Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[MC3OZ]

Is this price/kWh correct for LFP? I ask because this post, more than anything recently, makes me bullish on the near future of the energy market overall and by extension, Tesla Energy.
Storage cost has been the Achilles heel of renewables, for both good (and FUD-amplified) reasons for decades. Storage is needed to some extent, and storage has been painfully expensive per kWh stored.
For context, I have read a recent story about a local Montana community that passed ordinances to make wind power effectively illegal in their area - to be able to keep their money-losing coal plant open and its jobs around for the foreseeable future. That coal plant must be even more expensive than the NG combined cycle plants that ZachF quotes, given all we know about coal in general. As much as that story depressed me, this information about cheaper storage makes me believe these rearguard, anti-profit, anti-earth actions cannot stand for long. Yes local jobs are an issue, but yes, repurposing coal plants and installing wind power would create new jobs.
At least I hope they cannot stand. Fossil fuel interests are insinuated into local and state governments exceedingly deeply.
This makes me more bullish for Tesla Energy, and for those who follow me, I was already "bullish AF" since Elon listened to me and is going to flood the US market with high-desirability Model Y's* for the next year. Those Model Y's are just large enough to tempt the SUV-addled US customers into coming over to our side. Anyone else remember when this finally happened with the Prius? Eventually enough people knew someone with one that they became mainstream and a possible choice for all the non-engineering geeks.
With another million drivers giving all their friends rides and showing off the car's quiet intelligence, this anti-EV FUD loses more of its sting as its possible audience has real-world experience to fight it. And of course, with the war chest from those sales, Tesla sits even firmer in the catbird seat with new factory options for 2023. And all this is aside from the fact the Elon mentioned Tesla is chip constrained, NOT cell constrained. Fantastic for both cars and energy.

TL;DR: Was bullish for Model Y. Now bullish on Tesla Energy as well. Thank you @ZachF !!!

* I include Model 3's in this as well, but I think the Y has unique cachet for the US market and an even better profit margin. [grammar edit]

It costs BYD less than $100 kWh to make LFP cells.

Raw materials for Nickel approx $25 kWh, LFP $8 KWh, LMNO $7.5 kWh.

The DBE process removes drying ovens reducing the amount of energy needed.
Energy itself is getting cheaper, and can be generated locally e.g. Austin.

A 250 Sq Km region of North West Western Australia could generate enough annual electricity to power the world.

Now what can Robots, mining, recycling and production machinery do with all that cheap energy?

What can hydroponics do?

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Is there a consensus yet on when Berlin & Austin will be officially "open"?

Well, at least for Austin, it already is. They confirmed actual production of sellable cars has started at Austin. There's no permits preventing anything when it comes to Austin. I don't think you're going to get an official "open" announcement from Austin. Likely just a special delivery event in early March for first deliveries.

 

[Cherry Wine]

I expect there to also be some FUD this week from demand care bears about Tesla's Jan China numbers until the actual numbers come out.

XPeng, NIO, Li Auto Report Lower Deliveries in January From Prior Month

By Sam Boughedda

finance.yahoo.com

They usually ignore Tesla_China_Analyst's twitter numbers when it doesn't fit their narrative. And if his numbers are accurate and Tesla exported at least 50k, then it means Tesla's demand in China is so strong that when their competitors sales dipped, Tesla's grew. The 19k number (if Tesla exported at least 50k), is a very strong number.

I suppose they can try, but I don't think that Twitter account's numbers move markets at this point.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

I suppose they can try, but I don't think that Twitter account's numbers move markets at this point.

That's what I'm saying actually. His twitter account numbers actually show that Tesla grew local sales in Jan when all their other China competitors sales dipped. It's bullish for TSLA.

But I expect the wall st media to use the other china EV makers Jan sales dip as a TSLA demand worry.....we all know they will. So that's why I think this narrative will be out there until next week when we actual get China Jan Tesla numbers.

 

[X Fan]

Well, at least for Austin, it already is. They confirmed actual production of sellable cars has started at Austin. There's no permits preventing anything when it comes to Austin. I don't think you're going to get an official "open" announcement from Austin. Likely just a special delivery event in early March for first deliveries.

Thanks....my wife's Y is slated for late March/early April & although it isn't always ideal to get an early production model (I have a 3K X) I want her to receive an Austin produced vehicle. That aside, quarterly earnings need that Austin & Berlin push....

 

[Cherry Wine]

That's what I'm saying actually. His twitter account numbers actually show that Tesla grew local sales in Jan when all their other China competitors sales dipped. It's bullish for TSLA.

But I expect the wall st media to use the other china EV makers Jan sales dip as a TSLA demand worry.....we all know they will. So that's why I think this narrative will be out there until next week when we actual get China Jan Tesla numbers.

Ah, understood.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Thanks....my wife's Y is slated for late March/early April & although it isn't always ideal to get an early production model (I have a 3K X) I want her to receive an Austin produced vehicle. That aside, quarterly earnings need that Austin & Berlin push....

You might be disappointed then because on the earnings call, Tesla made it seem like they're going blend the production of Fremont and Austin Y's together with the same specs (with the Austin Y using the 4680 cells/structural pack which means overall less cells needed). So there would be no way of knowing if you have a Fremont or Austin made Y at the point of delivery.....and I'm sure if you tried to decline the delivery over it being a Fremont made Y, they'll cancel your order and make you pay the new/higher sale price.

