Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Mengy]

Why TSLA is soo red all macros are positives actually???

I've got a lot of red on my watchlists, looks more like a neutral start to this morning to me.

TSLA is likely dropping due to investors frightened by Elon selling shares. It will bounce back in time once this all blows over.

 

[bro1999]

I've got a lot of red on my watchlists, looks more like a neutral start to this morning to me.

TSLA is likely dropping due to investors frightened by Elon selling shares. It will bounce back in time once this all blows over.

That and I think RIVN is stealing some of the thunder right now, as it's still the new "hot" EV/tech stock. RIVN up 5% currently.

 

[Knightshade]

Windows open 48hrs after earnings report and remains open for 20 trading days. So 18th or 19th of Nov is the last day?

https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1164964/000101968715004168/globalfuture_8k-ex9904.htm#:~:text=An%20Insider%20should%20never%20trade,a%20legitimate%20Company%20business%20purpose.

As someone pointed out to me in another thread- that document is not from Tesla

It's from some other company called Global Future.

It's not an SEC rule, it's just the company in questions rule.

So it seems like the Bill Wright tweet from earlier still applies as to the actual window allowed unless you have an SEC doc that's from Tesla?

 

[larmor]

I've got a lot of red on my watchlists, looks more like a neutral start to this morning to me.

TSLA is likely dropping due to investors frightened by Elon selling shares. It will bounce back in time once this all blows over.

"TSLA is likely dropping due to algobots taking advantage of investors frightened by Elon selling shares. It will bounce back in time once this all blows over." FTFY

 

[Todd Burch]

Just FYI, if there is an increase in the capital gains taxe rates for next year, it would not be out of the question for the market as a whole to drop at the end of the year as selling is pulled forward at a lower tax basis. Tesla could go down with it.

The proposal up now (which is not likely to pass IMO) and other proposals like it that look to increase capital gains tax almost always state that the proposed rate goes into effect immediately when the proposal is submitted, for this very reason.

So if a proposal to increase capital gains tax by 5% is drawn up on November 1, it is written to be retroactive to all sales made starting on November 1, to prevent this effect.

 

[tivoboy]

High Net-worth Individuals Would Feel the Effects of the Proposed Capital Gains Tax Increase - Anders CPA

Pending legislation would mean a significant increase in capital gains tax for high net-worth individuals. Here's what you can expect to see.

anderscpa.com

September 13th. Which is weird because wasn’t EM’s plan to sell shares this week adopted on September 14th? Maybe they couldn’t get it filed in time. The shares sold tied to that adoption will cost him an extra 8.8% in capital gains tax if that bill is passed

High Net-worth Individuals Would Feel the Effects of the Proposed Capital Gains Tax Increase - Anders CPA

Pending legislation would mean a significant increase in capital gains tax for high net-worth individuals. Here's what you can expect to see.

anderscpa.com

September 13th. Which is weird because wasn’t EM’s plan to sell shares this week adopted on September 14th? Maybe they couldn’t get it filed in time. The shares sold tied to that adoption will cost him an extra 8.8% in capital gains tax if that bill is passed

yes, I guess the most recent legislative proposal pushed it back a couple months. At some point, if nothing gets done even just before the end of the year, they won’t be able to justify a back dating, or would it make too much difference. I DO think we’re going to have a more general increase in volatility and overall mkt pull back the week of 12/13/21 with possible spill over into the beginning of the week of 12/20/21. So, keep your eye on the ball.

 

[ZachF]

Pretty subtle dig, if you ask me. If a dig at all. Biden is going to have to acknowledge Tesla's and SpaceX's existence at some point. The sooner, the better.

I wouldn’t hold my breath on that front.

 

[brianhn1]

Probably reality: EM wakes up, looks at clock (9:30AM EST), gets his phone and opens Robinhood app. Press market order sell then swipes up, MMD occurs.

 

[mongo]

As someone pointed out to me in another thread- that document is not from Tesla

It's from some other company called Global Future.

It's not an SEC rule, it's just the company in questions rule.

So it seems like the Bill Wright tweet from earlier still applies as to the actual window allowed unless you have an SEC doc that's from Tesla?

What, I'm Voldemort now?

Right, some companies do like Global Future City Holding Inc. (the “Company”) which is who you linked to and it appears to be taken on by them, not a requirement of the SEC:



I have not found a similar document/ window for Tesla.

Tesla 2019 language:

Stock Transactions

Insider Trading Policy, Share Pledging and Rule 10b5-1 Trading Plans

Tesla has an insider trading policy that prohibits all of our directors, officers and employees from, among other things, engaging in short sales, hedging of stock ownership positions, and transactions involving derivative securities relating to Tesla’s common stock.

Haven't found the referenced plan...

 

[Knightshade]

I did up thread.
If he will eventually sell and if the capital gains tax rate will increase in the future, Elon is better off taking cap gains now with the lower rate and resetting the basis on his shares to reduce the amount the higher tax rate applies to.

More tax now, less tax overall (ignoring inflationary effects).

If the rate stays constant, it washes out in the end.

If he wasn't planning to sell LT shares for many years, wouldn't shifting the state tax to TX instead of CA likely outweigh any LTCG increases? And the state rates already exist, while an LTCG increase is only speculative.

 

[Lessmog]

Holding period over in few weeks, early investors gonna unload.
Options etc available after 5 days, so people are waiting

Right now Rivian is trading without any market friction, it's skating on ice

Now that would be a REAL breakthrough!

