Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[SarahsDad]

To do manual Firmware updates with USB Sticks in 6 to 9 months!

Haha that reminded me of my current ordeal trying to update the Navigation maps on my wife's 2019 Jeep (which came with 2017 maps). We forget how absolutely horrendous the software process is in any other OEM. The instruction booklet is 12 pages long!

Dealerships know this and use it to convince (unsuspecting) customers to "come into the trusted dealership". It is such a contrast with Tesla you have to laugh.

 

[Knightshade]

Aloha - 2 days since last tweet- I reckon Elon is cooking something up.

The Oracle has spoken.

Didn't everyone speculate this last time Elon went to visit Larry a little over a year ago and nothing came out of it except a supercharger station on Lanai? (and the permit for that had already been filed by Elons visit anyway)

I've been to Lanai. It's nice. There doesn't need to be a 69D chess reason to visit it, especially when your buddy owns the island.

 

[Discoducky]

PSA, Sorry folks, I posted a link, then deleted it, to a youtube video that I *thought* was legit, but now looks bad/scam.

Then I noticed, there appears to many more supposed live links on youtube to the same content with the same ad banner.

 

[SOULPEDL]

Haha that reminded me of my current ordeal trying to update the Navigation maps on my wife's 2019 Jeep (which came with 2017 maps). We forget how absolutely horrendous the software process is in any other OEM. The instruction booklet is 12 pages long!

Dealerships know this and use it to convince (unsuspecting) customers to "come into the trusted dealership". It is such a contrast with Tesla you have to laugh.

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Wow, and this is 2019 tech?
Heck, I was concerned about my own 45 sec wireless firmware update, so we compressed it first.
But a 90 min update procedure above (detailed procedure not shown)... I'd be shameful. At least they suggest taking breaks.

 

[The Accountant]

Dave Lee has shared his projections over the next couple of years:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1485120411507605504

He is assuming a constant 60k per quarter increase in vehicle production. I prefer modeling it as an S curve, so an exponential increase for the next couple of years, then gradually leveling off as production reaches 10 million per year.

This makes a significant difference, for Q4 2023 Dave Lee has 720k production, my estimate is between 920k (15% per Q increase) and 1239k (19%).

Here is what I can say about Dave Lee's forecasts: He is usually conservative and he likely reaches out to his strong Tesla network for input resulting in solid assumptions.

So . . . .when I see that his 2022 and 2023 EPS estimates are HIGHER than mine, I know that I have to reach for the eraser, sharpen my pencil and start editing my forecasts.

 

[Lessmog]

Wow, and this is 2019 tech?
Heck, I was concerned about my own 45 sec wireless firmware update, so we compressed it first.
But a 90 min update procedure above (detailed procedure not shown)... I'd be shameful. At least they suggest taking breaks.

Breaks for refueling maybe? Or keeping the engine running 90 minutes?

 

[Prunesquallor]

Haha that reminded me of my current ordeal trying to update the Navigation maps on my wife's 2019 Jeep (which came with 2017 maps). We forget how absolutely horrendous the software process is in any other OEM. The instruction booklet is 12 pages long!

Dealerships know this and use it to convince (unsuspecting) customers to "come into the trusted dealership". It is such a contrast with Tesla you have to laugh.

View attachment 759144

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Well, the process with my 2013 Grand Cherokee was to pay $275 for a CD.

At least you could do it yourself

 

[traxila]

During my own lifetime there are been episodes of mass hysteria, none of which actually needed conspiracy, only ignorance and fear of the unknown.
Here are TMC we have tended to be a rational bunch, biased in favor of our passion, to be sure.
Recently we've tended a trifle towards conspiracy visions to justify negative views of TSLA.
We need no conspiracies to understand these views:
1. Auto dealers cannot be expected to be favorably disposed towards a company that does not use them;
2. Petroleum companies might not favor entities which are devoted to excluding use of fossil fuels.
3. Can anybody imagine why an operator of a gasoline vendor would favor an entity that seeks their demise?
4. Should union leaders and advocates favor entities that do not have unionized workforces?
5. Why should rating agencies favor a company that does not issue new ratable securities?
6. Why would investment bankers favor entity that does not regularly issue new securities of any kind?
..and this list goes on.