I was thinking they were going to announce a Austin specific Model Y like a Plaid version or extra range version but seems not. Seems like a missed opportunity on their part but oh well

 

[TheTalkingMule]

They usually ignore Tesla_China_Analyst's twitter numbers when it doesn't fit their narrative. And if his numbers are accurate and Tesla exported at least 50k, then it means Tesla's demand in China is so strong that when their competitors sales dipped, Tesla's grew. The 19k number (if Tesla exported at least 50k), is a very strong number.

So there's a 19k figure out for January China deliveries? That's up from 12-15k previous, correct? Seems pretty bullish to me if the ratio is at all similar once exports are included. When did we get that in previous months, the 5th or so?

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

So there's a 19k figure out for January China deliveries? That's up from 12-15k previous, correct? Seems pretty bullish to me if the ratio is at all similar once exports are included. When did we get that in previous months, the 5th or so?

38% increase from first month of Q4.......after subsidies reduced and when everyone's sales dipped........It's VERY bullish for China demand IF they exported at least 50k as well for a total of 69k.

Likely next Tues/Wed is when we get the local/export numbers

 

[TheTalkingMule]

I was thinking they were going to announce a Austin specific Model Y like a Plaid version or extra range version but seems not. Seems like a missed opportunity on their part but oh well

I thought that would be cool and add a nice fat premium. But it's an opportunity and a risk. Right now we don't need to be taking risks while Austin/Berlin ramp. 99% of consumers have no clue about their cell form, best to keep it that way for now.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

I thought that would be cool and add a nice fat premium. But it's an opportunity and a risk. Right now we don't need to be taking risks while Austin/Berlin ramp. 99% of consumers have no clue about their cell form, best to keep it that way for now.

What would be the risks though that they aren't already taking in ramping Austin with 4680 Cells and the structural battery pack? Because those risks are already there.

Seems like a win win win to create a plaid or extra range version with a higher price tag with bigger margin to actually help mitigate the risks that they're already taking.

 

[Cherry Wine]

38% increase from first month of Q4.......after subsidies reduced and when everyone's sales dipped........It's VERY bullish for China demand IF they exported at least 50k as well for a total of 69k.

Likely next Tues/Wed is when we get the local/export numbers

As far as I can tell, there were 7 ships departing SHG in January 2022 that we know of, and there were 10 ships departing SHG in October 2021 that we know of. October export numbers were 40,666.

EDIT: Also, time spent loading per ship: October 2021: 1.16 days. January 2022: 1.79 days.

 

[MP3Mike]

So there would be no way of knowing if you have a Fremont or Austin made Y at the point of delivery..

Of course you would know in advance. It will be right in the VIN they assign you.

 

[15Peter20]

38% increase from first month of Q4.......after subsidies reduced and when everyone's sales dipped........It's VERY bullish for China demand IF they exported at least 50k as well for a total of 69k.

Likely next Tues/Wed is when we get the local/export numbers

Oh gods, not another blowout Q1. I’m still hurting from the SP’s reaction to the last one.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Of course you would know in advance. It will be right in the VIN they assign you.

Ah that's right, it'll be in the VIN.

But I would still imagine Tesla will be more forceful in not letting people decline taking delivery just because they're upset they're getting the Fremont Y instead of the Austin Y.

 

[mongo]

As far as I can tell, there were 7 ships departing SHG in January 2022 that we know of, and there were 10 ships departing SHG in October 2021 that we know of. October export numbers were 40,666.

EDIT: Also, time spent loading per ship: October 2021: 1.16 days. January 2022: 1.79 days.

More time loading you say?
Could they be ... Glovis?
As seen previously on this thread...

TradeWinds, a site that tracks global shipping, initially reported the partnership. The site said that it is the largest contract Hyundai Glovis has signed with a single carmaker in its thirteen-year history in the sector.

Tesla signs one-year, $422M contract with Hyundai Glovis to ship Giga Shanghai exports

 

[Featsbeyond50]

You might be disappointed then because on the earnings call, Tesla made it seem like they're going blend the production of Fremont and Austin Y's together with the same specs (with the Austin Y using the 4680 cells/structural pack which means overall less cells needed). So there would be no way of knowing if you have a Fremont or Austin made Y at the point of delivery.....and I'm sure if you tried to decline the delivery over it being a Fremont made Y, they'll cancel your order and make you pay the new/higher sale price.

I was thinking they were going to announce a Austin specific Model Y like a Plaid version or extra range version but seems not. Seems like a missed opportunity on their part but oh well

Sounds good to me. My Y delivery date just got pushed back from March to May which gives me hope of getting an Austin Y. Maybe a slightly improved chance of getting some kind of Build Back Better rebate too.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

As far as I can tell, there were 7 ships departing SHG in January 2022 that we know of, and there were 10 ships departing SHG in October 2021 that we know of. October export numbers were 40,666.

EDIT: Also, time spent loading per ship: October 2021: 1.16 days. January 2022: 1.79 days.

I haven't been tracking the ships the same way I've used simply because the past few months have shown the # of ships hasn't been the sole factor and like you pointed out, the day to load can change number dramatically. The ship trackers also continue to say, there would be ships missing.

Plus what @mongo just posted. So for me personally, it's better to track other pieces of anecdotal evidence. Wu Wans videos have faults, especially in prior months because he was only going to the Shanghai factory a couple times each month. But in Jan, he's been there very often so it gives a bit of a clearer picture.

 

[bkp_duke]

NASDAQ up 100+ points in the past 90 minutes, TSLA flat.

Nope, no manipulation here, move along, nothing to see.

 

[Singuy]

Google did very well with earnings, more good news for the QQQ.