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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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Rawlinson himself has stated he is not a software guy, scarcely knows anything about software, and is letting his teams try to figure out the software side. This is the biggest thing that is going to doom Lucid.

Meanwhile Elon comes from a software, not hardware background. Software is 95% of Tesla's competitive advantage, the other 5% is the Supercharger network. It's a lot easier to find talent that can design a car than talent that can design software. This is why Silicon Valley is so perennially underappreciated by Wall Street types who think you just wave a magic wand and iOS comes out or something. Software has always been the real advantage, Tesla has it and everyone else like Lucid and Rivian plus the legacy auto types do not.

Lucid has a tough row to hoe, not only because they literally chose to copy the Tesla plan exactly more than a decade later and make the Model S again except not as good, but because their strength is in commodity hardware and not highly competitive and specialized software. Even Rivian has an easier road ahead because at least Rivian picked market segments which aren't already completely saturated like Lucid did.

Another aspect of a software background contributing to Tesla's success is the how that background is applied to solutions based upon logic, simplification (reducing the footprint of code), and addressing potential problems using a State Machine to identify every possibility to be considered. These techniques have all been applied in Tesla's factory design, vehicle design, and more throughout the rise of Tesla.

By comparison, working from the mindset of a coder offers myriad advantages over those running a business with only the skills of an accounting, engineering, or business background.

Though being an engineer, understanding money, and understanding physics while also being a software guy offers Elon a significant advantage over any of those individually.
 
Also said, in May 2013, maybe in the far future:
I'm fully aware of both the theoretical arguments against dividends, and Tesla/Musk's longstanding general views on them. I share those views, and add in other specific ones to do with US and UK taxation that make me - as a generality - agin Tesla paying a dividend.

However the evidence is alo there that rational specific reasons for Tesla to pay a dividend have overriden the more general ones against paying a dividend, such that Tesla has paid one, i.e. the share split that was effected via a dividend process. So if there is a good reason then Tesla have shown in the past they will do it.

And that is why I am only pointing out what is in essence a nominal 1c/qtr divvi might have sufficient good reasons in support of it, that it might be done, and that it would likely not need prior shareholder approval as it is a board decision.
 
Rawlinson himself has stated he is not a software guy, scarcely knows anything about software, and is letting his teams try to figure out the software side. This is the biggest thing that is going to doom Lucid.

Meanwhile Elon comes from a software, not hardware background. Software is 95% of Tesla's competitive advantage, the other 5% is the Supercharger network. It's a lot easier to find talent that can design a car than talent that can design software. This is why Silicon Valley is so perennially underappreciated by Wall Street types who think you just wave a magic wand and iOS comes out or something. Software has always been the real advantage, Tesla has it and everyone else like Lucid and Rivian plus the legacy auto types do not.

Lucid has a tough row to hoe, not only because they literally chose to copy the Tesla plan exactly more than a decade later and make the Model S again except not as good, but because their strength is in commodity hardware and not highly competitive and specialized software. Even Rivian has an easier road ahead because at least Rivian picked market segments which aren't already completely saturated like Lucid did.
I had agreed with all of this up until v11 software. What they did to the UI is unthinkable. I really have no opinion between the two different operating systems, but they jacked this up. It went from functioning like an iphone (which I don't have) to a child's play toy.
 
I'm fully aware of both the theoretical arguments against dividends, and Tesla/Musk's longstanding general views on them. I share those views, and add in other specific ones to do with US and UK taxation that make me - as a generality - agin Tesla paying a dividend.

However the evidence is alo there that rational specific reasons for Tesla to pay a dividend have overriden the more general ones against paying a dividend, such that Tesla has paid one, i.e. the share split that was effected via a dividend process. So if there is a good reason then Tesla have shown in the past they will do it.

And that is why I am only pointing out what is in essence a nominal 1c/qtr divvi might have sufficient good reasons in support of it, that it might be done, and that it would likely not need prior shareholder approval as it is a board decision.
Sure, context matters.
token dividend to hobble shorts != regular dividend due to 'excess' profits != share dividend to implement a split
 
Question for the hive mind:. Has any other company, with a significant market cap, had as high of an operating margin as Tesla?

Or to say it another way: What is the highest in recent history?

