Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Remster32]

Great info! Do you have the old estimates for Q3, by any chance? Would be interested to know how it compares to Factset, plus we might be able to figure out which analysts Factset uses with a little math.

Yeah I got them!

I am not sure why the average does not equal the consensus on the dot. It shows correctly for the current quarter, but maybe there's an issue with numbers after the earnings report. I still hope this can help.

Also the 5 undisclosed firms do not necessarily match the revenues and EPS. I have no way to discern who's who. Does anyone know who these firms could be by the way? Who covers Tesla that isn't on this list?

 

[dc_h]

View attachment 367985 I’ll say it again, SpaceX dividend. Some smart people disagreed, but it really does look awesome and YES, that is a real picture. View attachment 367970

Odd, the render got uploaded. I updated with the real picture.

The update is real, according to Elon musk on Twitter. Sorry for my error on the image upload. Never had so many disagrees and surprising no one else saw the tweet.

 

[Oil4AsphaultOnly]

Wrong. Follow the tweet, that’s the real thing. Get close up on the engine area and it’s less polished.

But maybe you know better than Elon Musk. You, probably you know better, definitely for sure.

Elon Musk on Twitter

Not sure why people disagreed with you here?! It's the actual tweet for crying out loud!

And here's another angle for the doubters: Evelyn Janeidy Arevalo on Twitter

 

[printf42]

Anyone have idea if/when Tesla would disclose GF3 funding?
If it’s a loan, will it need to be filed together with a quarterly report? Like previous convertibles?
And if that’s true, have they took the loan already in Q4 or not yet?

I am looking at the Shanghai Disneyland project, which went through similar funding, it broke ground on April 2011, and only secured the loans around April 2012. I don't think GF3 will take that long since it's expected to start production this year.
But, usually they would take the loan before or after groundbreaking?

 

[RobStark]

Meme template

 

[SPadival]

Glovis has berthed ..European Model 3 on the way .. But but, homologation.

Walter MacVane on Twitter

 

[Tslynk67]

Reuters is reporting what they call an "exclusive", to be presented in detail tomorrow, Friday, in an release dated 4pm Alaska Time:

According to this report, GM is handing over to Cadillac the reins for spearheading GM's push into the EV world. Cadillac will present its vehicle on the so-called "BEV3" platform; other than that, including what kind of vehicle will first emerge, have not been announced.

Link here:
Exclusive: GM's Cadillac will introduce EV in fight against Tesla - sources | Reuters

No offence, but where's the "Zzz zzz" button when you need it?

 

[Tslynk67]

I'm back with the detailed First Call TSLA Q4 revenue estimates:

(In $ millions)
BofAML 6,926.6
Canaccord 7,715.0
Deutsche 6,976.1
Elazar Advisors 7,084.2
Evercore 6,805.5
Goldman Sachs 6,851.1
JMP 6,848.7
JPMorgan 7,020.0
Macquiarie 7,089.9
Needham 7,523.4
Oppenheimer 7,440.8
Piper 7,226.1
RBC 7,139.3
Roth 6,985.0
UBS 6,820.2
Undisclosed 6,895.0
Undisclosed 7,192.0
Undisclosed 7,032.0
Undisclosed 7,067.2
Wedbush 7,188.5
Wolfe Research 6,899.0

Consensus 7,082.2
Maximum 7,715.0
Minimum 6,805.5

Excluded
Undisclosed 6,749.0

Would be great if you could get some screen-captures with date and time for some of these...

 

[MP3Mike]

Not sure why people disagreed with you here?! It's the actual tweet for crying out loud

Maybe because he posted a render and claimed it was a real picture. Even after people told him it wasn't he claimed it was real.

 

[RobStark]

Remember when TSLAQ was gloating Jaguar was eating Tesla's cheese in Norway?

Well, Jaguar shifted I-Pace supply to The Netherlands for December and look what happened in Norway.

EV Sales: Norway December 2018

Jaguar moved 165 I-Paces in Norway for December and ended up in 17th place for the year.

