Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[15Peter20]

Definitely if you look at tesla in a traditional way its a out 10x over valued. PE of 300 vs 30 for a more typical auto maker. I assume it's the speculation aspect though and people are betting it grows into its valuation?

Great, new analysis. I'm selling once it drops below $950.

 

[traxila]

Looking like tech may have another tough day. This is all shaping up very nicely for earnings if tech continues to underwhelm. TSLA earnings are going to be bonkers, growth is going to be bonkers. A nice +20% snap back in a short window is always appreciated.

We should see this all reverse once the numbers are out and absorbed. Isn't that a bit too obvious tho? Everyone knows TSLA is going to crush earnings, right?

I'm purely selling BPS in the "other thread" these days, but have a couple 1/28 orders in for $1200c at cheap prices. We'll see if this is a real dip or yet another head fake.

Please consider the possibility that TSLA’s great earnings may be ignored and the stock punished anyway. Tesla has committed the sin of showing profits and suddenly its PE is not infinite but a number that can be attacked relentlessly as way too high and laughable and compared to the SP average where all the ‘great‘ companies that will sooner or later destroy Tesla are /s.

And all of these dips are ’real’. Maybe not sustained, but real.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Like spring follows winter ....so do the new members asking the same old care bear nonsense following a drop in share price.

If you don't think moving Cybertruck initial production back 2 months is a massive Earth-shattering story, well.......you're just crazy!

It's astonishing how many times we've done this dance in the doldrums between end of quarter and the earnings call. How people can see the same nonsense 80 times in a row and still worry about it is beyond me.

Selling 100 shares @$950 and converting to 1/28 & 3/17 & Jan2023 calls is going to be irresistible should the opportunity arise. Traveling today, but if this mess continues into Monday....

 

[15Peter20]

Like spring follows winter ....so do the new members asking the same old care bear nonsense following a drop in share price.

BAF!

 

[Unpilot]

If you don't think moving Cybertruck initial production back 2 months is a massive Earth-shattering story, well.......you're just crazy!

It's astonishing how many times we've done this dance in the doldrums between end of quarter and the earnings call. How people can see the same nonsense 80 times in a row and still worry about it is beyond me.

Selling 100 shares @$950 and converting to 1/28 & 3/17 & Jan2023 calls is going to be irresistible should the opportunity arise. Traveling today, but if this mess continues into Monday....

Options smoptions....nope and no thank you.

I'm still being burned by my super smart move after blowout P/D report.

 

[Drax7]

On 300,000 plus sales this last qtr they made about 3 billion non gap profit.

Given the present 4 plants they should be able to produce 2.5 million cars yearly before say 2024..

Assuming a liner relationship, that equates to 25 billion non gap profit, and
a forward p/e of 40. Cheap for a 50% grower .

if you include fsd and energy …… forget about it, the valuation
will be much higher.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Please consider the possibility that TSLA’s great earnings may be ignored and the stock punished anyway. Tesla has committed the sin of showing profits and suddenly its PE is not infinite but a number that can be attacked relentlessly as way too high and laughable and compared to the SP average where all the ‘great‘ companies that will sooner or later destroy Tesla are /s.

And all of these dips are ’real’. Maybe not sustained, but real.

We could most definitely sell-the-news this quarter, in fact I think that's "their" plan. That would of course require the first step of buying-the-rumor!

If we're at ATH going into the call, then sure I could see a selloff back to right here. But IMO there's an 80% chance we hit ATH before the month is out one way or the other. If no FOMO and no pop right on earnings, then almost certainly we see the old two week delay and get to ATH by Valentines Day. Of course there's an overall 5% chance macro inflation-end-of-days keeps us under $1200 the whole time.

This 6 week period is very new territory for TSLA and all us followers. We are now looking at margins, PE, and forward PE. The algos are gonna change quite a bit on 1/27, a LOT of uncertainty is now permanently out of the equation.

 

[Krugerrand]

We could most definitely sell-the-news this quarter, in fact I think that's "their" plan. That would of course require the first step of buying-the-rumor!