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Edit: stupid typo
For smaller example: Ferrari (RACE) has had a >50% Gross margin for the past years since it was independently reported. We'll see what happens withe the new SUV and EV's coming. That is a car company, of course.
For larger ones: The poster child is Apple (AAPL) that regularly is around ~40%.
There a number of others, mostly not ones that are consistent, the ones that are are mostly high tech, including a handful of high tech medical ones, but those do not have a long track record.

Tesla stands alone among very high growth, highly positive Free Cash Flow, high Gross margin industrials. I have yet to find any examples from the last hundred years. I haven't investigated deeply, so I would not be astonished if somebody had done that in the early 20th century. More recently, I would be surprised.
The data is available if any of us are determined to check the records.
 
GB tweet said Pepsi Semis WILL use 4680s, as best as I can tell, this is only rumor and/or hope.

However, if they do have 4680s, I will judge it as the BIGGEST thing to actually happen since model 3 was produced (maybe even the biggest news ever).
The Kato Road "Roadrunner" 4680s have to go somewhere, no?

Or is it a big thing since the Semi is expected to use another form factor?
 
For smaller example: Ferrari (RACE) has had a >50% Gross margin for the past years since it was independently reported. We'll see what happens withe the new SUV and EV's coming. That is a car company, of course.
For larger ones: The poster child is Apple (AAPL) that regularly is around ~40%.
There a number of others, mostly not ones that are consistent, the ones that are are mostly high tech, including a handful of high tech medical ones, but those do not have a long track record.

Tesla stands alone among very high growth, highly positive Free Cash Flow, high Gross margin industrials. I have yet to find any examples from the last hundred years. I haven't investigated deeply, so I would not be astonished if somebody had done that in the early 20th century. More recently, I would be surprised.
The data is available if any of us are determined to check the records.

While Ferrari (RACE) are certainly a car company, I do believe they make the very large majority of their margin from merchandising, brand licensing etc. Would be interesting to see their margin on actual cars alone.

Probably OT, pre-market, sorry...
 
As a Plaid owner, that's absolutely insane and ridiculous. "i don't like this wine, i'd rather drink Zima"
Everyone has a different opinion. Some people have more tolerance for something than others. Like if something doesn't work reliability 100% of the time, to some they rather go back to basics knowing that they work 100% of the time. Key fob vs phone key is a good example. My home link opens my garage like 70% of the time, some people rather have a clicker that works 100% of the time. Some rather have just simple cruise control without any smart features because the Tesla one slams on the brake once in awhile. Others tolerates it because they see it as no big deal vs the additional advantages you get.
 
GB tweet said Pepsi Semis WILL use 4680s, as best as I can tell, this is only rumor and/or hope.

However, if they do have 4680s, I will judge it as the BIGGEST thing to actually happen since model 3 was produced (maybe even the biggest news ever).

Would make sense, with the 50% faster charging rate we heard about from the megachargers just today. The 4680s are so much more efficient in dealing with extra charge current.
 
Paying a real dividend on a quarterly basis, however trivial (say 1c), would not normally need shareholder approval to start as interim dividends are a board perogative. Depending on the Mem & Arts of Tesla (and US law, which is not my thing) the final divvi might need to be voted on at the AGM, but not the interim ones. Paying a real dividend would tend to cause naked shorts to contemplate their risk profile and FTD evidence trail a little more thoughtfully. OK, it is not the big stick of a share split/dividend in threatening naked shorts but it might be helpful.

Also paying a 1c/qtr dividend might put additional pressure on the ratings agencies to rerate Tesla to investment grade. In one sense that does not matter to private shareholders, but it would enable those funds that have a "investment-grade-only" mandate restriction to become investors. By now they probably really want that re-rate as their comparative performance will be suffering vis-a-vis any of their peer groups who can hold. And almost irrespective of whether those funds are passive trackers, closet trackers, or actives their buying in would tend to force prices up. Whilst the buy-in is a one-time event what would be more significant imho is that thereafter they would largely tend to be fairly inactive holders and so damp volatility, and inhibit bad behaviour through better alignment of underlying incentives for more of the actors in the investment community.
Problem with the dividend is that once you start paying it, majority of the market participants will value you based on it. Last few years, we've seen hybrid models (Apple) where company is valued on growth and dividend. Yet, really small dividend would confuse many, and allow for much FUD. Hence I don't see it being useful.

I feel resource/capital allocation is the strongest skill Musk poses (best in the world), so with more money, the only limit is availability of the talent!