 

[lklundin]

Tesla announces massive increase in Model S and Y and SP goes up. Good day.

What is the price of the Model Y now ?

 

[Causalien]

I have a Chinese friend who has Japanese friends. Usually once a year they (him and his parents) go back to visit friends and family both in Hong Kong and mainland China, and they usually swing by Japan as well for tourism and to visit friends there. We might just barely be considered "millennials" depending on who you ask but his parents are definitely from an older generation. IIRC they got here from HK via Guam then Canada, naturalized in Canada, then moved to the US and naturalized here. I have no doubt there's plenty of racism to go around in general, but not all Chinese hate all Japanese and vice-versa. If it were only himself that displayed no racism towards Japan then you might argue it was a shared love of car culture that bridged the international gap, but his parents aren't racists either.

Not racism. I doubt the chinese looks at japanese as lesser human. It is more of a "your grandparents raped and killed my aunt" type of thing.

In any case. Back to the original and relevant topic to tsla. The whole thing is "face". It is bad optics if TSLA import Japanese battery to build Chinese tsla cars when there are competitive Lithium battery makers in China. It will be a slsp in the chinese gov's face. Hence bad optics. Most of the political decision makers that matters are of the older generation who has the rape of Nanking hammered into their head since they were kids.

If, tsla uses chinese battery makers and found the defective rate to be worst and later switch, it is the chinese battery maker who will be slapped for failing to live up to their pride. We want to retain all the political advantage we can get in China as theor state can directly influence businesses.

 

[BioSehnsucht]

Is this Elon + Mackenzie thing that keeps popping up just some kind of joking wishful thinking ("Imagine what he could do with all those Billions!") or is there some actual existing relationship, friendship or something I'm not aware of?

 

[Tslynk67]

Not sure why people disagreed with you here?! It's the actual tweet for crying out loud!

And here's another angle for the doubters: Evelyn Janeidy Arevalo on Twitter

Wait a minute, isn't that Fremont?

 

[Buckminster]

To solve the problem of this thread getting OT all too often, I suggest we use the existing other threads more. A staged Karen Vs neroden Vs FC fight to the death argument would please the punters. I suggest the 3 of them get over to this thread (updated by myself with Remster32's kind updates). Suggested topic for argument:
Will the Q4 GAAP EPS beat the non-GAAP consensus from First Call of 2.25? Prof to referee.

If that is seen as too ill-considered, I have set up another thread for all OT discussion. It won't get used - but at least I can sleep at night:
OT dumping ground (no cats please - they are sacred creatures)

 

[Mich]

Glovis has berthed ..European Model 3 on the way .. But but, homologation.

Walter MacVane on Twitter

How many days does it take for this ship for SFO to Europe?

 

[SteveG3]

I'm a long time lurker but I keep seeing requests for these numbers so I thought I'd help contribute.

I have access to First Call, which is an equivalent of FactSet, just run by Nasdaq. They might differ marginally due to who they include and don't include in their consensus, but with a company like Tesla the differences should be negligible.I can also see all of the estimates listed individually and the ones that are included in consensus vs. not are marked as well. If anyone wants a deeper look I can totally do that.

For TSLA Q4 from First Call:
Revenue: 7,082.2
EPS: 2.25
Free Cash Flow: 405.6

Appreciate your help Remster.

I see that the First Call numbers you have access to reflect 22 analysts' estimates being used for the average.

The FactSet Q4 delivery estimate that the media referenced as having been missed last week was based on forecasts from 9 analysts.

As far as the Q4 delivery estimate, the data sets appear far from equivalent. It is conceivable that they are the same data sets, but, only 9 of the 22 analysts gave explicit production or delivery targets for Q4. I'm skeptical of that. I think they are different data sets. Another possibility, they do use the same data sets, but, FactSet cherry picked the data they presented at the time Tesla released actual production and delivery numbers. That is, it's possible they choose a small sampling of the analysts number to create a sampling that had a higher average estimate for deliveries than what Tesla announced, resulting in a "delivery miss" false narrative.

