We test 1000 support level tomorrow, and breakout above 1080 by the end of the day. That would confirm the bull trend, and probably have us over 1200 next week.
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
Seems like you will deserve a Teslaquila bottle too if this happens. Next time I am ordering 10 of them to ship to every bull here.
That was also the first time I read the concept of third party 4680s. Correct me if I am wrong but my understanding from Tesla battery day was that Tesla was going to produce all of them in house.
It all depends on macro. Next Friday is OE. If macro rebounds, so will tsla. If Market tumbles, tsla will follow suite. If Berlin permit comes in tomomorming or next week, we will see a squeeze. Austin announce seems won’t come till earning. Most time, tsla drops after earning call. If no pre er run, it might go up instead
Eh.Rueter's is reporting that the CT is delayed until 2023, according to an "inside source". If true that's genuinely disappointing, and embarrassing TBH. Hopefully they learned a lesson to not unveil new products so far from production.
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Exclusive: Tesla delays initial production of Cybertruck to early 2023 - source
Tesla Inc aims to start initial production of its much-anticipated Cybertruck by the end of the first quarter of 2023, pushing back its plan to begin production late this year, a person familiar with the matter told Reuters on Thursday.www.reuters.com
See what the update at the earnings call says. Too close to real News to get worried about leaks and rumors.
Crayon lines matter even less when the whole market is crashing.
Your time is better spent now doing TA on Nasdaq support than TSLA support.
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
Of course it is! That's why FUD is so insidious (prey's on the fears of the uninformed). Reuters are notorious FUDmuckers.
The entire point of the Kato Rd. pilot plant is to de-risk production of the 4680 cell BY TESLA! And at 10GWh/yr that pilot plant will be one of the largest battery cell factories on earth the day it opens. And since the bty cell lines are modular, capacity can be increased at Austin by multiples of that volume with each new bty line.
Cheers!
They never mentioned they would be the sole supplier to 4680.
Panasonic has openly stated that they are testing 4680 production. So we know Tesla never had the idea to keep 4680 to Tesla only production. As a matter of fact, I see Tesla asking all its suppliers to produce 4680 if ultimately, Tesla plan is to unify the format.
4680 is just a format. What’s going to differ is the chemical composition in the battery.
Don’t get me wrong. I’m a diehard tsla long and have 7 figure invested in it. I’m just making the most sense with the whole situation. If Tesla and its suppliers have already produced enough 4680 to satisfy Austin, I just don’t see so much delay on products that were designed to use them.
And you think about it, it’s not a bad thing. Austin is going to take some time to iron out all the kinks and bumps to reach full production capacity. And 4680’s eventual ramp can go hand in hand with Austin ramp. It makes no sense to have batteries sitting in storage waiting for production to use them. And neither does having a full capacity factory to be waiting for batteries.
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
It was Panasonic's unwillingness to commit the required capital to expand 2170 production at Giga Nevada in 2017-18 which slowed the Model 3 production ramp, and eventually lead to Elon stating publicly that Tesla would not make any further investments there until Panasonic got their yields up to spec. This was an unheard of public dressing down for a Japanese company, and one which Elon made as a last resort.
Even now (5 years later), Giga Nevada has not expanded beyond the initial 1/3rd of its planned footprint, and Tesla is investing heavily in battery cell production on its own in at least two different sites. The very idea that Tesla would depend upon any 3rd-party cell supply (least of which is Panasonic) is counter to all of Tesla's experience over the past 5 years, and goes against the very reason they've chosen to bring battery cell manufacturing in house: that reason is so their product rollout are never slowed again by failures on the behalf of suppliers.
This fundamentally incorrect. The 4680 is not just a fatter 2170, its a new technology. It's the tabless electrode that makes the design even possible from a thermodynamics perspective. The cooling path is fundamentally altered, now through the copper electrode to the cell end plate.
The old way was to move heat radially out the the sides of the can. This creates heating problems for larger cells, limiting there charge/discharge rates. That's why the design of a 2170 cell can not be simply scaled up to the 4680 form factor.
The chemistry is likely to be very similar, at least at the start of production (more silicon will be be added eventually, but this may change also go into 2170 cells, which will continue as long as Panasonic can make them at a competitive cost).
The additional innovation of the dry electrolyte (Maxwell DBE) further changes what is possible for the performance of the battery cell, as well as the cost of manufacturing each cell. Again, this is not chemistry, its manufacturing technology.
What’s Up With Cybertruck Reporting? | Tesla Daily w. Rob Maurer (50 min ago)
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Lots of people complaining that CT, Roadster, Semi etc are late. It’s true, but does it really matter if Tesla is growing 90%/year and decided to shift around some production? If they didn’t then I think the criticism is valid, for example if competition is losing sales and still their products are delayed, then that clearly shows that the companies are failing. As long as Tesla are growing 50-100%/year I don’t really care if product X is delayed a few years or not.