No conspiracies required. All these and more are entities that are threatened directly by the business model and plans of an entity that thrives by unsetting the status quo.

We really should stop imagining coordinated action and simply understand that many parts of the commercial world are threatened by greater or lesser extent by Tesla, SpaceX and what they represent. They need not coordinate for their common interests are obvious to all of them.

It is transparently obvious that the massive TSLA derivatives are a successful attempt to make money when conventional means will not work. Gullible, ignorant and/or greedy speculators greatly ease their efforts. Importantly institutional investors can 'innocently' engage in securities lending that lets them reduce carrying costs from non-dividend-paying security while incurring little risk.

SO, what do they need to conspire? Obviously, they do not. It's less risky to just understand their shared interests.

Every time we berate volatility, understated that volatility keeps the whole marker thriving, for the major players.
Retail ones can never thrive in this environment, if they try to play the market makers.

OK, throw brickbats! Please, please think!

Yes. Thank you!

The first requirement of a conspiracy is that it is a secret, and certainly not that is it widely known and acknowledged by millions of people.

There are no conspiracies here. It is public record for everyone to see.

 

[SOULPEDL]

Well, the process with my 2013 Grand Cherokee was to pay $275 for a CD.

At least you could do it yourself

And then another $275 (Nissan maps) needed the next year when they finished the new 202 freeway. Who ever heard of paying for something again because it's not up to date. I am eternally grateful for Tesla making this free, and then some.

I do wish it could learn that I keep rerouting Nav to my home.

 

[betstarship]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1482432138469326850

What Tesla will enable...among the entire ecosystem in a decade. Pretty phenomenal to think about the implications.

 

[jbcarioca]

Personally I think only the dumb ones get their hands that dirty. The most powerful interests simply hire modern-day PR firms (whose array of services go far beyond the antiquated term) to craft messaging, interact with media, run psy-ops online, and do other dirty work where it needs to be done.

Unfortunately many of us think that coincident actions are sufficient for conspiracy in a legal sense.
Cornell University to our rescue:

conspiracy

www.law.cornell.edu

Without going to huge detail, nothing done in coordination would be indictable unless it meets the entire definition. Most of us may 'know' there is conspiracy even though almost everything to which we refer in dismay and anger will not stand in court to satisfy those definitions. 'Collusion' is another related point that can be 'obvious' but not provable in courts.

For TSLA securities manipulation there are several more hurdles to meet, none of them easy.
This is why I point not that none of the behavior we are witnessing is likely to meet either standard.

Quoting from an old, not-very-good movie, "Sometimes the only way to win is not to play the game"
WarGames

 

[Mengy]

Here is what I can say about Dave Lee's forecasts: He is usually conservative and he likely reaches out to his strong Tesla network for input resulting in solid assumptions.

So . . . .when I see that his 2022 and 2023 EPS estimates are HIGHER than mine, I know that I have to reach for the eraser, sharpen my pencil and start editing my forecasts.

This is a scary thought, WOAH!!!!

And by scary, I mean it's a positive sign for us Tesla investors.

 

[jamaatta]

This is a scary thought, WOAH!!!!

TSLA is an extremely coiled spring, IMHO. Again.

 

[bkp_duke]

Was behind a Toyota Mirai yesterday on the I-5 in Orange County . . .

Just wanted to share my thoughts on the practical point of sharing the road with one of these cars, and why hydrogen-powered cars have some annoyances that may not have been considered before.