Again, it's possible that they are equivalent data sets... I'm wondering, was there some source you've seen that explicitly stated this?

 

[oneday]

How many days does it take for this ship for SFO to Europe?

Well it looks like that ship averaged about 15 mph on its trip from Portland to San Francisco. If it is indeed traveling from San Francisco and going through the Panama Canal direct to somewhere near Tillburg, averages about the same speed, back of napkin math comes out to 28 days no stops.

 

[UnknownSoldier]

To solve the problem of this thread getting OT all too often, I suggest we use the existing other threads more. A staged Karen Vs neroden Vs FC fight to the death argument would please the punters. I suggest the 3 of them get over to this thread (updated by myself with Remster32's kind updates). Suggested topic for argument:
Will the Q4 GAAP EPS beat the non-GAAP consensus from First Call of 2.25? Prof to referee.

If that is seen as too ill-considered, I have set up another thread for all OT discussion. It won't get used - but at least I can sleep at night:
OT dumping ground (no cats please - they are sacred creatures)

Internet arguments are boring. I suggest that all disagreements going forward be resolved in the steel cage I will set up expressly for dispute resolution on TMC. Tickets will be sold at the door for $5 each. Matches will follow UFC rules. Your ticket purchases will be used to defray the costs of paying the referee for the matches.

From now, you guys will TAKE IT TO THE OCTAGON!

 

[SteveG3]

To solve the problem of this thread getting OT all too often, I suggest we use the existing other threads more. A staged Karen Vs neroden Vs FC fight to the death argument would please the punters. I suggest the 3 of them get over to this thread (updated by myself with Remster32's kind updates). Suggested topic for argument:
Will the Q4 GAAP EPS beat the non-GAAP consensus from First Call of 2.25? Prof to referee.

If that is seen as too ill-considered, I have set up another thread for all OT discussion. It won't get used - but at least I can sleep at night:
OT dumping ground (no cats please - they are sacred creatures)

My suggestion re the volume of posts in this thread,

1) Let this thread basically be the catch all it is

2) Create a new thread: "Tesla Material Event & TSLA Market Impacting Event Ticker"

In the new thread, only post new material information re Tesla & TSLA price movement*- from Tesla releases, to analyst reports/interviews, to Elon tweets, changes showing up on Tesla's websites, media reports, bigger picture analysis of markets Tesla is addressing (i.e. autonomy, energy storage), new trends/developments showing up in other sections of TMC with material impact (i.e, people discovering an unannounced change to new vehicles delivered), etc.

No analysis from us

No commentary/conjecture from us

Just a thread re new Tesla events.

Such a thread can be used in a matter of minutes to determine whether a 5% move in the stock is a reaction to a known event, or, for no known particular reason.

Such a thread can also be used when we might only have 20 minutes per day to scan through it and read any linked ticker items we find important to be aware of... and then call it a day for our Tesla monitoring.

The thread would have the ancillary benefit of becoming something of a reference tool- a concise chronological recording of significant Tesla developments.

All it would take is working together to build up the habit of putting such content in the new, very lean, thread.

The analysis of these events, commentary and conjecture, can carry on in this existing thread we've been using this year. The new "event ticker" thread would probably add less than 3 pages... per week : )

3) There are minor tweaks we can try to make this existing 2019 thread... the "OT" marking seems useful. I'm sure we have some other ideas for tweaks re this thread (I know I have one or two), but, first, I'm wondering if you find the "event ticker" thread an interesting idea.

If there's strong interest, I'm very confident we could make this work.


* Material information re TSLA price movement, of course, could include misinformation about Tesla. ie, the 'hit pieces' we have become quite accustom to seeing, sometimes are clearly being picked up by many media outlets, and can impact the price in the short-term. These are arguably not material Tesla events... but for hours or days, material TSLA movement events.