If we're at ATH going into the call, then sure I could see a selloff back to right here. But IMO there's an 80% chance we hit ATH before the month is out one way or the other. If no FOMO and no pop right on earnings, then almost certainly we see the old two week delay and get to ATH by Valentines Day. Of course there's an overall 5% chance macro inflation-end-of-days keeps us under $1200 the whole time.

This 6 week period is very new territory for TSLA and all us followers. We are now looking at margins, PE, and forward PE. The algos are gonna change quite a bit on 1/27, a LOT of uncertainty is now permanently out of the equation.

So, after completion of that extensive thought process the conclusion is:

You have no idea what happens.

 

[JustMe]

Its gut wrenching to see TSLA revisit lows that we haven’t seen since Monday

I’m looking forward to hitting $1,200 again like we did last week

 

[ZsoZso]

So, after completion of that extensive thought process the conclusion is:

You have no idea what happens.

At least, he ain't dead wrong with high conviction like many professional analysts on Wall St.

 

[traxila]

We could most definitely sell-the-news this quarter, in fact I think that's "their" plan. That would of course require the first step of buying-the-rumor!

If we're at ATH going into the call, then sure I could see a selloff back to right here. But IMO there's an 80% chance we hit ATH before the month is out one way or the other. If no FOMO and no pop right on earnings, then almost certainly we see the old two week delay and get to ATH by Valentines Day. Of course there's an overall 5% chance macro inflation-end-of-days keeps us under $1200 the whole time.

This 6 week period is very new territory for TSLA and all us followers. We are now looking at margins, PE, and forward PE. The algos are gonna change quite a bit on 1/27, a LOT of uncertainty is now permanently out of the equation.

Market corrections and true carnage don’t care about stuff like this. The big players figure they will sell everything and pick up good companies when the dust settles. The hedges specifically target stocks like TSLA. And us retails get sick and inevitably sell after most of the damage is done.

A 20% QQQ correction could easily see TSLA down 50%, fundamentals be damned. How do you justify the 50 forward PE when AAPL gets taken down from 30 to 20 trailing for example? As a PM I mean. Especially since TSLA is done! Did you get the memo? s/

I don’t think this will happen. Economy is rocking right now and seems poised to only get better if COVID wanes and people are allowed to work. Tesla’s path will not be fundamentally altered short of a true recession. Don’t see that right now.

Playing devil’s advocate. Do not want people here to put themselves in bad positions they cannot manage.

 

[fiveten]

At least we didn't open like 3% down which is what is was looking like for awhile....I'm still hoping for a green day today

 

[ZeApelido]

 

[Nocturnal]

Alright. Closed out a few things. 50 shares added and a chunk of dry powder. 1k before this earnings (and this year) is nuts.

 

[lafrisbee]

Panasonic defo retooling for 4680. I think I saw reports of CATL doing the same.

Rebuttal:
Panasonic and CATL recognised the form of the 4680 is the future even BEYOND when Tesla makes all the batteries they need. What they see is Tesla will buy all we can make NOW, and then when Tesla doesn't want them everyone else will be having their hand out for them because the form will be recognised for its advantages.

 

[Artful Dodger]

I think I saw reports of CATL doing the same.

Gali?

 

[deffu]

Cybertruck fud is working

 

[Discoducky]

Cybertruck fud is working

Reuters article headline with no actual 'source'.

Peak fud...

Exclusive: Tesla delays initial production of Cybertruck to early 2023 - source

 

[thx1139]

Reuters article headline with no actual 'source'.

Peak fud...

Exclusive: Tesla delays initial production of Cybertruck to early 2023 - source

And if it is true it is a couple of months. Rather a short delay then a bad launch. Tesla doesnt want another launch like Model 3 or refreshed Model S.

 

[Artful Dodger]

We test 1000 support level tomorrow, and breakout above 1080 by the end of the day. That would confirm the bull trend, and probably have us over 1200 next week.

$1,000 support tested in the pre-Market, and holding $1,030 support so far in the main session (w. +macros):

SP just got a nice $15 pop over 5 min from $1,031 to $1,046

Cheers!