 

[mongo]

If he wasn't planning to sell LT shares for many years, wouldn't shifting the state tax to TX instead of CA likely outweigh any LTCG increases? And the state rates already exist, while an LTCG increase is only speculative.

I thought CA doesn't have clawback on capital gains for normal stock after change of residence. If so, TX rates are in effect.

 

[StealthP3D]

So we know Elon planned to sell a chunk of shares (exercise options, then sell...whatever he technically did) a couple of months ago, so what was the point of his poll on Twitter aside from gauging public sentiment about what he should do with his shares? Tipping off that he was about to sell some shares, so his informal poll suggesting he might sell would blunt the news of the regulatory filings where people are "surprised" Elon sold off millions of shares of Tesla, where a lot more downward pressure on the stock price may have occurred?

And does any of this run afoul of his agreement with the SEC? I honestly don't care too much either way, but I just want to understand the logic in what he's done lately.

I don't think anyone on the outside can claim to fully understand the dynamics at play between Elon and the SEC except to say that Elon bitch-slapped the SEC good and they ran off with their tail between their legs. It appears that he has something on them (not too surprising as they are a corrupt agency) and they've learned not to mess with Elon over petty or nebulous things. My best guess is they won't act until they think they have a strong case and then they will reluctantly have at it with their best effort. It will be an interesting showdown but not the kind of thing that particularly worries me as an investor.

Worst case scenario, fines and sanctions, best case scenario: Elon miraculously cleans up the filth that is the SEC.

 

[insaneoctane]

Part of Elon’s reason for selling is to have a high tax bill to show he pays his fair share in taxes. By selling low cost basis shares, he can pay the highest amount in taxes while still retaining as many shares for control of Tesla as possible.

Likely. Maybe he doesn't plan on selling any more for a long time and sees the US taxation trend as becoming less favorable in the future.

 

[Nocturnal]

I don't think anyone on the outside can claim to fully understand the dynamics at play between Elon and the SEC except to say that Elon bitch-slapped the SEC good and they ran off with their tail between their legs. It appears that he has something on them (not too surprising as they are a corrupt agency) and they've learned not to mess with Elon over petty or nebulous things. My best guess is they won't act until they think they have a strong case and then they will reluctantly have at it with their best effort. It will be an interesting showdown but not the kind of thing that particularly worries me as an investor.

Worst case scenario, fines and sanctions, best case scenario: Elon miraculously cleans up the filth that is the SEC.

The SEC is full of former, or soon to be, Wall Street types and execs. Are they really going to go after Elon so aggressively that their buddies would be worried about the skeletons in their own closets? Probably not. Best to have the appearance of enforcement with some "token" fines and the like.

 

[2daMoon]

Holding period over in few weeks, early investors gonna unload.
Options etc available after 5 days, so people are waiting

Right now Rivian is trading without any market friction, it's skating on ice

If you should go skating
On the thin ice of modern life
Dragging behind you the silent reproach
Of a million tear-stained eyes
Don't be surprised when a crack in the ice
Appears under your feet
You slip out of your depth and out of your mind
With your fear flowing out behind you
As you claw the thin ice
- "If you don't know the song, you don't know Rock music )

+ Wishing all EV companies the best, but market Cap seems absurd and should come back to reality.

Please, Tull me more.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

I can’t stop laughing to myself over the valuation of all of the new EV darlings……market just assuming anyone can replicate Tesla’s margin while ignoring the fact that none of them are replicating Tesla’s vertical integration. They all miss the obvious caveat that Tesla was able to grow with no pricing pressure in its first 5-7 year. Every new EV auto maker will face pricing pressure since they have to compete with Tesla who enjoys economies of scale.

 

[mongo]

I can’t stop laughing to myself over the valuation of all of the new EV darlings……market just assuming anyone can replicate Tesla’s margin while ignoring the fact that none of them are replicating Tesla’s vertical integration. They all miss the obvious caveat that Tesla was able to grow with no pricing pressure in its first 5-7 year. Every new EV auto maker has to keep on pricing.

Tesla's benchmark was ICE.
New EV's benchmark is Tesla (and ICE, but you know what I mean)
The momentary saving grace is Tesla is production limited with a long wait time.
However, this will
1. Reduce with Austin and Berlin
2. Supress other car sales as people hold onto their vehicles a little longer to get a Tesla.

 

[HG Wells]

I can’t stop laughing to myself over the valuation of all of the new EV darlings……market just assuming anyone can replicate Tesla’s margin while ignoring the fact that none of them are replicating Tesla’s vertical integration. They all miss the obvious caveat that Tesla was able to grow with no pricing pressure in its first 5-7 year. Every new EV auto maker will face pricing pressure since they have to compete with Tesla who enjoys economies of scale.

AND pricing pressure from companies like BYD as they expand to Europe and US.

 

[Nocturnal]

I can’t stop laughing to myself over the valuation of all of the new EV darlings……market just assuming anyone can replicate Tesla’s margin while ignoring the fact that none of them are replicating Tesla’s vertical integration. They all miss the obvious caveat that Tesla was able to grow with no pricing pressure in its first 5-7 year. Every new EV auto maker will face pricing pressure since they have to compete with Tesla who enjoys economies of scale.

And they won't have the same loyal fanbase. Most of the people praising Rivian and Lucid, don't really LOVE those brands so much as they want to not like (or just hate) Tesla.