FSD is late, that really sucks. I paid for FSD, never got to use it before I sold my car. Tesla could have handled that a lot better. Fortuneately I made a fortune on trading TSLA so I am not gonna be mad, but I can see why plenty of other people are really mad.
FSD is late, that really sucks. I paid for FSD, never got to use it before I sold my car. Tesla could have handled that a lot better. Fortuneately I made a fortune on trading TSLA so I am not gonna be mad, but I can see why plenty of other people are really mad.
Yes, but they also never mentioned an external supplier supplying cells for Cybertruck.
For starters, I'm not sure if Tesla will make 4680s in China, or use external suppliers it, could be a mix of both.
Panasonic and other will be making 4680s which could be for vehicles or energy storage.
But the Tesla internal 4680 ramp is going to be faster than most external suppliers.
And with 4680 production in site in Austin, it makes sense to plan to use locally produced cells rather than externally supplied cells.
The earnings call may give an update on 4680 cell production, Cybertruck production future products, we don't have long to wait for an update.
IMO the most interesting total unknown is what will happen with Powerwall:-
- Will it migrate to 4680 or CATL prismatic, or stick with 18650 or 2170?
- Will it migrate to LFP, or stick with nickel manganese or MNC?
I don’t know folks, the media has never written an incorrect story about Tesla before.
I don’t really think this is a big issue. Todays sell off was more related to macro. Macro totally ruined the pd effect. Otherwise we would be sitting at 1200+ firmly
insaneoctane
Well-Known Member
Thinking of adding some more before this quarter's earnings... Today's drop was helpful for that. Anyone care to offer their latest thoughts of the best timing (or target) between today and earnings? Paging Nostradamus....
No. And the reason is simple. I'm sure Tesla one day would become the largest battery producer in the world.
But even on the day that they achieve that feat, it would still take them to be using most of the "world" cell production to be the largest energy company with arms in EV, storage and whatever else.
What I think it's going to happen when TSLA becomes the largest battery producer is that it's producing the most cutting-edge battery out there. However, that cutting-edge battery might not be suitable for all different kinds of application. Thus, Tesla would still source less cutting-edge batteries from other producers.
This is similar to what's happening in the semiconductor business. TSMC holds over HALF of the world market, and it has a lot to do because it caters to a lot of cutting-edge clients such as AAPL, AMD... etc. But when it comes to older techs, it rather leaves those to its competitors because that market has too small of a margin to be taking space of its labs.
TSLA 4680 production would be highly advanced and efficient. But at the same time, it would continue to source batteries that are more ideal for its partners (CATL, Panasonic... etc) to produce. To be efficient at any production, you want to simplify and produce as few products as you possibly can. This way, you can optimize the production for such products. You wouldn't want Tesla's battery factory to be producing all different types of batteries, but rather, the combo that produces the most margin.
Tesla shop is accepting Dogecoin for certain items now. Cyber whistle just sold out.
But Tesla is likely to make the High Nickel battery that Cybertruck will use.
The rest of your point I generally agree with, Tesla will be more likely to use 3rd party battery suppliers for energy storage and entry level vehicles.
Keep in mind Tesla is still targeting 3TWh of in house cell production by 2030, in addition to the cells others supply.
Currently Tesla perhaps gets 100-200 GWh of cells from external suppliers, but 2030 I can see that external supply growing to at least 1,000 GWh or 1 TWh.
So all up it is likely that Tesla plans to use north of 3-4 TWh of cells per year by 2030, they need external suppliers, because this is a stretch target.
If Austin makes cells for Cybertruck these are High-Nickel, for Model Y these are probably Nickel-Manganese, in both cases 4680 format cells with similar production equipment, but different lines for different chemistries.
dhanson865
Well-Known Member
The first time I posted Top 25 Automakers by Market Cap to show the Enterprise Value of TSLA I got mansplained by someone because they looked at the title and didn't see the Enterprise Value column way over in Col Q.
Now I'm looking at it and the difference between the TSLA market cap and enterprise value is a whopping 1.5%.
I'm guessing that difference was much larger back in the day when someone first ignored col Q.
Now I'm looking at it and the difference between the TSLA market cap and enterprise value is a whopping 1.5%.
I'm guessing that difference was much larger back in the day when someone first ignored col Q.
If true, would be a huge announcement forthcoming for earnings...
Paracelsus
Active Member
I think eventually the goal is to get everything to 4680 because the $/kwh is much lower. However 4680 cells will be production constrained for a long time and I expect powerwall will be the last product to swap over. And I expect powerwall & mega pack to move to LFP because $/kWh is more important than kg/kWh. (Although Battery day slide only showed mega pack LFP)
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