use. And I'll get to join in the fun when I get to join in. As a long time investor I hope for sooner than later in my case - I want hands on experience with this component of my investment sooner than later. I might need to buy moar!
This mostly matches my sentiment. Who am I to judge their selection criteria. They seem to be doing fine and progress is more evident than in the past.

What I am beginning to ponder is when the addition of features will be final? They have just added "reverse" as a feature. I expect at some time they will have to add control of the charge port door for autonomous charging IMO. Anything else required for FSD?
 

lascavarian

little endian
Supporting Member
Jul 27, 2017
1,429
8,133
usa
I'm also starting to wonder if Tesla is getting preferential treatment from some of their suppliers (such as the chip suppliers). Relatively small volumes today from a company that looks like its going to be the volume leader before too awful long. For the suppliers play a bit of the long game and make sure they're in good with an obvious candidate. And the actual cost is relatively small - Tesla is still a pretty small buyer from a units perspective.
It could be supplier foresight that is helping Tesla get some preference based on accelerating buying.

Although it has been a while, my experience is that "great" engineers have a bit of a love affair with the spec books that lay out the features and abilities of the latest chip designs. Others just toss them in the can. If you can make the effort to use the latest products then you "may" get the benefit of the sales curve on your side. Additionally, prices are likely to fall.

If OTOH, you just buy what is cheapest, you may find you are on the short end of production because you are buying a design that is being closed out and prices may even go the other way on decreasing supply.
 

Krugerrand

Enough of the 🐩, back to 🐈‍⬛
Jul 13, 2012
11,892
71,669
Tesla friendly place
During my 45 year professional career I helped create, worked in or helped dismantle many joint ventures. Factually, more than 100, in many countries, at least a few on every permanently populated continent. None have been successful unless one side had absolute control and the other acted as a supplier or semi-passive investor.

Thus entities such as Airbus, Shell, SWIFT and the ones that have been structured to actually avoid governance issues by not really being quite JV's (e.g. Apple/Foxconn, Tesla/Panasonic) are not really exceptions to the rule. Even those have periodic crises that threaten their survival.

Frankly I think it would be quite plausible for Tesla to have relationships with OEM'S, public energy utilities, mining companies and others that could be durable and beneficial. For example, CATL seems quite close to that already. Probably there are a fair number of other suppliers and customers (mostly in TE, probably) already in that category. We will also see some emerging JV-like relationships with financial institutions including insurance companies.

As Tesla grows there will be more and more of those. It is not implausible for those to develop from Supercharger sharing, tier one suppliers beyond batteries (is LK/IDRA already there?) and more.
We don't really need to have the old-fashioned JV's to extract the benefits without enduring the pain.

Whether we like it or not the hugely complex supply chain issues are now being sources of conflict and outright business failures. Government policies play an outsized role in that (see UK today for reference). So too do business short-term thinking (see semiconductor crisis for reference).

Thus far Tesla has done a stellar job of developing and executing fast workarounds for such issues. That very fast reaction and manufacturing change to cope with unforeseen events distinguishes Tesla (and SpaceX) from nearly everyone else.

This quarter Tesla once again proven that it has manufacturing, design and process advantages oven nearly all competitors. Those would ahem been impossible if Tesla did not have very close connections with myriad outside entities. They don't call them JV's or anything like that.

Less us consider those things when we observe business volume and profit numbers from Tesla.
I actually believe Tesla has succeeded more because they’re willing to do it themselves as relying on others has brought on many of the issues.

We need more batteries. We’re telling the whole world we need more batteries. Who moved first? Tesla. It doesn’t count after the fact in my world.

We need to improve manufacturing processes. Make better use of factory space. Simplify the process. Make cars like Mattel makes toys. Who moved first? Tesla.

Make us space age doors. We tried, we failed. Never mind we’ll do it ourselves.

Build us safe and comfortable seats for cars. Pfft! Never mind we’ll do it.

More raw materials? Fine we’ll look into going directly to the mines.
We need special stainless steel - meh, we’ll come up with the formula ourselves. Oh, did we forget Tesla’s foundry?

Solar has to have battery storage and an integrated inverter and smart software - yup, we got this ourselves.

Chip shortage? Fine, we’ll just do some new software so we can use whatever chips we can get our hands on. Oh, it’s too expensive for Tesla to mfg their own chips. Uh, huh.

Insurance costs our customers too much. Fine, we’ll do that too.

And we’ll build our own AI stuff and Dojo and a Tesla bot and on the list goes.

I think it irks Elon to no end that he has to depend on others; others who move like snails, others who can’t deliver what they promise, others who don’t get it.

How many times has he said in frustration, we can only go as fast as the slowest part? We have to go faster.

No. As much as you think partnerships and relationships will grow in number and significance, I believe the opposite will happen simply because nobody to date has stepped up to the table and laid it all out. Everyone else is playing at it. Some playing better, but nobody risking everything for all except Elon and his companies.
 

Electroman

Well-Known Member
Aug 18, 2012
6,525
7,872
TX
I hope this works .... I've been watching Elon for two years now. And while I appreciate what he has done for me, and is doing for the world, I always saw him as having an inferiority vibe. To me he's uncomfortable all the time... I don't know what it is..sometimes I think he's tired of herding cats, other times I think he just feels like he is incapable of making anyone understand him...
But dude! If this photo shows up (my tweet skills are in embryonic form) look at this image. You know he's the man, the photographer knows he's the man, the graduates know he's the man. And he knows we all know..the truth.
The photographer captured it perfectly... look at the graduates in the background. Most of them are no longer facing the stage.Even though Elon has his back to them and is walking away, and is far from them there are still quite a few staring at him.

Was he famous even when he was at college? What was his accomplishment at that time for him to be famous?
 

Products we're discussing on TMC...

About Us

Formed in 2006, Tesla Motors Club (TMC) was the first independent online Tesla community. Today it remains the largest and most dynamic community of Tesla enthusiasts. Learn more.

Do you value your experience at TMC? Consider becoming a Supporting Member of Tesla Motors Club. As a thank you for your contribution, you'll get nearly no ads in the Community and Groups sections. Additional perks are available depending on the level of contribution. Please visit the Account Upgrades page for more details.


SUPPORT TMC
Top