1) Every time the driver hit the accelerator, our car got sprayed with a misting of water. It was like being behind someone that is constantly cleaning there windshield. We could literally see a woosh of spray coming out from the tailpipe each time. It became annoying enough we zoomed past on the right and hopped in front of them and cleaned our windshield (legit needing cleaning - and he got a taste of what he was passing out to everyone else).
2) with that much water vapor constantly coming out of the tailpipe, I wondered what it would be like on the roads in a place like LA that has literally millions of cars. Would there there be a low-level fog/smog from this all the time? Would it be better or worse than what we deal with now?

 

[wooter]

2) with that much water vapor constantly coming out of the tailpipe, I wondered what it would be like on the roads in a place like LA that has literally millions of cars. Would there there be a low-level fog/smog from this all the time? Would it be better or worse than what we deal with now?

Wait until the temperature drops below freezing and these hydrogen cars are spraying a mist of ice particles over the road.

 

[⚡️ELECTROMAN⚡️]

PSA, Sorry folks, I posted a link, then deleted it, to a youtube video that I *thought* was legit, but now looks bad/scam.

Then I noticed, there appears to many more supposed live links on youtube to the same content with the same ad banner.

View attachment 759149

Same thing happened to me yesterday. Unfortunately I posted it on here and then it looked like I was doing something nefarious because the YouTube account got deleted. I’ll try to be more careful.

 

[AudubonB]

Yes. Thank you!

The first requirement of a conspiracy is that it is a secret, and certainly not that is it widely known and acknowledged by millions of people.

There are no conspiracies here. It is public record for everyone to see.

Referring to this post and at least two of @jbcarioca’s, et seq -

This sub-thread began because of a poster taking two words and, in that they are etymologically strongly related, erring in the conclusions he drew. YES - “conspire” and “conspiracy” both derive from the Latin “conspirare”, for which a literal translation is “breathe together” (quite a poetic image, no?), AND both appeared in the English language long ago (from M-W: each in the 14th c) - but in modern English “conspiracy” is NOT the nominative form of the verb “conspire”. And with that….this discussion ends.

 

[The Accountant]

Q4 EPS Estimates
Waiting on Rob and Warren - here are the EPS estimates so far:

James Stephenson expects the Def Tax Asset recognized this quarter but I excluded it from his number.

 

[nativewolf]

Unfortunately many of us think that coincident actions are sufficient for conspiracy in a legal sense.
Cornell University to our rescue:

conspiracy

www.law.cornell.edu

Without going to huge detail, nothing done in coordination would be indictable unless it meets the entire definition. Most of us may 'know' there is conspiracy even though almost everything to which we refer in dismay and anger will not stand in court to satisfy those definitions. 'Collusion' is another related point that can be 'obvious' but not provable in courts.

For TSLA securities manipulation there are several more hurdles to meet, none of them easy.
This is why I point not that none of the behavior we are witnessing is likely to meet either standard.

Quoting from an old, not-very-good movie, "Sometimes the only way to win is not to play the game"
WarGames

I could not agree more. I see many posters berating MMs and others for manipulating the stock price, this is just noise in the charts that will become the history of Tesla. Having grown up in a family of brokers all I can advice is to simply invest and not speculate and then all the daily movements and weekly movement and quarterly movements fade away into long term growth curves that overwhelm all the noise. This is not a speculators thread but an investors thread. There's a difference and as you have eloquently written this weekend, both are important. Let me add that the speculation provides critical liquidity and it is also that liquidity that provides opportunity for a savvy speculator. They are not investors though. It is not the job of the MM to be investors, it is their job to provide liquidity; to make the market. That's not as easy as some people think. It's risky and deserving of reward proportional to risk.

If any of the speculation bothers someone than my advice is to simply forgo speculation and just invest. Tesla is young company still. Just beginning a years long process of transforming sustainable energy and transportation. Just invest. I think many posters would sleep better and enjoy life more.

 

[Knightshade]

Wait until the temperature drops below freezing and these hydrogen cars are spraying a mist of ice particles over the road.

Aren't these sold pretty much exclusively in areas of California where it hasn't been below freezing in like a generation or two at least? (LA and SF)